The Men's 800m was a pretty exciting final. The heavy favorite was Mo Aman, the defending world outdoor champion at 800m, but lurking in the final were a couple of Polish harriers with a little home crowd advantage, which can go a long way. Over the second 400m the Poles teamed up with Lewandowski leading from Kszczot but Aman managed to throw down a nice kick over the final 100m to launch himself away from Kszczot to take yet another Gold. Aman has put together quite the resume for himself with a pair of wins over Rudisha, a 1:42.37 PR and now another Gold medal at a world championship. Lewandowski ended up DQd (a lot of DQs coming this weekend for reasons that I can't quite understand) which meant Andrew Osagie of Great Britian jumps up and grabs bronze. He was originally just .01 off of Lewandowski in the pre-DQ finish.
The women's 800m was quite the achievement for PA! Chanelle Price grabbed the world indoor gold leading from the gun in the race and holding her own against some of the other best in the world types. It was a bit of a weaker field than those she will see outdoors, but Price took a big step into the world elite with this dominating win. She took things from the gun and led them out in about 27.8 and then 57.8 which was definitely quick. It was a tad rich for most in the field but Price, who has been racing like this her entire career, was very under control and poised at the front. The tired field was exhausted from that lap and didn't quite rally on the third lap, which was slow. They swung to lane 3 but couldn't get by as Price, rested from the 3rd lap where everyone else was working much harder, had plenty left to hold off all comers in the final 200m and take home the gold. Her time of 2:00.09 may be her fastest ever indoors or out (looked it up, it is). Pretty impressive victory for a woman who had never before made a Senior US World Championship team.
The men's 3000m was a stacked race that included perhaps the two best American distance runners of all time including defending champion Bernard Lagat and olympic silver medalist at 10,000m Galen Rupp. The last 1k of the race was where things really got going (2:22 for the 1k for the leaders) and the boys were blazing around the track. Lagat had perhaps a little bit too much in pack jostling to do over the final laps and ultimately he couldn't quite kick by the surprise victor: Caleb Ndiku. Ndiku held off a late charge from Lagat closing in 26 for the final 200m. The Ethopian studs Dejen Gebremeskel and Hagos Gebrhiwet couldn't hold on to the fast close, despite having the best strength in the field. Gebremeskel ended up the bronze medalist and Hagos ended up 5th behind Galen Rupp, who just missed another medal for his awards stand. Rupp was in the race the whole way but the 3000m proved to have too fast of a close for Rupp to handle, although he performed quite admirably under the conditions. Considering Rupp is a true 10k guy, he really hung well on the final lap of this race.
It's a huge breakthrough for Ndiku who is coming off a massive spring where he dropped his 1500m PR to 3:29 for Kenya. Unfortunately, because he is from Kenya, that 3:29 still wasn't good enough to get him on the worlds team over Chebseba, Kiplagat and Kiprob, three of the best the world has seen in recent years. Ndiku was an impressive junior athlete who won world junior titles in the 1500m in 2010 and in cross country in 2010. The 3:49 miler has a PB of 13:03 in the 5k but this spring we might see that mark take a fairly large tip south.
In the women's 3k, Genezebe Dibaba did not fail to deliver. The women who smashed three separate world indoor records this Winter completed her campaign by throwing down the gauntlet in the final and winning easily. She looked completely smooth and under control running 1k splits in the ball park of 3:24-2:51-2:38. Wow. That was going to make it hard for anybody to come along for the ride and Grunewald (10th) and Rowbury (8th) were never really factors at all for the US. Rowbury hung on the longest but when things began to get going, it was Dibaba in command. Obiri, the defending champion, had a nice close over the final 200m to make the race respectable, although Dibaba was shutting it down, Obiri still finished within 2 second of the winner and took a strong silver medal for Kenya.
Day 2 of Worlds
In the women's 1500m, Kampf takes an unfortunate fall in the final, so she doesn't get to take full advantage of her surprise appearance in the finals. Aregawi completely dominates the field running away with it in a time of 4:00.61 to take the win by an unreal 6.5 seconds! Truly dominate performance, it's a shame we didn't get to see an Aregawi Dibaba battle for the ages. Perhaps outdoors we will get to see it unfold. Moser for the US was in the chase pack the whole way but couldn't quite close over the final 200m and ran a time of 4:07.84 (an indoor PR) which was good enough for just 6th place overall, about 7 tenths of a second off 2nd place. If Cain was in the race, I have to believe she could have taken down second without much issue. It would have been more of a question of how much, if it all, she could have challenged Aregawi and changed the dynamic of the race. Oh well.
EDIT #3: A slew of DQs has moved Moser up to 4th in the race now with the same mark. A lot of pushing and shoving going on in the race led to some aftermath DQs that allowed Moser to sneak up and just miss a medal. Sifuentes from Canada finishes 3rd and Embaye finishes 2nd in these most updated results.
EDIT: Ashton Eaton closed out the Hep with a 2:34 1k closing down in about 28 seconds, but unfortunately he just missed his own world record in the Hep (coming up about 1 second short in the final event). Overall Eaton gets an easy Gold and continues his dominance of the Hep indoors. I believe he has something like the top 3 or 4 times ever indoors for the Hep. Congrats to Ashton on another gold and another fantastic series of events!
EDIT #2: In the Men's 1500m, Souleiman of Djibouti led wire to wire, holding the pole position despite a few moves from the likes of Bergen and Wote. His positioning was key on the last few laps as he was able to charge up and take down the Gold against the field. Wote was able to hold on with a nice finish of his own to take second, a little ways behind Souleiman's 3:37 was his own 3:38. The defending champion and former 2012 olympic bronze medalist Iguider took another bronze is this race holding off Nick Willis on the final straight. Will Leer of the US hung in last place for essentially the whole race which was bold strategy in a world class field like this. Leer ended up moving up a decent chunk and picking off two guys in the final 40m or so but was just way too far out of it to be a factor. He finished 7th of the 9 men in the field utilizing that home stretch kick. With this event in the book, no more distance finals to come on the day, tomorrow will feature both 3ks and both 800ms!
EDIT #3: A slew of DQs has moved Moser up to 4th in the race now with the same mark. A lot of pushing and shoving going on in the race led to some aftermath DQs that allowed Moser to sneak up and just miss a medal. Sifuentes from Canada finishes 3rd and Embaye finishes 2nd in these most updated results.
EDIT: Ashton Eaton closed out the Hep with a 2:34 1k closing down in about 28 seconds, but unfortunately he just missed his own world record in the Hep (coming up about 1 second short in the final event). Overall Eaton gets an easy Gold and continues his dominance of the Hep indoors. I believe he has something like the top 3 or 4 times ever indoors for the Hep. Congrats to Ashton on another gold and another fantastic series of events!
EDIT #2: In the Men's 1500m, Souleiman of Djibouti led wire to wire, holding the pole position despite a few moves from the likes of Bergen and Wote. His positioning was key on the last few laps as he was able to charge up and take down the Gold against the field. Wote was able to hold on with a nice finish of his own to take second, a little ways behind Souleiman's 3:37 was his own 3:38. The defending champion and former 2012 olympic bronze medalist Iguider took another bronze is this race holding off Nick Willis on the final straight. Will Leer of the US hung in last place for essentially the whole race which was bold strategy in a world class field like this. Leer ended up moving up a decent chunk and picking off two guys in the final 40m or so but was just way too far out of it to be a factor. He finished 7th of the 9 men in the field utilizing that home stretch kick. With this event in the book, no more distance finals to come on the day, tomorrow will feature both 3ks and both 800ms!
New Balance Nationals Entries: PA
800m
Will Cather, Jeff Wisema
Mile
Sam Ritz
2 Mile
Ross Wilson
5000m
Colin Martin
4x800m
O'Hara, Downingtown East, State College,
4xMile
North Allegheny (Super pleasant surprise), West Chester Henderson
DMR
O'Hara, West Chester Henderson (yes it happened ladies and gents)
Emerging Elite
Billy Caldwell (Mile)
Andrew Marston, Jon Perlman (2 Mile)
CR South (4x8)
More entries still may come filing in as we get closer to the big event
Should be quite the weekend next weekend with all three NCAA championships set to go down as well. Worlds is just a nice preview of things to come!
Will Cather, Jeff Wisema
Mile
Sam Ritz
2 Mile
Ross Wilson
5000m
Colin Martin
4x800m
O'Hara, Downingtown East, State College,
4xMile
North Allegheny (Super pleasant surprise), West Chester Henderson
DMR
O'Hara, West Chester Henderson (yes it happened ladies and gents)
Emerging Elite
Billy Caldwell (Mile)
Andrew Marston, Jon Perlman (2 Mile)
CR South (4x8)
More entries still may come filing in as we get closer to the big event
Should be quite the weekend next weekend with all three NCAA championships set to go down as well. Worlds is just a nice preview of things to come!
Updates from Sopot
For those of you interested in the professional running scene, this three day stretch is the World Indoor Championships in Sopot, Poland. Today while most of us were sleeping or getting ready for school, the prelims for most of the distance finals unfolded on the track in Sopot and the US had some mixed results.
Both Gabby Grunewald and Shannon Rowbury advanced to the final in the woman's 3k, Rowbury with the last auto in her heat and Grunewald with the last time qualifier. Only 3 girls in total were eliminated during the prelims, so it's not exactly a difficult journey to the finals, but it's nice to see the US represented. The favorite in the final will be Genezebe Dibaba, the world indoor record holder at 1500m, 3000m and 2-miles. She is on a whole other level relative to this field. If things are tactical we know Rowbury and Grunewald have strong kicks, but the 3k is pretty loaded and both woman will need some fortune to snag medals on Sunday.
The men's 1500m prelims eliminate a slew of favorites from the world championship final. In Heat 1 the US's Lopez Lomong was facing off in a stacked heat and, off slow fractions, was outkicked and missed the final. Also missing the final was multiple world championship finalist Mekonnen Gebremedhin and up and coming miler Lee Emanuel of Great Britian. Tesfaye of Germany made it to the finals, he is proving to be an excellent tactician in recent years. Jakub Holusa of Czech Republic surprised for the second spot in the finals. That can happen in a kicker's race. His best 1500m ever is only 3:38 (Lomong's is 3:32) but Holusa has 1:45.12 800m speed and that got him in as a surprise finalist. He has also clocked 7:53 this year indoors for 3k as a nice Pr.
In the second heat, things were also fairly tactical. As a result, former WC silver Medalist and sub 3:30 man Silas Kiplagat was left out of the final, thus eliminating perhaps the biggest name in the field. Finishing ahead of him was Ayanleh Souleiman, a fantastic 800m-1500m type who was the bronze medalist in the WC 800m last year. Souleiman was joined by Nick Willis of New Zealand who is having an excellent indoor season. The former Michigan grad outkicked Kiplagat and Chris O'Hare (former indoor collegiate mile record holder) to get in. He also beat out former teammate Nate Brannen. Souleiman and Willis go into the final as the two clear favorites for medals in the event. Stunningly, Kiplagat's 3:39, which got him third in the heat, was also not good enough to get on time.
The final heat was quick from the gun, and that allowed Will Leer among others to pass into the final on time. Aman Wote and defending world indoor champion Abdalaati Iguider took the 1-2 auto qualifying spots and the field flooded in quickly behind them. Will Leer outkicked a slew of top metric milers like Birgen and Ozbilen and ended in 3:38.02 for third in the heat and the third fastest time of the day. Birgen and Ozbilen will join Leer as the final time qualifiers with David McCarthy, former Providence miler, running 3:39.46 and just missing Ozbilen's spot.
The 1500m final is loaded, but if Leer can race tactically sound, he has proven he has great kicking ability. There are certainly better runners in this field than him on paper, but Leer's kick always makes him dangerous. If I had to guess, in a field like this, I don't expect Leer to be in the top 5, but a lot of other big names have been eliminated so who knows what other superstars will fail to rise to the occasion.
In the women's 800m, Ajee Wilson, the young american superstar at 800m, took a surprising exit from the world indoor championship, perhaps eliminating the USA's best shot at a medal. Wilson finished her heat in 4th in 2:02.90 and needed to win her heat to get an auto bid into the 6 woman final. In Heat 3, PA's own Chanelle Price led the race nearly wire to wire and, although she just barely missed out on the win, she did run 2:01.05 and got herself into the world final! Congrats to Easton's Chanelle Price! Things should be interesting for Chanelle in final. The final isn't exactly loaded with the big names at 800m and she likely will assume the pace and command the race. If she can do that and hold off enough kickers on the last lap she should snag a medal. Price is tough to pass on an indoor track and has PRs almost across the board indoors this season. I think Price has a fantastic chance to sneak onto the medal stand in Sopot.
In the men's 8, we had a bit of a let down. Both Erik Sowinski (who I had very high hopes for) and Nick Symmonds (last year's world championship sliver medalist) missed qualifying for the finals by a decent margin. Symmonds is never ready to run fast indoors so his miss wasn't as surprising for me as Sowinski's who wasn't even close to qualifying off a 1:48 run. I like Sowinski and think he has lots of room to develop, he just needed some extra experience on the world scene.
Sowinski was in the same heat as the class of the field, Mo Aman who won the heat on the final lap outkicking Kevin Lopez who took the race through in a blazing 52.9 that left some of the lesser name guys gasping for breath. Meanwhile, Aman was quite comfortable at that pace and made it through.
In the second heat, Symmonds couldn't quite stay in contact as the heat was won in 1:46.18 by Andre Olivier. Symmonds finished fourth in the heat with a 1:47.29. Marcin Lewandowski of Poland was second in 1:46.26 and is a very dangerous name looking ahead to the finals. Ollivier's race was a pleasant surprise win in the heat. Third in the heat, and qualifying for the finals on time was 22 year old Thijmen Kupers who came through with a big surprise 3rd place. His 1:46.55 was just .09 off his outdoor PR. As a point of reference, Balla (DQ'd from this heat), Symmonds and Lewandowski are all 1:43 or faster guys.
The third and final heat was also blazing fast. The first two laps were covered in 51.71 by Mutai. Adam Kszczot of Poland, countryman of Lewandowski, won the heat impressively. Andrew Osagie, who is always clutch at the world championships, raced to a 1:45.88, good for second in the heat and second fastest time of the day, to qualify for yet another world championship final. Osagie rounds out a very intriguing final that is led by Aman and the Polish runners, but has darkhorses including Osaige himself and Olivier to join the newcomer Kupers.
The men's 3000m trials and women's 1500m trials will happen later today! Hopefully Rupp, Lagat, Kampf and Moser will get through to the finals in the USA jersey.
EDIT: Heather Kampf in a bit of a surprise leads her heat for about 1400m before being edged out, but she still snags an auto spot into the finals! Represented the USA well after her surprise call up to the big leagues with Cain pulling out due to injury. Moser also looked very good, she won her heat without much issue. Aregawi of Sweden, likely the favorite to win the race, also won her heat and qualified fairly easily in the fastest time of the day.
Heat 1 of the 3k is all finished up and Galen Rupp notched one of the auto qualifying spots in the heat. Also qualifying were favorites Dejen Gebremeskel and Augustine Choge. Andrew Vernon from Great Britian got the 4th auto spot. The heat was pretty quick overall with the top 7 all running under 7:50. Gelant and Biringham get in on time.
Turns out the second heat was just as quick and the names get through to the final. Lagat qualifies out of heat 2 along with Ndiku, Gebrhiwet and Ibrahomiv. Ndiku is a really potent sleeper going forward, after winning his heat today he comes into the final with a strong 3:29 Pr from a year ago that gives him a great kick against this field. Cam Levins, the Canadian sensation, manages to sneak in on time. Zane Robertson joins him out of this second heat.
Sets up a very exciting final with defending champion Lagat, big time world level medalists like Rupp, Choge, Gebremeskel, and Gebrhiwet and then sleepers like Ndiku and Levins who have nice closing speed. This is probably the most exciting final for me personally.
Both Gabby Grunewald and Shannon Rowbury advanced to the final in the woman's 3k, Rowbury with the last auto in her heat and Grunewald with the last time qualifier. Only 3 girls in total were eliminated during the prelims, so it's not exactly a difficult journey to the finals, but it's nice to see the US represented. The favorite in the final will be Genezebe Dibaba, the world indoor record holder at 1500m, 3000m and 2-miles. She is on a whole other level relative to this field. If things are tactical we know Rowbury and Grunewald have strong kicks, but the 3k is pretty loaded and both woman will need some fortune to snag medals on Sunday.
The men's 1500m prelims eliminate a slew of favorites from the world championship final. In Heat 1 the US's Lopez Lomong was facing off in a stacked heat and, off slow fractions, was outkicked and missed the final. Also missing the final was multiple world championship finalist Mekonnen Gebremedhin and up and coming miler Lee Emanuel of Great Britian. Tesfaye of Germany made it to the finals, he is proving to be an excellent tactician in recent years. Jakub Holusa of Czech Republic surprised for the second spot in the finals. That can happen in a kicker's race. His best 1500m ever is only 3:38 (Lomong's is 3:32) but Holusa has 1:45.12 800m speed and that got him in as a surprise finalist. He has also clocked 7:53 this year indoors for 3k as a nice Pr.
In the second heat, things were also fairly tactical. As a result, former WC silver Medalist and sub 3:30 man Silas Kiplagat was left out of the final, thus eliminating perhaps the biggest name in the field. Finishing ahead of him was Ayanleh Souleiman, a fantastic 800m-1500m type who was the bronze medalist in the WC 800m last year. Souleiman was joined by Nick Willis of New Zealand who is having an excellent indoor season. The former Michigan grad outkicked Kiplagat and Chris O'Hare (former indoor collegiate mile record holder) to get in. He also beat out former teammate Nate Brannen. Souleiman and Willis go into the final as the two clear favorites for medals in the event. Stunningly, Kiplagat's 3:39, which got him third in the heat, was also not good enough to get on time.
The final heat was quick from the gun, and that allowed Will Leer among others to pass into the final on time. Aman Wote and defending world indoor champion Abdalaati Iguider took the 1-2 auto qualifying spots and the field flooded in quickly behind them. Will Leer outkicked a slew of top metric milers like Birgen and Ozbilen and ended in 3:38.02 for third in the heat and the third fastest time of the day. Birgen and Ozbilen will join Leer as the final time qualifiers with David McCarthy, former Providence miler, running 3:39.46 and just missing Ozbilen's spot.
The 1500m final is loaded, but if Leer can race tactically sound, he has proven he has great kicking ability. There are certainly better runners in this field than him on paper, but Leer's kick always makes him dangerous. If I had to guess, in a field like this, I don't expect Leer to be in the top 5, but a lot of other big names have been eliminated so who knows what other superstars will fail to rise to the occasion.
In the women's 800m, Ajee Wilson, the young american superstar at 800m, took a surprising exit from the world indoor championship, perhaps eliminating the USA's best shot at a medal. Wilson finished her heat in 4th in 2:02.90 and needed to win her heat to get an auto bid into the 6 woman final. In Heat 3, PA's own Chanelle Price led the race nearly wire to wire and, although she just barely missed out on the win, she did run 2:01.05 and got herself into the world final! Congrats to Easton's Chanelle Price! Things should be interesting for Chanelle in final. The final isn't exactly loaded with the big names at 800m and she likely will assume the pace and command the race. If she can do that and hold off enough kickers on the last lap she should snag a medal. Price is tough to pass on an indoor track and has PRs almost across the board indoors this season. I think Price has a fantastic chance to sneak onto the medal stand in Sopot.
In the men's 8, we had a bit of a let down. Both Erik Sowinski (who I had very high hopes for) and Nick Symmonds (last year's world championship sliver medalist) missed qualifying for the finals by a decent margin. Symmonds is never ready to run fast indoors so his miss wasn't as surprising for me as Sowinski's who wasn't even close to qualifying off a 1:48 run. I like Sowinski and think he has lots of room to develop, he just needed some extra experience on the world scene.
Sowinski was in the same heat as the class of the field, Mo Aman who won the heat on the final lap outkicking Kevin Lopez who took the race through in a blazing 52.9 that left some of the lesser name guys gasping for breath. Meanwhile, Aman was quite comfortable at that pace and made it through.
In the second heat, Symmonds couldn't quite stay in contact as the heat was won in 1:46.18 by Andre Olivier. Symmonds finished fourth in the heat with a 1:47.29. Marcin Lewandowski of Poland was second in 1:46.26 and is a very dangerous name looking ahead to the finals. Ollivier's race was a pleasant surprise win in the heat. Third in the heat, and qualifying for the finals on time was 22 year old Thijmen Kupers who came through with a big surprise 3rd place. His 1:46.55 was just .09 off his outdoor PR. As a point of reference, Balla (DQ'd from this heat), Symmonds and Lewandowski are all 1:43 or faster guys.
