“Between Baldwin, Henderson and
other great meets, was this past weekend the best non-championship weekend in
state history? I mean some of these times were incredible” – Jarrett
Felix
Great
question self, and, since I thought you might ask this, I’ve taken a look at
some numbers to break down. As some of you probably know I keep an unofficial
PA All-Time list[1]
and I had to do a ton of re-writing recently to that thing after the craziness
that was spawned last weekend. Let me throw some numbers at you[2]:
Last
weekend featured the #5, #13, #14, #25, #35, #37, #38 and #40 All-Time individuals
in the history of the state for 3200m. It also featured #22, 46 and #63 for the
1600m and #21, #47, #62 and two more at #87 in the 800m. Those marks don’t even
count the guys who went faster at other points in their career and, therefore,
didn’t move on the list (Lewis’s 1:51 would be in the top 25 or so and Ritz’s
3:50 for 1500m would translate to a top 5ish mark). Brophy became the first
Junior that I know of to clock sub 9 with Dahl becoming the first soph I know
of to run 9:02. In my entire known history of the state. Peretta was
responsible for two of those times by himself. And these numbers don’t even
account for the marks put up by guys like Hoey, Emmanuel, Eddinger, Gunzenhauser,
Heinauer and Curtin who all broke my 9:20/4:17/1:55 cut-offs.
“Who are the top AA 4x800m
contenders this year?”
– parunning
Trinity-
A really strong program that is always in the mix at states. They are led by
Gross who has already thrown down a couple 1:57 type marks this season.
Mt. Caramel- I’m all aboard the bandwagon. Fletcher is an animal and just recently ran a 1:55 plus they have Moser, Fisher and Bartos available (all excellent during the fall with potential to translate to a nice 800 leg). More importantly, I think they have a real chance of buying in and going all in for this gold.
Mercyhurst
Prep- They have been one of the best teams by time so far this spring and they
have one of the best and most versatile runners in the state in Sebastian
Curtin. They came together brilliantly for the stretch run during XC and now
are looking poised to do something similar this spring.
Lakeland-
It’s possible this relay could be two guys named Arzie and two guys named
Morgan. How cool would that be? Have we ever had two sets of brothers combine
for a state title in the relay? Regardless Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie are probably
one of the best 1-2 punches in the state. This program has banged out 4x8s
consistently and they have been on the verge of a title for a while now. The
only concern is individually, Morgan and Arzie have both struggled to make the double
after the 4x8. Maybe as Seniors they finally decide to skip the relay and go
for individual honors. However, I doubt it. I think they are all in for gold.
A few
other “sleepers”: Seneca, North East, Elk County Catholic, Minersville and
Masterman.
“Will Jordan Geist break 70 feet
in the Shot Put as a sophomore?”
– Sean
Well
this is usually the time where I would turn to my excellent writer Sean Collins
and ask him for advice in answering a question pretty far out of my wheelhouse …
but seeing how he asked the question …
I’ll
say yes. I don’t have the facts to back it up, I just kind flipped a coin and
landed on optimism. Go Jordan!
“Smucker or Hoey, overall,
combination between XC and track?”
I’m
going to start by dodging this question to point out how amazing this freshman
class is. It seems like every day a new stud is emerging from the shadows to drop
a fast time. The 800m right now is crazy with Jihad running 1:55, CB West’s
Claricurzio[4]
splitting 1:56, and guys like Garnet Valley’s Weir emerging with a 1:58 at
Central Leagues. Liam Conway is sub 4:30 and well under 2 plus Rusty K from
Neshaminy dropped a 9:42 3200m at Henderson in a winning effort as well. When I
was a freshman, I didn’t even own a pair of spikes and these kids are already
putting my dream times to shame.
But
focusing up on the question at hand this is a tough one. As people know, I
thought Josh had an underrated XC campaign[5].
He’s proven himself thoroughly on the track (9:30ish at Henderson 32, 4:19 full
mile, 1:58 800m) and beyond the impressive times, he is racing really well. He
has won a few impressive meets and he ran an excellent anchor leg on the DMR at
indoor states. Plus his best race of the XC season was at the Independent
League Champs at Belmont. For a freshman to rise to the moment like that is
amazing.
However,
it’s worth noting that Smucker, who is posting impressive marks of his own on
the track in the 2 flat/4:27 range, didn’t run indoors and probably barely
trained[6] during
that stretch because he was dedicated to wrestling. So it’s natural and
expected for him to start behind the eight ball on the track. We won’t be able
to truly judge the comparison until post districts/Henderson distance festival.
Plus, in general, I’d imagine that Josh’s younger years allowed him to gain
more experience, coming from a running family and likely a reasonably active 8th
grade running career. I read somewhere that Smucker’s state meet 5k was only
the 7th or so 5k he ever ran.
I
wish we would have gotten to see these two head to head at states in XC because
that was really Smucker’s defining moment. I think Josh could have been up
there with him and that would give us two freshman placing as high or higher
than Jake Brophy did as a freshman. And that kid is pretty good now a days (and
yes, we will get to that shortly).
For
now, I’d give the nod to Josh. He’s got the times and had a strong XC career,
even if it didn’t feature a moment quite as special as Smucker’s 24th
at states[7].
But this conversation will continue all next fall in the Chesmont league[8].
“Does Brophy have a shot at the PA
two mile record by the time he graduates next year?”
