PA HS States: Mile Preview

First off, you are following the Gabe Grunewald controversy at USAs this past weekend, things are heating up. The most recent insider story can be found on letsrun.com, I retweeted Nick Symmonds's tweet that had the link attached to it as well if you would like a direct link.

But in the words of Bane, now is not the time for the 3k, that comes later. Let's talk about this year's PA states mile.

In the post below this, I laid out what I think the heats will look like for the upcoming state championship in the mile. It looks like it most likely will be a 3 heat final with some big names spread out throughout the heats. Let's talk about each of my projected heats.

In Heat 1 we have a nice crop of sleepers  to watch for. The thing that you need if a slow heat is going to produce a fast time is somebody willing to take it out hard, a sacrificial lamb of sorts. That doesn't mean that this runner doesn't necessarily keep up this blistering pace (Ed Schrom in 2010), but there needs to at least be someone crazy enough to get things going and not care about whether or not they are risking a blow up. There aren't enough guys with that much guts/boldness to do that out there.

But Colin Abert in Heat 1 is a guy who might do it. Abert is only seeded around 4:30 going into this meet, which likely isn't a good indication of this guys true talent level. Also we know Abert is not afraid to take out the pace. He did it in XC a variety of times and he did it last year indoors. So this race will certainly have a shot at getting a winner down around 4:24. But who can get to the line first in that kind of mark?

Honestly, I'm not sure I expect anyone to be in the medals out of this first heat, but that doesn't mean there isn't talent here. Abert, when fully healthy, is a dynamite XC guy with solid 4:21ish speed and obviously impressive strength (would have loved to have seen him in the 3k). He will be flanked by fellow XC state medalist Jeff Van Kotten, 800m specialist Joe Sullivan, Watson Hanson from Radnor and Seamus Collins from Henderson to name a few out of this field.

Sullivan and Hanson are my sleepers here. Hanson has struggled a tad as of late, but I really like this guy's ability. I think if he can just stick his nose in there off a fast pace, he could come how with a nice PR in the 4:25-4:27 range. If Sullivan hangs on to the bell, he has the wheels at the end to go win the race. The mile might be a touch out of his sweet spot, but he has had great success racing the other top PCL guys and I'm sure he will not be afraid to get after it.

If I have to guess who is winning this heat, I'd say Hanson takes it over a crew that includes Abert, VanKooten and Sullivan.

Heat 2 is intriguing here as well. I think this heat also has a guy willing to keep the pace hot in Groh. Plus Reiny Barchet is in this heat and probably has something to prove running in his off event. Barchet isn't going to wait around and let things be tactical, he doesn't want to see a kicker's race here. This heat is also peppered with talented under the radar guys like Fowler, Kolor, Luoco, Coakley and Grace. And of course, Kevin Moy is the guy to watch. Moy has been the king of under the radar guys this year. Last spring Moy was straight up on fire and was kicking down quality guys back to back weeks. If I'm the other guys in this heat I'm very afraid of Kevin Moy over the last 400m. It's a shame he in all likelihood will not be in the fast heat, unless Coach Kelly manages to use some jedi mind tricks to get the PTFCA to enlarge the field.

With Groh, Barchet, Coakley, Grace and Moy up front in this heat, I'd be quite surprised if the winner of this heat wasn't down around 4:22ish or faster. I think this race will be a great one. I have Moy winning it with Coakley second and Groh third, but there is plenty of wiggle room in this group.

Deep sleeper wise, Pat Hopkins has been to a bunch of indoor state championships by now and this may be the year it all clicks and he has a big day here. If you are looking for a long shot for the medals as a sleeper pick, he might be your guy.

The fast heat has the big guns and it will be quite exciting to watch unfold. There is a very interesting dynamic out front. Tony Russell, formerly notorious for being outkicked, has won a couple big races this year holding off guys over the final 200m. The only race he lost this year came to a blazing fast 4:08 a week after Russell ran a blazing 4:11. And Russell still managed to come across the line about a second off his own state record.