The third and final heat was also blazing fast. The first two laps were covered in 51.71 by Mutai. Adam Kszczot of Poland, countryman of Lewandowski, won the heat impressively. Andrew Osagie, who is always clutch at the world championships, raced to a 1:45.88, good for second in the heat and second fastest time of the day, to qualify for yet another world championship final. Osagie rounds out a very intriguing final that is led by Aman and the Polish runners, but has darkhorses including Osaige himself and Olivier to join the newcomer Kupers.
The men's 3000m trials and women's 1500m trials will happen later today! Hopefully Rupp, Lagat, Kampf and Moser will get through to the finals in the USA jersey.
EDIT: Heather Kampf in a bit of a surprise leads her heat for about 1400m before being edged out, but she still snags an auto spot into the finals! Represented the USA well after her surprise call up to the big leagues with Cain pulling out due to injury. Moser also looked very good, she won her heat without much issue. Aregawi of Sweden, likely the favorite to win the race, also won her heat and qualified fairly easily in the fastest time of the day.
Heat 1 of the 3k is all finished up and Galen Rupp notched one of the auto qualifying spots in the heat. Also qualifying were favorites Dejen Gebremeskel and Augustine Choge. Andrew Vernon from Great Britian got the 4th auto spot. The heat was pretty quick overall with the top 7 all running under 7:50. Gelant and Biringham get in on time.
Turns out the second heat was just as quick and the names get through to the final. Lagat qualifies out of heat 2 along with Ndiku, Gebrhiwet and Ibrahomiv. Ndiku is a really potent sleeper going forward, after winning his heat today he comes into the final with a strong 3:29 Pr from a year ago that gives him a great kick against this field. Cam Levins, the Canadian sensation, manages to sneak in on time. Zane Robertson joins him out of this second heat.
Sets up a very exciting final with defending champion Lagat, big time world level medalists like Rupp, Choge, Gebremeskel, and Gebrhiwet and then sleepers like Ndiku and Levins who have nice closing speed. This is probably the most exciting final for me personally.
4x8/DMR
First off I'd just like to point out the official entries for the NCAA Indoor Championships. The entries are fairly similar to what I projected, but there are a few notable differences (Lawi Lalang is trying to win all 3 distance events!). You can check out the list here: http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250997-NCAA-D1-Indoor-Championships-2014/article/25430-ENTRIES-NCAA-Indoor-TF-Championships
But I guess at this point I owe you guys some relay talk. Both the relays didn't exactly have a surprising winner, but things were kind of odd in the way that they won. First off State College flat out dominated despite only running a 7:50 mark. They just weren't challenged thanks mostly to the fact that the O'Hara guys ran so fantastic in the individuals that there was nothing left for the relay. I'm really impressed they held on for second honestly, considering how much was invested in the individuals. I'd love to know splits if they are out there, Caldwell had a really nice anchor, Wiseman and Francis were strong, and I'm sure there were plenty of other break out marks. North Penn once again came to play, just always good at the 4x8, can't explain it.
In the DM West Chester Henderson left themselves somewhat vulnerable anchoring Stratman over the superstar Russell. In addition, Russell, tired from doing all the work in the mile, was in no mood to do all the work to keep the pace down around 3 flat on that 1200. So ultimately, Henderson looked vulnerable with "only" a 3:08 lead off leg and a guy in Stratman who was in the most pressure packed running situation of his young career. But Stratman rose beautifully to the occassion, ran very within himself and solo-ed a 4:24ish type mark (which would put him about #2 on the team yesterday) and easily wrapped up a victory. I think we could see big things out of Stratman both at nationals next week and this outdoors. I was impressed.
I still can't help but wonder if this race ends up different if a team like Lower Dauphin or Altoona was in this race with completely fresh legs if the outcome would have been different. I think Henderson was just clearly the best team out there, but 10:24 doesn't usually win the state championship by 8 seconds. The race for second was incredibly exciting (and I wish they would have showed that on the feed) with Bilotta running great and Kardish really having a very nice double. He may be a dangerous 2 mile type/miler outdoors. He is a strong runner and I was very impressed by that double (and really that HG Prep team in general). Pleasant surprise for sure. Same can be said for Cole Nissley's double for LD off the 3k. CB South quietly drops down to 10:39. 10:39 for a team that barely made it to the state championships! They are a very well coached group of guys and they have a really strong freshman on that squad.
Small note before I move to the future, Henderson probably could have grabbed a team trophy without much difficulty, they were only 3 points away from third despite not even trying to get there. O'Hara wanted the podium and they ended up 2nd in a big surprise. That was a very intriguing podium battle, much like UDs in 2009.
So now the question turns to the same question it has been for some time. O'Hara vs. Henderson! Last year those two teams matched up in XC in a historic state meet and an unbelievable year overall. The battle indoors last year for 2nd in the 4x8 came down to Henderson and O'Hara (and Pennsbury of course).The two also battled it out at Penn Relays last year, although LaSalle was the team that stole the show.
Now there is another showdown looming. I'm hoping we get to see it at Nationals first and foremost. Both teams would have the potential to be in the 10:10 range and take down the state record. Henderson ran 10:16 not too long ago and O'Hara rocked a low 10:20s mark on a flat track. O'Hara went to states and had a variety of strong individual performances. By now each of there legs has run 1:56 or faster this season with Belfatto also running 4:17 and Smart running 1:54 last weekend. Meanwhile, Tony Russell continues to dominate the mile indoors with a variety of sub 4:13 miles this year (I think he has like 5 or so which is absolutely absurd).
In my opinion (which tends to be wrong), I think the best order for O'Hara would be James, 400 leg, Smart, Belfatto and Henderson would be best off running Moy, Thompson, Stratman, Russell. That would be quite the race with Russell likely chasing Belfatto over the course of the last leg. Head to head I would say that order would yield something like
1200m, I favor Moy by about 1-2 seconds although James ran a lot of fantastic 1200s a year ago and is gutsy, Moy has the experience and the speed this season to kick James down on the leadoff
400m, I'd say it's a draw. Thompson's recent 51 split might end up giving Henderson a surprise edge if he can match that at Nats with some actual competition on his leg.
800m, I really like what Stratman did last week, but Smart is about a 4 second advantage on Stratman these days coming off a fantastic 1:54 mark at indoor states. He could maybe even split 1:53 chasing
1600m, Russell clearly has the advantage here because he has run so much faster than Belfatto and has split 4:11 twice already. Belfatto could break through for a 4:15 type mark (which is equivalent to the 4:17 he ran for a full mile), but Russell would still have him by 4-5 seconds if he is on his game.
That means, in total, Henderson has about 2-3 second advantage on paper. But on race day, none of that matters. I'm pumped for whenever this becomes reality.
Also just want to say State College can still do big things on the 4x8 relay. If they took the trip to nats they can do a Pennridge esque time at the very least. But they may be content to end the year with the state championship.
But I guess at this point I owe you guys some relay talk. Both the relays didn't exactly have a surprising winner, but things were kind of odd in the way that they won. First off State College flat out dominated despite only running a 7:50 mark. They just weren't challenged thanks mostly to the fact that the O'Hara guys ran so fantastic in the individuals that there was nothing left for the relay. I'm really impressed they held on for second honestly, considering how much was invested in the individuals. I'd love to know splits if they are out there, Caldwell had a really nice anchor, Wiseman and Francis were strong, and I'm sure there were plenty of other break out marks. North Penn once again came to play, just always good at the 4x8, can't explain it.
In the DM West Chester Henderson left themselves somewhat vulnerable anchoring Stratman over the superstar Russell. In addition, Russell, tired from doing all the work in the mile, was in no mood to do all the work to keep the pace down around 3 flat on that 1200. So ultimately, Henderson looked vulnerable with "only" a 3:08 lead off leg and a guy in Stratman who was in the most pressure packed running situation of his young career. But Stratman rose beautifully to the occassion, ran very within himself and solo-ed a 4:24ish type mark (which would put him about #2 on the team yesterday) and easily wrapped up a victory. I think we could see big things out of Stratman both at nationals next week and this outdoors. I was impressed.
I still can't help but wonder if this race ends up different if a team like Lower Dauphin or Altoona was in this race with completely fresh legs if the outcome would have been different. I think Henderson was just clearly the best team out there, but 10:24 doesn't usually win the state championship by 8 seconds. The race for second was incredibly exciting (and I wish they would have showed that on the feed) with Bilotta running great and Kardish really having a very nice double. He may be a dangerous 2 mile type/miler outdoors. He is a strong runner and I was very impressed by that double (and really that HG Prep team in general). Pleasant surprise for sure. Same can be said for Cole Nissley's double for LD off the 3k. CB South quietly drops down to 10:39. 10:39 for a team that barely made it to the state championships! They are a very well coached group of guys and they have a really strong freshman on that squad.
Small note before I move to the future, Henderson probably could have grabbed a team trophy without much difficulty, they were only 3 points away from third despite not even trying to get there. O'Hara wanted the podium and they ended up 2nd in a big surprise. That was a very intriguing podium battle, much like UDs in 2009.
So now the question turns to the same question it has been for some time. O'Hara vs. Henderson! Last year those two teams matched up in XC in a historic state meet and an unbelievable year overall. The battle indoors last year for 2nd in the 4x8 came down to Henderson and O'Hara (and Pennsbury of course).The two also battled it out at Penn Relays last year, although LaSalle was the team that stole the show.
Now there is another showdown looming. I'm hoping we get to see it at Nationals first and foremost. Both teams would have the potential to be in the 10:10 range and take down the state record. Henderson ran 10:16 not too long ago and O'Hara rocked a low 10:20s mark on a flat track. O'Hara went to states and had a variety of strong individual performances. By now each of there legs has run 1:56 or faster this season with Belfatto also running 4:17 and Smart running 1:54 last weekend. Meanwhile, Tony Russell continues to dominate the mile indoors with a variety of sub 4:13 miles this year (I think he has like 5 or so which is absolutely absurd).
In my opinion (which tends to be wrong), I think the best order for O'Hara would be James, 400 leg, Smart, Belfatto and Henderson would be best off running Moy, Thompson, Stratman, Russell. That would be quite the race with Russell likely chasing Belfatto over the course of the last leg. Head to head I would say that order would yield something like
1200m, I favor Moy by about 1-2 seconds although James ran a lot of fantastic 1200s a year ago and is gutsy, Moy has the experience and the speed this season to kick James down on the leadoff
400m, I'd say it's a draw. Thompson's recent 51 split might end up giving Henderson a surprise edge if he can match that at Nats with some actual competition on his leg.
800m, I really like what Stratman did last week, but Smart is about a 4 second advantage on Stratman these days coming off a fantastic 1:54 mark at indoor states. He could maybe even split 1:53 chasing
1600m, Russell clearly has the advantage here because he has run so much faster than Belfatto and has split 4:11 twice already. Belfatto could break through for a 4:15 type mark (which is equivalent to the 4:17 he ran for a full mile), but Russell would still have him by 4-5 seconds if he is on his game.
That means, in total, Henderson has about 2-3 second advantage on paper. But on race day, none of that matters. I'm pumped for whenever this becomes reality.
Also just want to say State College can still do big things on the 4x8 relay. If they took the trip to nats they can do a Pennridge esque time at the very least. But they may be content to end the year with the state championship.
NCAA Qualifying
Figured I'd throw some NCAA stuff in here since I haven't for so long, but if you are here for HS related info feel free to scroll down a bit and read up on my recap of the individual events at states.
The deadline for entries for the NCAA championship meet is today, meaning that we now know the top names in each event. We should be able to somewhat reasonably project the NCAA entries as a result. The top 16 individuals and the top 12 relays will be accepted in each event. So here is what the distance picture looks like in the Men's NCAA.
DMR
The DMR is the simplest one to project in my mind. The top 12 teams are all going to enter because there is basically no incentive not to. You can run a team of relative B squad guys if that benefits you in the individuals without any penalty. If you don't accept the bid you leave 4 guys at home who could have been representing your school on the national stage and gaining valuable experience at the top level. It's an excellent recruiting tool, team championship tool and much much more.
So long story short these are the 12 teams you can expect to toe the line at the NCAA championships later this month (qualifying team members listed, but substitutions can be made):
1. PSU 9:26.59 Kidder, Bennentt-Green, Watkins, Creese
2. Indiana 9:27.72 Gornall, Morgan, Kinnaird, Hunter
3. Villanova 9:28.06 Solis, Ellison, Fitzsimons, Williamsz
4. Oregon 9:28.91 Fleet, Galpin, Guyota, Cheserek
5. Stanford 9:28.95 Bertolotti, Solomon, Lefebure, Atchoo
6. Georgetown 9:29.11 Bartelsmeyer, Andre, Ledder, Bile
7. Arkansas 9:29.37 Wallace, Braddy, Squella, Rono
8. Notre Dame 9:29.43 Rae, Feeney, Dumford, Happe
9. OK State 9:29.91 Moskowitz, Payton, Noelle, Erassa
10. Virginia Tech 9:30.26 Degfae, Dally, Degfae, Pollock
11. Columbia 9:30.72 Gregorek, McFann, Fish, Everett
12. Washington 9:31.82 Simon, Satterwhite, Daigre, Yorks
First teams out include Minnesota (9:31.94), Nebraska (9:32.85) and Oklahoma (9:32.92)
800m
The 800m begins the trickiness of the whole projecting operation. Here is the honest truth, a lot of these guys who are at the top of the 800m are also pieces of these top DMR teams. Does that mean we may see a few guys pull out from the 800m top 16 and open the door for some surprises? Well here are the 16 names that are currently in the position to get in. I will mark with a * guys who either have important DMRs or are better off going after a different individual event.
1. Edward Kemboi, Iowa State 1:45.98
2. Brandon Kidder, Penn State 1:47.45*
3. Eliud Rutto, Middle Tennesse State 1:47.45+ (converted from 1:48.98 flat track)
4. Brandon McBride, Mississippi State 1:47.51
5. Sean Obinwa, Florida 1:47.76
6. Billy Ledder, Georgetown 1:47.89*
7. Alvaro Chavez, UConn 1:47.96
8. Patrick Rono, Arkansas 1:47.96*
9. Andres Arroyo, Florida 1:47.97
10. Ryan Schnulle, Florida 1:48.05
11. Zavon Watkins, PSU 1:48.11*
12. Sam Ellison, Nova 1:48.40*
13. Tomas Squella, Arkansas 1:48.70*
14. Jacopo Lahbi, Alabama 1:48.77
15. Luke Lefebure, Stanford 1:48.80*
16. Andrew Smith, UMBC 1:48.82
First off, how sick is that Florida 4x8? Would love to somehow see those guys come out to Penn Relays. Second, we have to see which guys may drop out of this event. Two PSU guys, two Arkansas guys, a Nova guy and a Stanford guy as well as a GTown guy are on this list. Most of them will likely not pull out. Ellison is almost a lock to stay in, they will just use him as a 400 guy on the DM. Arkansas is usually in the team title talks at these meets so they will probably want to use Rono and Squella in the open 8 if possible. That means they will have to change up their DMR order and run someone like Kemoy Campbell on the anchor leg if he is healthy. Lefebure may drop out if Stanford as serious aspirations in the DMR, but I think they may reward him for a strong year and let him double. Kidder seems so close to the title I can't imagine a situation where Kidder drops the open 8. Ledder has been very good this year and is a potential All American at 800m, so I doubt GTown will pull him out of the open. So really only Watkins is a possible drop in my eyes. I'd say it's 50-50 for him to be in or out.
The guys waiting to step in should anyone drop are:
Jesse Jorgensen, Washington State 1:48.84
Jake Hiltner, Akron 1:48.85
Nick Hartle, UCLA 1:48.86
Sam Penzenstadler, Loyola 1:48.86
Mile
Much like the 800m, the open mile is before the DMR and seriously complicates the picture of who will enter the big dance. Plus milers may be better off as 5k guys or staying fresh for a 3k attempt. If no one drops here are the top 16 names. Once again I will mark those who I think may drop.
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 3:52.88*
2. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 3:55.86@ (altitude conversion)*
3. Jordan Williamsz, Villanova 3:56.84*
4. Matt Hillenbrand, Kentucky 3:57.00
5. Jeremy Rae, Notre Dame 3:57.25*
6. Rich Peters, Boston University 3:57.27
7. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 3:58.04
8. Sam Penzenstadler, Loyla 3:58.21
9. Mac Fleet, Oregon 3:58.25*
10. Matt Gillespie, Iona 3:58.48
11. Brandon Kidder, PSU 3:58.49*
12. Steve Mangan, Dartmouth 3:58.65+
13. Elmar Engholm, New Mexico 3:58.90@
14. John Gregorek, Columbia 3:58.95+*
15. Izaic Yorks, Washington 3:59.04*
16. Chad Noelle, OK State 3:59.12*
For those of you not counting, that's 9 guys marked with a * that may pull out, making a lot of guys left sitting home on the edge of their seat. Lawi will almost definitely stay with the mile but there is a small, small chance he is more interested in challenging himself in the 5k-3k. I doubt it, but there is a small chance. Williamsz and Rae are huge pieces of their DMR, but I think they will go after the double. You see lots of guys doing it each year and these two (as well as someone like Mac Fleet) will likely stay in the open.
Kidder, as mentioned above, I see in the 800m. Which means I've got him pegged to be dropping out. Rotich I see as a 5k-3k type rather than the mile and I also have him as a drop out (no guarentees, however, thanks to the generous altitude conversion). Gregorek and Yorks may choose to stay fresh for their DMRs later in the night, but their DMRs also both skated into the championship meet and may not see a fresh squad as being of the same importance. I think OK State can replace/double Noelle's leg on the DMR without too much issue so I expect him to be in.
All in all we are probably looking at somewhere between 3-5 people saying nah to the NCAA mile. That means the following group of people will be waiting by the phone.
Michael Williams, Princeton 3:59.21+
Isaac Presson, North Carolina 3:59.23+
Austin Mudd, Wisconsin 3:59.31+
Sam Stabler, Lamar 3:59.33+
Jesse Garn, Binghamton 3:59.37
John Simons, Minnesota 3:59.38
Brett Johnson, Oregon 3:59.39
Rob Denault, Nova 3:59.52
3000m
The 3k is on the second day of competition meaning that this event is very likely to have the top 16 guys as the guys competing. There is no harm in entering in this race and seeing what happens. Those 16 names are as follows:
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 7:44.20
2. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 7:47.20
3. Jake Hursyz, Colorado 7:50.50
4. Erik Olson, Stanford 7:50.81
5. Joe Bosshard, Coloardo 7:50.86
6. Parker Stinson, Oregon 7:51.06
7. Brian Shrader, NAU 7:51.48@
8. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 7:51.52
9. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 7:51.57
10. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 7:51.78
11. Matt Gillespie, Iona 7:52.24
12. Jared Ward, BYU 7:52.51
13. Rich Peters, Boston University 7:52.61
14. Ben Saarel, Coloardo 7:52.61
15. John Simons, Minnesota 7:52.62
16. Trevor Dunbar, Oregon 7:53.13
Barring an injury, this should be the field. It will be loaded with Colorado guys who may really surprise considering the NCAA meet is held at altitude this year.
5000m
This race usually just ends up being pretty close to the top 16 names as most long distance guys are clear cut 5k guys not on the whole DM and Mile scene. However this year it is a tiny bit more complicated than that. Here is the current top 16:
1. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 13:37.42
2. Patrick Tiernan, Villanova 13:37.73
3. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 13:40.51
4. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 13:41.58
5. Jared Ward, BYU 13:42.17
6. Luke Caldwell, New Mexcio 13:42.50
7. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 13:42.56
8. Erik Olson, Stanford 13:42.56
9. Mark Parrish, Florida 13:43.15
10. Joe Bosshard, Colorado 13:43.21
11. Parker Stinson, Oregon 13:43.51
12. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 13:44.13
13. Mo Ahmed, Wisconsin 13:44.32
14. Brian Shrader, NAU 13:44.55
15. Adam Bitchell, New Mexico 13:44.70
16. Joe Rosa, Stanford 13:44.85
Lawi Lalang, I believe, will drop out of the 5k in favor of the Mile-3k double. Eddy Ches may also drop out of the line up if he is going to anchor the DMR, but I think they let Cheserek go after another national championship in this event. They can do serious damage in the DMR without him. Oregon has to be thinking about maximizing points to climb higher and higher up the podium. So really I see one more spot opening up which means #17 Morgan Pearson from Colorado (13:49.30) would sneak in to national championships. Another Coloardo guy who will be dangerous at altitude.
