etrain Mail Bag: PA's best weekend ever?


“Between Baldwin, Henderson and other great meets, was this past weekend the best non-championship weekend in state history? I mean some of these times were incredible” – Jarrett Felix

Great question self, and, since I thought you might ask this, I’ve taken a look at some numbers to break down. As some of you probably know I keep an unofficial PA All-Time list[1] and I had to do a ton of re-writing recently to that thing after the craziness that was spawned last weekend. Let me throw some numbers at you[2]:

Last weekend featured the #5, #13, #14, #25, #35, #37, #38 and #40 All-Time individuals in the history of the state for 3200m. It also featured #22, 46 and #63 for the 1600m and #21, #47, #62 and two more at #87 in the 800m. Those marks don’t even count the guys who went faster at other points in their career and, therefore, didn’t move on the list (Lewis’s 1:51 would be in the top 25 or so and Ritz’s 3:50 for 1500m would translate to a top 5ish mark). Brophy became the first Junior that I know of to clock sub 9 with Dahl becoming the first soph I know of to run 9:02. In my entire known history of the state. Peretta was responsible for two of those times by himself. And these numbers don’t even account for the marks put up by guys like Hoey, Emmanuel, Eddinger, Gunzenhauser, Heinauer and Curtin who all broke my 9:20/4:17/1:55 cut-offs.

 It’s setting up to be a phenomenal state meet and hopefully a pretty cool meet of champions set of races as well.

 
“Who are the top AA 4x800m contenders this year?”parunning

 I’m glad we get to discuss this question, because this is a race that I have been pretty up in the air about favorites wise. Last year the event winner was Washington with Wyomissing, Boiling Springs and Schyulkill Valley also finishing among the top teams (the last three all being from D3).  It’s my understanding that Washington graduated some key pieces and probably won’t be in the mix again[3]. Wyomssing returns some key legs like Kyle Shinn and Jack DiCintio, plus a stud frosh in Cullen (more on these freshies to come) but they do lose Andrew Miller who was an unreal anchor leg and 400m individual state champ. Plus, I’m not sure if they are going to go all in on the 4x8 this year when they have such strong individuals in the 32 and 16 (events that make it really hard to double with the 4x8). Meanwhile Boiling Springs loses Jon Goodson who was a 1:54 man last year and was a real game changer. I’m not sure what SV lost, but they do still have Clay Stabolepszy who just ran a blazing 1:55 last week against Eddinger. That anchor leg alone makes them dangerous.

 If I’m looking at what I’ve actually seen racing wise rather than just projecting teams forward here are some of my favorites so far in no particular order:

Trinity- A really strong program that is always in the mix at states. They are led by Gross who has already thrown down a couple 1:57 type marks this season.
 
Mt. Caramel- I’m all aboard the bandwagon. Fletcher is an animal and just recently ran a 1:55 plus they have Moser, Fisher and Bartos available (all excellent during the fall with potential to translate to a nice 800 leg). More importantly, I think they have a real chance of buying in and going all in for this gold.

Mercyhurst Prep- They have been one of the best teams by time so far this spring and they have one of the best and most versatile runners in the state in Sebastian Curtin. They came together brilliantly for the stretch run during XC and now are looking poised to do something similar this spring.

Lakeland- It’s possible this relay could be two guys named Arzie and two guys named Morgan. How cool would that be? Have we ever had two sets of brothers combine for a state title in the relay? Regardless Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie are probably one of the best 1-2 punches in the state. This program has banged out 4x8s consistently and they have been on the verge of a title for a while now. The only concern is individually, Morgan and Arzie have both struggled to make the double after the 4x8. Maybe as Seniors they finally decide to skip the relay and go for individual honors. However, I doubt it. I think they are all in for gold.

A few other “sleepers”: Seneca, North East, Elk County Catholic, Minersville and Masterman.

