Peer Pressure Post: Top Ten Teams

So with Penntrack and Forrest both putting out their own top 10 team rankings recently, I guess it's time to throw up my own. But since we have already seen this kind of post before I'll try to put a little spin on it.

Today I will be comparing my top 10 teams to past teams in recent state history, just to kind of throw out some sense of the potential for these teams looking ahead. The comparisons are far from perfect and just for fun so don't take them too seriously. And if you are looking for a quick way to check out my comparisons, runhigh has all the state results going back to around 2002 for easy access and that's what is usually use. Runhigh results are my favorite set up, I think they are basically perfect in their set up so when I host a meet of champs in 2 years I will be using runhigh.

I apologize in advance if some readers are not familiar with my small references here. I encourage you to look back and compare your teams to the ones I compare them to for yourself and give me some feedback. I'm happy to answer questions and such. I think it might be helpful to inject some history into this (they say history repeats itself after all). However, if this post is really annoying to read because of the references, just comment and say etrain this method sucks and I'll change up my approach.

Also small shout to Forrest for getting banned this week. As someone who has been banned since 2011, I can say it's not too bad. I understand why they had to ban you, competition advertising on their site? They can't really let that happen. However, stealing ideas and denying a paying customer access? Especially when Forrest has offered to write for penntrack for free anyway. But hey I guess it's a compliment that they see you as a threat. So congrats, hopefully this situation gets resolved.

So here is my top 10 in reverse order.

10. Carlisle
Comparable past equivalents: 2013 Conestoga, Ceiling: 2012 LaSalle

Carlisle makes the list here with a chance to really prove themselves this weekend at their home meet. You could argue for them higher (as they are on other rankings I've seen) but you could also argue they shouldn't even be on the list (No Pennsbury, CRN or Henderson on my list today). Carlisle is one of the many teams that fits the "strong top three now let's see what that 4-5 punch becomes". That's not a bad recipe for success (the dream situation is you end up state champs like North Penn in 2011), by there are so many teams that fit this build and I'm not sure Carlisle's quite at their caliber.

Their team as constructed reminds me a lot of last year's Conestoga team, ironically the team that they edged on tie break. I see Brehm as a top 10 guy again (Marston), DeAngelo as a borderline medalist (Sjoreen) and Wisner as a potential sneaking into the top 50 guy (Cooper). But there is also potential for this team to hit on all cylinders at states and DeAngelo can end up in the medals. Then they could easily end up in a similar boat to 2012 LaSalle. I'm real high on Brehm this year (I haven't ruled out the chance that he leaves Hershey with the Gold) and DeAngelo is rapidly climbing my big board and should be able to jump into the top 50 with a good race at their home meet. Wisner and the 4-5 punch will need to take the next step to guarantee these guys a top 10 mark in the future.

The good news is, historically the Carlisle boys run well on their home course (a captain obvious type sentence) and so this weekend has the potential to be a big statement race.

9. CB West
Past equivalent: 2012 Great Valley, Ceiling 2012 NA

So CB West is looking like a real nice squad in the early going. Keep in mind CB East was 5th at prestates, and West has handled them 2/3 times this season. Plus they tied LaSalle at Belmont in an impressive race. They have developed a nice little pack behind front runner Rock Fortna which kind of reminds me of the nice pack of 2012 Great Valley who climbed all the way to 6th at states despite not having a state medalist (Matt Willig just missed that season).

They have a nice young core, with Fortna, Brian Mass, Declan McDonald and Ian Davies all listed as underclassmen at Belmont (I say listed because those can be wrong at times and I want to cover my butt and Davies has also been listed as a senior). They round out their varsity with guys like Brian Iatarola and Andrew Baker (also listed as underclassmen).

There is potential that this pack clicks behind a front runner (Fortna v Zemet) and the young guys behind him put on a solid pack performance at states and this team could end up like 2012 NA. But really when the meets end, it's hard to think we won't be salivating over this team's future potential. Watch out DT West.

But the downside to CB West as been touched on is that they are dealing with the brutal District One. If they have an off day on the big stage at Lehigh they end up comparing to NA in just one way. Their state score will be listed as N/A.

8. Easton
Past Equivalents: 2010 Altoona, 2008 Perk Valley, Dream Equivalent: 2010 NA

Yes I just compared this year's Easton squad to the 2010 state champs. While I don't think Easton will be in the title hunt this year (heck they are in a dog fight just to get out of D11 in one piece) I do think this is district 11's best shot at a top 5 team at the state meet. They have the ultimate front runner in Colin Abert who is probably giving you 1 point in team scoring. Then you have Keven Lapsansky, 5th at PTXC and in the middle of a breakout season.

Then after those 2, they matched up very nicely with teams like CV and LD through 5 guys at PTXC and were 2nd to Severena Park. Throw them in that Hershey meet, they probably aren't far away from Lebo or NA and those are really good teams.

So the dream position is Lapsansky breaks out and grabs state hardware (Like Replogle's 25 in 2010 for Altoona) and Abert gets that out front low stick. Then the rest of the pack, completely untested on the state course, has to pull through for solid performances to round out the top 5. Perk Valley rode that recipe to 4th in 2008.

But Easton is going to have a tough time replicating any of the above teams. For starters, their district is actually looking quite formidable and their squad's excellent front running is build more for a state meet then a district 11 meet where Abert's win won't be nearly as valuable. Plus Easton is quite untested at the state course, with a decent chunk of youth. They might be more like 2009 North Penn when all is said and done.

But for now, I think most people are overlooking the potential of this squad, so they get slotted here at 8.

7. LaSalle
Past Equivalents: 2009 LaSalle

The 2009 LaSalle squad had an absurd 15 second spread and got 3rd at states. They were a really well coached team that could have potential had 7 guys within 25 seconds of each other at states if things broke right.

This LaSalle team has that kind of pack. Look no farther than the PCL meet where they took the top 7 spots at Belmont with times ranging from 16:58 (Sean Princivelle) to 17:29 (Brendan Price). That's a 31 second 1-7 spread with everybody under 17:30 at Belmont. In a glorified workout where they took the top 7 spots! They have so many different guys who can step up and contribute including Patrick Grant and Ryan Mitchell who were their #1s at earlier meets.

Plus now that the PCL has 2 teams they go from sad story to virtual lock for the state meet (no offense meant to a solid St. Joe's squad). So unlike the other squads around them, they should feel confident.

Here's the downside to this squad: somebody needs to drag that pack up towards the front. Yes Ryan Mitchell was a strong 11th at Belmont, but that means O'Hara and Malvern put 3 guys ahead of him. Plus CB West actually outpaced them at the meet with a better front runner. That can't happen if this team is going to be a top 5 team at states.

They get ranked here because I think they are bette than that Belmont race and they were missing a key finisher in their top 7 that day. Carlisle this weekend will give them a chance to prove themselves against some of the other top 12-15 teams in the state.

6. DT West
Comparative teams: 2011 Hederson, 2010 North Penn

The DT West boys are tricky to place right now. I am actually a big fan of this team and they barely got edged by Lebo in my rankings this weekend after the Foundation performance. West is young, we all know that, but young teams can still be great. 2011 Henderson and 2010 North Penn both were top 2 teams in district one and 2011 Henderson was 5th at states.

Plus it's probably worth noting that both of the squads I compared this team to won states the next year.

But for right now DT West just needs to show consistentcy. They have developed a nice front runner in Henry Sappey and have strong pieces behind him with Bullock and the Bartons among others. Their top 5 is at least comparable to Conestoga's, even if I don't think they are quite a good. And I think Conestoga has the best top 5 in the state.