The deadline for entries for the NCAA championship meet is today, meaning that we now know the top names in each event. We should be able to somewhat reasonably project the NCAA entries as a result. The top 16 individuals and the top 12 relays will be accepted in each event. So here is what the distance picture looks like in the Men's NCAA.
DMR
The DMR is the simplest one to project in my mind. The top 12 teams are all going to enter because there is basically no incentive not to. You can run a team of relative B squad guys if that benefits you in the individuals without any penalty. If you don't accept the bid you leave 4 guys at home who could have been representing your school on the national stage and gaining valuable experience at the top level. It's an excellent recruiting tool, team championship tool and much much more.
So long story short these are the 12 teams you can expect to toe the line at the NCAA championships later this month (qualifying team members listed, but substitutions can be made):
1. PSU 9:26.59 Kidder, Bennentt-Green, Watkins, Creese
2. Indiana 9:27.72 Gornall, Morgan, Kinnaird, Hunter
3. Villanova 9:28.06 Solis, Ellison, Fitzsimons, Williamsz
4. Oregon 9:28.91 Fleet, Galpin, Guyota, Cheserek
5. Stanford 9:28.95 Bertolotti, Solomon, Lefebure, Atchoo
6. Georgetown 9:29.11 Bartelsmeyer, Andre, Ledder, Bile
7. Arkansas 9:29.37 Wallace, Braddy, Squella, Rono
8. Notre Dame 9:29.43 Rae, Feeney, Dumford, Happe
9. OK State 9:29.91 Moskowitz, Payton, Noelle, Erassa
10. Virginia Tech 9:30.26 Degfae, Dally, Degfae, Pollock
11. Columbia 9:30.72 Gregorek, McFann, Fish, Everett
12. Washington 9:31.82 Simon, Satterwhite, Daigre, Yorks
First teams out include Minnesota (9:31.94), Nebraska (9:32.85) and Oklahoma (9:32.92)
800m
The 800m begins the trickiness of the whole projecting operation. Here is the honest truth, a lot of these guys who are at the top of the 800m are also pieces of these top DMR teams. Does that mean we may see a few guys pull out from the 800m top 16 and open the door for some surprises? Well here are the 16 names that are currently in the position to get in. I will mark with a * guys who either have important DMRs or are better off going after a different individual event.
1. Edward Kemboi, Iowa State 1:45.98
2. Brandon Kidder, Penn State 1:47.45*
3. Eliud Rutto, Middle Tennesse State 1:47.45+ (converted from 1:48.98 flat track)
4. Brandon McBride, Mississippi State 1:47.51
5. Sean Obinwa, Florida 1:47.76
6. Billy Ledder, Georgetown 1:47.89*
7. Alvaro Chavez, UConn 1:47.96
8. Patrick Rono, Arkansas 1:47.96*
9. Andres Arroyo, Florida 1:47.97
10. Ryan Schnulle, Florida 1:48.05
11. Zavon Watkins, PSU 1:48.11*
12. Sam Ellison, Nova 1:48.40*
13. Tomas Squella, Arkansas 1:48.70*
14. Jacopo Lahbi, Alabama 1:48.77
15. Luke Lefebure, Stanford 1:48.80*
16. Andrew Smith, UMBC 1:48.82
First off, how sick is that Florida 4x8? Would love to somehow see those guys come out to Penn Relays. Second, we have to see which guys may drop out of this event. Two PSU guys, two Arkansas guys, a Nova guy and a Stanford guy as well as a GTown guy are on this list. Most of them will likely not pull out. Ellison is almost a lock to stay in, they will just use him as a 400 guy on the DM. Arkansas is usually in the team title talks at these meets so they will probably want to use Rono and Squella in the open 8 if possible. That means they will have to change up their DMR order and run someone like Kemoy Campbell on the anchor leg if he is healthy. Lefebure may drop out if Stanford as serious aspirations in the DMR, but I think they may reward him for a strong year and let him double. Kidder seems so close to the title I can't imagine a situation where Kidder drops the open 8. Ledder has been very good this year and is a potential All American at 800m, so I doubt GTown will pull him out of the open. So really only Watkins is a possible drop in my eyes. I'd say it's 50-50 for him to be in or out.
The guys waiting to step in should anyone drop are:
Jesse Jorgensen, Washington State 1:48.84
Jake Hiltner, Akron 1:48.85
Nick Hartle, UCLA 1:48.86
Sam Penzenstadler, Loyola 1:48.86
Mile
Much like the 800m, the open mile is before the DMR and seriously complicates the picture of who will enter the big dance. Plus milers may be better off as 5k guys or staying fresh for a 3k attempt. If no one drops here are the top 16 names. Once again I will mark those who I think may drop.
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 3:52.88*
2. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 3:55.86@ (altitude conversion)*
3. Jordan Williamsz, Villanova 3:56.84*
4. Matt Hillenbrand, Kentucky 3:57.00
5. Jeremy Rae, Notre Dame 3:57.25*
6. Rich Peters, Boston University 3:57.27
7. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 3:58.04
8. Sam Penzenstadler, Loyla 3:58.21
9. Mac Fleet, Oregon 3:58.25*
10. Matt Gillespie, Iona 3:58.48
11. Brandon Kidder, PSU 3:58.49*
12. Steve Mangan, Dartmouth 3:58.65+
13. Elmar Engholm, New Mexico 3:58.90@
14. John Gregorek, Columbia 3:58.95+*
15. Izaic Yorks, Washington 3:59.04*
16. Chad Noelle, OK State 3:59.12*
For those of you not counting, that's 9 guys marked with a * that may pull out, making a lot of guys left sitting home on the edge of their seat. Lawi will almost definitely stay with the mile but there is a small, small chance he is more interested in challenging himself in the 5k-3k. I doubt it, but there is a small chance. Williamsz and Rae are huge pieces of their DMR, but I think they will go after the double. You see lots of guys doing it each year and these two (as well as someone like Mac Fleet) will likely stay in the open.
Kidder, as mentioned above, I see in the 800m. Which means I've got him pegged to be dropping out. Rotich I see as a 5k-3k type rather than the mile and I also have him as a drop out (no guarentees, however, thanks to the generous altitude conversion). Gregorek and Yorks may choose to stay fresh for their DMRs later in the night, but their DMRs also both skated into the championship meet and may not see a fresh squad as being of the same importance. I think OK State can replace/double Noelle's leg on the DMR without too much issue so I expect him to be in.
All in all we are probably looking at somewhere between 3-5 people saying nah to the NCAA mile. That means the following group of people will be waiting by the phone.
Michael Williams, Princeton 3:59.21+
Isaac Presson, North Carolina 3:59.23+
Austin Mudd, Wisconsin 3:59.31+
Sam Stabler, Lamar 3:59.33+
Jesse Garn, Binghamton 3:59.37
John Simons, Minnesota 3:59.38
Brett Johnson, Oregon 3:59.39
Rob Denault, Nova 3:59.52
3000m
The 3k is on the second day of competition meaning that this event is very likely to have the top 16 guys as the guys competing. There is no harm in entering in this race and seeing what happens. Those 16 names are as follows:
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 7:44.20
2. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 7:47.20
3. Jake Hursyz, Colorado 7:50.50
4. Erik Olson, Stanford 7:50.81
5. Joe Bosshard, Coloardo 7:50.86
6. Parker Stinson, Oregon 7:51.06
7. Brian Shrader, NAU 7:51.48@
8. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 7:51.52
9. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 7:51.57
10. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 7:51.78
11. Matt Gillespie, Iona 7:52.24
12. Jared Ward, BYU 7:52.51
13. Rich Peters, Boston University 7:52.61
14. Ben Saarel, Coloardo 7:52.61
15. John Simons, Minnesota 7:52.62
16. Trevor Dunbar, Oregon 7:53.13
Barring an injury, this should be the field. It will be loaded with Colorado guys who may really surprise considering the NCAA meet is held at altitude this year.
5000m
This race usually just ends up being pretty close to the top 16 names as most long distance guys are clear cut 5k guys not on the whole DM and Mile scene. However this year it is a tiny bit more complicated than that. Here is the current top 16:
1. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 13:37.42
2. Patrick Tiernan, Villanova 13:37.73
3. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 13:40.51
4. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 13:41.58
5. Jared Ward, BYU 13:42.17
6. Luke Caldwell, New Mexcio 13:42.50
7. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 13:42.56
8. Erik Olson, Stanford 13:42.56
9. Mark Parrish, Florida 13:43.15
10. Joe Bosshard, Colorado 13:43.21
11. Parker Stinson, Oregon 13:43.51
12. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 13:44.13
13. Mo Ahmed, Wisconsin 13:44.32
14. Brian Shrader, NAU 13:44.55
15. Adam Bitchell, New Mexico 13:44.70
16. Joe Rosa, Stanford 13:44.85
Lawi Lalang, I believe, will drop out of the 5k in favor of the Mile-3k double. Eddy Ches may also drop out of the line up if he is going to anchor the DMR, but I think they let Cheserek go after another national championship in this event. They can do serious damage in the DMR without him. Oregon has to be thinking about maximizing points to climb higher and higher up the podium. So really I see one more spot opening up which means #17 Morgan Pearson from Colorado (13:49.30) would sneak in to national championships. Another Coloardo guy who will be dangerous at altitude.
States Recap: 3000m
The Mile and 800m recaps can be seen below.
Ah the 3k. The only event of the day where I missed on the state champion. And man did I miss on the state champion. Colin Martin ran a fantastic race officially removing the title of "Ethan Martin's brother". Ethan had been the big name for a while, but Colin, who came on big last spring and even bigger this fall, is now a state champion in his own right. Imagine if both brothers are full healthy for outdoors? I wonder what a 1-2 punch of Martins would look like outdoors and if that sibling rivalry would get you to sub 9 minutes?
Colin probably could have even gone faster out there. The pace was a little sporadic and the first 1k was blazing fast! It was around 2:45 which is roughly 8:15 pace! If the pace was more like 2:50-2:50 for the first 2k then I think Martin could have come home in 2:48 and ran 8:28 to put him in the sub 8:30 club. Considering how often Martin has contested the longer distances and how often Wilson contested the longer stuff a year ago and both guys ended up finishing the season on quite the high note, I am going to have to go back and revisit a few theories.
Dominic Deluca ran gutsy but ended up getting caught in the wrong spot. He likely didn't realize just how fast things were early on and he wanted to be at the front. Then suddenly, he found himself at the front of the race and said, OK gotta just keep on pressing. Deluca still ran a PR kind of race out there and certainly helped make things fast for Martin, but got exposed the last 1k. A more evenly run race and Deluca is in excellent position for a massive PR. Outdoors a more experienced Deluca should be a factor in an excellent outdoor 3200m field. If all the pieces come together, I not only expect sub 9 minutes, but I expect 10+ guys under 9:20 (weather permitting).
Jake Brophy man. Wow. Watching that race, I thought he fell off hard off the fast pace and just wasn't ready to run the 8:40ish time it would take to be in the top 5. Then all of a sudden the results flash up on the board and Brophy gets up for 3rd and almost takes 2nd! What a fantastic kick! Just a sophomore finding his ability and proving his kick in a great field. I picked Brophy to win states because I believed in that kick and maybe in a different, much more tactical race, Brophy could have won the race, but for now I think he should be quite proud of where he finished in this field and the PR time he ran.
Kevin James had a strong race and ran a big indoor PR. I think James has been hurt a bit by the fact that his XC season went so long and he was missing a little extra umph out there to get him up for 2nd and in the sub 8:40 club. I believe that this O'Hara coaching staff is doing a fantastic job with their athletes and James last year had an excellent spring. Those two things will likely click and allow James to be gutsy and get another big PR. He probably misses having Savage and Pitone in practice (and Pastore) but Belfatto and Smart will help make him faster and add an extra dimension to his racing package. He's still just a Junior which I always forget because of how strong he ran a year ago.
Patrick Reilly has been consistently strong all year. I like the way this guy competes and runs to win. District 3 has some very interesting pieces at 32 and 16 this year. Throw Brehm into a race at districts once again and you could have Reilly, Grow, Brehm and Nissley making for a very fast race. Throw my boy Aaron Gebhardt in the conversation as well. Reilly may be another Seth Robbins/Chuck Lockwood type who runs under 9:15.
Matt McGoey! Great race by him to sneak up and get 6th! 8:45.76 for him is a nice PR just a week after a nice PR. McGoey and the NA boys will continue to improve outdoors and McGoey may turn into a title contender (no guarentees here). I think McGoey is going to really turn heads this outdoor season. If I'm on the bandwagon for Gebhardt and Caldwell, I'm driving the bandwagon for Matt McGoey. I really project big things for him going forward. Let's see if he can come through.
Hatboro Horsham gets their guys ready to go at the right times. Comber is clutch at the state meets and grabs a big PR and a medal right at the perfect moment. Quinn, Hibbs, Hibbs, Hibbs, Hibbs, Comber, Topper, Kraiss, ... Horsham gets it done.
Martson is quickly gaining a reputation as a clutch runner and he is on a fantastic career arc this season. He has had easily his best race at states two seasons in a row now. He is moving up my clutch list for sure. I will be intrigued by this Conestoga team outdoors, I like their pieces.
Molino is going to good outdoors, keep an eye on him for big things. Indoors is not the peak season for most AA guys and he still managed an 8:50 2 weeks after opening above 9 minutes. Lots of other big name guys finished outside of the medals, but I think that is a testament to both the depth of the field and the brutal early pace. A bit more of an even paced race and I think we see a bunch more down around 8:50 and maybe one or two more that dip under 8:40.
Ah the 3k. The only event of the day where I missed on the state champion. And man did I miss on the state champion. Colin Martin ran a fantastic race officially removing the title of "Ethan Martin's brother". Ethan had been the big name for a while, but Colin, who came on big last spring and even bigger this fall, is now a state champion in his own right. Imagine if both brothers are full healthy for outdoors? I wonder what a 1-2 punch of Martins would look like outdoors and if that sibling rivalry would get you to sub 9 minutes?
Colin probably could have even gone faster out there. The pace was a little sporadic and the first 1k was blazing fast! It was around 2:45 which is roughly 8:15 pace! If the pace was more like 2:50-2:50 for the first 2k then I think Martin could have come home in 2:48 and ran 8:28 to put him in the sub 8:30 club. Considering how often Martin has contested the longer distances and how often Wilson contested the longer stuff a year ago and both guys ended up finishing the season on quite the high note, I am going to have to go back and revisit a few theories.
Dominic Deluca ran gutsy but ended up getting caught in the wrong spot. He likely didn't realize just how fast things were early on and he wanted to be at the front. Then suddenly, he found himself at the front of the race and said, OK gotta just keep on pressing. Deluca still ran a PR kind of race out there and certainly helped make things fast for Martin, but got exposed the last 1k. A more evenly run race and Deluca is in excellent position for a massive PR. Outdoors a more experienced Deluca should be a factor in an excellent outdoor 3200m field. If all the pieces come together, I not only expect sub 9 minutes, but I expect 10+ guys under 9:20 (weather permitting).
Jake Brophy man. Wow. Watching that race, I thought he fell off hard off the fast pace and just wasn't ready to run the 8:40ish time it would take to be in the top 5. Then all of a sudden the results flash up on the board and Brophy gets up for 3rd and almost takes 2nd! What a fantastic kick! Just a sophomore finding his ability and proving his kick in a great field. I picked Brophy to win states because I believed in that kick and maybe in a different, much more tactical race, Brophy could have won the race, but for now I think he should be quite proud of where he finished in this field and the PR time he ran.
Kevin James had a strong race and ran a big indoor PR. I think James has been hurt a bit by the fact that his XC season went so long and he was missing a little extra umph out there to get him up for 2nd and in the sub 8:40 club. I believe that this O'Hara coaching staff is doing a fantastic job with their athletes and James last year had an excellent spring. Those two things will likely click and allow James to be gutsy and get another big PR. He probably misses having Savage and Pitone in practice (and Pastore) but Belfatto and Smart will help make him faster and add an extra dimension to his racing package. He's still just a Junior which I always forget because of how strong he ran a year ago.
Patrick Reilly has been consistently strong all year. I like the way this guy competes and runs to win. District 3 has some very interesting pieces at 32 and 16 this year. Throw Brehm into a race at districts once again and you could have Reilly, Grow, Brehm and Nissley making for a very fast race. Throw my boy Aaron Gebhardt in the conversation as well. Reilly may be another Seth Robbins/Chuck Lockwood type who runs under 9:15.
Matt McGoey! Great race by him to sneak up and get 6th! 8:45.76 for him is a nice PR just a week after a nice PR. McGoey and the NA boys will continue to improve outdoors and McGoey may turn into a title contender (no guarentees here). I think McGoey is going to really turn heads this outdoor season. If I'm on the bandwagon for Gebhardt and Caldwell, I'm driving the bandwagon for Matt McGoey. I really project big things for him going forward. Let's see if he can come through.
Hatboro Horsham gets their guys ready to go at the right times. Comber is clutch at the state meets and grabs a big PR and a medal right at the perfect moment. Quinn, Hibbs, Hibbs, Hibbs, Hibbs, Comber, Topper, Kraiss, ... Horsham gets it done.
Martson is quickly gaining a reputation as a clutch runner and he is on a fantastic career arc this season. He has had easily his best race at states two seasons in a row now. He is moving up my clutch list for sure. I will be intrigued by this Conestoga team outdoors, I like their pieces.
Molino is going to good outdoors, keep an eye on him for big things. Indoors is not the peak season for most AA guys and he still managed an 8:50 2 weeks after opening above 9 minutes. Lots of other big name guys finished outside of the medals, but I think that is a testament to both the depth of the field and the brutal early pace. A bit more of an even paced race and I think we see a bunch more down around 8:50 and maybe one or two more that dip under 8:40.
States Recap: Mile
You can see a recap of the 800m in the post below.
The mile race allowed Tony Russell to continue to show off just how much better than this field he was on paper. He ran out front did all the work and ran away from a slew of very talented guys who grabbed the rest of the state medals for PA. Russell looked very smooth throughout, kind of fell asleep in the middle (but again, no push at any point), and brought it home just short of the record. I think he still closed down around 61 seconds or something of that sort.
Yes, Russell looked up at the clock on the home straight to look for the time and I'm sure that could have cost him a little bit of time, but can you blame the guy? Half the field was guilty of clock watching this weekend (which of course drives an audience crazy, but I've done it plenty of times before in my day) and a guy who is miles in front of the field chasing a state record with no push besides the clock is going to be more likely than anyone to cheat a glance up there. I don't blame you Tony, we have all been there.
Luckily the outdoor states clock is within our normal line of sight.
Tony dominated this race overall no matter how you slice it and had a fantastic season which is one for the record books no doubt. Outdoors I would love to see this guy move up to the 3200m and mix it up in a quality field, but obviously if no one emerges who can challenge him over 1600m (Brehm and Francis moving up?) than why wouldn't you go after a repeat state championship?
Behind Tony in this race we saw the gutsy run from Jaxson Hoey who spent the entire weekend fearlessly going after Tony Russell in both the mile and 1200m leg of the DMR. Hoey showed a lot of guts and ran a solid race. The pace for the mile was probably a tad ambitious for him, but really the opening 400m was what cost Hoey. The middle laps were a perfectly reasonable pace for a guy at his level. When Russell threw down the last 400m, Hoey couldn't hang and losing confidence and someone to chase, the chasers were able to catch up and outkick him. Nothing to be ashamed of here. I'd rather see the guy go for it, especially as just a sophomore who is learnign more and more by the week.
Jim Belfatto ran a fantastic race. He ran very within himself, kept a good spot ready to pick off Hoey and hold off his other competitors. Belfatto set the tone for a second place team finish by O'Hara. Ross Wilson ran a great race as well, probably could have scared second if he went a little earlier in the race and used his strength to his advantage. Wilson is going to be dangerous at 3200m with this extra bit of speed to his name. Looking through the names of these high schoolers Wilson has to be the best runner who has yet to win a state championship (Jeff Wiseman is in the conversation as well). I think Wilson can win the 3200m outdoors if he continues this tear. But more on that later I suppose.
Caldwell came up big, but can you really be that surprised? Yes, I didn't predict him to medal (clearly the wrong move), but I've been driving the Caldwell bandwagon for a while. Last year that guy was a clutch runner and strong doubler in the 4x8 and open 8. Now Caldwell has become more than the sleeper pick guy, he has become a stud and outdoors he will be a very intriguing name. With the 4x8 looming as a top 3 team outdoors, does Caldwell move to 800m rather than 16? And if he does can he hang with those 1:50-1:51 types? It should be interesting to watch unfold.
