PA States: Quick Thoughts

I'm hoping to do some preview type stuff in the not too distant future, but for now I would like to just share my gut reactions after a quick, non-indepth review of the accepted entries.

First off, here is what I project the heat situation will look like for all the relevant distance events (keep in mind that all flat track times are converted to banked times for seeding purposes):

Remember that all of the following are merely guesses, not necessarily the actual heats but this is the actual order of seeds.

800m (19 entries, project 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. Kyle Francis 1:53.25
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:53.36
3. Joe Logue 1:53.67
4. Will Cather 1:54.05
5. Alek Sauer 1:57.17
6. Nick Smart 1:57.42
7. Eli Mercardo 1:57.46
8. Dylin Wilhoite 1:57.82
Heat 1
1. Liam O'Connell 1:59.00
2. Garahm Allen 1:59.00
3. Andy Miller 1:59.04
4. Austin Cooper 1:59.38
5. Connor Holm 1:59.38
6. Dan Ferraiolo 1:59.41
7. Steve Thompson 1:59.56
8. Andy Stewart 1:59.81
9. Tre Williams 1:59.82
10. Ryan Meyers 1:59.90
11. Matt Schulverger 2:00.10

Mile (31 entries, project 3 heats)
Heat 3
1. Tony Russell 4:11.56
2. Jaxson Hoey 4:19.24
3. Brendan Bilotta 4:20.58
4. Ross Wilson 4:20.64
5. Jim Belfatto 4:21.46
6. Billy Caldwell 4:23.96
7. Sam Ritz 4:24.03
8. James Smith 4:24.33
9. Michael Becich 4:24.50
10. Austin Cooper 4:25.00
Heat 2
1. Ryan Grace 4:25.57
2. Jeff Groh 4:26.75
3. Kevin Moy 4:26.84
4. Mitchell Coakley 4:26.85
5. Reiny Barchet 4:27.45
6. Cordon Luoco 4:28.55
7. Mike Kolor 4:28.66
8. Pat Hopkins 4:28.69
9. Dave Fowler 4:28.70
10. Ryan Lerda 4:29.13
Heat 1
1. Colin Willis 4:29.58
2. Joe Sullivan 4:29.83
3. Colin Abert 4:30.91
4. Sean Weidner 4:31.08
5. Seamus Collins 4:31.14
6. Alex Milligan 4:31.14
7. Matt Willig 4:31.14
8. Watson Hanson 4:31.28
9. Matt Kravitz 4:31.57
10. Jeff Van Kooten 4:31.59
11. Will Sponaugle 4:31.65

3000m (17 entries, 1 heat)
1. Colin Martin 8:38.95
2. Dominic Deluca 8:43.83
3. Christian Kardish 8:47.81
4. Chris Cummings 8:50.01
5. Jake Brophy 8:52.15
6. Patrick Reilly 8:52.89
7. Matt McGoey 8:54.58
8. Paul Power 8:55.11
9. Will Loevnver 8:55.95
10. Scott Mason 8:56.93
11. Casey Comber 8:56.14
12. Billy McDevitt 8:56.52
13. Kevin James 8:57.07
14. Jonathan Pearlman 8:57.38
15. Andrew Marston 8:57.58
16. Cole Nissley 8:57.88
17. Griffin Molino 8:58.54

4x800m (24 entries, 2 heats)
Heat 2
1. State College 7:47.75
2. O'Hara 7:50.98
3. Penncrest 7:57.86
4. Altoona 8:06.74
5. Dowingtown East 8:07.33
6. North Penn 8:07.39
7. Pennsbury 8:10.07
8. Abington 8:12.10
9. Upper Darby 8:12.20
10. St. Joe's Prep 8:12.81
11. Avon Grove 8:13.73
12. Strath Haven 8:13.88

Heat 1
1. CB East 8:15.64
2. Pennridge 8:16.61
3. Twin Valley 8:17.13
4. CR South 8:17.47
5. DT West 8:17.54
6. Penn Charter 8:17.77
7. West Allegheny 8:17.93
8. Seneca Valley 8:17.85
9. Upper Dublin 8:18.47
10. CB West 8:18.69
11. Bensalem 8:18.78
12. MBAP 8:19.09

DMR, (12 entries, 1 heat)
1. Henderson 10:15.54
2. Lower Dauphin 10:33.94
3. Holy Ghost 10:34.58
4. LaSalle 10:37.07
5. Radnor 10:39.72
6. GFS 10:40.52
7. Malvern Prep 10:42.49
8. CRN 10:45.49
9. Quakertown 10:46.10
10. Great Valley 10:46.79
11. CB South 10:47.61
12. WC East 10:48.64


Quick points after typing out the above
-That took a really long time, I probably should have just left to everyone's imagination ... oh well, just train being train ...
-O'Hara picks to double guys and risk doing well in the relay (which they choose to be the 4x8). I like what they are doing with their guys, letting them chase some solid hardware after sacrificing a year ago and coming up just short. They have very strong individuals, but more than likely their team is going to get swallowed up by fresher squads at the meet's end.
-State College might be able to set the state record if they can get some push. Cather is the only guy doubling which shows great sacrifices from the other legs who all would have had a chance at being medalists in all likelihood. They just need to find a relay to push them towards 7:45 and I don't think it's going to be O'Hara.
-No Brehm or Lewis in the 800m is a real let down. In fact no Brehm at all is a real let down. I would have loved to see the Carlisle relay at indoors surprise some people, but I guess we will wait until outdoors. As for Lewis, his decision makes complete sense for his team, but as a fan I just wanted to see a good race so this was a little sad.
- The Altoona boys going all in the 4x8! That was surprising to see a fresh Altoona squad pick the 4x8 after their recent awesome DMR run. They are going to have a tough time beating district rivals state college, but their relay definitely is a sleeper pick here. District 6 takes 1-2?
-Kevin James in the 3k, Ross Wilson not. James is going to be a real tempting upset pick in that event, not really sure what I'm going to do with that one. I think the 3k is very intriguing at this point. Kardish jumped in there as well. Things are going to be very exciting.
-Looks like only Russell in the fast heat for the Henderson boys. Also looks like no fear about doubling guys back for the relay. They are going to have a lot of tired legs on that squad, but they are just so much better than a field (filled with a lot of other doubling teams) that they should still take the W. The question is will Barchet or Moy manage to score out of the slow heat? And order will they choose with their doubling stars?
-I'm really glad Francis picked the 800m over the mile. That means I have a shot at one of my "2014 predictions" coming true!

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