The potential or DT West is outrageous at this point, I really can't project where they will finish this year with confidence. But I do know that young teams struggle at the state meet. 2012 Henderson was young, but they had 2011 to help them grow up quick. I see DT West as a top 2 team at districts, but not finishing that way at states.

I don't know if they are at Carlisle or Kiwanis this weekend, but it will be nice to see them compete over 5k again like Abington.

5. Mt Lebo
Historic Comparison: Baldwin 2009-2010

Lebo reminds me a lot of those Baldwin teams. They have a nice pack but a clear front runner with potential (Ian Baun as compared to Bobby Bishop). Baldwin usually did their best running at Coopers and struggled a bit a states. Lebo is quite the opposite, they have had a slew of quality races at Hershey.

This is a very good program that flies a bit under the radar in NA's shadow. They've got 5 guys too, that's something few teams can boast. Their 5 at prestates, Matt Stone I think has already won an invitational this year. That's crazy.

Harris has been consistently solid and Gunz rounds out the strong top 3. Their 4-5 can step into a top 3 role if necessary and that's a huge lift on the difficult state course. They are a perfect foil for NA's front running machine.

They need to keep their pack up near the medals/top 50 and out of the craziness that is places 60-120 at states and they will be in good shape to compete for a top 3 spot at states if they continue to develop like they have so far early this season.

I still see NA as the better team, but Lebo is making noise behind them, and the Tigers better pay attention.

4. North Allegheny
Comparative Teams: 2013 O'Hara, 2006 Henderson

This top 3 has the potential to be special. McGoey and Wharrey are real good and Seel is having a great season despite the fact that the name Seamus Love is getting dropped so much I thought it was February 14th. Their 4-5 at the moment are a little shaky, but like the teams I compared them too, North Allegheny is a top tier program who can develop guys into workable 4-5s.

Worth noting, check out the JV results at Foundation. Lots of NA jerseys at the front (black and yellow, black and yellow). I'm not counting them out of getting a state title and validating the top 3 theory.

That being said, you need to have that top 3 be the clear cut best top 3. That means they need to beat out Ohara out front at season's end.

3. O'Hara
Comparable Teams: 2007-2008 North Penn
O'Hara reminds me a decent chunk of these North Penn teams. They have a really nice top 3 with a stud developing into a surprising possibly top 15 guy at states in Ryan James behind Kev. Then Rob Morro has become one of the better #3 guys in the state giving them that potent top 3 that can do so much damage.

They are showing nice improvement week to week and clearly have just one goal: to win states. They have been abandoning the PCL league meets and training with an eye towards gold in Hershey. They have a killer low stick and a ton of motivation from past years hardships.

Plus they have the now well documented rises of Drew Pastore and Pat James who could fill the important Tim Stauring role for these guys as a top 50 4th man. But Nolen and Donovan are solid too and could end up really coming on strong at seasons end like so many former teammates before them have (I.e. Pastore and James last year).

I'm still not completely sold on their top 3. I know that's harsh because they have two straight prime time 2nd places, but Seel, McGoey and Wharrey have proven it on the big stage before, each finishing in the top 50 last year.

I've got them ahead of NA, but it's close. And behind Conestoga. But it's close.

Interesting side note, both these squads I feel like are better out front versions of 2011 North Penn. And 2011 North Penn won a title. The secret, NP had a sneaky good 4-5 day that day.

Also, out of all O'Haras team wouldn't it be ironic if this squad one the title? I think so at least, but they definitely don't.

2. Conestoga
Comparative Teams: 2009 Henderson, 2009 GFS, Downside: 2009 NA

High praise for this Conestoga team comparing them to a state champ and a national qualifier. Plus I ranked them ahead of two of the best three programs of the last half decade. Yes the Conestoga boys are headed into an interesting piece of history. They are looking to have their first breakthrough and grab what would be an historic state title.

Conestoga makes this upcoming state meet super intriguing. Teams like Stoga, Lebo, LaSalle, DT West and CB West will throw their packs up against the super top 3s of Carlisle, Easton, O'Hara and NA.

It's the ultimate test of my preseason top 3 theory and I couldn't have asked for a better science experiment.

But let's not get it twisted, Stoga isn't some spread monster with no front runner, they have Marston out front, a real star who was top 10 last year and is better this year. The guy currently running around 4-5 on their team was top 50 last year at states in James Fenmore Cooper. Then they add Murray, Nelson and Cruikshank to the mix and you got 5 guys who can all be top 50 in the state. That puts you right in line with Henderson 09 (Kellar out front, slew of top 50 guys with no additional medalists behind). The downside of this team is their 2-5 isn't quite as good as I think and they end up in the 40s-70s rather than 20s-50s or something like that. That's still top 2-4 teams in the state I gotta imagine.

They still don't have a 5k under their belt and really haven't tested themselves so far this season. Probably smart to lay low and peak late. But leaves some question marks in the short term about just how good that 2-5 is.

1. Malven Prep
Team comparison: 2007 GFS, Dream Ceiling: 2011-2012 Ohara

Hoey is a real stud at the top of the this squad and that front runner gives then real power. You are going to have a big spread when your top guy is beating KJ by 20 seconds. Even if your 5th man is solid.

The Malvern Prep top 3 is really strong. Josh Hoey is better than I expected and McDevitt has taken a big step. That top 3 took care of O'Hara at Belmont on their home course and then remember what that O'hara top three did at prestates.

I think Wills is going to come on, as I've discussed before. He could be a Gus McKenzie type piece at the 4 and serviceable 5 behind gets you into the nationals hunt like GFS was in 2007. GFS probably could have made nats but one of their big three, Ortiz, had an off day. There will be lots of pressure on the young Josh Hoey to deliver on the big stage.

We really won't ever know how good this team is. Even at regionals, they will likely be the only team on it's first peak, everyone else havig peaked at states.

The moral of the story as always, we need a meet of champs.

They could end up like one of the Ohara teams from years past if their top 3 continues to stay strong all year and a 4 (and 5 especially in the case of 2012 OH) come on at seasons end. It's not likely (those OH teams were both really good and it would be unfair to compare any team to them this year in my opinion) but it's a dream goal for MP because their top 3 is good enough and see some potential in their 4-5.

If a team is making it to nats this year, I think it's Malvern. They've got the pieces to do it in the early going, but it's a long road Til November and December.

Let the games continue.

Top 7 Thoughts: 9/21 Weekend

So we have a link to my PreStates podcast below and a full recap in my super thought #1 in the post below that. But I figured I would touch on some other action in my 7 thoughts of the week. As usual comments and information are appreciated.

#2 Carlisle could be just as good as Foundation
The meet is stacked with individual talent as it always is, but the team battle is also shaping up to be something special. According to Penntrack's entry sheets O'Hara is going to be in attendance at this meet. That throws them against LaSalle, DT West, Carlisle, CV, Red Land, CBW, Henderson and more. There are a ton of exciting subplots in the team race and individually guys like VanKooten, Seiger, James, Faust and Gebhardt slotted to attend. I don't want to get into too much detail because I plan on doing a mid week podcast that previews this meet (if you want to be involved please let me know ASAP, I'm looking for a guest for this week still), but I think this race could have just as much drama as Foundation did.