Bilotta had a very nice weekend as well. He has made quite the name for himself as he adds his name to a list of quality LaSalle milers. Bilotta burst onto the scene last year after a sub 9:30 3200m and I'm hoping to see him get in one of the fast 32s outdoors to see if he can get under 9:20. With the depth at 3200m, I expect Bilotta to stick to the 16 as his main event, but his best distance may actually be at 2 miles.
Can Jeff Groh get some love? He absolutely dominated his heat! That was crazy. I gotta think if he was in the fast heat he would have challenged the top 5 guys and possibly been in the mix for 2nd place. Hard to speculate with certainty but he looked very good out there. He is another one who I think could be 9:12-9:15 at 3200m if things go right. But the depth in the upper distances may keep him down at 1600m where certainly would be a factor in the district championships and state championships. His teammate Sean Weidner had a very nice day as well worth noting.
Matt Willig also ran phenomenally in his heat. Gotta like what he brings to the table.
Outdoors I think guys like Becich (4:20 and no medal? sorry man), Coakley, Smith and Kolor can really develop into their own. The guys outside of District One have a lot of potential to make big progress outdoors with access to bigger, better and more consistent meets.
Props to Ryan Grace who got himself into the fast heat and race fantastically against the top competition. That was an excellent example of rising to the occasion and taking advantage of your opportunities.
The mile race allowed Tony Russell to continue to show off just how much better than this field he was on paper. He ran out front did all the work and ran away from a slew of very talented guys who grabbed the rest of the state medals for PA. Russell looked very smooth throughout, kind of fell asleep in the middle (but again, no push at any point), and brought it home just short of the record. I think he still closed down around 61 seconds or something of that sort.
Yes, Russell looked up at the clock on the home straight to look for the time and I'm sure that could have cost him a little bit of time, but can you blame the guy? Half the field was guilty of clock watching this weekend (which of course drives an audience crazy, but I've done it plenty of times before in my day) and a guy who is miles in front of the field chasing a state record with no push besides the clock is going to be more likely than anyone to cheat a glance up there. I don't blame you Tony, we have all been there.
Luckily the outdoor states clock is within our normal line of sight.
Tony dominated this race overall no matter how you slice it and had a fantastic season which is one for the record books no doubt. Outdoors I would love to see this guy move up to the 3200m and mix it up in a quality field, but obviously if no one emerges who can challenge him over 1600m (Brehm and Francis moving up?) than why wouldn't you go after a repeat state championship?
Behind Tony in this race we saw the gutsy run from Jaxson Hoey who spent the entire weekend fearlessly going after Tony Russell in both the mile and 1200m leg of the DMR. Hoey showed a lot of guts and ran a solid race. The pace for the mile was probably a tad ambitious for him, but really the opening 400m was what cost Hoey. The middle laps were a perfectly reasonable pace for a guy at his level. When Russell threw down the last 400m, Hoey couldn't hang and losing confidence and someone to chase, the chasers were able to catch up and outkick him. Nothing to be ashamed of here. I'd rather see the guy go for it, especially as just a sophomore who is learnign more and more by the week.
Jim Belfatto ran a fantastic race. He ran very within himself, kept a good spot ready to pick off Hoey and hold off his other competitors. Belfatto set the tone for a second place team finish by O'Hara. Ross Wilson ran a great race as well, probably could have scared second if he went a little earlier in the race and used his strength to his advantage. Wilson is going to be dangerous at 3200m with this extra bit of speed to his name. Looking through the names of these high schoolers Wilson has to be the best runner who has yet to win a state championship (Jeff Wiseman is in the conversation as well). I think Wilson can win the 3200m outdoors if he continues this tear. But more on that later I suppose.
Caldwell came up big, but can you really be that surprised? Yes, I didn't predict him to medal (clearly the wrong move), but I've been driving the Caldwell bandwagon for a while. Last year that guy was a clutch runner and strong doubler in the 4x8 and open 8. Now Caldwell has become more than the sleeper pick guy, he has become a stud and outdoors he will be a very intriguing name. With the 4x8 looming as a top 3 team outdoors, does Caldwell move to 800m rather than 16? And if he does can he hang with those 1:50-1:51 types? It should be interesting to watch unfold.
Bilotta had a very nice weekend as well. He has made quite the name for himself as he adds his name to a list of quality LaSalle milers. Bilotta burst onto the scene last year after a sub 9:30 3200m and I'm hoping to see him get in one of the fast 32s outdoors to see if he can get under 9:20. With the depth at 3200m, I expect Bilotta to stick to the 16 as his main event, but his best distance may actually be at 2 miles.
Can Jeff Groh get some love? He absolutely dominated his heat! That was crazy. I gotta think if he was in the fast heat he would have challenged the top 5 guys and possibly been in the mix for 2nd place. Hard to speculate with certainty but he looked very good out there. He is another one who I think could be 9:12-9:15 at 3200m if things go right. But the depth in the upper distances may keep him down at 1600m where certainly would be a factor in the district championships and state championships. His teammate Sean Weidner had a very nice day as well worth noting.
Matt Willig also ran phenomenally in his heat. Gotta like what he brings to the table.
Outdoors I think guys like Becich (4:20 and no medal? sorry man), Coakley, Smith and Kolor can really develop into their own. The guys outside of District One have a lot of potential to make big progress outdoors with access to bigger, better and more consistent meets.
Props to Ryan Grace who got himself into the fast heat and race fantastically against the top competition. That was an excellent example of rising to the occasion and taking advantage of your opportunities.
States Recap: 800m
I watched the state meet live with Forrest this past weekend and I have a few thoughts on what I saw out there that I will share with my readers out there.
First off, I apologize for all the tweeting this weekend, I get excited, but for those of you who were reading my tweets you know how historic this 800m was.
Kyle Francis, leading wire to wire and never looking back, rocked a 1:50.55 800m! Francis went into the race flanked by two of the best 800m kickers in the state and set himself up earlier as a potential sacrificial lamb to Logue or Wiseman's state record run. But he flipped the script on that and never let his competition get within striking distance. His 1:50.55 not only gives him the All-Time State Record, but it also places him tied for #4 US AT Indoors!
Only Robby Andrews, Ben Malone and Zavon Watkins sit ahead of him on that list. Andrews, in his post high school career has gone on to run 1:44.71 and 3:34 for 1500m. Ben Malone had a fantastic senior season and has run under 3:50 for 1500m on multiple occasions in high school. Zavon Watkins finished his high school career with a sub 3 1200m split, a 1:47.99 4x8 split and a variety of sub 1:50 open marks.
Francis tied Mike Granville on the all time list. Granville is the outdoor high school record holder who set the mark with a blazing 1:46 mark in 1996. Clearly Kyle Francis has put himself in some very elite company.
Jeff Wiseman's mark shouldn't be overlooked either. His was the #3 indoors for PA behind only Francis and Ned Willig and Wiseman is somewhere around #12 on the All-Time High School Indoor list which is extremely impressive. Wiseman gave it a fantastic effort against Francis and looked a few times like he could go get him during the race, but was just a tiny bit away. Great race by Jeff for sure.
And Joe Logue ran a time that would have won the state championships almost every year. Only Francis, Mallon and Endress would have beaten his 1:52.02 mark. Logue's time would have been a PA record not too long ago before Mallon busted his the first ever 1:51 indoors back in 2009.
Rarely does a race live up to the hype, and perhaps never does the race exceed the hype! These guys made for a one of a kind event. I'm not sure if any of them will try their hand at a national championship, but all should at least consider it. I wouldn't blame Francis at all if he decides he wants to end his indoor career on this note. That would a phenomenal way to end it. I'm not sure any of these can top their mark from this meet just because all the elements seemed to click at the right time, but all of these guys could be All-Americans no doubt.
Keep in mind, I would bet everybody at the national level wants Francis to get on the track at the Armory and race for a national title. Anybody willing to take it through in 1:21-1:22 sets up the field to go after a sub 1:50 mark if they can hang around and kick. He is like a perfect rabbit. That being said, this rabbit doesn't let people hawk him down. He gets after it and he goes for broke. If he can beat the best in the nation with that same strategy, the legend of Kyle Francis will be forever cemented.
Now there was plenty more to this race than the top 3 guys, although those 3 clearly deserve their praise. Worth noting, Nick Smart had a fantastic day to drop that 1:54 PR. Smart has been due for a nice PR and despite the fact that I had high expectations for the man, he still exceeded mine with a 4th place finish in a very strong field. O'Hara, through the efforts of Smart, Belfatto, James and Nolen, proved a lot this weekend and I think they earned a lot of extra respect from not only me but from much of the state.
Looks like a new chapter in the O'Hara v. Henderson story is beginning .... But I will get to that later
Will Cather had a nice day, but unfortunately the pace that Kyle Francis set was naturally going to send guys out of their comfort zone. I think Cather was definitely capable of 1:53.5 if he ran that race to try and run 1:53.5, but he ran to try and mix it up in the 1:51 range and that took guts. I think Cather is going to continue to improve as he adjusts to being one of the biggest names in a marquee event and by the end of spring I believe his added experience should get him down around 1:51. He also has some of the best training partners in the business over at State College.
That first heat was really gutsy as well. It was a group of guys who were barely under 2 minutes this season (or in some cases not even sub 2 minutes) and a lot of guys got PRs. Connor Holm ran a gutsy race out front and helped keep the pace quick and everyone else stuck their nose in it and tried to hang on. Massive PRs for guys like Stewart and Williams who were suddenly in the 1:57s, Holm ran a 1:56.88 that got him a state medal and Austin Cooper ran a fantastic double. Austin Cooper ran a really nice double this weekend with that 4:23-1:56 double. Cooper is quickly getting a reputation as a great doubler. If you remember back to districts last year he had a double much like this that featured a huge PR at 800m once again. I like Austin Cooper going forward, he is going to be a factor in district one in whatever event he chooses.
As we look ahead to outdoors think about these guys ending up in a state final outdoors:
Kyle Francis
Jeff Wiseman
Joe Logue
Will Cather
Nick Smart
Jim Belfatto
Zach Brehm
Billy Caldwell
Dylin Wilhoite
Kevin Moy
Jon Lewis
This would make for a very intriguing final with a fantastic group of runners. You have a front group that include 4-5 1:50 types plus a slew of 1:52-1:53 types. Plus it is more than likely a new runner off the radar will emerge as a sub 1:55 guy. An assault on the state records and the fastest times in the state would be truly exciting. We saw a phenomenal, legendary 800m final this past weekend, but the outdoor final, 100%, could be even better!
I hope this race, too, can live up to the hype.
First off, I apologize for all the tweeting this weekend, I get excited, but for those of you who were reading my tweets you know how historic this 800m was.
Kyle Francis, leading wire to wire and never looking back, rocked a 1:50.55 800m! Francis went into the race flanked by two of the best 800m kickers in the state and set himself up earlier as a potential sacrificial lamb to Logue or Wiseman's state record run. But he flipped the script on that and never let his competition get within striking distance. His 1:50.55 not only gives him the All-Time State Record, but it also places him tied for #4 US AT Indoors!
Only Robby Andrews, Ben Malone and Zavon Watkins sit ahead of him on that list. Andrews, in his post high school career has gone on to run 1:44.71 and 3:34 for 1500m. Ben Malone had a fantastic senior season and has run under 3:50 for 1500m on multiple occasions in high school. Zavon Watkins finished his high school career with a sub 3 1200m split, a 1:47.99 4x8 split and a variety of sub 1:50 open marks.
Francis tied Mike Granville on the all time list. Granville is the outdoor high school record holder who set the mark with a blazing 1:46 mark in 1996. Clearly Kyle Francis has put himself in some very elite company.
Jeff Wiseman's mark shouldn't be overlooked either. His was the #3 indoors for PA behind only Francis and Ned Willig and Wiseman is somewhere around #12 on the All-Time High School Indoor list which is extremely impressive. Wiseman gave it a fantastic effort against Francis and looked a few times like he could go get him during the race, but was just a tiny bit away. Great race by Jeff for sure.
And Joe Logue ran a time that would have won the state championships almost every year. Only Francis, Mallon and Endress would have beaten his 1:52.02 mark. Logue's time would have been a PA record not too long ago before Mallon busted his the first ever 1:51 indoors back in 2009.
Rarely does a race live up to the hype, and perhaps never does the race exceed the hype! These guys made for a one of a kind event. I'm not sure if any of them will try their hand at a national championship, but all should at least consider it. I wouldn't blame Francis at all if he decides he wants to end his indoor career on this note. That would a phenomenal way to end it. I'm not sure any of these can top their mark from this meet just because all the elements seemed to click at the right time, but all of these guys could be All-Americans no doubt.
Keep in mind, I would bet everybody at the national level wants Francis to get on the track at the Armory and race for a national title. Anybody willing to take it through in 1:21-1:22 sets up the field to go after a sub 1:50 mark if they can hang around and kick. He is like a perfect rabbit. That being said, this rabbit doesn't let people hawk him down. He gets after it and he goes for broke. If he can beat the best in the nation with that same strategy, the legend of Kyle Francis will be forever cemented.
Now there was plenty more to this race than the top 3 guys, although those 3 clearly deserve their praise. Worth noting, Nick Smart had a fantastic day to drop that 1:54 PR. Smart has been due for a nice PR and despite the fact that I had high expectations for the man, he still exceeded mine with a 4th place finish in a very strong field. O'Hara, through the efforts of Smart, Belfatto, James and Nolen, proved a lot this weekend and I think they earned a lot of extra respect from not only me but from much of the state.
Looks like a new chapter in the O'Hara v. Henderson story is beginning .... But I will get to that later
Will Cather had a nice day, but unfortunately the pace that Kyle Francis set was naturally going to send guys out of their comfort zone. I think Cather was definitely capable of 1:53.5 if he ran that race to try and run 1:53.5, but he ran to try and mix it up in the 1:51 range and that took guts. I think Cather is going to continue to improve as he adjusts to being one of the biggest names in a marquee event and by the end of spring I believe his added experience should get him down around 1:51. He also has some of the best training partners in the business over at State College.
That first heat was really gutsy as well. It was a group of guys who were barely under 2 minutes this season (or in some cases not even sub 2 minutes) and a lot of guys got PRs. Connor Holm ran a gutsy race out front and helped keep the pace quick and everyone else stuck their nose in it and tried to hang on. Massive PRs for guys like Stewart and Williams who were suddenly in the 1:57s, Holm ran a 1:56.88 that got him a state medal and Austin Cooper ran a fantastic double. Austin Cooper ran a really nice double this weekend with that 4:23-1:56 double. Cooper is quickly getting a reputation as a great doubler. If you remember back to districts last year he had a double much like this that featured a huge PR at 800m once again. I like Austin Cooper going forward, he is going to be a factor in district one in whatever event he chooses.
As we look ahead to outdoors think about these guys ending up in a state final outdoors:
Kyle Francis
Jeff Wiseman
Joe Logue
Will Cather
Nick Smart
Jim Belfatto
Zach Brehm
Billy Caldwell
Dylin Wilhoite
Kevin Moy
Jon Lewis
This would make for a very intriguing final with a fantastic group of runners. You have a front group that include 4-5 1:50 types plus a slew of 1:52-1:53 types. Plus it is more than likely a new runner off the radar will emerge as a sub 1:55 guy. An assault on the state records and the fastest times in the state would be truly exciting. We saw a phenomenal, legendary 800m final this past weekend, but the outdoor final, 100%, could be even better!
I hope this race, too, can live up to the hype.
USA Team At Indoor Worlds
Here's a couple quick facts for those who want to stay up to date on the US Team going to Sopot. Keep in mind is the top 2 runners who have the standard that will make the team to worlds and the alternate is the highest finisher who does have the A standard (which why you don't see Andrews or Vaughn listed as alternates).
US team for Sopot (reserves in parentheses):
Men
60m: Marvin Bracy, Trell Kimmons, (Joseph Morris)
400m: Kyle Clemons, David Verburg, (Kind Butler)
800m: Erik Sowinski, Nick Symmonds, (Michael Rutt)
1500m: Lopez Lomong, Will Leer, (Garrett Heath)
3000m: Bernard Lagat, Galen Rupp, (Ryan Hill)
60m hurdles: Dominic Berger, Omo Osaghae, (Terrence Trammell)
High jump: Dusty Jonas, Erik Kynard
Long jump: Tyron Stewart, Jeff Henderson
Triple jump: Chris Carter
Shot put: Kurt Roberts, Ryan Whiting, (Joe Kovacs)
Heptathlon: Ashton Eaton
4x400m: Ricky Babineaux, Kind Butler, Kyle Clemons, Clayton Parros, Calvin Smith, David Verburg
Women
60m: Tianna Bartoletta, LaKeisha Lawson, (Barbara Pierre)
400m: Joanna Atkins, Francena McCorory, (Natasha Hastings)
800m: Chanelle Price, Ajee Wilson, (Molly Beckwith-Ludlow)
1500m: Mary Cain, Treniere Moser, (Heather Kampf)
3000m: Gabe Grunewald, Shannon Rowbury, (Jordan Hasay)
60m hurdles: Nia Ali, Janay DeLoach Soukup, (Kristi Castlin)
High jump: Inika McPherson
Pole vault: Mary Saxer, Jenn Suhr, (Kylie Hutson)
Long jump: Tori Bowie, Tori Polk, (Funmi Jimoh)
Shot put: Michelle Carter, Jeneva McCall, (Felisha Johnson)
Pentathlon: Sharon Day-Monroe
4x400m: Joanna Atkins, Monica Hargrove, Natasha Hastings, Jernail Hayes, Francena McCorory, Cassandra Tate
Some of the notable distance events will take place on the following days (all times are eastern time):
Women's 3k Heats 3/7 5:25 AM (Big story here with Grunewald and Rowbury competing)
Men's 1500m Heats 3/7 6:25 AM
Women's 800m Heats 3/7 7:00 AM
Men's 800m Heats 3/7 7:30 AM
Women's 1500m Heats 3/7 1:35 PM
Men's 3000m Heats 3/7 2:25 PM
Women's 1500m Final 3/8 1:00 PM
Men's 1500m Final 3/8 2:00 PM
Men's 3k Final 3/9 10:10 AM
Women's 800m Final 3/9 10:35 AM
Women's 3000m Final 3/9 10:50 AM
Men's 800m Final 3/9 11:20 AM
The events will likely feature former world championship medalists like Bernard Lagat and Galen Rupp (3k), Mo Aman and Nick Symmonds (800m) and Genezebe Dibaba (3000m)
This is also Mary Cain's first big moment where she can potentially medal on the world scene. Watch out.
US team for Sopot (reserves in parentheses):
Men
60m: Marvin Bracy, Trell Kimmons, (Joseph Morris)
400m: Kyle Clemons, David Verburg, (Kind Butler)
800m: Erik Sowinski, Nick Symmonds, (Michael Rutt)
1500m: Lopez Lomong, Will Leer, (Garrett Heath)
3000m: Bernard Lagat, Galen Rupp, (Ryan Hill)
60m hurdles: Dominic Berger, Omo Osaghae, (Terrence Trammell)
High jump: Dusty Jonas, Erik Kynard
Long jump: Tyron Stewart, Jeff Henderson
Triple jump: Chris Carter
Shot put: Kurt Roberts, Ryan Whiting, (Joe Kovacs)
Heptathlon: Ashton Eaton
4x400m: Ricky Babineaux, Kind Butler, Kyle Clemons, Clayton Parros, Calvin Smith, David Verburg
Women
60m: Tianna Bartoletta, LaKeisha Lawson, (Barbara Pierre)
400m: Joanna Atkins, Francena McCorory, (Natasha Hastings)
800m: Chanelle Price, Ajee Wilson, (Molly Beckwith-Ludlow)
1500m: Mary Cain, Treniere Moser, (Heather Kampf)
3000m: Gabe Grunewald, Shannon Rowbury, (Jordan Hasay)
60m hurdles: Nia Ali, Janay DeLoach Soukup, (Kristi Castlin)
High jump: Inika McPherson
Pole vault: Mary Saxer, Jenn Suhr, (Kylie Hutson)
Long jump: Tori Bowie, Tori Polk, (Funmi Jimoh)
Shot put: Michelle Carter, Jeneva McCall, (Felisha Johnson)
Pentathlon: Sharon Day-Monroe
4x400m: Joanna Atkins, Monica Hargrove, Natasha Hastings, Jernail Hayes, Francena McCorory, Cassandra Tate
Some of the notable distance events will take place on the following days (all times are eastern time):
Women's 3k Heats 3/7 5:25 AM (Big story here with Grunewald and Rowbury competing)
Men's 1500m Heats 3/7 6:25 AM
Women's 800m Heats 3/7 7:00 AM
Men's 800m Heats 3/7 7:30 AM
Women's 1500m Heats 3/7 1:35 PM
Men's 3000m Heats 3/7 2:25 PM
Women's 1500m Final 3/8 1:00 PM
Men's 1500m Final 3/8 2:00 PM
Men's 3k Final 3/9 10:10 AM
Women's 800m Final 3/9 10:35 AM
Women's 3000m Final 3/9 10:50 AM
Men's 800m Final 3/9 11:20 AM
The events will likely feature former world championship medalists like Bernard Lagat and Galen Rupp (3k), Mo Aman and Nick Symmonds (800m) and Genezebe Dibaba (3000m)
This is also Mary Cain's first big moment where she can potentially medal on the world scene. Watch out.