“Will Jordan Geist break 70 feet in the Shot Put as a sophomore?”Sean

Well this is usually the time where I would turn to my excellent writer Sean Collins and ask him for advice in answering a question pretty far out of my wheelhouse … but seeing how he asked the question …

I’ll say yes. I don’t have the facts to back it up, I just kind flipped a coin and landed on optimism. Go Jordan!

“Smucker or Hoey, overall, combination between XC and track?”

I’m going to start by dodging this question to point out how amazing this freshman class is. It seems like every day a new stud is emerging from the shadows to drop a fast time. The 800m right now is crazy with Jihad running 1:55, CB West’s Claricurzio[4] splitting 1:56, and guys like Garnet Valley’s Weir emerging with a 1:58 at Central Leagues. Liam Conway is sub 4:30 and well under 2 plus Rusty K from Neshaminy dropped a 9:42 3200m at Henderson in a winning effort as well. When I was a freshman, I didn’t even own a pair of spikes and these kids are already putting my dream times to shame.

But focusing up on the question at hand this is a tough one. As people know, I thought Josh had an underrated XC campaign[5]. He’s proven himself thoroughly on the track (9:30ish at Henderson 32, 4:19 full mile, 1:58 800m) and beyond the impressive times, he is racing really well. He has won a few impressive meets and he ran an excellent anchor leg on the DMR at indoor states. Plus his best race of the XC season was at the Independent League Champs at Belmont. For a freshman to rise to the moment like that is amazing.

However, it’s worth noting that Smucker, who is posting impressive marks of his own on the track in the 2 flat/4:27 range, didn’t run indoors and probably barely trained[6] during that stretch because he was dedicated to wrestling. So it’s natural and expected for him to start behind the eight ball on the track. We won’t be able to truly judge the comparison until post districts/Henderson distance festival. Plus, in general, I’d imagine that Josh’s younger years allowed him to gain more experience, coming from a running family and likely a reasonably active 8th grade running career. I read somewhere that Smucker’s state meet 5k was only the 7th or so 5k he ever ran.

I wish we would have gotten to see these two head to head at states in XC because that was really Smucker’s defining moment. I think Josh could have been up there with him and that would give us two freshman placing as high or higher than Jake Brophy did as a freshman. And that kid is pretty good now a days (and yes, we will get to that shortly).

For now, I’d give the nod to Josh. He’s got the times and had a strong XC career, even if it didn’t feature a moment quite as special as Smucker’s 24th at states[7]. But this conversation will continue all next fall in the Chesmont league[8].

“Does Brophy have a shot at the PA two mile record by the time he graduates next year?”

I start first by admitting that, although I thought Brophy would win at Henderson, I sincerely doubted he would get under 9 minutes. My natural instinct is to hedge away from fast times unless I can truly feel it coming[9] and a time like 8:49.68[10] is still one of the most absurd marks ever run by a PA kid. Honestly, Springer’s record run in 2007 was one of my first “oh my god” moments in the sport and as a freshman in high school, that time just completely blew my mind. Now that I fully have time to wrap my head around it, the time might be even more impressive.

But with all that said, I 100% believe Brophy has a shot at this record by June 2016. A lot needs to go right, but the talent, work ethic and mental fortitude seem to be there. At this point, Brophy has already clocked 8:57, putting him roughly 4 seconds ahead of where Springer was at the end of his junior year[11]. Brophy also annihilated a state record in cross country and won a state title on the trails, something that Springer was never able to do. Plus Brophy closed in 3200m in a reported 58ish second final lap, a really impressive close considering that 9:00 is 67.5 seconds per quarter. To me, that means he could have theoretically ran even faster in a differently constructed race. Hypothetically, if you throw current Brophy in the Russell-Deluca-Wilson state championship from a year ago, I think the fast early pace from Russell and Dom sets the tone for an epic kick down from Brophy and Wilson and puts him in the 8:55-8:56 realm.

