The First Mailbag is Here

Thank you to everyone who contributed to this inaugural mailbag! There were some excellent questions raised this week and I will do my best to give some insightful responses. Let's get it started.

In cases where names weren't provided, I made them up.

"Mudiay or Russell?" - Sam Hinkie

Great question Sam. I know people don't exactly read this blog for basketball insights, but since its still my favorite sport on the market, I'm going to go all out on this one in a somewhat long winded roundabout way.

Let's say the Sixers get pick #1 in the draft and can take anyone my dad is of the opinion you take Okafor (in his opinion the best player) and you figure out the rest later. It goes with the theme of acquiring assets certainly. But I think really why you do it is, you need a star to build your team around. That's the point of all this tanking, to get a star. We don't know if we have one yet, so if Okafor is the best bet you have for getting a super star, you take him. 

I'm not really on board with that plan, personally because (perhaps foolishly) I'm tired of waiting around and I'm ready to start putting pieces together. If I'm picking, I'm actually in favor of taking Justise Winslow all else equal. I like his defensive ability, he has good size and strength and he seems to be developing as a scorer. Plus he played on a championship team this year and I like players who know how to win (although in the championship game it was basically Tyus Jones). Besides the Duke championship, he has multiple gold medals playing the USA junior squads. I've recently heard Winslow compared to Grant Hill, Ron Artest, Oladipo, James Harden and Coach K compared him to Dwayne Wade. That's high praise. 100% my guy.

Plus think of the puns!

I think Russell could be good, but I'm not completely sold on him (but to be fair I wasn't completely sold on Wiggins). The potential is there and the scoring potential is fantastic for a team that needs scoring. But I think I'd rather have Mudiay (even though I've never seen him actually play basketball). He's more athletic and explosive than Russell and I think his game translates a bit better to the NBA. He can contribute in a variety of ways and, if they can get his shooting going, he would be a great point guard to lead the team. I honestly also believe that Mudiay is the guy the Sixers will draft, especially if they are picking in the post Okafor/Towns 3 spot. 

What I would love to see happen (that probably never would), you throw a ton of money at Khawi Leonard and see if you can steal him. I'd also try and go after Jimmy Butler. The cap is about to shoot up, so why not overspend a little bit and try and get a young up and coming player who can play both ways and possibly be the leagues next stud. Then you draft Mudiay or Winslow or Russell, get Embiid back, the developing Noel and still have a TON of future picks to use to continue to build or trade for players if the team begins to get competitive. 

But they will probably just trade the pick for more picks and Miles Plumlee.

"Odds that Pennsbury loses the 4x8 at states?" - CR North and Bensalem haters (just kidding of course)

You can attack this one from two angles. First, you look at Pennsbury's roster and examine its potential. I really like the squad. They have the basic essentials of a championship 4x8 team: great depth (I could see at least 5 dudes sub 2), a stud anchor (Sauer has run 1:52 3 times already within the last 300 or days), and experience (Webb and Sauer have been on their last 2 state medal squads, with Sauer anchoring both. Plus they won indoor states this year so that's nice experience). I'm also intrigued by Kersten as an X factor looking forward.

The possible problems revolve around the fact that PB's two key legs (Webb and Sauer) are going to be key players in individual battles and states. Webb is going to be trying the 3200m-4x8 and that double is brutal. That being said, Webb has owned that double the last two years and Sauer made that double last year too, it didn't effect his 1:52.9 anchor. 

The other angle is, who can beat them? A lot of teams loaded up completely fresh squads indoors to try and beat PB and they still couldn't do it (Penncrest, SC, CBW, LaSalle). I'm not sure which one of those teams is taking a step forward and becoming better than the Orangemen. There are a few times with upside (Carlisle, Seneca Valley, Altoona) who never really went all in on relays indoors but have some excellent pieces. The team that may have the best shot at dethroning the champs is Downingtown West. IF they are healthy and willing to focus on the relay. I'm not sure they are speed oriented enough, but they could have 4 sub 2 guys when the dust clears in May including a couple sub 4:20 guys and a dude who finished in the top 10 at the state championships. 