PA HS State: DMR Preview
While I'm sitting here might as well knock everything out right now. This will be my final preview post. I'll put the links to my other previews within this post for easy access.
3000m
800m
4x800m
Mile
projected heat sheets
So now let's begin the final distance event: the DMR.
I'm very intrigued to see how Henderson attacks this relay. They have so much depth and have tried so many different combinations it's tough to say exactly what strategy they will employ. They may let Russell lead off and dominate the 1200m leg while leaving Barchet to anchor and Moy to the 8. They may instead try Moy on the 12 and Thompson on the 8. Or they may even just throw in a team of fresh legs let by Stratman who is not entered in the mile and let them go for a medal. I feel the most likely case is the Moy-4 leg- 8 leg- Russell approach where the 8 may end up being someone like Stratman and the 4 someone like Thompson.
The Henderson boys have won the DMR state title twice before (and almost a third time against Wissahickon). The two previous times they won were quite different. The first time, Aldrich, Ferry, Jervis and Shea almost all chased individual glory (Jervis was rested) and despite having a sick Aldrich they still got a quality anchor carry out of Ferry to bring home gold. Then Henderson won again in 2010, with a fresh team besides the doubling Luke Lefebure who grabbed double gold thanks to the team's narrow victory over Wade Endress and the Altoona boys (a fantastic race that we came close to seeing duplicated this year perhaps).
So what's the take away here? Henderson can win it with tired guys, especially if they are the clear cut best team like they were in 2007 (they were national champs the next week). I see this Henderson team the same way I see the 07 team, the 09 Upper Dublin Team and the 13 LaSalle team. They are clearly the best squads so despite a hoard of doubling individuals (Reilly, Palmisano, Stone, Coyle) they could still manage to get the W without all that much fear. Admittedly in 07 and 13 there were some excellent anchors that made Ferry and Coyle work (Crits, Kaulbach, Zingarini, Huemmler), but in the end those top teams could kick to victory. In 09 UD won without much effort at all really it was never close.
I don't see this one getting close. Henderson can get the baton around to Russell in a good spot and I think he will have no problems anchoring the team home for his second gold of the day. I'm not sold on a fast time, but I think they will be under 10:20 which is an impressive mark with doubling guys.
The other reason I think Henderson can dominate this field is that most of its main competitors are doubling all sorts of guys as well. Lower Dauphin is doubling Groh and Nissley (and Weidner), HGPrep has Kardish in the 3k (really hard double), LaSalle is doubling Bilotta, Radnor is doubling Hanson and Holm, Malvern is doubling Hoey, Willis/McDevitt and Ferraiolo. All of these teams will face similar issues to Henderson without the 4:11 anchor to ease their nerves.
Keep in mind, this leaves the door wide open for the kings of the DMR in years past: GFS! They are somehow always in the mix and this year, despite not having the big name studs on the roster, GFS has managed to fly under the radar with a 10:40 at Yale and no real other stand out marks. But once they get to states GFS has grabbed more DMR medals then anybody else since they reincorporated in back in 07. Watch out for these guys as a sleeper.
CR North may also surprise as well. Rob Simmons is a nice leg and Ross Wilson can follow in Zingarini's footsteps quite nicely if he can power through on the final leg. This CRN team is a lot like last year's squad and the Campbell anchored squad that was up near the front in 11 vs. Wissahickon.
LaSalle is the defending champs. Radnor was one of my favorite sleeper teams for the DMR as well. With tired legs I can't pick them for any sort of upset, but they will still be a factor. Malvern Prep's success has been well documented and they have a great young anchor of their own to help carry the load.
Then we have the likes of WC East, CB South, Quakertown and Great Valley one whom, in all likelihood, will snag a medal. Teams that just edge under the SQS or don't even hit it all still manage to find their way on to the podium every year. It's a trend that these teams hope to continue. East will have a tough time because of the doubling Cummings, but Quakertown and CB South are completely fresh. CB South had a nice performance after not hitting the SQS a few years back with Waddington (amazing 1200m guy) and Gregor who medaled at states and then were second at Penn Relays. I'm not sure this team is that good, but they know how to get results in the relays. Great Valley was DMR state champs not too long ago in 12 and probably have that in mind as they toe the line this weekend.
I worry about doubling guys, especially young doubling guys and guys doubling off the 3k. And this year that makes me worry about a lot of different teams. That makes predictions very tricky. I think Henderson controls this race and wins from outfront behind Russell's dominating anchor leg. I think GFS ends up stay sneaky close through the first few legs and holds on to be in the top group. Most likely LaSalle, Malvern and CRN will be among the teams trying to run them down at the end.
My final predictions are as follows:
1. Henderson 10:16.12
2. GFS 10:25.19
3. LaSalle 10:27.80
4. Malvern Prep 10:29.11
5. CRN 10:29.34
6. Radnor 10:36.69
7. CB South 10:40.15
8. Quakertown 10:42.65
3000m
800m
4x800m
Mile
projected heat sheets
So now let's begin the final distance event: the DMR.
I'm very intrigued to see how Henderson attacks this relay. They have so much depth and have tried so many different combinations it's tough to say exactly what strategy they will employ. They may let Russell lead off and dominate the 1200m leg while leaving Barchet to anchor and Moy to the 8. They may instead try Moy on the 12 and Thompson on the 8. Or they may even just throw in a team of fresh legs let by Stratman who is not entered in the mile and let them go for a medal. I feel the most likely case is the Moy-4 leg- 8 leg- Russell approach where the 8 may end up being someone like Stratman and the 4 someone like Thompson.
The Henderson boys have won the DMR state title twice before (and almost a third time against Wissahickon). The two previous times they won were quite different. The first time, Aldrich, Ferry, Jervis and Shea almost all chased individual glory (Jervis was rested) and despite having a sick Aldrich they still got a quality anchor carry out of Ferry to bring home gold. Then Henderson won again in 2010, with a fresh team besides the doubling Luke Lefebure who grabbed double gold thanks to the team's narrow victory over Wade Endress and the Altoona boys (a fantastic race that we came close to seeing duplicated this year perhaps).
So what's the take away here? Henderson can win it with tired guys, especially if they are the clear cut best team like they were in 2007 (they were national champs the next week). I see this Henderson team the same way I see the 07 team, the 09 Upper Dublin Team and the 13 LaSalle team. They are clearly the best squads so despite a hoard of doubling individuals (Reilly, Palmisano, Stone, Coyle) they could still manage to get the W without all that much fear. Admittedly in 07 and 13 there were some excellent anchors that made Ferry and Coyle work (Crits, Kaulbach, Zingarini, Huemmler), but in the end those top teams could kick to victory. In 09 UD won without much effort at all really it was never close.
I don't see this one getting close. Henderson can get the baton around to Russell in a good spot and I think he will have no problems anchoring the team home for his second gold of the day. I'm not sold on a fast time, but I think they will be under 10:20 which is an impressive mark with doubling guys.
The other reason I think Henderson can dominate this field is that most of its main competitors are doubling all sorts of guys as well. Lower Dauphin is doubling Groh and Nissley (and Weidner), HGPrep has Kardish in the 3k (really hard double), LaSalle is doubling Bilotta, Radnor is doubling Hanson and Holm, Malvern is doubling Hoey, Willis/McDevitt and Ferraiolo. All of these teams will face similar issues to Henderson without the 4:11 anchor to ease their nerves.
Keep in mind, this leaves the door wide open for the kings of the DMR in years past: GFS! They are somehow always in the mix and this year, despite not having the big name studs on the roster, GFS has managed to fly under the radar with a 10:40 at Yale and no real other stand out marks. But once they get to states GFS has grabbed more DMR medals then anybody else since they reincorporated in back in 07. Watch out for these guys as a sleeper.
CR North may also surprise as well. Rob Simmons is a nice leg and Ross Wilson can follow in Zingarini's footsteps quite nicely if he can power through on the final leg. This CRN team is a lot like last year's squad and the Campbell anchored squad that was up near the front in 11 vs. Wissahickon.
LaSalle is the defending champs. Radnor was one of my favorite sleeper teams for the DMR as well. With tired legs I can't pick them for any sort of upset, but they will still be a factor. Malvern Prep's success has been well documented and they have a great young anchor of their own to help carry the load.
Then we have the likes of WC East, CB South, Quakertown and Great Valley one whom, in all likelihood, will snag a medal. Teams that just edge under the SQS or don't even hit it all still manage to find their way on to the podium every year. It's a trend that these teams hope to continue. East will have a tough time because of the doubling Cummings, but Quakertown and CB South are completely fresh. CB South had a nice performance after not hitting the SQS a few years back with Waddington (amazing 1200m guy) and Gregor who medaled at states and then were second at Penn Relays. I'm not sure this team is that good, but they know how to get results in the relays. Great Valley was DMR state champs not too long ago in 12 and probably have that in mind as they toe the line this weekend.
I worry about doubling guys, especially young doubling guys and guys doubling off the 3k. And this year that makes me worry about a lot of different teams. That makes predictions very tricky. I think Henderson controls this race and wins from outfront behind Russell's dominating anchor leg. I think GFS ends up stay sneaky close through the first few legs and holds on to be in the top group. Most likely LaSalle, Malvern and CRN will be among the teams trying to run them down at the end.
My final predictions are as follows:
1. Henderson 10:16.12
2. GFS 10:25.19
3. LaSalle 10:27.80
4. Malvern Prep 10:29.11
5. CRN 10:29.34
6. Radnor 10:36.69
7. CB South 10:40.15
8. Quakertown 10:42.65
PA HS States: 4x800m Preview
Hopefully these posts aren't coming in too fast, but I'd like to have all the previews up well before states if possible. So I'm going to keep plowing along. I've got all the individual events previewed below and this will start my section on the relays.
The cool think about the relays is we can usually tell which teams are going for it right away. Consider for example State College who held out 3 potential 800m medalists in order to go after the W (and state record in the 4x8). Then you have teams like Altoona who not only elected to keep all their runners fresh for the relays, but chose the 4x8 over the DMR where they were PA #2.
On the flip side you have teams like O'Hara who are doubling a variety of key legs in addition to Henderson and Lower Dauphin in the DM (we will get to them later). Can their legs come back and be a factor in the relays? Or will everybody be too spent?
That is the difficult question I will wrestle with as I move ahead on these predictions. First, it is worth noting that I think the 4x8s will be split into two sections (which is described a few posts down). In the slower section, we have teams like Pennridge, CB East, Bensalem, CR South and Bonner who all will have at least their fastest leg on the double (unless that fastest leg chooses to save up for the 4x4 or something of the sort). It's hard to figure out who to pick in this heat.
It all comes down to who is ready to double and who has the best supporting cast. I think the winner of this heat will likely be either Pennridge (but only if Logue is on the relay, which it's very possible will not be the case), Bensalem or CR South. I think that Francis, Logue and Wiseman will all be pretty tired after the previous 800m final, but one of them should be able to dig down and uncork a monster double running guys down from some of these other teams without the big names. I would bet it most likely ends up being whoever did the worst in the open 8 who has that little extra spark on the 4x8 to try and help the team. If I have to pick I go Bensalem over CR South just because Bensalem is the defending champs. But this may end up being a CR South team like the Dreeman team that did so well a couple years back.
In the fast heat, I think State College is a heavy favorite here, despite an excellent year from the O'Hara team and the lurking sleepers of Altoona, Penncrest, DT East and North Penn. Look, I think O'Hara is a fantastic team and I believe they will give Henderson a run for their money in the DMR whenever the two meet again (Nationals I'd imagine?), but with Belfatto, Smart and James all on the double (James on the double from the 3k!), it's hard to bet on these guys for an upset. I think last year when Savage tried the 3k-4x8 double we all saw how brutally tough that double is. James is one tough son of a gun (definitely on my top 5 toughest runners list), but I'm not sure he can swing anything better than a 1:58ish on the double. That just ain't gonna cut it against State College.
Here is the thing about SC, they have the home track advantage, their slowest leg has an open PR this season under 1:58 (1:57.7h) and they have one of, if not the, best 800m runners in the state on the anchor. Cather will be doubling and that won't be easy, but the rest of the guys will be fresh and ready to drop something fast.
Keep in mind the state record currently sits at 7:45.06 by CB West. The splits on that relay were: 1:56.7, 1:57.1, 1:56.3 and 1:54.7. They had Abington (who at the time were the state record holders) pushing them for part of the race, but most of it was just good old fashion front running.
So do I think SC has a shot at this record? I think the competition needs to be there but in my head I can see splits that average out to about 7:44-7:46 without needing to be all that bold about it. The next best relay I can see is maybe 7:50-52, so I don't know if that will be enough to push SC to the record or not, but it should be fun to watch.
Where will the rest of the pieces fall? I think Altoona is a great team to watch here. They have a similar home track advantage and have had 3 guys already at 2:00 or faster in the open if my memory serves. They are clearly all in for the relay and that will go a long way towards beating some other top tier teams. I think O'Hara will still battle for the #2 spot, despite having a tired squad, but in the end, I can't see them hanging with A-toon.
I like the DT East team and the North Penn squad a lot going into this weekend. I think DT East has proven they have 3 sub 2 legs on the roster based on the individual performances. Caldwell is a fairly strong doubler, and a mile-4x8 double isn't anything too crazy. DT East could definitely be under 8 minutes and in that chase pack behind SC. It will be interesting to see if DTE uses Caldwell on the third leg as they did last year outdoors which proved to be a very smart strategy.
As for North Penn they are ALWAYS good at the 4x8. Without fail they run it and they run it well. This year they have a strong bunch of athletes to go with their strong mid-d training. I think NP will almost definitely run sub 8 minutes and will be very dangerous for 2nd place. Grace will try the double but other than that they kept their pieces fresh for the relay.
You can never truly count out teams like Upper Darby at a meet like this. Plenty of potential to surprise here. They were one of my big sleepers a year ago and they came up short, but I won't hesitate to bet on them again. Abington may be returning to old form as well and be a nice sleeper.
You also have to seriously consider Pennsbury in this race. I'll admit it, I picked against them basically every chance a got a year ago and Sam Webb and Connor Harriman doubled like men out there and proved me wrong consistently for doubting them. Now the pressure is on Sauer and O'Connell to pull of the double with Harriman and Webb (I'm asusming) not on the line up this weekend. I'm doubting they can truely compete with these other teams on those tired legs, but with a state title on their minds, they need every point they can get. Be on the look out.
St. Joe's may be able to surprise as well. They bowed out of the DMR despite having run 10:49 and getting the SQS. They must have a lot of confidence in their 4x8 potential after a solid showing last year and will also have a completely fresh team which is always dangerous.
Here's how I have things shaping up in the end:
1. State College 7:46.77
2. Altoona 7:52.90
3. O'Hara 7:53.40
4. North Penn 7:54.49
5. DT East 7:56.16
6. Penncrest 7:57.87
7. St. Joe's Prep 8:05.66
8. Upper Darby 8:06.50
The cool think about the relays is we can usually tell which teams are going for it right away. Consider for example State College who held out 3 potential 800m medalists in order to go after the W (and state record in the 4x8). Then you have teams like Altoona who not only elected to keep all their runners fresh for the relays, but chose the 4x8 over the DMR where they were PA #2.
On the flip side you have teams like O'Hara who are doubling a variety of key legs in addition to Henderson and Lower Dauphin in the DM (we will get to them later). Can their legs come back and be a factor in the relays? Or will everybody be too spent?
That is the difficult question I will wrestle with as I move ahead on these predictions. First, it is worth noting that I think the 4x8s will be split into two sections (which is described a few posts down). In the slower section, we have teams like Pennridge, CB East, Bensalem, CR South and Bonner who all will have at least their fastest leg on the double (unless that fastest leg chooses to save up for the 4x4 or something of the sort). It's hard to figure out who to pick in this heat.
It all comes down to who is ready to double and who has the best supporting cast. I think the winner of this heat will likely be either Pennridge (but only if Logue is on the relay, which it's very possible will not be the case), Bensalem or CR South. I think that Francis, Logue and Wiseman will all be pretty tired after the previous 800m final, but one of them should be able to dig down and uncork a monster double running guys down from some of these other teams without the big names. I would bet it most likely ends up being whoever did the worst in the open 8 who has that little extra spark on the 4x8 to try and help the team. If I have to pick I go Bensalem over CR South just because Bensalem is the defending champs. But this may end up being a CR South team like the Dreeman team that did so well a couple years back.
In the fast heat, I think State College is a heavy favorite here, despite an excellent year from the O'Hara team and the lurking sleepers of Altoona, Penncrest, DT East and North Penn. Look, I think O'Hara is a fantastic team and I believe they will give Henderson a run for their money in the DMR whenever the two meet again (Nationals I'd imagine?), but with Belfatto, Smart and James all on the double (James on the double from the 3k!), it's hard to bet on these guys for an upset. I think last year when Savage tried the 3k-4x8 double we all saw how brutally tough that double is. James is one tough son of a gun (definitely on my top 5 toughest runners list), but I'm not sure he can swing anything better than a 1:58ish on the double. That just ain't gonna cut it against State College.
Here is the thing about SC, they have the home track advantage, their slowest leg has an open PR this season under 1:58 (1:57.7h) and they have one of, if not the, best 800m runners in the state on the anchor. Cather will be doubling and that won't be easy, but the rest of the guys will be fresh and ready to drop something fast.
Keep in mind the state record currently sits at 7:45.06 by CB West. The splits on that relay were: 1:56.7, 1:57.1, 1:56.3 and 1:54.7. They had Abington (who at the time were the state record holders) pushing them for part of the race, but most of it was just good old fashion front running.
So do I think SC has a shot at this record? I think the competition needs to be there but in my head I can see splits that average out to about 7:44-7:46 without needing to be all that bold about it. The next best relay I can see is maybe 7:50-52, so I don't know if that will be enough to push SC to the record or not, but it should be fun to watch.
Where will the rest of the pieces fall? I think Altoona is a great team to watch here. They have a similar home track advantage and have had 3 guys already at 2:00 or faster in the open if my memory serves. They are clearly all in for the relay and that will go a long way towards beating some other top tier teams. I think O'Hara will still battle for the #2 spot, despite having a tired squad, but in the end, I can't see them hanging with A-toon.
I like the DT East team and the North Penn squad a lot going into this weekend. I think DT East has proven they have 3 sub 2 legs on the roster based on the individual performances. Caldwell is a fairly strong doubler, and a mile-4x8 double isn't anything too crazy. DT East could definitely be under 8 minutes and in that chase pack behind SC. It will be interesting to see if DTE uses Caldwell on the third leg as they did last year outdoors which proved to be a very smart strategy.
As for North Penn they are ALWAYS good at the 4x8. Without fail they run it and they run it well. This year they have a strong bunch of athletes to go with their strong mid-d training. I think NP will almost definitely run sub 8 minutes and will be very dangerous for 2nd place. Grace will try the double but other than that they kept their pieces fresh for the relay.
You can never truly count out teams like Upper Darby at a meet like this. Plenty of potential to surprise here. They were one of my big sleepers a year ago and they came up short, but I won't hesitate to bet on them again. Abington may be returning to old form as well and be a nice sleeper.
You also have to seriously consider Pennsbury in this race. I'll admit it, I picked against them basically every chance a got a year ago and Sam Webb and Connor Harriman doubled like men out there and proved me wrong consistently for doubting them. Now the pressure is on Sauer and O'Connell to pull of the double with Harriman and Webb (I'm asusming) not on the line up this weekend. I'm doubting they can truely compete with these other teams on those tired legs, but with a state title on their minds, they need every point they can get. Be on the look out.
St. Joe's may be able to surprise as well. They bowed out of the DMR despite having run 10:49 and getting the SQS. They must have a lot of confidence in their 4x8 potential after a solid showing last year and will also have a completely fresh team which is always dangerous.
Here's how I have things shaping up in the end:
1. State College 7:46.77
2. Altoona 7:52.90
3. O'Hara 7:53.40
4. North Penn 7:54.49
5. DT East 7:56.16
6. Penncrest 7:57.87
7. St. Joe's Prep 8:05.66
8. Upper Darby 8:06.50
PA HS States: 3000m Preview
The Mile, 800m and Projected Heat Sheets are all listed out below this post and are definitely worth a read if you are interested in the state meet.
