PA HS States: 3000m Preview

The Mile, 800m and Projected Heat Sheets are all listed out below this post and are definitely worth a read if you are interested in the state meet.

Now that business has been attended to, let's move on.

I'm gonna start this post by letting you on some of my golden rules in predictions. I think they apply fairly nicely to this event this year.

First off, I almost never pick guys who are, for the first time in their life, racing with the confidence that they can win the state title. If you think back on most state champions, it's not their first rodeo. They have had the heartbreak before and they are hungry. Or they have the experience and they are ready. There are definitely exceptions and it's far from a fool proof strategy, but often times guys have to be ready to win. I think Huemmler, Norris and Martin (outdoors) are great examples of this. In the true distance events, experience and age are huge factors at the state championship. I almost always pick seniors, and I never pick sophomores, especially as you move up in distance.

Second, I do not like guys who run the longer races too many weeks in a row. Just ask Ross Wilson last year. He proved me wrong by placing as high as he did, but if you follow my predictions, I was never on the bandwagon for him to win states because of how many 3200m he had run in a row. I think that there is definitely a tiring effect over the weeks and a lot of people fall victim. Again, plenty of exceptions, but it's just one of my rules.

Lastly, I'm not going to pick a guy to win who hasn't won a big race or two before. You have to show evidence that you can rise to the occasion and win at big meets like Meet of Champs, the Carnival, Kevin Dare and the like. If you can't show me you can win those meets, it's hard to pick you to win THE meet.

So now that you know my secrets, allow me to move forward with my predictions for the state 3k race. This race is going to be really fun to watch. I'm a big fan of the field that has been assembled because there are so many guys who I feel lack the proper respect they deserve. Colin Martin has been an absolute stud this year. He has been a tear and has certainly been able to win big races. No one has been able to touch him this season on the track. That being said, he has run a lot of hard 3ks in a row now ... I'm worried about how that will translate to this upcoming state meet.

Dominic Deluca has been strong this year despite only having two real noteworthy meets where he won the 3k handily in an impressive solo effort over Nissley and he won the mile easily over some quality guys at the Carnival. Is Deluca ready to assume the spotlight? This guy has shown he has the potential to do something big at this meet without a doubt.

Those are the big names, then you have a slew of other guys who believe they can win the title. This is where the interesting pieces of racing will unfold. I want to give everyone credit who can be in the medals, but I don't have the time or space to go through everybody individually. Just know, if you are in this field, I think you can place top 5 at this meet.

Here's how I see things playing out. Perhaps not a blazing pace early, but some combination of Martin, Cummings, Reilly and Kardish out front to keep things quick. The second half of the race is where things will really get moving and the pace will break things down to a pack of 5: Martin, Deluca, Brophy, Reilly and James.

There could easily be more in that pack, I like McGoey a lot as a sleeper and I'm glad he is in this field. I also think Nissley, Molino, Marston and certainly Kardish can hang around in that pack. Cummings is a very interesting case here as well who could hang with that pack. He has a nice resume but has not been a factor in the state 3k conversation since December. Don't forget about him in this race, he could be very dangerous.

Comber and Power are two guys who a lot of people overlooked for the medals in XC. We have to be careful if we overlook them too much here. I see both of them as potential 8:48-8:52 guys, especially Power who I think might be the best sleeper of this bunch.

The final couple medal spots will be a mix of guys who are able to hold on after going for it at the beginning, and guys who ran strategic and picked people off over the second half of the race. My boy Francis Ferruzzi hung back in the beginning and picked off half the field to place 5th a few years back because he hung back and laid off the hot pace. He missed out on any shot of the title, but he was able to snag a medal, and a pretty high one at that, because he ran strategically within himself. The guys who grab medals will either be ones who surprise themselves with how well they hold on or guys who understand their abilities as a runner very well.

But in the front I see those 5 guys I mentioned, and I believe one of those 5 will win this race. As things continue to get going over the last few laps I expect things to be still relatively in control. I see James and Martin starting the push to try and break their competitors over the last 800m or so. As we come through the final 400m, Deluca will take over the lead and see who can come with him.

Over the last 200m, I think a big kick will be laid down to allow for an upset victory.

I'm picking Jake Brophy to win this 3k. I'm basically violating every rule in my book by doing this, but I have had a hunch all season that this was going to be Brophy's year. I'm certainly worried he is a little inexperienced at this kind of level to go out and win a state title as just a sophomore in a grueling event like the 3k, but I think his kick is going to carry him home in a big surprise.

Besides, I already picked arguably the biggest favorite in each of my previous two predictions (and I'm likely going to pick the favorites in the 4x8 and the DMR as well) so this will be my bold upset pick of the day.

When the dust settles here is how I have it all going down
1. Jake Brophy 8:36.71
2. Dominic Deluca 8:37.29
3. Kevin James 8:38.00
4. Patrick Reilly 8:38.95
5. Colin Martin 8:39.21
6. Paul Power 8:47.18
7. Andrew Martson 8:48.31
8. Cole Nissley 8:51.90

(I would like to say that if Brophy doesn't win, I think Martin will probably take it. How does that make sense? It doesn't it's just what goes on in my head ...)

This was a really hard one to pick for me as well, I like a lot of these guys as runners and root for a lot of them since I have watched many of them grow into their own over the past few years. I'm very excited to watch everything paly out and I think the battle for the top spots and the last medals is going to be extraordinary stuff.