#3 A District 7 is going to be a brawl for states

The district is quietly loaded. Avonworth had a big time win at PreStates where they established themselves as a state title favorite. But they will have their hands full just trying to break through in their district. Selwickey returns their top 7 from a year ago led by super soph Griffin Mackey. They were 4th a year ago at Districts, missing states by just 17 points. They opened up this season winning the small race at RWB and are clearly hungry for revenge at districts. Avonworth will also have to tangle with Winchester Thurston, a top 10 team a year ago at states who is led by two of the states breakout stars last track season: Landin Delaney and Will Loevner. Pair that duo with Ben Littman (12th at districts last year as a freshman) and you have a dangerous top 3. WT returns 5 guys from last year's district championship where they were 3rd. Then lastly you can't count out Our Lady of Sacred Heart, who was second at districts last year by just 2 points. They return 5 members of that squad and finished second out of the A schools at RWB. 3/4 will get to states. Should be interesting to watch this one unfold.

#4 Paul Power
Look, there has been chatter about the Hershey course and how fast times were that day, but this shouldn't overshadow Power's performance. Here's the thing even if you don't believe it was the same course (and for the record it WAS the same course), he still bested a field that included Jake Brophy, Kevin James and Matt McGoey. So really I see no way to waive this off as not a big deal. Throw times out the window and the performance is still incredibly impressive. Throw times back in and it's historic. I'll be interested to see how fast things go at districts and states this year, that's for sure. I think 15:45 is not safe, and it will take sub 16 to win A, AA and AAA for the first time.

#5 Quiet Wins
With all the buzz around pre states (rightfully so) it was easy to overlook some other impressive wins. Jeff Van Kooten blasted a big win over Zach Skolnevich and Zack White among others. The time was 15:45, over 20 seconds faster than Skolnevich and faster than he ran on the notoriously quick RWB course. Great sign going into Carlisle. Ben Szuhaj got a big over Brian Arita (as CRN continues to show solid improvement) and established himself as another name to watch in the independent league. Brad Faust got a big win over Will Kachman as Altoona took 1-2 at their home meet (Jerrod Sunderland was second for Toona). Lastly, Casey Comber dominated another course cruising to a nearly 30 second win with 15:48. Looking forward to seeing Comber match up with the big boys sometime soon.

#6 Dual Meet Breakouts
Liam Gilligan, a freshman from Springfield Delco, had a big dual meet win in 16:41 to win by roughly 40 seconds. North Penn edged Hatboro Horsham behind a stud race from Michael Cooney who bested teammate Ryan Tung. Connor Sands from CB East was a close third behind Brophy and Fortna in a hard fought East vs West dual that West ended up pulling out. Ben Wilson and Brian Delaney also got solid wins to build on going into their meet at Carlisle this weekend.

#7 GFS looking solid
Nick Dahl dropped an impressive sub 15:30 with teammate Grayson Hepp breaking 16 behind him in 15:54 as the duo led GFS down south in NC. The GFS squad will be matched up with one of the best teams in the state, Malvern Prep, throughout the season, but it's important to remember that this squad is a great team in it's own right. They matched up solidly with LaSalle at the 3k at Belmont and they were ahead of Henderson and North Penn. They are a young team as well. As another well coached team, I think GFS will be dangerous at season's end and may turn heads as soon as Paul Short.

Well at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts

Sunday Conversation

Hey guys so I'm still working through a decent chunk of technical difficulties as I try to get the podcast thing underway. Biggest problem right now is probably my lack of a laptop which makes things a little tricky to navigate sometimes. Anyway, I tried this out. It's a test podcast to see how people feel about it. Please let me know if the link works.

Because it ended up being longer than I thought, I'll post up some time makers in a comment to let you know how things split. But most importantly at this point, let me know if there are problems accessing this through the link below. In the future with a bit more time, I think I will make this more technically sound, but for now this is what we got.

Edit: as of 8:44 PM I am trying this new link, again let me know if this gives you access to the podcast or not

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-eWv1L8cVyJOXltc1pheDh1WnM/edit?usp=docslist_api

Super Thought: PreStates Madness

It was an astounding result in the Boys Gold race that capped off a fantastic day of running out at Hershey. The meet lived up to a lot of the hype and the winning times were absurdly fast.

Warning: the rest of this post will contain spoilers of the action from prestates. If you do not want to know the results, look no further.

Hockenbury and JDL (my new favorite nickname to use) winning was not anything ground breaking. Hockenbury's 16:10 win by roughly 30 seconds was spectacular, 10+ seconds faster than I anticipated and what I thought would be the performance of the day. York Suburban and Avon Grove's coming out parties were something noteworthy as well. I had plenty of material for a recap, and that was before the AAA boys dropped a bomb on Hershey.

15:50 for the winning runner. And it was quite the Powerful performance. I'm sorry I had to.

Paul Power took down the win over a star studded field in an unfathomable time for September 20th: 15:50. It smashed the meet record by 19 seconds. It also makes Power the 4th fastest man on this course ever behind only Russell (2x), Miles and Gunzenhauser. All guys who made it to national championship finals and 3 out of the 4 were regional champions.

I said before the race I said I felt the meet record would fall. I thought sub 16 was possible (but unlikely). I even thought Paul Power would have a nice breakthrough race this weekend and hoped he would have a moment after which people would be like, "hey that power kid is pretty good."

But I never imagined this. I'm still having hard time wrapping my head around the fact that Paul Power may be the favorite for state champ now. Abert is still ahead in my mind but he beat the two guys I thought had the best odds of winning states going into this weekend (James and Brophy). But I'm not going to take this moment to throw more pressure on Power. I'm going to praise him and let others praise him too. He deserves his moment of recognition.

Behind him the race was still amazingly fast. KJ gets redemption with a 15:54 (tied or 8th fastest time ever) and Jake Brophy ran a brilliant 16:01 (which would have won this meet any other year). Both those guys ran great for the second straight week and, although they are probably disappointed they didn't win, have to be pleased with where their training is.

Oh and in other news, O'Hara is for real. There was a stunning amount of doubt surrounding the O'Hara team this weekend (which I'm thinking had to be just trolling at this point) but they beat the penntrack ranked #1 in the state (and I ranked #2 behind Prep and just a smidge ahead of Conestoga) in North Allegheny. What's more impressive (to me at least) is they beat NA at it's own game. O'Hara was better through 3 guys than NA this weekend and held on through 5. Getting Drew Pastore back to form was big. That likely swung the race. And I think he will continue to improve going forward. If he can run with Morro and R James, this team is dangerous. Ryan James was huge with his 6th place finish. Just straight huge. He was right behind McGoey and Wharrey who were 4th and 5th (not a bad race by any stretch, they ran great today as well). Plus I'm not off the Pat James bandwagon at all. Sure he wasn't a top 5 guy today, but this was his first varsity performance and it came on the brutal hills of Hershey. Donovan and Nolan are no slouches, however, as 5-6 guys this go round.

NA was still solid for 3rd, 5 points back of OH and their 4-5 gained valuable experience today. They aren't finished in the title talks.

But you know who else has quietly creeped into the title talks? My Lebanon! That's right the Lebo boys were just 10 points back from O'Hara and 5 back from NA. That's awesome stuff from this packed up squad who rode a 55 second spread to 4th in the meet, one of the best spreads in the field. Ian Baun was the low stick they needed, stepping up for 9th overall. Then T Gunz, Harris, Brandenstein (a freshman) and Stone rounded out a terrific top 5. There is real potential for this squad, especially because WPIALs is no longer at Coopers Lake (a course that historically has given Lebo trouble and NA has excelled) and now is moved to a course where Lebo sweeps their early season invite fairly consistently (Cal I believe). I will say this, at states there is probably more than 6 places between Baun (16:38) and Brophy (16:01). In a front loaded race, the front runners will matter more. Baun is great, narrowing the gap between himself and the NA top two each week, but he will need to be in the medals at states for Lebo to have any shot at a title. And he may need to drag T Gunz or Harris with him. All the same, Ev Hatton is somewhere smiling about the performance of his old squadron.