Now that business has been attended to, let's move on.
I'm gonna start this post by letting you on some of my golden rules in predictions. I think they apply fairly nicely to this event this year.
First off, I almost never pick guys who are, for the first time in their life, racing with the confidence that they can win the state title. If you think back on most state champions, it's not their first rodeo. They have had the heartbreak before and they are hungry. Or they have the experience and they are ready. There are definitely exceptions and it's far from a fool proof strategy, but often times guys have to be ready to win. I think Huemmler, Norris and Martin (outdoors) are great examples of this. In the true distance events, experience and age are huge factors at the state championship. I almost always pick seniors, and I never pick sophomores, especially as you move up in distance.
Second, I do not like guys who run the longer races too many weeks in a row. Just ask Ross Wilson last year. He proved me wrong by placing as high as he did, but if you follow my predictions, I was never on the bandwagon for him to win states because of how many 3200m he had run in a row. I think that there is definitely a tiring effect over the weeks and a lot of people fall victim. Again, plenty of exceptions, but it's just one of my rules.
Lastly, I'm not going to pick a guy to win who hasn't won a big race or two before. You have to show evidence that you can rise to the occasion and win at big meets like Meet of Champs, the Carnival, Kevin Dare and the like. If you can't show me you can win those meets, it's hard to pick you to win THE meet.
So now that you know my secrets, allow me to move forward with my predictions for the state 3k race. This race is going to be really fun to watch. I'm a big fan of the field that has been assembled because there are so many guys who I feel lack the proper respect they deserve. Colin Martin has been an absolute stud this year. He has been a tear and has certainly been able to win big races. No one has been able to touch him this season on the track. That being said, he has run a lot of hard 3ks in a row now ... I'm worried about how that will translate to this upcoming state meet.
Dominic Deluca has been strong this year despite only having two real noteworthy meets where he won the 3k handily in an impressive solo effort over Nissley and he won the mile easily over some quality guys at the Carnival. Is Deluca ready to assume the spotlight? This guy has shown he has the potential to do something big at this meet without a doubt.
Those are the big names, then you have a slew of other guys who believe they can win the title. This is where the interesting pieces of racing will unfold. I want to give everyone credit who can be in the medals, but I don't have the time or space to go through everybody individually. Just know, if you are in this field, I think you can place top 5 at this meet.
Here's how I see things playing out. Perhaps not a blazing pace early, but some combination of Martin, Cummings, Reilly and Kardish out front to keep things quick. The second half of the race is where things will really get moving and the pace will break things down to a pack of 5: Martin, Deluca, Brophy, Reilly and James.
There could easily be more in that pack, I like McGoey a lot as a sleeper and I'm glad he is in this field. I also think Nissley, Molino, Marston and certainly Kardish can hang around in that pack. Cummings is a very interesting case here as well who could hang with that pack. He has a nice resume but has not been a factor in the state 3k conversation since December. Don't forget about him in this race, he could be very dangerous.
Comber and Power are two guys who a lot of people overlooked for the medals in XC. We have to be careful if we overlook them too much here. I see both of them as potential 8:48-8:52 guys, especially Power who I think might be the best sleeper of this bunch.
The final couple medal spots will be a mix of guys who are able to hold on after going for it at the beginning, and guys who ran strategic and picked people off over the second half of the race. My boy Francis Ferruzzi hung back in the beginning and picked off half the field to place 5th a few years back because he hung back and laid off the hot pace. He missed out on any shot of the title, but he was able to snag a medal, and a pretty high one at that, because he ran strategically within himself. The guys who grab medals will either be ones who surprise themselves with how well they hold on or guys who understand their abilities as a runner very well.
But in the front I see those 5 guys I mentioned, and I believe one of those 5 will win this race. As things continue to get going over the last few laps I expect things to be still relatively in control. I see James and Martin starting the push to try and break their competitors over the last 800m or so. As we come through the final 400m, Deluca will take over the lead and see who can come with him.
Over the last 200m, I think a big kick will be laid down to allow for an upset victory.
I'm picking Jake Brophy to win this 3k. I'm basically violating every rule in my book by doing this, but I have had a hunch all season that this was going to be Brophy's year. I'm certainly worried he is a little inexperienced at this kind of level to go out and win a state title as just a sophomore in a grueling event like the 3k, but I think his kick is going to carry him home in a big surprise.
Besides, I already picked arguably the biggest favorite in each of my previous two predictions (and I'm likely going to pick the favorites in the 4x8 and the DMR as well) so this will be my bold upset pick of the day.
When the dust settles here is how I have it all going down
1. Jake Brophy 8:36.71
2. Dominic Deluca 8:37.29
3. Kevin James 8:38.00
4. Patrick Reilly 8:38.95
5. Colin Martin 8:39.21
6. Paul Power 8:47.18
7. Andrew Martson 8:48.31
8. Cole Nissley 8:51.90
(I would like to say that if Brophy doesn't win, I think Martin will probably take it. How does that make sense? It doesn't it's just what goes on in my head ...)
This was a really hard one to pick for me as well, I like a lot of these guys as runners and root for a lot of them since I have watched many of them grow into their own over the past few years. I'm very excited to watch everything paly out and I think the battle for the top spots and the last medals is going to be extraordinary stuff.
Now that business has been attended to, let's move on.
I'm gonna start this post by letting you on some of my golden rules in predictions. I think they apply fairly nicely to this event this year.
First off, I almost never pick guys who are, for the first time in their life, racing with the confidence that they can win the state title. If you think back on most state champions, it's not their first rodeo. They have had the heartbreak before and they are hungry. Or they have the experience and they are ready. There are definitely exceptions and it's far from a fool proof strategy, but often times guys have to be ready to win. I think Huemmler, Norris and Martin (outdoors) are great examples of this. In the true distance events, experience and age are huge factors at the state championship. I almost always pick seniors, and I never pick sophomores, especially as you move up in distance.
Second, I do not like guys who run the longer races too many weeks in a row. Just ask Ross Wilson last year. He proved me wrong by placing as high as he did, but if you follow my predictions, I was never on the bandwagon for him to win states because of how many 3200m he had run in a row. I think that there is definitely a tiring effect over the weeks and a lot of people fall victim. Again, plenty of exceptions, but it's just one of my rules.
Lastly, I'm not going to pick a guy to win who hasn't won a big race or two before. You have to show evidence that you can rise to the occasion and win at big meets like Meet of Champs, the Carnival, Kevin Dare and the like. If you can't show me you can win those meets, it's hard to pick you to win THE meet.
So now that you know my secrets, allow me to move forward with my predictions for the state 3k race. This race is going to be really fun to watch. I'm a big fan of the field that has been assembled because there are so many guys who I feel lack the proper respect they deserve. Colin Martin has been an absolute stud this year. He has been a tear and has certainly been able to win big races. No one has been able to touch him this season on the track. That being said, he has run a lot of hard 3ks in a row now ... I'm worried about how that will translate to this upcoming state meet.
Dominic Deluca has been strong this year despite only having two real noteworthy meets where he won the 3k handily in an impressive solo effort over Nissley and he won the mile easily over some quality guys at the Carnival. Is Deluca ready to assume the spotlight? This guy has shown he has the potential to do something big at this meet without a doubt.
Those are the big names, then you have a slew of other guys who believe they can win the title. This is where the interesting pieces of racing will unfold. I want to give everyone credit who can be in the medals, but I don't have the time or space to go through everybody individually. Just know, if you are in this field, I think you can place top 5 at this meet.
Here's how I see things playing out. Perhaps not a blazing pace early, but some combination of Martin, Cummings, Reilly and Kardish out front to keep things quick. The second half of the race is where things will really get moving and the pace will break things down to a pack of 5: Martin, Deluca, Brophy, Reilly and James.
There could easily be more in that pack, I like McGoey a lot as a sleeper and I'm glad he is in this field. I also think Nissley, Molino, Marston and certainly Kardish can hang around in that pack. Cummings is a very interesting case here as well who could hang with that pack. He has a nice resume but has not been a factor in the state 3k conversation since December. Don't forget about him in this race, he could be very dangerous.
Comber and Power are two guys who a lot of people overlooked for the medals in XC. We have to be careful if we overlook them too much here. I see both of them as potential 8:48-8:52 guys, especially Power who I think might be the best sleeper of this bunch.
The final couple medal spots will be a mix of guys who are able to hold on after going for it at the beginning, and guys who ran strategic and picked people off over the second half of the race. My boy Francis Ferruzzi hung back in the beginning and picked off half the field to place 5th a few years back because he hung back and laid off the hot pace. He missed out on any shot of the title, but he was able to snag a medal, and a pretty high one at that, because he ran strategically within himself. The guys who grab medals will either be ones who surprise themselves with how well they hold on or guys who understand their abilities as a runner very well.
But in the front I see those 5 guys I mentioned, and I believe one of those 5 will win this race. As things continue to get going over the last few laps I expect things to be still relatively in control. I see James and Martin starting the push to try and break their competitors over the last 800m or so. As we come through the final 400m, Deluca will take over the lead and see who can come with him.
Over the last 200m, I think a big kick will be laid down to allow for an upset victory.
I'm picking Jake Brophy to win this 3k. I'm basically violating every rule in my book by doing this, but I have had a hunch all season that this was going to be Brophy's year. I'm certainly worried he is a little inexperienced at this kind of level to go out and win a state title as just a sophomore in a grueling event like the 3k, but I think his kick is going to carry him home in a big surprise.
Besides, I already picked arguably the biggest favorite in each of my previous two predictions (and I'm likely going to pick the favorites in the 4x8 and the DMR as well) so this will be my bold upset pick of the day.
When the dust settles here is how I have it all going down
1. Jake Brophy 8:36.71
2. Dominic Deluca 8:37.29
3. Kevin James 8:38.00
4. Patrick Reilly 8:38.95
5. Colin Martin 8:39.21
6. Paul Power 8:47.18
7. Andrew Martson 8:48.31
8. Cole Nissley 8:51.90
(I would like to say that if Brophy doesn't win, I think Martin will probably take it. How does that make sense? It doesn't it's just what goes on in my head ...)
This was a really hard one to pick for me as well, I like a lot of these guys as runners and root for a lot of them since I have watched many of them grow into their own over the past few years. I'm very excited to watch everything paly out and I think the battle for the top spots and the last medals is going to be extraordinary stuff.
PA HS States: 800m Preview
The previous post discusses the mile, so if you would like to read what I have to say about that it is below. You can also find my projected heat sheets a couple posts down as well that you may need as a point of reference during this post. I am predicting two heats, one of 8 and one of 11. This is a bit of a bold prediction in itself, but there is a clear drop off in seeding between Wilhoite (1:57.82) and Allen/O'Connell (1:59.00 for both) and I doubt we would see an O'Connell-Allen split considering they are at the exact same seed. Thus I went with my projection of 8 and 11.
With that out of the way, let's begin.
Heat 1 is an interesting assortment of runners led by O'Connell and Allen as mentioned above, but also featuring some sleepers like Meyers, Thompson, Ferraiolo and Holm just to name a few. Cooper is in this heat, but is doubling off the mile. For those of you who have not read much of my stuff before, you probably don't know how strongly I am concerned with doubling individuals. When I am predicting, I have a very hard time picking against fresh legs and thus picking against guys on the double or triple all else equal. Especially in the distance events. So Cooper may surprise here (like he did at Districts on the double last spring with a nice run), but ultimately I see him out of the medals at this event.
Holm is my guy out of this heat if I have to pick a name. I like Thompson and Ferraiolo's ability, but I'm not sure I can see them winning this heat in the same way I can see Holm doing it. I wouldn't sleep on O'Connell in this spot as I think he can definitely make strong improvements since that 1:59 race, but I am worried about him feeling compelled to lead this race out fast to try and land his medal position. Upper Dublin's Andy Stewart is in the race. I feel I ought to give him a mention seeing as he is from my Alma Mater. It will be his first time at the state meet so good luck to him!
Holm is the guy I see winning this heat, probably down around 1:57 with a bunch of guys in the 1:58 range giving chase. Holm may be able to snag a medal, but that top heat of guys is pretty darn deep and that heat will get dragged out to a nice and fast pace which makes it difficult for Holm to sneak into the medals.
The fast heat is going to be something special. I'm really excited to see this guys square off even if the field doesn't include two studs in Lewis and Brehm as we had previously hoped. Francis, Wiseman, Logue and Cather are the big dogs here. Smart has been having a stellar last couple months that included a great finish at XC states and some quality 800m last spring, which indicates to me he is in for a big season best this weekend. That being said, even if he is down in the low 1:55s (a big Season Best kinda mark) he is still going to be 2ish seconds off the leaders. I like Sauer as well and I appreciate the fight he gave against Brehm, but Sauer just might be a year away from hanging with these speedsters. This is Sauer's first real appearence at the top level of the state as an individual rather than a key piece on a relay. He will grow up a lot from this race.
Wilhoite has been a stud 800m runner for a few years in a row now and Penn Hills knows how to produce high quality guys both indoors and out. I see him as a heavy favorite to be on the medal stand but, much like Smart, I can't quite place him in my top 4 guys. Mercado has had a very nice season and is coming off a great day at Lehigh, but again I just don't know if he is ready to run 1:53 low at this point.
So how does this race between the top 4 play out? I go back and forth on who I think will take home Gold. Cather is running phenomenally right now and has helped but this State College relay in all time kind of territory. He goes out hard typically and will fight the whole way to get to the line first. He also has a touch of home track advantage, being from State College. Kyle Francis also is not afraid of getting out hard and looking to hold on. He was the cold blooded killer on the anchor leg for Bensalem last outdoors against Kunzweiler and he has Brad Rivera's advice on how to win from the front in a stacked field to go back to. Jeff Wiseman is a fantastic racer and comes into this state meet with a time much faster than what he had ran going into last year's race. He dropped about 5 seconds off his SB last year at states if he does that again he would absolutely crush the state record (not saying I think that will happen, because it won't but just keep that stat in mind). Wiseman has a nice finish and works very hard to hold off his kickers on the final straight. He finds his way to get his torso across first a lot of times in big races. And finally we have Joe Logue who will likely be able to sit back on all these guys and throw down the gauntlet on the backstretch and try and take down a state gold. He has the best open PR in the field and has a slew of performances at 1:53 or faster on his resume.
This is a brutal one to pick. But in the end, I need to try and back up my 2014 Bold Predictions post I guess and stick with my guy from Day 1, Kyle Francis (http://www.therealtrain.blogspot.com/2013/12/bold-predictions-for-2014_23.html). I predicted he would drop a 1:51.59 to win state gold and I guess if nothing else I ought to stay true to myself. I'm going to pick Wiseman to get up for second, Louge for 3rd and Cather for 4th. I see this being a blanket finish at the end and as we watch we won't be able to tell who placed where until everything flashes up on the big board.
In the end my prediction for the medals is the following:
1. Kyle Francis 1:51.59
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:52.17
3. Joe Logue 1:52.33
4. Will Cather 1:52.49
5. Dylin Wilhoite 1:55.88
6. Nick Smart 1:55.95
7. Alek Sauer 1:56.69
8. Connor Holm 1:57.19
Tell me what you think!
With that out of the way, let's begin.
Heat 1 is an interesting assortment of runners led by O'Connell and Allen as mentioned above, but also featuring some sleepers like Meyers, Thompson, Ferraiolo and Holm just to name a few. Cooper is in this heat, but is doubling off the mile. For those of you who have not read much of my stuff before, you probably don't know how strongly I am concerned with doubling individuals. When I am predicting, I have a very hard time picking against fresh legs and thus picking against guys on the double or triple all else equal. Especially in the distance events. So Cooper may surprise here (like he did at Districts on the double last spring with a nice run), but ultimately I see him out of the medals at this event.
Holm is my guy out of this heat if I have to pick a name. I like Thompson and Ferraiolo's ability, but I'm not sure I can see them winning this heat in the same way I can see Holm doing it. I wouldn't sleep on O'Connell in this spot as I think he can definitely make strong improvements since that 1:59 race, but I am worried about him feeling compelled to lead this race out fast to try and land his medal position. Upper Dublin's Andy Stewart is in the race. I feel I ought to give him a mention seeing as he is from my Alma Mater. It will be his first time at the state meet so good luck to him!
Holm is the guy I see winning this heat, probably down around 1:57 with a bunch of guys in the 1:58 range giving chase. Holm may be able to snag a medal, but that top heat of guys is pretty darn deep and that heat will get dragged out to a nice and fast pace which makes it difficult for Holm to sneak into the medals.
The fast heat is going to be something special. I'm really excited to see this guys square off even if the field doesn't include two studs in Lewis and Brehm as we had previously hoped. Francis, Wiseman, Logue and Cather are the big dogs here. Smart has been having a stellar last couple months that included a great finish at XC states and some quality 800m last spring, which indicates to me he is in for a big season best this weekend. That being said, even if he is down in the low 1:55s (a big Season Best kinda mark) he is still going to be 2ish seconds off the leaders. I like Sauer as well and I appreciate the fight he gave against Brehm, but Sauer just might be a year away from hanging with these speedsters. This is Sauer's first real appearence at the top level of the state as an individual rather than a key piece on a relay. He will grow up a lot from this race.
Wilhoite has been a stud 800m runner for a few years in a row now and Penn Hills knows how to produce high quality guys both indoors and out. I see him as a heavy favorite to be on the medal stand but, much like Smart, I can't quite place him in my top 4 guys. Mercado has had a very nice season and is coming off a great day at Lehigh, but again I just don't know if he is ready to run 1:53 low at this point.
So how does this race between the top 4 play out? I go back and forth on who I think will take home Gold. Cather is running phenomenally right now and has helped but this State College relay in all time kind of territory. He goes out hard typically and will fight the whole way to get to the line first. He also has a touch of home track advantage, being from State College. Kyle Francis also is not afraid of getting out hard and looking to hold on. He was the cold blooded killer on the anchor leg for Bensalem last outdoors against Kunzweiler and he has Brad Rivera's advice on how to win from the front in a stacked field to go back to. Jeff Wiseman is a fantastic racer and comes into this state meet with a time much faster than what he had ran going into last year's race. He dropped about 5 seconds off his SB last year at states if he does that again he would absolutely crush the state record (not saying I think that will happen, because it won't but just keep that stat in mind). Wiseman has a nice finish and works very hard to hold off his kickers on the final straight. He finds his way to get his torso across first a lot of times in big races. And finally we have Joe Logue who will likely be able to sit back on all these guys and throw down the gauntlet on the backstretch and try and take down a state gold. He has the best open PR in the field and has a slew of performances at 1:53 or faster on his resume.
This is a brutal one to pick. But in the end, I need to try and back up my 2014 Bold Predictions post I guess and stick with my guy from Day 1, Kyle Francis (http://www.therealtrain.blogspot.com/2013/12/bold-predictions-for-2014_23.html). I predicted he would drop a 1:51.59 to win state gold and I guess if nothing else I ought to stay true to myself. I'm going to pick Wiseman to get up for second, Louge for 3rd and Cather for 4th. I see this being a blanket finish at the end and as we watch we won't be able to tell who placed where until everything flashes up on the big board.
In the end my prediction for the medals is the following:
1. Kyle Francis 1:51.59
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:52.17
3. Joe Logue 1:52.33
4. Will Cather 1:52.49
5. Dylin Wilhoite 1:55.88
6. Nick Smart 1:55.95
7. Alek Sauer 1:56.69
8. Connor Holm 1:57.19
Tell me what you think!
PA HS States: Mile Preview
First off, you are following the Gabe Grunewald controversy at USAs this past weekend, things are heating up. The most recent insider story can be found on letsrun.com, I retweeted Nick Symmonds's tweet that had the link attached to it as well if you would like a direct link.
But in the words of Bane, now is not the time for the 3k, that comes later. Let's talk about this year's PA states mile.
In the post below this, I laid out what I think the heats will look like for the upcoming state championship in the mile. It looks like it most likely will be a 3 heat final with some big names spread out throughout the heats. Let's talk about each of my projected heats.
In Heat 1 we have a nice crop of sleepers to watch for. The thing that you need if a slow heat is going to produce a fast time is somebody willing to take it out hard, a sacrificial lamb of sorts. That doesn't mean that this runner doesn't necessarily keep up this blistering pace (Ed Schrom in 2010), but there needs to at least be someone crazy enough to get things going and not care about whether or not they are risking a blow up. There aren't enough guys with that much guts/boldness to do that out there.
But Colin Abert in Heat 1 is a guy who might do it. Abert is only seeded around 4:30 going into this meet, which likely isn't a good indication of this guys true talent level. Also we know Abert is not afraid to take out the pace. He did it in XC a variety of times and he did it last year indoors. So this race will certainly have a shot at getting a winner down around 4:24. But who can get to the line first in that kind of mark?