Current Odds on Pennsbury losing: 10 to 1.

"Altoona or State College at districts this year?" - 6 Man

Altoona and State College is kind of an underrated rivalry. The two teams are powerhouses in their own right and share a district almost to themselves. They only have one XC team spot which makes the team title even more intriguing in the fall, but in the spring the District 6 title is always fun, adding sprinting and field events to the mix while also putting some pressure on the distance boys to throw down monstrous triples/quadruples. 

I won't pretend to have any sort of intimate knowledge of the sprint/field dynamic of the title chase, but I'll give my best attempt at talking distance. Last year the final score was SC 238 and Altoona 206. When you factor in the graduation of Post, Cather (won 3 golds), Adams and Golembski (who's name I just butchered and I sincerely apologize for that), SCs hopes will likely be hanging in the balance of their distance squads ability to fill the shows of their departed seniors.

SC is a bit younger I believe which could hurt them if they are trying to get fancy with doubling. Foust appeared indoors like he had taken a strong step towards elite status and that could mean a change of fate to the tune of the Cather multiple gold level. SC has consistently churned out strong 4x8s (especially at states where they have been in the medals a ton), but Altoona has always managed to give them a run for their money at districts (it seems like 99% of the time Altoona's season best relay comes at districts). There's strong mid-distance depth on both sides, the most intriguing race may end up being a 3200m where Sunderland and Stroh (both really strong runners) would have to go toe to toe with Beyerle who was second last year in an awesome race. 

In the end, things may be decided in the 800m when George and Foust try to take down the army that State College has displayed for the last two seasons. When so much doubling and tripling is in play, I give the slight edge to the older guys from Toona, but SC is going to make it one heck of a battle.

"What do yo think the likelihood is that any of the 800/1600/3200 state records go down this year?" - Record Ralph

Now technically speaking there are multiple terms that people define as "state records". There are state meet records and all-time pa records. There is logically some overlap, but I think it's obvious the records that matter most are the All Time marks. But for the fun of the question, let's take a look at all of them in order of least likely to most likely:

4x800m AT and AAA State Meet: CB South 7:33.48 2009

This record is a really impressive one and it took A) maybe the best 800m runner in PA history, B) the greatest 4x8 field ever assembled in PA history, C) a team entirely dedicated to the state record in the 4x8 and only the state record in the 4x8. Plus it takes 4 special talents and not just one. I don't plan on seeing this record falling any time soon.

3200m AT: Paul Springer, Unionville 8:49.68e 2007

1600m AT and AA State Meet: Paul Vandegrift, Archbishop Kennedy 4:03.22 1987

These two are basically tied, but I rate the 3200m slightly less likely to fall. Springer had Craig Forys the first time, then went to nationals and had another idea race for his second sub 8:50. No one else in PA has been within 5 seconds of that mark since he ran it, despite the fact that we have had some of the best XC talents we've ever seen. 

The 16 likely isn't falling either (especially unlikely for the AA state meet record to fall), but at least I could see a situation where Ritz or someone does it in peak shape at the Dream Mile/MoC/Nationals. There's post season meets where people can and will chase the mile record, not sure the same thing can be said about the 32.

1600m AAA State Meet: Drew Magaha Upper Moreland 4:07.32 2011

This would take a magical run from someone, but I'd rate it marginally more possible than the all time marks above simply because it's slower and the guy who is the defending champ has a PR pretty close to it from about 2 years ago.

4x800m AA State Meet: Lewisburg 7:44.44 2004

This time isn't particularly fast so there's a chance a AA team could pop up and steal in between now and the state meet but A) I have no idea who that team could possibly be and B) I'm not seeing any 1:51 solo anchor legs like Chris Spooner was back then. But 7:44 isn't bananas at least and I certainly didn't see Dom Perretta emerging as a 1:52.7 guy last year so why can't another similar guy come out of the woodwork?