I
start first by admitting that, although I thought Brophy would win at
Henderson, I sincerely doubted he would get under 9 minutes. My natural
instinct is to hedge away from fast times unless I can truly feel it coming[9]
and a time like 8:49.68[10]
is still one of the most absurd marks ever run by a PA kid. Honestly, Springer’s
record run in 2007 was one of my first “oh my god” moments in the sport and as
a freshman in high school, that time just completely blew my mind. Now that I
fully have time to wrap my head around it, the time might be even more
impressive.
But
with all that said, I 100% believe Brophy has a shot at this record by June
2016. A lot needs to go right, but the talent, work ethic and mental fortitude
seem to be there. At this point, Brophy has already clocked 8:57, putting him
roughly 4 seconds ahead of where Springer was at the end of his junior year[11].
Brophy also annihilated a state record in cross country and won a state title
on the trails, something that Springer was never able to do. Plus Brophy closed
in 3200m in a reported 58ish second final lap, a really impressive close
considering that 9:00 is 67.5 seconds per quarter. To me, that means he could
have theoretically ran even faster in a differently constructed race.
Hypothetically, if you throw current Brophy in the Russell-Deluca-Wilson state
championship from a year ago, I think the fast early pace from Russell and Dom
sets the tone for an epic kick down from Brophy and Wilson and puts him in the
8:55-8:56 realm.
And
also keep in mind that this spring
isn’t even over yet and we still aren’t sure if Jake will a) run faster in the
potentially loaded 3200m that I discussed briefly in my previous post or b)
pursue a national meet and try and run fast against the best possible
competition[12].
He’s already made a reasonable jump in fitness from winter to spring so is it
absolutely crazy to think he could cut another 5 seconds off his mark this
year? I don’t think so.
But
there’s a flip side to this. First of all, and most obvious but most important,
he needs to stay healthy for the rest of his high school career. I think
Russell last year could have dipped into a faster range at a National type meet
if he stayed healthy past states. Ethan Martin may have ended up sub 9 like his
brother had he been able to fight off the injury bug. Who knows where Jaxson
Hoey would be had he stayed healthy through XC? Really you need luck on your
side in this equation and that’s something no one can predict.
Secondly,
Springer was/is a faster miler than Brophy and that will matter. Springer won
an indoor state title in mile as a Junior and then again as a senior. He ran
sub 4:10 before all was said and done and had a reported 1:52 4x8 split early
in the spring. Brophy is at 4:15 and 1:55, both fantastic times and times I
think he can better, but not quite in the Springer range yet.
Most
importantly, I just don’t know if the right race is coming for Brophy. I don’t
see him as a guy who would go to the front and grind it out to chase a record
and I’m not sure that’s how he does his best running. He’s just a fighter who
hangs tough and then unleashes his kick. Keep in mind at Penn Relays, he fell
out of it a bit during the late middle stages of the race before storming back with
a crazy kick to earn 3rd place honors. When Springer set the record,
Craig Forys, one of the best prep 2 milers ever from NJ, came to Henderson and provided the lift no
one else possibly could have to get Springer over the hump. Then at Nats,
basically double it with Centro, Forys, Luke Puskedra etc. being involved.
Talent
is only a piece of the puzzle. They say luck is when preparation meets
opportunity, well Brophy is certainly prepared to chase the state record within
the next 13 months, but to me, it’s a matter of opportunity.
In
the mean time, let’s enjoy a fantastic stretch of running by Jake and let’s see
if he can complete this excellent year with a win at states against a stacked
field of hungry competitors. Keep in mind the last 2 men to go sub 9 prior to
the state meet, Paul Springer and Tony Russell, both got out kicked the final
100m and ended up losing the state championship. Just sayin’.
[1] The
top 50 in each event can be seen on the blog
[2] Because
it’s what I do really
[3]
Although last year, they came out of nowhere for me so I can’t say anything with
confidence
[4] I’m
sorry for the spelling, we are going to need a nickname for you …
[5] I
got obliterated in the comment section for this on a regular basis, but I only
cried for 45 minutes
[6] If
I was him I would have done absolutely 0 running. Wrestling is a handful enough
in itself and he’s just a freshman in high school. No reason not to enjoy some
time off.
[7] To
be fair, Josh couldn’t run in that PIAA race so it was practically impossible
for him to be in a situation to top that moment short of beating Ritz
[8]
And I think we have one or two readers on here from that league with something
to say about that …
[9]
Not to toot my own horn when I don’t have it explicitly in writing, but with
Peretta you could just feel it coming in that mile
[10]
Converted from Springer’s full 2 mile which I think was in the high 8:52s. I
think Henderson was also a touch faster than Nationals, but he has two marks
down well under 9
[11]
He won states outdoors in 9:01 as a Junior, his only outdoor/xc state gold in
his entire career which is amazing considering his 14:47/8:49/4:08 PRs
[12] I
feel this is an unlikely future for Brophy. He strikes me as a guy who is fine
finishing his season in May and resting up for XC. He probably wasn’t even
going to do Footlocker this fall until he smashed that course record and practically
had an obligation to us fans to throw his hat in the ring.
If you watch the very start of the 3200m race video from Henderson you can see Sappey grab Power's arm and then Power absolutely rock him with a body check and its's awesome haha. Whoever says running isn't a contact sport is definitely mistaken.
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is Sappy thinking in that video he literally starts the race holding Power's arm lol
Delete