Honestly, I'm not sure I expect anyone to be in the medals out of this first heat, but that doesn't mean there isn't talent here. Abert, when fully healthy, is a dynamite XC guy with solid 4:21ish speed and obviously impressive strength (would have loved to have seen him in the 3k). He will be flanked by fellow XC state medalist Jeff Van Kotten, 800m specialist Joe Sullivan, Watson Hanson from Radnor and Seamus Collins from Henderson to name a few out of this field.
Sullivan and Hanson are my sleepers here. Hanson has struggled a tad as of late, but I really like this guy's ability. I think if he can just stick his nose in there off a fast pace, he could come how with a nice PR in the 4:25-4:27 range. If Sullivan hangs on to the bell, he has the wheels at the end to go win the race. The mile might be a touch out of his sweet spot, but he has had great success racing the other top PCL guys and I'm sure he will not be afraid to get after it.
If I have to guess who is winning this heat, I'd say Hanson takes it over a crew that includes Abert, VanKooten and Sullivan.
Heat 2 is intriguing here as well. I think this heat also has a guy willing to keep the pace hot in Groh. Plus Reiny Barchet is in this heat and probably has something to prove running in his off event. Barchet isn't going to wait around and let things be tactical, he doesn't want to see a kicker's race here. This heat is also peppered with talented under the radar guys like Fowler, Kolor, Luoco, Coakley and Grace. And of course, Kevin Moy is the guy to watch. Moy has been the king of under the radar guys this year. Last spring Moy was straight up on fire and was kicking down quality guys back to back weeks. If I'm the other guys in this heat I'm very afraid of Kevin Moy over the last 400m. It's a shame he in all likelihood will not be in the fast heat, unless Coach Kelly manages to use some jedi mind tricks to get the PTFCA to enlarge the field.
With Groh, Barchet, Coakley, Grace and Moy up front in this heat, I'd be quite surprised if the winner of this heat wasn't down around 4:22ish or faster. I think this race will be a great one. I have Moy winning it with Coakley second and Groh third, but there is plenty of wiggle room in this group.
Deep sleeper wise, Pat Hopkins has been to a bunch of indoor state championships by now and this may be the year it all clicks and he has a big day here. If you are looking for a long shot for the medals as a sleeper pick, he might be your guy.
The fast heat has the big guns and it will be quite exciting to watch unfold. There is a very interesting dynamic out front. Tony Russell, formerly notorious for being outkicked, has won a couple big races this year holding off guys over the final 200m. The only race he lost this year came to a blazing fast 4:08 a week after Russell ran a blazing 4:11. And Russell still managed to come across the line about a second off his own state record.
Russell is a heavy favorite in this race with almost 8 seconds on the rest of the field. If he doesn't win this race I will be stunned honestly. If I were Russell's coach (which I am not because I know much, much less than him), I would have him run relatively relaxed at the front through 800m in roughly 2:09-2:11 then just slowly click the pace down over the final 800m to the point where he is running 30s. Think about, you go through in 2:11 and then drop a 62 on this field, I can't imagine anyone will be able to hang. Then he has a virtual victory lap coming home around 62 again. That puts him at a huge negative split 4:15 that would be a massive SB for anyone else in the field.
He also could likely run out front the whole way at 4:12 pace and get the W, but I think that is riskier. If he waits too far into the race he leaves himself vulnerable to somebody who just feels really good that day like Hoey, Bilotta, Ritz or Caldwell who all have some kicking ability. Belfatto too.
But I think certain guys won't be so intimidated by Russell that they just let him control this race his way. I'm very interested to see how Ross Wilson attacks this race. Ross Wilson doesn't want this to be a kicker's race any more than Tony does as Ross is certainly down in distance. But is Wilson willing to hammer out 62-63 type laps at the beginning to take this thing through fast? Are the two boys going to work together to keep it fast and beat out the kickers? I doubt it, but it's something to watch for as the race unfolds. I'm not saying it will be intentional, it may just happen out there with the two pushing the pace and jockeying for position.
It's a very interesting dynamic for sure. Look at all the guys with strong kicks in this field. Jaxson Hoey, the stud soph is the #2 seed and he has wheels down the stretch of races that he has showed up more than once. Belfatto is a 1:54 800m man this year (although he is not afraid to get out hard in the mile or XC). Ritz has speed (and a very fast PR of 4:11 in the mile), Billy Caldwell and James Smith are both 1:55 guys and Mike Becich is a 1:56 man. Cooper also has pretty strong speed, although perhaps not as impressive of a resume as the others kicking wise with "only" a 1:57.04 PR last spring.
Bilotta is a tweener for me. He has strong range up and down and he certainly has a nice kick because of how he beat out Belfatto and James, but he also has serious strength and may want to try and get out hard and ride the wave of momentum rather than risk himself among the big name kickers.
It is a very exciting mix of strategies that I'm really looking forward to seeing.
Most of, if not all, of the medalists ought to come from this heat. I think the pace will be fast and the last medalists will be around that 4:22 mark that I see the winner of Heat 2 putting up. All in all, as I said, I see Russell taking this one down. I like the strength of Ross Wilson in this race, but with all the kickers chasing him down over the last 400m I wonder if he may just end up a sitting duck. Caldwell was one of my favorite sleepers to watch a year ago, but now I'm a little worried about him in this race. He hasn't really been dropping some of the sick times of late that his competitors have been so he is somewhat losing the momentum battle out there if I had to guess.
And who knows with the D7 guys? They have barely even had a season this year so maybe they are fresh enough to throw down something big. Or maybe they are inexperienced and in big trouble this weekend. I think it's more likely the first then the second, but this will be a tactically diverse race that will challenge everyone in the field.
Plus, how do we know Sam Ritz just won't pop off a 4:11 again? I can't say I saw anything like that coming last time out, so who knows?
So wait, after all that I have to predict 8 guys to end up on the podium? Yikes. This is no easy job, I'll tell you that much. But I'll give it my best shot. I'll even put down times, even though I think they have almost no shot at being right.
1. Tony Russell 4:13.47
2. Sam Ritz 4:16.10
3. Jaxson Hoey 4:16.49
4. Ross Wilson 4:17.70
5. James Smith 4:18.88
6. Brendan Bilotta 4:19.55
7. Kevin Moy 4:21.25
8. Mike Becich 4:22.16
Lots and lots of very talented guys I left off my list, but certainly a lot of guys I left off my list who have a fantastic shot at leaving PSU with a mile medal around their neck. I'm excited to watch it all unfold!
Please post your predicts and tell me what you think below!
But in the words of Bane, now is not the time for the 3k, that comes later. Let's talk about this year's PA states mile.
In the post below this, I laid out what I think the heats will look like for the upcoming state championship in the mile. It looks like it most likely will be a 3 heat final with some big names spread out throughout the heats. Let's talk about each of my projected heats.
In Heat 1 we have a nice crop of sleepers to watch for. The thing that you need if a slow heat is going to produce a fast time is somebody willing to take it out hard, a sacrificial lamb of sorts. That doesn't mean that this runner doesn't necessarily keep up this blistering pace (Ed Schrom in 2010), but there needs to at least be someone crazy enough to get things going and not care about whether or not they are risking a blow up. There aren't enough guys with that much guts/boldness to do that out there.
But Colin Abert in Heat 1 is a guy who might do it. Abert is only seeded around 4:30 going into this meet, which likely isn't a good indication of this guys true talent level. Also we know Abert is not afraid to take out the pace. He did it in XC a variety of times and he did it last year indoors. So this race will certainly have a shot at getting a winner down around 4:24. But who can get to the line first in that kind of mark?
Honestly, I'm not sure I expect anyone to be in the medals out of this first heat, but that doesn't mean there isn't talent here. Abert, when fully healthy, is a dynamite XC guy with solid 4:21ish speed and obviously impressive strength (would have loved to have seen him in the 3k). He will be flanked by fellow XC state medalist Jeff Van Kotten, 800m specialist Joe Sullivan, Watson Hanson from Radnor and Seamus Collins from Henderson to name a few out of this field.
Sullivan and Hanson are my sleepers here. Hanson has struggled a tad as of late, but I really like this guy's ability. I think if he can just stick his nose in there off a fast pace, he could come how with a nice PR in the 4:25-4:27 range. If Sullivan hangs on to the bell, he has the wheels at the end to go win the race. The mile might be a touch out of his sweet spot, but he has had great success racing the other top PCL guys and I'm sure he will not be afraid to get after it.
If I have to guess who is winning this heat, I'd say Hanson takes it over a crew that includes Abert, VanKooten and Sullivan.
Heat 2 is intriguing here as well. I think this heat also has a guy willing to keep the pace hot in Groh. Plus Reiny Barchet is in this heat and probably has something to prove running in his off event. Barchet isn't going to wait around and let things be tactical, he doesn't want to see a kicker's race here. This heat is also peppered with talented under the radar guys like Fowler, Kolor, Luoco, Coakley and Grace. And of course, Kevin Moy is the guy to watch. Moy has been the king of under the radar guys this year. Last spring Moy was straight up on fire and was kicking down quality guys back to back weeks. If I'm the other guys in this heat I'm very afraid of Kevin Moy over the last 400m. It's a shame he in all likelihood will not be in the fast heat, unless Coach Kelly manages to use some jedi mind tricks to get the PTFCA to enlarge the field.
With Groh, Barchet, Coakley, Grace and Moy up front in this heat, I'd be quite surprised if the winner of this heat wasn't down around 4:22ish or faster. I think this race will be a great one. I have Moy winning it with Coakley second and Groh third, but there is plenty of wiggle room in this group.
Deep sleeper wise, Pat Hopkins has been to a bunch of indoor state championships by now and this may be the year it all clicks and he has a big day here. If you are looking for a long shot for the medals as a sleeper pick, he might be your guy.
The fast heat has the big guns and it will be quite exciting to watch unfold. There is a very interesting dynamic out front. Tony Russell, formerly notorious for being outkicked, has won a couple big races this year holding off guys over the final 200m. The only race he lost this year came to a blazing fast 4:08 a week after Russell ran a blazing 4:11. And Russell still managed to come across the line about a second off his own state record.
Russell is a heavy favorite in this race with almost 8 seconds on the rest of the field. If he doesn't win this race I will be stunned honestly. If I were Russell's coach (which I am not because I know much, much less than him), I would have him run relatively relaxed at the front through 800m in roughly 2:09-2:11 then just slowly click the pace down over the final 800m to the point where he is running 30s. Think about, you go through in 2:11 and then drop a 62 on this field, I can't imagine anyone will be able to hang. Then he has a virtual victory lap coming home around 62 again. That puts him at a huge negative split 4:15 that would be a massive SB for anyone else in the field.
He also could likely run out front the whole way at 4:12 pace and get the W, but I think that is riskier. If he waits too far into the race he leaves himself vulnerable to somebody who just feels really good that day like Hoey, Bilotta, Ritz or Caldwell who all have some kicking ability. Belfatto too.
But I think certain guys won't be so intimidated by Russell that they just let him control this race his way. I'm very interested to see how Ross Wilson attacks this race. Ross Wilson doesn't want this to be a kicker's race any more than Tony does as Ross is certainly down in distance. But is Wilson willing to hammer out 62-63 type laps at the beginning to take this thing through fast? Are the two boys going to work together to keep it fast and beat out the kickers? I doubt it, but it's something to watch for as the race unfolds. I'm not saying it will be intentional, it may just happen out there with the two pushing the pace and jockeying for position.
It's a very interesting dynamic for sure. Look at all the guys with strong kicks in this field. Jaxson Hoey, the stud soph is the #2 seed and he has wheels down the stretch of races that he has showed up more than once. Belfatto is a 1:54 800m man this year (although he is not afraid to get out hard in the mile or XC). Ritz has speed (and a very fast PR of 4:11 in the mile), Billy Caldwell and James Smith are both 1:55 guys and Mike Becich is a 1:56 man. Cooper also has pretty strong speed, although perhaps not as impressive of a resume as the others kicking wise with "only" a 1:57.04 PR last spring.
Bilotta is a tweener for me. He has strong range up and down and he certainly has a nice kick because of how he beat out Belfatto and James, but he also has serious strength and may want to try and get out hard and ride the wave of momentum rather than risk himself among the big name kickers.
It is a very exciting mix of strategies that I'm really looking forward to seeing.
Most of, if not all, of the medalists ought to come from this heat. I think the pace will be fast and the last medalists will be around that 4:22 mark that I see the winner of Heat 2 putting up. All in all, as I said, I see Russell taking this one down. I like the strength of Ross Wilson in this race, but with all the kickers chasing him down over the last 400m I wonder if he may just end up a sitting duck. Caldwell was one of my favorite sleepers to watch a year ago, but now I'm a little worried about him in this race. He hasn't really been dropping some of the sick times of late that his competitors have been so he is somewhat losing the momentum battle out there if I had to guess.
And who knows with the D7 guys? They have barely even had a season this year so maybe they are fresh enough to throw down something big. Or maybe they are inexperienced and in big trouble this weekend. I think it's more likely the first then the second, but this will be a tactically diverse race that will challenge everyone in the field.
Plus, how do we know Sam Ritz just won't pop off a 4:11 again? I can't say I saw anything like that coming last time out, so who knows?
So wait, after all that I have to predict 8 guys to end up on the podium? Yikes. This is no easy job, I'll tell you that much. But I'll give it my best shot. I'll even put down times, even though I think they have almost no shot at being right.
1. Tony Russell 4:13.47
2. Sam Ritz 4:16.10
3. Jaxson Hoey 4:16.49
4. Ross Wilson 4:17.70
5. James Smith 4:18.88
6. Brendan Bilotta 4:19.55
7. Kevin Moy 4:21.25
8. Mike Becich 4:22.16
Lots and lots of very talented guys I left off my list, but certainly a lot of guys I left off my list who have a fantastic shot at leaving PSU with a mile medal around their neck. I'm excited to watch it all unfold!
Please post your predicts and tell me what you think below!
PA States: Quick Thoughts
I'm hoping to do some preview type stuff in the not too distant future, but for now I would like to just share my gut reactions after a quick, non-indepth review of the accepted entries.
First off, here is what I project the heat situation will look like for all the relevant distance events (keep in mind that all flat track times are converted to banked times for seeding purposes):
Remember that all of the following are merely guesses, not necessarily the actual heats but this is the actual order of seeds.
800m (19 entries, project 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. Kyle Francis 1:53.25
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:53.36
3. Joe Logue 1:53.67
4. Will Cather 1:54.05
5. Alek Sauer 1:57.17
6. Nick Smart 1:57.42
7. Eli Mercardo 1:57.46
8. Dylin Wilhoite 1:57.82
Heat 1
1. Liam O'Connell 1:59.00
2. Garahm Allen 1:59.00
3. Andy Miller 1:59.04
4. Austin Cooper 1:59.38
5. Connor Holm 1:59.38
6. Dan Ferraiolo 1:59.41
7. Steve Thompson 1:59.56
8. Andy Stewart 1:59.81
9. Tre Williams 1:59.82
10. Ryan Meyers 1:59.90
11. Matt Schulverger 2:00.10
Mile (31 entries, project 3 heats)
Heat 3
1. Tony Russell 4:11.56
2. Jaxson Hoey 4:19.24
3. Brendan Bilotta 4:20.58
4. Ross Wilson 4:20.64
5. Jim Belfatto 4:21.46
6. Billy Caldwell 4:23.96
7. Sam Ritz 4:24.03
8. James Smith 4:24.33
9. Michael Becich 4:24.50
10. Austin Cooper 4:25.00
Heat 2
1. Ryan Grace 4:25.57
2. Jeff Groh 4:26.75
3. Kevin Moy 4:26.84
4. Mitchell Coakley 4:26.85
5. Reiny Barchet 4:27.45
6. Cordon Luoco 4:28.55
7. Mike Kolor 4:28.66
8. Pat Hopkins 4:28.69
9. Dave Fowler 4:28.70
10. Ryan Lerda 4:29.13
Heat 1
1. Colin Willis 4:29.58
2. Joe Sullivan 4:29.83
3. Colin Abert 4:30.91
4. Sean Weidner 4:31.08
5. Seamus Collins 4:31.14
6. Alex Milligan 4:31.14
7. Matt Willig 4:31.14
8. Watson Hanson 4:31.28
9. Matt Kravitz 4:31.57
10. Jeff Van Kooten 4:31.59
11. Will Sponaugle 4:31.65
3000m (17 entries, 1 heat)
1. Colin Martin 8:38.95
2. Dominic Deluca 8:43.83
3. Christian Kardish 8:47.81
4. Chris Cummings 8:50.01
5. Jake Brophy 8:52.15
6. Patrick Reilly 8:52.89
7. Matt McGoey 8:54.58
8. Paul Power 8:55.11
9. Will Loevnver 8:55.95
10. Scott Mason 8:56.93
11. Casey Comber 8:56.14
12. Billy McDevitt 8:56.52
13. Kevin James 8:57.07
14. Jonathan Pearlman 8:57.38
15. Andrew Marston 8:57.58
16. Cole Nissley 8:57.88
17. Griffin Molino 8:58.54
4x800m (24 entries, 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. State College 7:47.75
2. O'Hara 7:50.98
3. Penncrest 7:57.86
4. Altoona 8:06.74
5. Dowingtown East 8:07.33
6. North Penn 8:07.39
7. Pennsbury 8:10.07
8. Abington 8:12.10
9. Upper Darby 8:12.20
10. St. Joe's Prep 8:12.81
11. Avon Grove 8:13.73
12. Strath Haven 8:13.88
Heat 1
1. CB East 8:15.64
2. Pennridge 8:16.61
3. Twin Valley 8:17.13
4. CR South 8:17.47
5. DT West 8:17.54
6. Penn Charter 8:17.77
7. West Allegheny 8:17.93
8. Seneca Valley 8:17.85
9. Upper Dublin 8:18.47
10. CB West 8:18.69
11. Bensalem 8:18.78
12. MBAP 8:19.09
DMR, (12 entries, 1 heat)
1. Henderson 10:15.54
2. Lower Dauphin 10:33.94
3. Holy Ghost 10:34.58
4. LaSalle 10:37.07
5. Radnor 10:39.72
6. GFS 10:40.52
7. Malvern Prep 10:42.49
8. CRN 10:45.49
9. Quakertown 10:46.10
10. Great Valley 10:46.79
11. CB South 10:47.61
12. WC East 10:48.64
Quick points after typing out the above
-That took a really long time, I probably should have just left to everyone's imagination ... oh well, just train being train ...
-O'Hara picks to double guys and risk doing well in the relay (which they choose to be the 4x8). I like what they are doing with their guys, letting them chase some solid hardware after sacrificing a year ago and coming up just short. They have very strong individuals, but more than likely their team is going to get swallowed up by fresher squads at the meet's end.
-State College might be able to set the state record if they can get some push. Cather is the only guy doubling which shows great sacrifices from the other legs who all would have had a chance at being medalists in all likelihood. They just need to find a relay to push them towards 7:45 and I don't think it's going to be O'Hara.
-No Brehm or Lewis in the 800m is a real let down. In fact no Brehm at all is a real let down. I would have loved to see the Carlisle relay at indoors surprise some people, but I guess we will wait until outdoors. As for Lewis, his decision makes complete sense for his team, but as a fan I just wanted to see a good race so this was a little sad.
- The Altoona boys going all in the 4x8! That was surprising to see a fresh Altoona squad pick the 4x8 after their recent awesome DMR run. They are going to have a tough time beating district rivals state college, but their relay definitely is a sleeper pick here. District 6 takes 1-2?
-Kevin James in the 3k, Ross Wilson not. James is going to be a real tempting upset pick in that event, not really sure what I'm going to do with that one. I think the 3k is very intriguing at this point. Kardish jumped in there as well. Things are going to be very exciting.
-Looks like only Russell in the fast heat for the Henderson boys. Also looks like no fear about doubling guys back for the relay. They are going to have a lot of tired legs on that squad, but they are just so much better than a field (filled with a lot of other doubling teams) that they should still take the W. The question is will Barchet or Moy manage to score out of the slow heat? And order will they choose with their doubling stars?
-I'm really glad Francis picked the 800m over the mile. That means I have a shot at one of my "2014 predictions" coming true!
First off, here is what I project the heat situation will look like for all the relevant distance events (keep in mind that all flat track times are converted to banked times for seeding purposes):
Remember that all of the following are merely guesses, not necessarily the actual heats but this is the actual order of seeds.