And also keep in mind that this spring isn’t even over yet and we still aren’t sure if Jake will a) run faster in the potentially loaded 3200m that I discussed briefly in my previous post or b) pursue a national meet and try and run fast against the best possible competition[12]. He’s already made a reasonable jump in fitness from winter to spring so is it absolutely crazy to think he could cut another 5 seconds off his mark this year? I don’t think so.

But there’s a flip side to this. First of all, and most obvious but most important, he needs to stay healthy for the rest of his high school career. I think Russell last year could have dipped into a faster range at a National type meet if he stayed healthy past states. Ethan Martin may have ended up sub 9 like his brother had he been able to fight off the injury bug. Who knows where Jaxson Hoey would be had he stayed healthy through XC? Really you need luck on your side in this equation and that’s something no one can predict.

Secondly, Springer was/is a faster miler than Brophy and that will matter. Springer won an indoor state title in mile as a Junior and then again as a senior. He ran sub 4:10 before all was said and done and had a reported 1:52 4x8 split early in the spring. Brophy is at 4:15 and 1:55, both fantastic times and times I think he can better, but not quite in the Springer range yet.

Most importantly, I just don’t know if the right race is coming for Brophy. I don’t see him as a guy who would go to the front and grind it out to chase a record and I’m not sure that’s how he does his best running. He’s just a fighter who hangs tough and then unleashes his kick. Keep in mind at Penn Relays, he fell out of it a bit during the late middle stages of the race before storming back with a crazy kick to earn 3rd place honors. When Springer set the record, Craig Forys, one of the best prep 2 milers ever from NJ, came to Henderson and provided the lift no one else possibly could have to get Springer over the hump. Then at Nats, basically double it with Centro, Forys, Luke Puskedra etc. being involved.

Talent is only a piece of the puzzle. They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, well Brophy is certainly prepared to chase the state record within the next 13 months, but to me, it’s a matter of opportunity.

In the mean time, let’s enjoy a fantastic stretch of running by Jake and let’s see if he can complete this excellent year with a win at states against a stacked field of hungry competitors. Keep in mind the last 2 men to go sub 9 prior to the state meet, Paul Springer and Tony Russell, both got out kicked the final 100m and ended up losing the state championship. Just sayin’.

 

 



[1] The top 50 in each event can be seen on the blog
[2] Because it’s what I do really
[3] Although last year, they came out of nowhere for me so I can’t say anything with confidence
[4] I’m sorry for the spelling, we are going to need a nickname for you …
[5] I got obliterated in the comment section for this on a regular basis, but I only cried for 45 minutes
[6] If I was him I would have done absolutely 0 running. Wrestling is a handful enough in itself and he’s just a freshman in high school. No reason not to enjoy some time off.
[7] To be fair, Josh couldn’t run in that PIAA race so it was practically impossible for him to be in a situation to top that moment short of beating Ritz
[8] And I think we have one or two readers on here from that league with something to say about that …
[9] Not to toot my own horn when I don’t have it explicitly in writing, but with Peretta you could just feel it coming in that mile
[10] Converted from Springer’s full 2 mile which I think was in the high 8:52s. I think Henderson was also a touch faster than Nationals, but he has two marks down well under 9
[11] He won states outdoors in 9:01 as a Junior, his only outdoor/xc state gold in his entire career which is amazing considering his 14:47/8:49/4:08 PRs
[12] I feel this is an unlikely future for Brophy. He strikes me as a guy who is fine finishing his season in May and resting up for XC. He probably wasn’t even going to do Footlocker this fall until he smashed that course record and practically had an obligation to us fans to throw his hat in the ring.

2 comments:

  1. If you watch the very start of the 3200m race video from Henderson you can see Sappey grab Power's arm and then Power absolutely rock him with a body check and its's awesome haha. Whoever says running isn't a contact sport is definitely mistaken.

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    Replies
    1. What the hell is Sappy thinking in that video he literally starts the race holding Power's arm lol

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