Now no team beat the out of staters in Severna Park, but I think they weren't too worried about those guys this weekend, they were worrie about seeing how they stacked up against the rest of the state. But admittedly SP has now won two of our biggest invites, PTXC and PreStates. Impressive for them. Also convenient for me because I can compare across races use the SP guys as rough estimators. Abert beat SP's top guy by about 75 seconds at PTXC, Power did it by about 45 here today. Can't take that too seriously, but it's interesting to note.

Clearly the weather is great for fast times. Before today only one person had run 16:10 or faster on this course at this meet. Now there are 4 more who can say they have done it. This comes just a week after a record setting day at Briarwood. This has been great weather and great competition.

The titles are wide open for teams and individuals for AAA.

A couple other small takeaways from the meet.

#1 CB East with 5th today beating out strong squads like Lower Dauphin, State College and Twin Valley. Unfortunately, CB East still remains the biggest long shot of the bunch to make it to states in a brutal D1 field. Stoga, DTW, CB West (who just beat them in a dual meet), CR North and Pennsbury are all ranked ahead of them on my big board, and that's not even counting Henderson (ranked ahead of East on my board) and Bensalem (no longer ranked ahead, but still a dangerous squad). And don't even get me started on a team like Spring Ford (surprised for 9th today) who probably has no shot at making it to states but looks like they have the potential to be a great team. I haven't even mentioned the likes of Rustin and North Penn either.

Well at least we will see some of these great teams like CB East at the Meet of Champs. Wait what? There isn't a meet of champs? That was just a dream I had last night? President Obama didn't give me a Pulitzer Prize for my blog? Oh.

#2 Some other noteworthy performances came from Jon Perlman (7th overall in 16:30), Eric Diestelow (bounce back day in 14th), and Joe Piscano (15th from St Joes Prep). LD had a strong showing in 6th overall with Kyler Shea continuing to shine, finishing 24th as just a sophomore. Josh Smith continues to show signs of returning to full health (20th today), but no Kolor for Seneca which I'm hoping is not injury related. Nice race for Quiggle, especially given his training partners absence (18th).

#3 in the AA race, Lakeland was in there. Thought for sure they were A. Can anyone confirm? But in other AA team news, York Suburban is for real. Huge debut for Brady Wilt (2nd to Hockenbury) and teammate Donovan Mears responded for 4th. York Suburban looks like a serious title contender against Scranton Prep, who looked very strong last week. I'm also not ready to count out Grove City, who was second today despite neither Budnik or Benka cracking the top 5. This team will be there when it counts at year end. Pottsgrove is thinking the same way. They were a surprise 4th today. Throw in defending champs Tunkhannock and you got yourself an interesting game.

#4 how big is Avonworth? I thought they were AAA in track so how are they A in cross? Can anyone confirm ...

If Avonworth is a single A squad, then they may have grabbed the favorite position winning the White race over Elk Lake (my pre race pick). Elk Lake looked strong finishing 2nd with a nice pack, but will need a breakthrough medalist or two to get a state title. Bedell and Bell led the way at 17th and 18th today.

#5 Hockenbury stole the non Gold Race show with his ultimate "imagine if he had competition" type performance, but other guys showed some nice wheels out there. Beyond Wilt and Degroot-Lutzner, there was a big 2nd place in the White Race by Liam Raeshler (ran unattached at PTXC and showed nice improvement today) in 16:49, plus a solid sub 17 mark from Colten Trimble in 3rd. Andrew Koryak looked good in 4th for Vincentian Academy and Matt Murray carried some of his track momentum to the trails in 5th. Jonathan Condly had one of the biggest "who's that guy" moments of the year with his 3rd place run in the blue race for Jim Thorpe (16:47) he beat out Mears and Noah Smith from Ringold. Nate Morgan was 6th for Lakeland.

Well that's all I got on PreStates! Results are up on runhigh now! Check it out, it's great stuff.

Thought #7: Pre PreStates

So i guess I'm getting that 7th thought in after all. If you want to see my top 101, scroll down a bit and check out the two posts below.

The pre states meet at Hershey looks straight loaded honestly so since I have a little bit of time I thought I'd try and sneak in a preview.

Remember, as Mr Collins pointed out, this race will be split into 3 separate races (which you guys know drives me up a wall) and we will be comparing times from different fields. But hey we will have to deal, should still be a great meet.

The meet record is, I believe, 16:09 by Ben Furcht in 08. That was the same course as it is now, and was the first time anyone ran that version. Pretty impressive mark, that I think is probably coming down this year. Weather has been great and we have some top notch runners on the itinerary. The course record is 15:45 by Tony Russell. That mark I believe is quite safe.

So let's do this division by division preview wise and since I don't remember which color goes with which class I'm just going to call them AAA, AA and A. Sorry if I mess up what division people are in, I'm still kinda trying to keep track of that. As usual your comments and feedback are appreciated.

A
The top two teams from a year ago are back in Masterman an Saegertown. Masterman won this meet last fall, but Saegertown got the ultimate prize of a state championship when the teams returned. Masterman looks strong again this year led by Julian Degroot-Lutzner, one of my favorite district 12 non PCL runners of all time and one of the guys in the mix for a top 5 spot at the A state championships. JDL won this meet last year and I believe he is the favorite to win again this go round. That low stick would be big for Masterman. Beyond the defending state champs in Sargertown, Masterman will also face tough challenges from Elk Lake and Lakeland. Lakeland has the big time one-two punch of Morgan and Arzie, while Elk Lake has a pack of solid runners with Bedell favored to lead the charge this go round. Elk Lake returns basically their whole squad from a year ago when they placed 4th at this meet. I think they are one of the current A state title favorites and will be favorites at this meet. Their D2 rivals Lakeland will give them trouble if a pack develops behind Morgan and Arzie, two top 15 guys in the state a year ago who had strong track seasons to back up their credentials on the trails.

Individually, this will be a big test for Nate Morgan as he tries to become the leading chaser for Griffin Molino's title. But he will have to battle to the very end against defending champ JDL, South Side's Colten Trimble and Greg House from New Hope. Not to mention his teammate Mark Arzie and Barclay from Saegertown.

Ultimately when the dust clears I have JDL taking down a big win to follow up a nice run at Bull Dog last week. I think he is going to be the most big race ready of the bunch and the most talented, although I do expect Trimble to give him all he can handle. I see those two as the top 2 followed by Morgan and House. It's likely that someone off my radar will be in the top 5, but Arzie certainly has the talent to be upfront as well.

As for the team title I got Elk Lake with a big early season statement, taking the title in the A race at Hershey.

AA
The boys team title is going to be quite intriguing here as well, no Tunkhannock but we do have Pottsgrove, Grove City, York Suburban and Bonner set to line up. Remember Pottsgrove quickly change gears from mid pack in AAA to AA powerhouse and with 1st and 2nd place finishes at states the last two years they are an experienced bunch trying to create a mini dynasty. Amazing stuff.

