The previous post discusses the mile, so if you would like to read what I have to say about that it is below. You can also find my projected heat sheets a couple posts down as well that you may need as a point of reference during this post. I am predicting two heats, one of 8 and one of 11. This is a bit of a bold prediction in itself, but there is a clear drop off in seeding between Wilhoite (1:57.82) and Allen/O'Connell (1:59.00 for both) and I doubt we would see an O'Connell-Allen split considering they are at the exact same seed. Thus I went with my projection of 8 and 11.
With that out of the way, let's begin.
Heat 1 is an interesting assortment of runners led by O'Connell and Allen as mentioned above, but also featuring some sleepers like Meyers, Thompson, Ferraiolo and Holm just to name a few. Cooper is in this heat, but is doubling off the mile. For those of you who have not read much of my stuff before, you probably don't know how strongly I am concerned with doubling individuals. When I am predicting, I have a very hard time picking against fresh legs and thus picking against guys on the double or triple all else equal. Especially in the distance events. So Cooper may surprise here (like he did at Districts on the double last spring with a nice run), but ultimately I see him out of the medals at this event.
Holm is my guy out of this heat if I have to pick a name. I like Thompson and Ferraiolo's ability, but I'm not sure I can see them winning this heat in the same way I can see Holm doing it. I wouldn't sleep on O'Connell in this spot as I think he can definitely make strong improvements since that 1:59 race, but I am worried about him feeling compelled to lead this race out fast to try and land his medal position. Upper Dublin's Andy Stewart is in the race. I feel I ought to give him a mention seeing as he is from my Alma Mater. It will be his first time at the state meet so good luck to him!
Holm is the guy I see winning this heat, probably down around 1:57 with a bunch of guys in the 1:58 range giving chase. Holm may be able to snag a medal, but that top heat of guys is pretty darn deep and that heat will get dragged out to a nice and fast pace which makes it difficult for Holm to sneak into the medals.
The fast heat is going to be something special. I'm really excited to see this guys square off even if the field doesn't include two studs in Lewis and Brehm as we had previously hoped. Francis, Wiseman, Logue and Cather are the big dogs here. Smart has been having a stellar last couple months that included a great finish at XC states and some quality 800m last spring, which indicates to me he is in for a big season best this weekend. That being said, even if he is down in the low 1:55s (a big Season Best kinda mark) he is still going to be 2ish seconds off the leaders. I like Sauer as well and I appreciate the fight he gave against Brehm, but Sauer just might be a year away from hanging with these speedsters. This is Sauer's first real appearence at the top level of the state as an individual rather than a key piece on a relay. He will grow up a lot from this race.
Wilhoite has been a stud 800m runner for a few years in a row now and Penn Hills knows how to produce high quality guys both indoors and out. I see him as a heavy favorite to be on the medal stand but, much like Smart, I can't quite place him in my top 4 guys. Mercado has had a very nice season and is coming off a great day at Lehigh, but again I just don't know if he is ready to run 1:53 low at this point.
So how does this race between the top 4 play out? I go back and forth on who I think will take home Gold. Cather is running phenomenally right now and has helped but this State College relay in all time kind of territory. He goes out hard typically and will fight the whole way to get to the line first. He also has a touch of home track advantage, being from State College. Kyle Francis also is not afraid of getting out hard and looking to hold on. He was the cold blooded killer on the anchor leg for Bensalem last outdoors against Kunzweiler and he has Brad Rivera's advice on how to win from the front in a stacked field to go back to. Jeff Wiseman is a fantastic racer and comes into this state meet with a time much faster than what he had ran going into last year's race. He dropped about 5 seconds off his SB last year at states if he does that again he would absolutely crush the state record (not saying I think that will happen, because it won't but just keep that stat in mind). Wiseman has a nice finish and works very hard to hold off his kickers on the final straight. He finds his way to get his torso across first a lot of times in big races. And finally we have Joe Logue who will likely be able to sit back on all these guys and throw down the gauntlet on the backstretch and try and take down a state gold. He has the best open PR in the field and has a slew of performances at 1:53 or faster on his resume.
This is a brutal one to pick. But in the end, I need to try and back up my 2014 Bold Predictions post I guess and stick with my guy from Day 1, Kyle Francis (http://www.therealtrain.blogspot.com/2013/12/bold-predictions-for-2014_23.html). I predicted he would drop a 1:51.59 to win state gold and I guess if nothing else I ought to stay true to myself. I'm going to pick Wiseman to get up for second, Louge for 3rd and Cather for 4th. I see this being a blanket finish at the end and as we watch we won't be able to tell who placed where until everything flashes up on the big board.
In the end my prediction for the medals is the following:
1. Kyle Francis 1:51.59
2. Jeff Wiseman 1:52.17
3. Joe Logue 1:52.33
4. Will Cather 1:52.49
5. Dylin Wilhoite 1:55.88
6. Nick Smart 1:55.95
7. Alek Sauer 1:56.69
8. Connor Holm 1:57.19
Tell me what you think!
Good post. Wiseman has too much speed for the rest of the field. I see the race going out in 53-54 with Wiseman in 3rd at the 400 behind Cather and Francis. Francis, who has raced a ton this winter-12-14 times fades a little and Wiseman fights off Cather down the homestretch. Logue collars Francis late for 4th with the top 4 under 1:53 to make it the best 800m in indoor PA history.
ReplyDeleteHolm and Thompson medal out of heat 1 as the fast early paces causes that 2nd group to suffer a bit. It takes 1:56.90 to medal.
I agree! Francis is super talented, but I just see Wiseman coming on too strong at the end. He only lost to him by .1 seconds the last race, and i'm sure he'll learn from that this time. No one matches his 400m speed! I also think Logue puts himself too far out of contention at 200 to go, so he won't be challenging the top spot.
Delete