Russell is a heavy favorite in this race with almost 8 seconds on the rest of the field. If he doesn't win this race I will be stunned honestly. If I were Russell's coach (which I am not because I know much, much less than him), I would have him run relatively relaxed at the front through 800m in roughly 2:09-2:11 then just slowly click the pace down over the final 800m to the point where he is running 30s. Think about, you go through in 2:11 and then drop a 62 on this field, I can't imagine anyone will be able to hang. Then he has a virtual victory lap coming home around 62 again. That puts him at a huge negative split 4:15 that would be a massive SB for anyone else in the field.

He also could likely run out front the whole way at 4:12 pace and get the W, but I think that is riskier. If he waits too far into the race he leaves himself vulnerable to somebody who just feels really good that day like Hoey, Bilotta, Ritz or Caldwell who all have some kicking ability. Belfatto too.

But I think certain guys won't be so intimidated by Russell that they just let him control this race his way. I'm very interested to see how Ross Wilson attacks this race. Ross Wilson doesn't want this to be a kicker's race any more than Tony does as Ross is certainly down in distance. But is Wilson willing to hammer out 62-63 type laps at the beginning to take this thing through fast? Are the two boys going to work together to keep it fast and beat out the kickers? I doubt it, but it's something to watch for as the race unfolds. I'm not saying it will be intentional, it may just happen out there with the two pushing the pace and jockeying for position.

It's a very interesting dynamic for sure. Look at all the guys with strong kicks in this field. Jaxson Hoey, the stud soph is the #2 seed and he has wheels down the stretch of races that he has showed up more than once. Belfatto is a 1:54 800m man this year (although he is not afraid to get out hard in the mile or XC). Ritz has speed (and a very fast PR of 4:11 in the mile), Billy Caldwell and James Smith are both 1:55 guys and Mike Becich is a 1:56 man. Cooper also has pretty strong speed, although perhaps not as impressive of a resume as the others kicking wise with "only" a 1:57.04 PR last spring.

Bilotta is a tweener for me. He has strong range up and down and he certainly has a nice kick because of how he beat out Belfatto and James, but he also has serious strength and may want to try and get out hard and ride the wave of momentum rather than risk himself among the big name kickers.

It is a very exciting mix of strategies that I'm really looking forward to seeing.

Most of, if not all, of the medalists ought to come from this heat. I think the pace will be fast and the last medalists will be around that 4:22 mark that I see the winner of Heat 2 putting up. All in all, as I said, I see Russell taking this one down. I like the strength of Ross Wilson in this race, but with all the kickers chasing him down over the last 400m I wonder if he may just end up a sitting duck. Caldwell was one of my favorite sleepers to watch a year ago, but now I'm a little worried about him in this race. He hasn't really been dropping some of the sick times of late that his competitors have been so he is somewhat losing the momentum battle out there if I had to guess.

And who knows with the D7 guys? They have barely even had a season this year so maybe they are fresh enough to throw down something big. Or maybe they are inexperienced and in big trouble this weekend. I think it's more likely the first then the second, but this will be a tactically diverse race that will challenge everyone in the field.

Plus, how do we know Sam Ritz just won't pop off a 4:11 again? I can't say I saw anything like that coming last time out, so who knows?

So wait, after all that I have to predict 8 guys to end up on the podium? Yikes. This is no easy job, I'll tell you that much. But I'll give it my best shot. I'll even put down times, even though I think they have almost no shot at being right.

1. Tony Russell 4:13.47
2. Sam Ritz 4:16.10
3. Jaxson Hoey 4:16.49
4. Ross Wilson 4:17.70
5. James Smith 4:18.88
6. Brendan Bilotta 4:19.55
7. Kevin Moy 4:21.25
8. Mike Becich 4:22.16

Lots and lots of very talented guys I left off my list, but certainly a lot of guys I left off my list who have a fantastic shot at leaving PSU with a mile medal around their neck. I'm excited to watch it all unfold!

Please post your predicts and tell me what you think below!