They are the favorites in my eyes to defending their meet title, but Grove City has two of the best talents in the field in Budnik and Benka to lead the way. Meanwhile Bonner will try to represent the PCL well on the small school stage behind stud front runner Ryan Rasatter who was 7th here a year ago. And then of course is the dark horse of the bunch in York Suburban. The YS boys acquired Brady Wilt in the off season and that is a huge pick up. This was already a strong squad with a recent state gold under their belt, but throw in the reigning A district champ and you got yourself a squad. I see this powerhouse of district 3 battling out with Pottsgrove for the title, but ultimately I think the Pottsgrove boys will be ready for the title and add another trophy to the case.

Lopez, the projected leader of the Pottsgrove squad, will have individual title hopes as well, but it appears for now that everyone will be taking a back seat to the defending champ Dominic Hockenbury. Hock's last big invite was disappointing by his own hard standards because Abert was able to open up such a large gap on him. But that likely means he comes into this race pissed and looking to make a statement. That's bad news for everybody else in this field. I expect Hockenbury to take this one in something pretty quick, and I don't think it will be a tight race. I'd be willing to project as fast as low 16:20s if he chooses to really go for it.

But anytime you chase a fast pace, there is potential for a mistake and that's where the other top boys in the field will step in. Benka and Budnik both grabbed state hardware last year and Benka will be chasing his third straight individual state medal in 2014. Benka came out the gates strong at RWB and seems like the choice for 2nd this weekend. I like Budnik's long term prospects, but I expect him to peak best at season's end, like he did last year. Brady Wilt is in his first big meet of the year and he is looking to represent a new jersey in 2014, a juicy subplot to this race. Wilt's ability to front run will not only transform his team's title hopes, but also it will help elevate his teammates performances. I'm excited to watch Wilt compete on Saturday. A deep sleeper in this race is Wilson's Joe Espinal. He had a break out year for Wilson last spring but tired out a bit from tons of doubling and tripling by the time he hit states. A fresher and year older Espinal will be dangerous if he finds the same success on the trails that he did on the oval.

AAA
What a great race this ought to be. I find it interesting to read what people have been saying about this match up. Most people aren't too confident about O'Hara, but I think they are a real threat in this one. I've also seen James buried in some predictions, but I expect him to contend for the title.

I think NA will win, their three appear better than Ohara's and that's where this race will be decided in my eyes, but this is a great chance to see just how good Ryan James and Rob Morro are. If they are top 10-15 in a field like this, that's an excellent sign for two developing runners. Ohara also will likely get a boost from Drew Pastore and Pat James, the JV champ a week ago. That 4-5 could swing the race if they out duel NA's 4-5.

The team getting no play (at least from what I've read) is Mt Lebo. This team has a really strong pack and I still see a breakout race in the future from T Gunz. Baun has looked great as a front runner and they appear to have the best pack of the top teams at this meet. I will be interested to see if they can manage to shorten the gap between themselves and NA.

Then there are some intriguing district match ups with Twin Valley vs Lower Dauphin and Bensalem vs CB East. Those have huge state implications long term. East and Bensalem are both squads who are hoping to crack into the very difficult top 5 at D1 and both are trying to do it with a different style. Bensalem will try to utilize a tough pack running style while CB East will ride Brophy and Sands, who had a nice tri meet against Pennridge and CB West finishing third behind Brophy and Fortna.

LD bested Red Land in a dual meet earlier this season and they have a really intriguing group of youngsters in Cassell and Shea. Weidner is developing star power as we move through the season with some impressive times already and he will provide a great low stick out front. But Twin Valley shouldn't be overlooked. They have a nice pack with the Geary boys and Diagcombo (most likely just butchered that name). He was top 50 in the state last year remember and Twin Valley wants to return to states as a team this year and LD is one of the multitude of teams they may have to beat out to get there. They are coming off a tough loss to parkland at Centaur and have greats motivation for this meet.

Lastly you have to talk about State College. They lost Cather, Adams and Golembski from last year's 4th place squad at states, but they have managed to reload behind Milligan and some promising young talent. They have a legacy to protect and some have projected them as high as 2nd in this meet. We will see how they handle the other great teams on Saturday.

Individually this race should be exciting as well. James is looking for a rebound after last week, while Brophy, who has been doing a lot of hard running, is also looking to rebound in his own way after a tough loss to Hoey. It can't be understands that Brophy runs this course quite well. He was top 30 as a freshman and top 10 as a sophomore with arguably his two best races of the season coming at states. He hasn't faded from the hills or the pressure once. That's excellent.

The NA boys McGoey and Wharrey will both face their first hilly course of the year, but Wharrey and McGoey have both excelled here before, especially at this meet, which NA torched last year. This may surprise some folks, but I'm picking Wharrey to outlast McGoey in this one. I feel a big break coming for Wharrey this week on the hills where I think he matches up better to his competition than on the fast courses.

Paul Power is a defending state medalist and sub 15:40 guy who amazingly flies under the radar on a consistent basis. This is his chance to change that. I'm not sure he can crack that top 4, but I think he will impress this weekend.

Sean Weidner will try and continue his hot streak on the grueling state course. He ran a great pre states race last year. Alex Milligan had one of his firs breakthroughs at states in cross. He will look to bounce back from Spiked Shoe where he was 8th.

Others to watch include Josh Smith, who is still recovering from injury, Eric Diestelow, looking for revenge after Bull Dog, Ethan Linderman, a top notch WPIAL runner, Jon Perlman, top 50 at states last year and in his first big meet of the year, and Jeff Kirsenbaum, the Bull Dog champ from Methacton.

In the sleeper category you have the Seneca Valley boys who are probably to good to be called sleepers at this point. Quiggle and Kolor will continue to yo-yo as a duo and try and close that gap on Linderman. Scott Seel, Ryan James and Rob Morro have big team aspirations to motivate them. Gabe Lamm from Whitehall is looking to rebound after a hard meet at DeSales, and you also have deep sleepers like Lukas Marcelis from Wissahickon and Joe Ellis from GV. Plus Alex Ramirez from Bensalem who impressed in his first meet of the season. Lastly I'm still not giving up on Dylan Eddinger from Boyertown. At some point this cross season I see a breakthrough coming.

Ultimately this is a really tough race for me to predict. This is a really talented group of guys each with a chance to pull out the W. But in the end I have to make some picks for the fans! All 3 of them!

So here we go ...
10. Perlman
9. Kirshenbaum
8. Seel
7. Linderman
6. Weidner
5. Power
4. McGoey
3. Wharrey
2. Brophy
1. James

I think less than 5 seconds separates the top 2 in this one and the winner takes down the course record. Assuming the weather in Hershey is as nice as it has been out here on Long Island.

Good luck to all at their meets this weekend!

Thought #6: 51-101

Technically didn't get to 7 thoughts this week, but with the bonus thought and a few bonus thoughts at the bottom here I hope you won't be too offended.

So as requested here is the rest of the top 101 starting from 51 down to 101. Keep in mind that things get very tricky to rank the farther down the list and things get very difficult to place in order and choose which guys are on the list. So what id love to hear from you guys in addition to the usual comments on the list is to drop some names of guys that you think deserve top 101 status so I can get them on my radar going forward.

So without further ado, here we go.

51. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
52. K. Nelson, Conestoga
53. J. DeAngelo, Carlisle (+39)
54. M. Scarpill, CB South (+57)
55. S. Smith, Towanda
56. P. Murray, Conestoga
57. L. Delaney, Winchester
58. N. Morgan, Lakeland
59. A. Sauer, Pennsbury (+27)
60. D. Stroh, Altoona

A couple things to note of this group. I expect Gonoude to be a top 50 guy by season's end (he's one of my picks for top 5 in AA) but it's early and other guys are out there doing work so my list will always try to highlight the achievements of guys out there racing and dropping times if possible. But Gonoude is very talented and I expect big things. Huge stretch from DeAngelo finishing up now. He's a legit #2 for Carlisle, who needs it right now. Penntrack's team rankings I thought were quite good, but I disagree with Carlisle at 6, not sure they are a top 10 team. But DeAngelo gives them a potent top 2 and with Wisner running well that top 3 is dangerous enough to make noise. Scarpill is one of my guys this year. I see big things for him, I've been on the bandwagon all year and I think sub 16 and top 20 at districts are in the cards here. Nate Morgan is probably too low here, he's better than this ranking but he has a chance to turn things around quickly at prestates.

(Small side note, when I say lower on the list I mean up in number like 55 is lower than 45 and 55 is higher than 65. Just to clarify because I know others use the reverse).

61. A. Milligan, SC
62. A. Hanna, CR South (+22)
63. C. Holm, Radnor
64. C. McMenamin, Souderton (NR)
65. R. Morro, O'Hara (NR)
66. J. DeGroot-Lutzner, Masterman
67. J. MaGuire, CR South (+17)
68. T. Quiggle, Seneca Valley
69. N. Cruikshank, Conestoga (NR)
70. G. Hepp, GFS

Who is Connor McMenamin for Souderton? That's what I was asking after I saw those DeSales results, he really impressed with his third place finish. He and Slavin are a couple Sophs that can fly up this list with some consistent performances like that. Intriguing situation to watch. Why did I only have one O'Hara guy in my top 101 last week? Because I'm an idiot that's why. They delivered last week and thing week at Pre States they can make a big statement against NA. I'm not saying there will be an upset, I'm just saying I expect that race to be a dog fight. I'm a big Lutzner fan, he's a good A runner and should do serious damage at that state meet. Hanna and MaGuire had very strong performances this past weekend. If they were in the championship race we might have been talking about them as top 50 guys yesterday. Great stuff by them.

71. P. Grant, LaSalle
72. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter
73. W. Loevner, Winchester
74. R. Budnik, Grove City
75. M. Kolor, Seneca Valley (NR)
76. E. Diestelow, WC East
77. B. Wilt, York Suburban
78. R. Mitchell, LaSalle (NR)
79. Z. White, West Allegheny
80. J. Cooper, Conestoga

That's right, 5 Conestoga guys in the top 80. Possibly a little bold with that move, but without any 5ks it's hard too place these guys completely accurately. Remember Cooper was in the top 50 at states last year so if he's this team's 5 at season's end you are looking at the probable state champs. I'm hoping Loevner a speedy recovery, he had a nice start to his comeback last week. If he focuses on getting healthy he will jump the list when it matters. Really like that Heinauer, Loevner, Delaney training group. I'm high on all 3 guys. Diestelow dropped too low this week looking back on it that was an overreaction. Chris Cummings would be disappointed. For the record this LaSalle team is going to be really fun. Like really fun. They're spread is sick and if Price bounces back (he was in my top 101 last week) there spread can be in the ball park of 10 seconds by states. Yes that's not a type-o. And thankfully as I learned recently from one of you out there, LaSalle and O'Hara and our St. Joe's individuals can all be at states together this year. Sweet.

81. Q. Wasko, Cumberland Valley
82. B. Delaney, Manheim T (+7)
83. K. Shinn, Wyomissing
84. J. Connors, Wilson
85. N. Smith, Ringold
86. D. Knudsen, Mifflin
87. J. Espinal, Wilson (+3)
88. J. Piscano, St. Joe's (+8)
89. G. Allgayer, Mercersburg (NR)
90. C. Trimble, South Side

There is no downside to getting to type south side in a post about high school distance running. I hope Trimble stays on this list forever. Keep in mind Espinal Wilson is different than Connors Wilson as one is district 11 the other is D3. Also keep an eye on both as I expect both guys to be movers this year. Connors was money at season' send last year.

91. J. Smith, Avon Grove
92. K. Perry, Scranton Prep (NR)
93. J. Yurchak, Hempfield (+5)
94. D. Wilkinson, Red Land
95. E. Goebel, LaSalle (NR)
96. N. Wolk, Peters? (NR)
97. B. Mass, CB West (NR)
98. C. Wills, Malvern Prep
99. S. Bullock, DT West
100. A. Ramirez, Bensalem
101. D. Quigley, Freedom (NR)

Three different Parkland guys were in the top 101 at some point during the drafting of this and so too was Gabe Lamm. D11 is quickly making a name for itself. Seriously is this the year for D11!!

Also sorry to Lebo, you guys probably deserved another guy or two on this list. Sorry Ev.

PreStates will have the biggest effect on the rankings for next week most likely just like Briarwood was the most important meet this weekend and PTXC the weekend before that. Sorry for one that means for the small schools at the small meets.

One last fun fact. In the history of the prestates meet (AAA), no team has run prestates and then won the state meet. Looks like Conestoga is the state champ this year! (For the record I hope Ohara or NA win states so I can stop brining this coincidence up every year).

Well I think that's all the facts I wanted to squeeze in pre weekend. Comment away my friends.

Thought #5: The Top 50

Alright folks it's time for a little top 50 action. I included the latest round of dual meets in my thinking (glad to see this up on penntrack now) although dual meets have a decent amount lower pull than the invites.

Just like last week I made a top 101 but will only post the top 50 (unless someone specifically wants to see all 101). I will include how much up the list a person has jumped for comparison sake. Remember, since I ranked 101 guys last week, a NR indicates the person was not even in my top 101 last week and is now in the top 50. So quite a nice jump in other words.

As usual extra bits of info are nice to know an your opinion always matters.

50. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
49. S. Slavin, Pleasant Valley (NR)
48. J. Kirshenbaum, Methacton (NR)
47. S. Seel, NA
46. K. Lapansky, Easton
45. R. Barton, DT West (+33)
44. M. Kravitz, North Pocono (+27)
43. R. Fortna, CB West (+22)
42. I. Baun, Mt. Lebanon (+18)
41. R. James, O'Hara (NR)

As usual there is a big chunk of movement down around the bottom of the top 50. Ryan James had a big race, this was a big step for O'Hara who have a nice contingent of James boys running well. 3 of their top 5 at season's end may have the last name James. If Ryan makes the jump this year, O'Hara has a streak of multiple state medalists that it's looking to keep in tact and I think they certainly can do it. I think I was a little low on the WPIAL guys in general last week so adding a little bit of spice to line up this week, jumping Baun and others you will see later. Kravitz had a dominating performance and is another guy who I see as a potential state medalist out of district 2. They usually have solid contenders like Jacob Fetterman who sneak up for medals. Barton joins the top 50 for West, continuing to jump the rankings. He beat all the Stoga guys not named Marston last week despite being in the sophomore race. If he develops into a strong 2, DT becomes a lot scarier. Nice win for Kirshenbaum following up a solid run at Viking. CB West is a legit team, they are state qualifying contenders without a doubt.

40. E. Linderman, Canon-Mac (+19)
39. A. Benka, Grove City
38. G. Mackey, Selwick (+6)
37. R. Tung, NP (+18)
36. J. Susalla, Plum (+6)
35. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
34. B. Faust, Altoona
33. B. Arita, CRN
32. Z. Skolnevich, QV
31. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+23)

More WPIAL in this section, jumps for these guys for consistent races and just overall, I felt I was understating these guys last week. Tung was one of the most impressive performances of the weekend that just flew under the radar. If he can go out and beat some big PA names that will cement his reputation as a medalist contender. I'm all aboard the Griffin Mackey train, I think the kid is going to be really good. He's just scratching the surface of what he can become. Heinauer is looking like a stud and North Hills has a good history of banging out stars. Big first win for him of the season. Arita looks great early as well, especially considering you know the North guys are still training at a high level. If he progress that way someone like James Zingarini used to over the last few weeks of the season, he's going to be top 20 at states in AAA at least.

30. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
29. H. Sappey, DT West
28. J. Tidball, Tunkhannock (+24)
27. E. Graca, Fox Chapel
26. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg
25. Jo. Hoey, Malvern Prep (+18)
24. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin
23. J. VanKooten, Pitts CC
22. A. Knapp, Henderson
21. D. Green, James Buchanon (+5)

Don't get it twisted, a +5 when you are already this high is a big deal and Daniel Green looks great in the early going. Another big run, winning at Big Spring and continuing to be a AA force. Throw him in the title conversation in that division. Sappey proved he belongs in this tier of guys, great consistency out of him. Knapp is looking solid, and once he gets to post season 5ks instead of 2 miles his true XC wheels we come out. The biggest movers out of this bunch are Jack Tidball and Josh Hoey. Hoey moving farther up the list than any freshman while I've been doing his list. Huge statement for the rookie on a tough Belmont Course. I can only see him continuing to improve as the year goes on and that makes Malvern's top 3 incredibly dangerous. With Wills (a low 4:20s miler who I think will continue to improve in XC) I expect this team to develop a nice group behind them. It's still just September and they are aiming to beak at the end of November, that is ages of time. As for Tidball, he is another guy who threw his name in the AA title conversation. He beat Brehm and a slew of other solid runners and maybe Brehm wasn't going all out or whatever but a win is a win and to be the second PA guy behind only Griffin Molino is a statement race. I'm on the Tidball bandwagon for sure.

20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford
18. N. Dahl, GFS
17. D. Perretta, Beaver
16. W. Kachman, Bedford
15. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
14. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+7)
13. H. Wharrey, NA (+3)
12. A. Gebhardt, New Oxford
11. S. Ritz, GA (+1)

Alright I admit it, I'm drinking the Malvern Prep Kool Aid right now. This may be a spot or two high for McDevitt, but I placed up here out of respect for his great performance at one of the biggest meets of the week for the second straight week. Sam Ritz is quietly having a great season. He looks excellent on the Belmont Hills and could play major spoiler on a fast course like Lehigh. At Paul Short he could turn heads big time with a tough run against Albert and co. Wharrey seems like the next big thing. I can't pull the trigger for any higher right now, just because at this point in the list the talent is off the charts, but Wharrey has been running like a man this year. I'm still of the opinion he has a very realistic shot at being the top guy on NA by season's end, crazy considering how big a fan I am of his teammate Matt McGoey. George Bailey continues to excel out of Bedford Falls, just want to see him matched up against some big names. Merry Christmas you old building and loan.

For the record these It's a Wonderful Life references may never stop, I love that movie. So go see it now if you want to be in the loop.

7d. S. Webb, Pennsbury
7c. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
7b. M. McGoey, NA
7a. C. Comber, Horsham (+7)

Comber with a huge jump this week, perhaps too huge, but he obliterated the times of future state champs Hibbs and Quinn. He is running great despite very little top level competition and Horsham knows how to coach them up. But really I stop to comment here because I see all 4 of these guys as nearly identical in ability. Webb won't sit at 10 for long but the other guys have been racing and killing it so they deserved some respect. But like I said literally, identical to me. Really difficult to put them in any sort of order.

6. A. Marston, Conestoga (+3)
5. K. James, O'Hara
4. J. Brophy, CB East (+2)
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. C. Abert, Easton
1. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep (+3)

I documented a lot of this reasoning in Thought #1, but basically Abert had a great race but Hoey may have had an All Time race. Even before all the course measuring stuff, Hoey's time looked great, with it, that makes him look even better. If you put him anywhere near Rosa level he is up with the best the state has ever see . But we can't forget about Abert. He crushed another top 10 guy in brutal heat and conditions. He's looking like a Footlocker Finalist already. We just can't overreact to either guys performance. I thought Hoey would be better in the preseason, considering his track marks, and he backed it up here. But Abert is one of the most established XC guys in the state. If they race at Paul Short (which I believe they are supposed to) it will be a fantastic race. If Abert can hang with Hoey at Paul Short, a course where Hoey has the advantage, that will be a big statement.

Marston makes a big jump this week, out of tier 1.5 and into tier 1. It might be a bit premature with no real 5k experience, but the guy just looks driven and hungry. I almost put him ahead of KJ which is saying something.

I wanted to go Brophy at 3 honestly but decided I should let the state champ and NXN qualifier who has soloed 4:12 and is undefeated this season keep his top 3 spot. Brophy has been very good this year after a very compelling track season where his stat did not get to fully shine because he wasn't in any of those fast 2 miles that others were. Molino is a stud, but Brophy is so good it's a conversation.

Juniors have won 2 out of the last 3 state titles in AAA, and this year might make it 3 out of 4 if Brophy pulls it out. The power of age is shrinking, the freshman and sophomores are climbing this list like never before and the Juniors are becoming serious title threats across the board.

Or at least ... That's what I think. And these ... These are my thoughts.

Thought #4: North Allegheny and History (Plus a Bonus Thought)

North Allegheny might be the most consistently great team of all the squads in the state. But somehow they are also the most unpredictable. How does that make any sense you might ask? Well allow me to try my best to explain.

NA has won the WPIAL every year for the past decade or so, an unparalleled dominance for any of the major districts. And they have followed up those performances by finishing as the top district 7 team at states every year I have been following cross country (2006 and on). They have finished in the top 5 teams every year since 2007, with a state title in 2010 (the only non D1 title) runner up finishes in 09 and 13 and third place finishes in 07, 08 and 11. That's unheard of consistency in the ultra competitive AAA.

But here's what blows my mind about NA, they are always changing their identity. Losing big names doesn't phase them. All signs indicating they are not going to shine are usually wrong. But the reverse has been true as well. Some of the teams with the most hype around them fell short of their ultimate goals.

Let me explain. In 2007, the Coatesville super team was gone (or at least we all thought so) and the title was up for grabs. NA was the early season favorite, they won prestates, but that title was over taken by NP at the Carlisle invite (NA struggled hard to bounce back from their efforts at the state course. One of many examples that running the state course back to back is a disadvantage). After locking up another WPIAL title, NA was a clear favorite for 2nd at states. But alas, the NA boys couldn't get their 3-5 to come up big enough and they were stunned by Coatesville and finished 3rd. What many thought would be NA's best team of the decade came up short, and graduated their only two top 50 finishers from states who were 9th and 12th. So they were finished right? North Penn, Coatesville, Upper Dublin and Carlisle all returned a ton more and got the preseason hype.

But then NA stunned everyone by coming out the gate fast, led by a guy who ran on their JV for three years, a 5th year senior and a sophomore taking a big jump NA dominated all the big name teams at Carlisle including the defending champs in NP and one of the preseason favorites in Upper Dublin.

(NA didn't run prestates this year, worked out pretty well. You know who did? My squad of UD. I ran 20 minutes in the 5k and bombed in the JV race a week after running 18:10 at Hershey. The rest of our top guys bombed too including future mile state champ Mike Palmisano. My coach vowed never to go back to that prestates meet if we were going to be running Carlisle fast. You know, my coach the state record holder in the mile, but yeah the D3 guys are fine running that course right before states. Doesn't effect them at all.)

