The Penn Relays Mailbag

By etrain11

We are closing in on what will hopefully be an awesome weekend of track and field action. So I've taken the time now to answer some questions in another mailbag post! Some of these questions are made up by me and others are made up by me, but don't worry the responses are also made up by me!

"Etrain, you completely dodged the individual predictions this week! I can't let you get away with that, who you got this Friday night?" - train e

Alright, fair enough loyal reader. I'll give this my best shot. For the record, I think Ritz will be the top PA miler. I'm almost positive. As for a time, that's a bit trickier. It's hard to imagine him running much slower than 4:12ish considering his recent races, but if things turn tactical, it's in certainly in play. I'm also a bit concerned that if the race is too bunched, he may be a bit uncomfortable in the pack. He does his best running when it's fast and he can stretch out a bit.

All that being said, I'm thinking this race is a fast one and so I'm going to pick to run 4:10 which would be the fastest PA mark in a long time (Spooner in 04 maybe?). 

As for the 3k, this is another tricky pick. I tend to be off on my predictions for this event each year. It's important to remember that, while it may be spring, it's still fairly early in the season and these guys are aiming to peak for the end of May. So often times the guys I've thought would assert their dominance during this meet in the past (Ross Wilson 2014, Ben Furcht 2009, etc) aren't always the ones who come with gold. But then there are also cases like Mark Dennin in 2008 where just the opposite is true. Off the top of my head the top PA runner at Penn in the 3k hasn't ended up winning the state title at the end of the year since 2008 when Dennin did it. 

My gut says that Mall Cop Kevin James is taking this one. It seems like he is in great shape (big PR at 800m after indoor PRs in all his main events) and there's a little bit of extra pressure to get it done now that his team decided to pass up the DMR. That could be good pressure or bad pressure I suppose, but I think KJ will respond. 

Hockenbury is another guy who could certainly win it for PA. He established himself nicely in the speed department with his 4:20 last weekend and is hungry for another shot at the 3k after indoors. This race probably equates closest to the Yale Invite in terms of crowds and talent: that's a race that Hock ran superbly in this indoors. Plus you add in some Dom Deluca comparisons and boom, you have a strong case for Hock. 

Brophy is another guy I could see taking the W. He and KJ had an epic dual at CRN and he will be looking to flip the script on that finish this go round. Brophy, by PR, is one of the slower names in the field but it's hard to count him out after watching him set the Hershey course ablaze this XC season. There will be at least one race this year where he tears up the track and obliterates his PR. Maybe this is it? 

Of course Brophy may be running the 4x8 earlier that day which leaves the door open for my pick: Casey Comber. Kids due for a moment and he does his best racing against out of state fields and Jake Brophy. He's gotta make sure he doesn't fall asleep in the middle of the race or fall victim to any sudden surges, but I think if he's in it at 800m to go, he can earn top honors for PA.

"Who loves Craig Lutz the most?" - Sean

For those of you who don't know, Craig Lutz came across the blog in a Google search, found a couple Zat posts and tweeted about it. Considering that Zat was on the critical side of things, I was surprised to see that Lutz still called the blog "pretty solid".

My goal for Penn Relays weekend is to get the man a shirt. I may even cut off the sleeves ahead of time for him. Meanwhile Zat owes him a burrito and Fox has odd, inexplainable resentment so they are out. Caleb is rooting for him and Evan was mildly aroused. Sean was willing to personally buy the shirt for him. 

Tough call, I'll let the readers pick this one.

"Train, saw your Jenkins and Ches post. Way to try and write an NCAA post as soon as an out of state NCAA runner finds the blog. Using your newfound knowledge, what do you think will happen with Oregon this weekend at Penn?" - Rett Lix

As many of you probably know, I'm a huge fan of the ducks. I own a singlet, sweatshirt, hat, other sweatshirt, t-shirt and long sleeve shirt rapping the U of O. So naturally I'm pumped to see them race for the first time since 2010 when I was at Penn and they went for the triple (and would have gotten it if it wasn't for the stud work of Robby Andrews). That year Oregon was stacked as well (is there a year they aren't?) and the big talk going in surrounded their 4xMile and if they would chase the 16 minute mark for an average of sub 4 for 4 legs, something no college team has ever done. When I got Andrew Wheating's autograph after the DMR on Friday, I asked him if we would witness sub 16 on Saturday and he just sort of laughed and avoided the question.

That's because Wheating (a 3:30 1500m when all was said and done) didn't end up on the 4xMile. They didn't need him to win that relay (they had future NCAA champs Mac Fleet and Matt Centrowitz) and they wanted the sweep. So a sub 16 shot was gone, especially once things turned tactical.

But this year is different, because this year they aren't going for the sweep. They don't have a 4x8 entered and the 4xMile is loaded. Think about it: Geogehan, Jenkins, Cheserek and Gregorek? Plus Winn, Elkiam, Alexander, Praekel and probably a ton of other dudes I'm forgetting with sub 4 credentials. Note: Winn is in the open mile which more than likely means they will be completely stacking that 4xMile considering Winn is an NCAA qualifier. 

If things get too tactical early, record attempts are out the window, but if things stay honest ... Look out. Georgetown had a killer set of milers indoors and they will be in this field hopefully thinking they can chase sub 16. Throw in Nova and Stanford and you have a potentially one of a kind set up.

And for the record, Ches is a beast and has fantastic burst, but I honestly think Jenkins time is coming. Don't be surprised if he steals the show this weekend with a huge leg somewhere on the 4xMile.

"What relay will PA place higher in: the DMR or the 4x8?" - I'm out of creative names, it's still me guys 

This is another tough question. You guys are really working hard on making this tricky for me. PA is ranked much higher in the 4x8 and we also just have more teams involved in that relay than the DMR so from a probability stand point it makes sense. I think Pennsbury is also PAs best relay squad and DT West is PA's highest upside squad.

But I'm going DMR here. This event tends to be flukey and historically speaking PA has really delivered in this event. The last time I was at Penn in 2010, a bunch of the favorites sort of flamed out and suddenly Our Lady of Good Counsel was pulling the upset. In 2009, our Upper Dublin squad somehow pulled out a win over the Rosa twins and West Windsor. In 2011,CB South almost topped the heavily favored boys from CBA. I've got a feeling that some PA team has a huge day in the DMR. Don't ask me which one because I have no idea, but one of those teams is gonna surprise.

And when Penncrest wins the COA remember that, as usual, I'm always wrong.

Seems like an appropriate note to end on. Stay classy kids.

-train