800m (19 entries, project 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. Kyle Francis 1:53.25
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:53.36
3. Joe Logue 1:53.67
4. Will Cather 1:54.05
5. Alek Sauer 1:57.17
6. Nick Smart 1:57.42
7. Eli Mercardo 1:57.46
8. Dylin Wilhoite 1:57.82
Heat 1
1. Liam O'Connell 1:59.00
2. Garahm Allen 1:59.00
3. Andy Miller 1:59.04
4. Austin Cooper 1:59.38
5. Connor Holm 1:59.38
6. Dan Ferraiolo 1:59.41
7. Steve Thompson 1:59.56
8. Andy Stewart 1:59.81
9. Tre Williams 1:59.82
10. Ryan Meyers 1:59.90
11. Matt Schulverger 2:00.10
Mile (31 entries, project 3 heats)
Heat 3
1. Tony Russell 4:11.56
2. Jaxson Hoey 4:19.24
3. Brendan Bilotta 4:20.58
4. Ross Wilson 4:20.64
5. Jim Belfatto 4:21.46
6. Billy Caldwell 4:23.96
7. Sam Ritz 4:24.03
8. James Smith 4:24.33
9. Michael Becich 4:24.50
10. Austin Cooper 4:25.00
Heat 2
1. Ryan Grace 4:25.57
2. Jeff Groh 4:26.75
3. Kevin Moy 4:26.84
4. Mitchell Coakley 4:26.85
5. Reiny Barchet 4:27.45
6. Cordon Luoco 4:28.55
7. Mike Kolor 4:28.66
8. Pat Hopkins 4:28.69
9. Dave Fowler 4:28.70
10. Ryan Lerda 4:29.13
Heat 1
1. Colin Willis 4:29.58
2. Joe Sullivan 4:29.83
3. Colin Abert 4:30.91
4. Sean Weidner 4:31.08
5. Seamus Collins 4:31.14
6. Alex Milligan 4:31.14
7. Matt Willig 4:31.14
8. Watson Hanson 4:31.28
9. Matt Kravitz 4:31.57
10. Jeff Van Kooten 4:31.59
11. Will Sponaugle 4:31.65
3000m (17 entries, 1 heat)
1. Colin Martin 8:38.95
2. Dominic Deluca 8:43.83
3. Christian Kardish 8:47.81
4. Chris Cummings 8:50.01
5. Jake Brophy 8:52.15
6. Patrick Reilly 8:52.89
7. Matt McGoey 8:54.58
8. Paul Power 8:55.11
9. Will Loevnver 8:55.95
10. Scott Mason 8:56.93
11. Casey Comber 8:56.14
12. Billy McDevitt 8:56.52
13. Kevin James 8:57.07
14. Jonathan Pearlman 8:57.38
15. Andrew Marston 8:57.58
16. Cole Nissley 8:57.88
17. Griffin Molino 8:58.54
4x800m (24 entries, 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. State College 7:47.75
2. O'Hara 7:50.98
3. Penncrest 7:57.86
4. Altoona 8:06.74
5. Dowingtown East 8:07.33
6. North Penn 8:07.39
7. Pennsbury 8:10.07
8. Abington 8:12.10
9. Upper Darby 8:12.20
10. St. Joe's Prep 8:12.81
11. Avon Grove 8:13.73
12. Strath Haven 8:13.88
Heat 1
1. CB East 8:15.64
2. Pennridge 8:16.61
3. Twin Valley 8:17.13
4. CR South 8:17.47
5. DT West 8:17.54
6. Penn Charter 8:17.77
7. West Allegheny 8:17.93
8. Seneca Valley 8:17.85
9. Upper Dublin 8:18.47
10. CB West 8:18.69
11. Bensalem 8:18.78
12. MBAP 8:19.09
DMR, (12 entries, 1 heat)
1. Henderson 10:15.54
2. Lower Dauphin 10:33.94
3. Holy Ghost 10:34.58
4. LaSalle 10:37.07
5. Radnor 10:39.72
6. GFS 10:40.52
7. Malvern Prep 10:42.49
8. CRN 10:45.49
9. Quakertown 10:46.10
10. Great Valley 10:46.79
11. CB South 10:47.61
12. WC East 10:48.64
Quick points after typing out the above
-That took a really long time, I probably should have just left to everyone's imagination ... oh well, just train being train ...
-O'Hara picks to double guys and risk doing well in the relay (which they choose to be the 4x8). I like what they are doing with their guys, letting them chase some solid hardware after sacrificing a year ago and coming up just short. They have very strong individuals, but more than likely their team is going to get swallowed up by fresher squads at the meet's end.
-State College might be able to set the state record if they can get some push. Cather is the only guy doubling which shows great sacrifices from the other legs who all would have had a chance at being medalists in all likelihood. They just need to find a relay to push them towards 7:45 and I don't think it's going to be O'Hara.
-No Brehm or Lewis in the 800m is a real let down. In fact no Brehm at all is a real let down. I would have loved to see the Carlisle relay at indoors surprise some people, but I guess we will wait until outdoors. As for Lewis, his decision makes complete sense for his team, but as a fan I just wanted to see a good race so this was a little sad.
- The Altoona boys going all in the 4x8! That was surprising to see a fresh Altoona squad pick the 4x8 after their recent awesome DMR run. They are going to have a tough time beating district rivals state college, but their relay definitely is a sleeper pick here. District 6 takes 1-2?
-Kevin James in the 3k, Ross Wilson not. James is going to be a real tempting upset pick in that event, not really sure what I'm going to do with that one. I think the 3k is very intriguing at this point. Kardish jumped in there as well. Things are going to be very exciting.
-Looks like only Russell in the fast heat for the Henderson boys. Also looks like no fear about doubling guys back for the relay. They are going to have a lot of tired legs on that squad, but they are just so much better than a field (filled with a lot of other doubling teams) that they should still take the W. The question is will Barchet or Moy manage to score out of the slow heat? And order will they choose with their doubling stars?
-I'm really glad Francis picked the 800m over the mile. That means I have a shot at one of my "2014 predictions" coming true!
USA Champs Controversy
Two 3000m at altitude were run last night to determine the World Indoor Team. The track was crowded to the brim with a field full of guys, way too many bodies flying around on tight turns in tight zones. As a result, we witnessed a couple of races that will lead to possibly the most controversial month of USA indoor track of all time.
19 men and 13 women got out on the track to race for spots on the world team and the Nike Oregon Project would be the center of everyone's attention both before and after everything was said and done.
First, I'll discuss the men's race, less controversial of the two. In a field of 19 runners, there were only a few with the A standard for worlds, and perhaps even fewer with a legit chance of making the team. Early on, teammates Andrew Bumbalough, Lopez Lomong and Ryan Hill assumed the pace out front, with Bumbalough really leading the charge. The pace was very quick early, especially at altitude, and quickly the race thinned out so that Bumbalough was dragging Hill, Lomong, Rupp and Lagat around the track.
Around 2k things began to slow as Bumbalough began to suffer a slow and painful death off the brutal pace he had set in the beginning. He dropped off hard over the final 1k of the race, causing some to speculate he was a sacrificial lamb of a racer acting as a rabbit for the Schumacher guys (Hill and Lomong). Those guys were clearly trying to make Rupp work. Every time Rupp tried to go to the front once Bumbi was out of the picture, Hill and Lomong pushed it from the inside, Hill even cutting Rupp off badly early in the race in a fairly dirty move I would say.
As things headed towards the finish, Rupp finally got to the front and Lomong began to really feel the pace as well. It was down to just Rupp, Lagat and Hill. Rupp's pacing assuming duties began to damage him next as he slipped out of the lead. Lagat went to the front and Hill followed as best he could. On the backstretch they began to lap runners the slew of slow moving athletes confused as to where to run made for a zig-zagging path down the back stretch. It looked as if Hill was going to pull away from Rupp, stunning the London Silver Medalist and multiple American Record holder, but Rupp found one more gear and blew by Hill who struggled mightily over the last 100m despite a very tough run. He finished 3rd and Rupp locked up 2nd and a spot at the world team.
Keep in mind during all of this Bernard Lagat, at 39 years old, sprinted away from a couple guys in their prime to run 7:46.01 and win by over 2 seconds. At altitude. He trains at altitude, but I mean seriously what is that guy on?
So you have a drugged up Lagat and an absurdly large and nearly destructive 3k field already making for quite the ridiculous race, but things were only just getting started.
An outraged Alberto Salazar, Galen Rupp's coach and head of the Nike Oregon Project, was apparently caught yelling at Coach Schumacher after the race was over. He was extremely upset at how the crew had used Bumbalough as a virtual pace maker for the event, causing the pace to be fast enough to really put a beating on his golden boy Galen Rupp to the point where Rupp was forced to scratch from the 1500m the next day.
It wasn't just Rupp who was victimized by that destructive pace. Watch the video of the race. After the runners finish they collapse on the track leaving something out of a war film left to witness for the spectators. Well, at least Bernard Lagat looked fine afterwards ....
So Al Sal's complaining and some review led to a DQ for Bumbi whose work as a pace maker was scene as interference. Not really sure how this can quite be a rule, but apparently it fits and as a result Bumbi was gone. But look, can you blame the other Nike Group in Oregon for trying to clear space for their guys among a 19 guy field? Can you expect them to not try and push it and work hard to make guys like Bernard Lagat try and lose their kicking advantage (even if it completely failed)? Salazar didn't like it one bit and allegedly things almost got pretty physical out in Albuquerque.
Feel free to watch for the video for yourself on Runnerspace and let me know what you think.
But wait there is more! If you thought that plate full of controversy was appetizing, wait until you see what's for dessert.
The women's 3k featured a few more of Al Sal's main gals, Shannon Rowbury and Jordan Hasay. They would be matched up against a slew of Brooks girls and other B list types as Conley and Simpson opted out of the US indoor championships (because honestly are they really that big of a deal?).
Gabe Grunewald (formerly known as Gabe Anderson, always a little confusing when these women get married) was coming off a fantastic outdoor season and came into the race as one of the few women with the A standard for worlds. As the race quickly became a kickers paradise, Grunewald and Rowbury (easily the best 1500m chops in the field) were licking their lips while Jordan Hasay (highly improbable for her to win a kicker's race against these two) was running relaxed and hoping for the Al Sal magic to bring her home in the top 2.
Things finally started to get quick with about 1k-800m to go. There was a rotation through the leaders, everybody but Grunewald taking the helm, and finally it got to be time to kick. Rowbury and Hasay assumed the 1-2 position, looking like they would have the race to themselves when Grunewald found her kick with about 200m to go. Suddenly she just started blasting off at the bell and was catching up to the other runners so quickly it was dangerous.
Very dangerous in fact. She came up on Hasay too fast, the two had their feet tangle slightly, neither went down or were too seriously affected and Grunewald went around. Then Grunewald came up on Rowbury, equally as quickly. She pulled up carefully, it appeared as if she avoided contact with Rowbury on this one and then flew around into the final 200m and straight dominated the race.
Grunewald was the champion going away and, thus, Grunewald and Rowbury would be the world team and Hasay would be the first alternate. But Alberto was having none of that. The Nike conspiracy begins to take place.
According to what I have read on flotrack, the judges reviewed the situation and said there was no foul, just natural incidental conduct. Salazar filed an appeal which was rejected. He filed a further appeal which set up a 3 person jury. They also found nothing wrong. So Grunewald is good to go right?
Wrong. Another appeal led to a sudden change of mind from officials and suddenly Grunewald was out and Hasay was upgraded on to the world team (Note: Hasay ended up falling the 4th in the race but 3rd place finisher Sara Vaughn does not have the A standard.). The Grunewald camp is trying desperately to get this decision overruled, but at the moment the results still show Grunewald as disqualified.
I've now watched the video clip about 5 times over (about the 10:10 mark of this video http://www.usatf.tv/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45365&do=videos&video_id=105467) and I'm not sure I can say this is anything more than incidental. That being said, Grunewald was running recklessly on that last lap and nearly tripped herself and/or Rowbury as well with about 100m to go.
Here is the problem. The USATF has got all sorts of corruption and has made all sorts of stupid decisions in the last year. Now the Nike posse is trying to get their star child Hasay to join Rowbury and represent the USA on the world scene. The conspiracy theorists believe this is Nike's work to get their runners on the team and keep the lesser known women and lesser known brands (Brooks and Grunewald) on the sidelines watching.
I am far from a fan of Al Sal and I really dislike the USATF more and more with each day (really, 2 heats of the 1500m final? No additional 5k entrants in Des Moines? Just two rounds of the 15 last year? Gotta be kidding me ...), but there may be a slight argument for disqualification here. She ran up on the runners and in real time if she had been straight up DQd from the start it's hard to serious argue.
That being said, this smells really fishy. It took a huge slew of appeals to get this movement traction and now all of a sudden a lesser known name is off the team and Nike's own Jordan Hasay is on. IT does not pass the eye test one bit.
I wish the best for Grunewald and I really hope she gets in. She is a fantastic story and a two time cancer survivor. It's hard not to root for her out there. I hate to see the super powers win out and corruption stain our sport.
Regardless of the end result here, the USATF continues to ruin our sport. Controversy after controversy has virtually killed track and field in the US. It's not going to be popular if guys like these are looking for ways to get themselves richer and themselves better off (see the US Marathon trials in LA) rather than looking out for the hard working runners who have earned success. It brings me back to the Prefontaine days where the AAU would basically steal from him and use him as a means to their own personal gain. It's just outrageous.
Our sport will never be as great as it can be unless a change is made.
Let me know what you think about these controversies below and feel free to check out the race videos on Runnerspace.
19 men and 13 women got out on the track to race for spots on the world team and the Nike Oregon Project would be the center of everyone's attention both before and after everything was said and done.
First, I'll discuss the men's race, less controversial of the two. In a field of 19 runners, there were only a few with the A standard for worlds, and perhaps even fewer with a legit chance of making the team. Early on, teammates Andrew Bumbalough, Lopez Lomong and Ryan Hill assumed the pace out front, with Bumbalough really leading the charge. The pace was very quick early, especially at altitude, and quickly the race thinned out so that Bumbalough was dragging Hill, Lomong, Rupp and Lagat around the track.
Around 2k things began to slow as Bumbalough began to suffer a slow and painful death off the brutal pace he had set in the beginning. He dropped off hard over the final 1k of the race, causing some to speculate he was a sacrificial lamb of a racer acting as a rabbit for the Schumacher guys (Hill and Lomong). Those guys were clearly trying to make Rupp work. Every time Rupp tried to go to the front once Bumbi was out of the picture, Hill and Lomong pushed it from the inside, Hill even cutting Rupp off badly early in the race in a fairly dirty move I would say.
As things headed towards the finish, Rupp finally got to the front and Lomong began to really feel the pace as well. It was down to just Rupp, Lagat and Hill. Rupp's pacing assuming duties began to damage him next as he slipped out of the lead. Lagat went to the front and Hill followed as best he could. On the backstretch they began to lap runners the slew of slow moving athletes confused as to where to run made for a zig-zagging path down the back stretch. It looked as if Hill was going to pull away from Rupp, stunning the London Silver Medalist and multiple American Record holder, but Rupp found one more gear and blew by Hill who struggled mightily over the last 100m despite a very tough run. He finished 3rd and Rupp locked up 2nd and a spot at the world team.
Keep in mind during all of this Bernard Lagat, at 39 years old, sprinted away from a couple guys in their prime to run 7:46.01 and win by over 2 seconds. At altitude. He trains at altitude, but I mean seriously what is that guy on?
So you have a drugged up Lagat and an absurdly large and nearly destructive 3k field already making for quite the ridiculous race, but things were only just getting started.
An outraged Alberto Salazar, Galen Rupp's coach and head of the Nike Oregon Project, was apparently caught yelling at Coach Schumacher after the race was over. He was extremely upset at how the crew had used Bumbalough as a virtual pace maker for the event, causing the pace to be fast enough to really put a beating on his golden boy Galen Rupp to the point where Rupp was forced to scratch from the 1500m the next day.
It wasn't just Rupp who was victimized by that destructive pace. Watch the video of the race. After the runners finish they collapse on the track leaving something out of a war film left to witness for the spectators. Well, at least Bernard Lagat looked fine afterwards ....
So Al Sal's complaining and some review led to a DQ for Bumbi whose work as a pace maker was scene as interference. Not really sure how this can quite be a rule, but apparently it fits and as a result Bumbi was gone. But look, can you blame the other Nike Group in Oregon for trying to clear space for their guys among a 19 guy field? Can you expect them to not try and push it and work hard to make guys like Bernard Lagat try and lose their kicking advantage (even if it completely failed)? Salazar didn't like it one bit and allegedly things almost got pretty physical out in Albuquerque.
Feel free to watch for the video for yourself on Runnerspace and let me know what you think.
But wait there is more! If you thought that plate full of controversy was appetizing, wait until you see what's for dessert.
The women's 3k featured a few more of Al Sal's main gals, Shannon Rowbury and Jordan Hasay. They would be matched up against a slew of Brooks girls and other B list types as Conley and Simpson opted out of the US indoor championships (because honestly are they really that big of a deal?).
Gabe Grunewald (formerly known as Gabe Anderson, always a little confusing when these women get married) was coming off a fantastic outdoor season and came into the race as one of the few women with the A standard for worlds. As the race quickly became a kickers paradise, Grunewald and Rowbury (easily the best 1500m chops in the field) were licking their lips while Jordan Hasay (highly improbable for her to win a kicker's race against these two) was running relaxed and hoping for the Al Sal magic to bring her home in the top 2.
Things finally started to get quick with about 1k-800m to go. There was a rotation through the leaders, everybody but Grunewald taking the helm, and finally it got to be time to kick. Rowbury and Hasay assumed the 1-2 position, looking like they would have the race to themselves when Grunewald found her kick with about 200m to go. Suddenly she just started blasting off at the bell and was catching up to the other runners so quickly it was dangerous.
Very dangerous in fact. She came up on Hasay too fast, the two had their feet tangle slightly, neither went down or were too seriously affected and Grunewald went around. Then Grunewald came up on Rowbury, equally as quickly. She pulled up carefully, it appeared as if she avoided contact with Rowbury on this one and then flew around into the final 200m and straight dominated the race.
Grunewald was the champion going away and, thus, Grunewald and Rowbury would be the world team and Hasay would be the first alternate. But Alberto was having none of that. The Nike conspiracy begins to take place.
According to what I have read on flotrack, the judges reviewed the situation and said there was no foul, just natural incidental conduct. Salazar filed an appeal which was rejected. He filed a further appeal which set up a 3 person jury. They also found nothing wrong. So Grunewald is good to go right?
Wrong. Another appeal led to a sudden change of mind from officials and suddenly Grunewald was out and Hasay was upgraded on to the world team (Note: Hasay ended up falling the 4th in the race but 3rd place finisher Sara Vaughn does not have the A standard.). The Grunewald camp is trying desperately to get this decision overruled, but at the moment the results still show Grunewald as disqualified.
I've now watched the video clip about 5 times over (about the 10:10 mark of this video http://www.usatf.tv/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45365&do=videos&video_id=105467) and I'm not sure I can say this is anything more than incidental. That being said, Grunewald was running recklessly on that last lap and nearly tripped herself and/or Rowbury as well with about 100m to go.
Here is the problem. The USATF has got all sorts of corruption and has made all sorts of stupid decisions in the last year. Now the Nike posse is trying to get their star child Hasay to join Rowbury and represent the USA on the world scene. The conspiracy theorists believe this is Nike's work to get their runners on the team and keep the lesser known women and lesser known brands (Brooks and Grunewald) on the sidelines watching.
I am far from a fan of Al Sal and I really dislike the USATF more and more with each day (really, 2 heats of the 1500m final? No additional 5k entrants in Des Moines? Just two rounds of the 15 last year? Gotta be kidding me ...), but there may be a slight argument for disqualification here. She ran up on the runners and in real time if she had been straight up DQd from the start it's hard to serious argue.
That being said, this smells really fishy. It took a huge slew of appeals to get this movement traction and now all of a sudden a lesser known name is off the team and Nike's own Jordan Hasay is on. IT does not pass the eye test one bit.
I wish the best for Grunewald and I really hope she gets in. She is a fantastic story and a two time cancer survivor. It's hard not to root for her out there. I hate to see the super powers win out and corruption stain our sport.
Regardless of the end result here, the USATF continues to ruin our sport. Controversy after controversy has virtually killed track and field in the US. It's not going to be popular if guys like these are looking for ways to get themselves richer and themselves better off (see the US Marathon trials in LA) rather than looking out for the hard working runners who have earned success. It brings me back to the Prefontaine days where the AAU would basically steal from him and use him as a means to their own personal gain. It's just outrageous.
Our sport will never be as great as it can be unless a change is made.
Let me know what you think about these controversies below and feel free to check out the race videos on Runnerspace.
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