Plus 7:44.44 in 04? This record can only live forever.

3200m AA State Meet: Chris Dugan Southmoreland 9:04.09 1997

3200m AAA State Meet: Ross Wilson CR North 8:56.29 2014

This was another toss up. The 3200m mark is 8 seconds slower for AA, but the field is projected to be less deep. The AAA record was just broken last year, so it's not like the thing is impossible and we have a stacked field set to toe the line again. I could see Hock and Molino maybe pushing the way towards 9:04, but that's a really fast mark that only 25 or so dudes have done in PA history. The AAA field is marginally more likely to do it, but there is a reason that old record lasted so long. You need the right mix of weather, tactics and talent. But PA may have it this year.

You know what that leaves? The 800m. Maybe it's because of the onslaught on indoor records or the pair of outdoor "records" or the fact that I can't stand that Magaha's record is the undisputed record even though Grift ran 1:48.8 as well (I know it was hand time, but technically we don't KNOW that it would have been slower FAT we just highly suspect it. Remember 1:48.8h is probably rounded up from like 1:48.7 and change and Magaha's coach happened to stop his watch at 1:48.82 exactly by coincidence meaning that hand times and FAT times can potentially line up.

So basically I'm kinda hoping that Lewis or someone just blasts a 1:48.5 and we are done with it.

Here's how I'd order those 800m records that are left:

800m AA State Meet: Paul Vandegrift 1:51.96 Archbishop Kennedy 1987

800m AAA State Meet: Tom Mallon CB South 1:49.31 2010

800m PA AT: Drew Magaha Upper Moreland 1:48.82 2012

The AA Meet Record is the slowest and a fresh, motivated Perretta could be a 1:51.96 guy. That being said, 1:51 is fast and having some company would be nice. Not sure I see another 1:52 type guy in AA as things currently stand. 

The AAA meet record should certainly be on watch. Throw Lewis, Graca, Sauer, Brehm, Wisner, Samuels, etc in a race together and all they need to do is hit about a second faster than they did indoors? Sounds pretty good! But Francis didn't do it last year after setting the record indoors, we didn't get anywhere close in 2013 even though it was a fantastic field and even peak Magaha couldn't get close. The message here: it's just one meet and you need things to click in a lot of ways. Who knows what all these guys racing schedules will be (but I'm guessing busy). It took a focused Mallon who had already run under 1:50 3x prior to the meet to get it.

Which brings me to the overall state record. You can get this at any meet, with any competition (i.e. Add Ritz or a rabbit) and fresh legs. Plus Magaha's record came a random night in early spring with almost no one close by right after he had mono! That speaks to how absurdly talented Magaha was, but it also means he himself could have probably broken that record, so why can't a health focused group of some of PA's all time best?

"Does Lil Hoey get the 4:14 national record? If so, by how much?" - West Side Reppin

Since we are talking records already, let's crunch a bit more numbers. First, it's important to note that the national frosh record no longer belongs to Craig Miller (I think I failed to clarify this in my previous post). In 2013 Minnesota frosh Eli Krahn ran 8:58 and then doubled back the next day to run 4:09.38. I'm 100% serious. 

As for Craig Miller's PA frosh 1600m record (which I guess is a thing?) that's certainly in play. Craig Miller didn't break 4:20 for the first time until league season roughly 2 weeks out from states. Josh just did it for the second time before we hit real spring (counting his indoor DMR split). 4:19.97 for the mile coverts to roughly 4:18.5 for 1600m, meaning to get to Miller's 4:14.26, Hoey needs an extra 4 and a quarter seconds in about 8 weeks. It's very doable. I think it mainly comes down to how his 1600m goals line up with the teams potential relay prowess (future 4x8 contenders and one of PAs best teams for Penn in the DMR on paper). If he runs the 1600m in the state final like Craig, the record chase is on.