That NA team was really good and although they lost their front running steam, they completely changed their identity into a great pack with a tight spread. That team was so good they not only made nationals, they took 12th there.

But you know what happened at states that season? They were upset. They were bested by North Penn again and stunned by a better pack in LaSalle by 1 point for 2nd. Even this national caliber squad couldn't get on the medal stand. It was over for NA, they were chokers, they were history. They lost 3 of their top 5 and were again facing an up hill climb to just win districts.

And guess what happened? They proved everybody wrong again. They beat a very good Baldwin team at districts, turned Gil into a true blue front runner and got 2nd at states, flipping the script on a very good LaSalle team. The choking stigma was gone, this team was legit.

But beyond Gil, they didn't return too much. However, they added Logan Steiner to the squad, a valuable pick up and with Gil as the favorite for the state title, things were looking good.

Then Gil got hurt and Baldwin got good. Baldwin had a very strong pack of guys led by returning state medalist Bobby Bishop and bested a Gil-less NA team at leagues. The streak looked like it was over.

But A hobbled Gil made his way back to the line, they beat Baldwin and then Gil stunned the state by taking two golds the next weekend. NA finally got their state title.

And now we come to NA's next chance to get that state. This group of guys leading this squad now: McGoey, Wharrey and Seel, first made their debut in 2011, the year after NA won states.

They return very few guys and meanwhile Mt Lebanon had developed into state title favorites. Lebo had their way with NA all season. They crushed them at Tri States. I remember thinking there was no way the streak wouldn't end.

But what do you know NA proved me wrong again. Fate intervened with a horrible storm and NA rode the efforts of Luoco and Seel and other youngsters behind Steiner and stunned Lebo. They followed it up by beating them again at states, although their youth cost them a shot at the title.

The last two seasons the tight NA pack of their national qualifying year was back. They got hype, they performed big in some marquee races, they won more WPIAL titles and they grabbed silvers last year. But the road at states has been bumpy. In 2012 they were surprised by a fiesty top 3 and CRN. In 2013, despite a pack of 5 guys in the top 50 and 3 in the top 30, O'Hara came within a few seconds of stealing their medals.

But now in 2014 there is no more youth to throw around. Their young studs are now old stars. It has to be this year, just like in 2010 when Gil was about to graduate, it felt like it had to be that year.

And of course in classic NA fashion, they are reshaping their image once again. Now they resemble the CRN and O'Hara teams they battled with at states the last two years. They have the big time top 3 and two capable 4-5 men. It is ironic now that they have flipped the script yet again.

And don't get it twisted. This is a big 3. McGoey was a stud all last year on the track, dropping to 9:12 in the 3200m. Wharrey was a near medalist last year in his first serious varsity year. And he is even better this year. He is a perfect partner for McGoey and suddenly a top 10 guy in the state who will give McGoey all he can handle at states and districts. He may be their #1 at season's end.

Then there is Seel. He lost Love, a well documented travesty, but he still has been strong this year. Plus he is clutch at states. He is one of just 7 guys still in high school to finish in the top 50 in the state each of the last two years. The other 6? Abert, James, Brophy, Brehm, Gebhardt, and Sam Webb. Wow, that's fine company.

Don't get it twisted, NA is the favorite at states this year. Although a transfer got them their state title in 2010, I don't expect a transfer to take away their 2014 title.

Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.

(Bonus Thought: listening to that NA rise to power story did anyone else see a super strong resemblance to Ohara? Think about it ... Two years of heartbreak, the second year they made it to nationals and proved just how good they were ... Then, when they lose 3 of their top 5 and everyone counts them out and calls them chokers, they stay surprisingly relevant behind the top 5 finish of their Junior leader. The next year that Junior is a Senior, he just ran 9:03 in the spring and he is hungry after a couple close misses in his state time pursuits. He made nationals the previous year for the first time as an individual after a team stint and now is looking to lead a group of relative unknowns to a state title during his Senior year and last chance. C'mon? You can't tell me you don't see it. All that's missing is the transfer (nick smart graduates a year too early to qualify, that would have just made it spooky). Keep an eye on this elaborate metaphor.)

Thought #3: Making Sense of an Odd Meet Set Up

So serious question right now: what is the deal with these meets where they run every race by class? Are they just trying to make me upset?

I have a tough time just combining races and saying yeah those results mean the same thing. Like who knows if Smucker would have run faster with more competition or if he benefited from being in a smaller race where he gained confidence being at the front? Same goes for Sappey of DT West.

Now I'm thinking mainly of the Cherokee meet when I say this, but North Penn, Governor Mifflin and Rustin went to another meet with the same set up and made me just as confused with guys like Carmody putting on big races but dodging someone like Ryan Tung, a legit state medalist candidate and sub 16 man. I would have liked to see how they stack up head to head to see where Carmody is as a state qualifier candidate. Plus Rustin and NP are both competing against each other in the top 10 of the district based on a quick analysis of early results, it would be nice to have a good idea of what each squad has. The scores show NP dominating, but that is slightly skewed because A) they are a huge school and B) their freshman dominated relative to Rustin. And really I'm not sure how many freshman will make an impact at districts (although NP has some nice pieces to work with to develop a pack by season's end). Rustin with Carmody and Hontz as well as Coates and Vogt look like they have a nice pack so far, but I would have liked to see what it looked like all together. NP will be decent this year, especially with a front runner like Tung who looked quite strong this weekend in an under the radar performance.

Neither team is in state qualifying team right now in my eyes, but top 10 in D1 is a noble goal and an impressive achievement.

The big dogs were in NJ for Cherokee with Conestoga again running a dang 2 mile race and again not running full squad. Plus they had their dudes spread out in different races.

If you think that's tricky DT West had the same fate with their boys spread across 4 races with legitimate varsity contenders in each one.

Plus you got Henderson and a Sam Webb-less Pennsbury, a couple teams vying for states, with their guys spread across the races. Did I mention it also was just a 2 mile?

Seriously, I don't see the appeal of this meet. Unless I guess your DT West and you can win the meet despite not having the best traditional team score.

It was a nice overall showing for PA teams with Conestoga and DT West both having strong days. Stoga did not have one of their top 5 guys in Killian Nelson but still managed to beat DTW in the combined scoring by roughly 50 points. Marston is a stud, he looks great right now, just needs to showcase that talent on a dang 5k. Behind him the top 5 is developing: and it's a good one. Murray, Nelson, Cruikshank and Cooper are the next 4 and Cooper was a top 50 guy in the state last year. If they get their top 5 in the top 50, it's hard for me to imagine them slipping past 2nd and winning is very possible.

I'm still convinced in this diluted AAA, you probably need two state medalists to get you a title in addition to a nice pack. It's hard to say or sure because we saw three of the states best teams ever the last two years in addition to some other killer teams, but that's my hunch at this point. NA has a better top 3 then Stoga right now and at states that top 3 becomes even more valuable. Stoga needs to get someone to close the gap on the developing Wharrey and 3-4 guys in front of Seel. They essentially need to be last year's NA team, with a better front runner. That gets them right there for the title.

As for DT West, as Sappey continues to assert himself, their potential grows a bit. I will say this, people are so high on their 1-7 depth and that's nice and all but any way you slice it only 5 guys score. So I don't really care if DT West can put 7 in front of somebody's 4 or 5, if that other squad's top 3 blows you out of the water at states there is no beating them.

At states, basically everyone is at least good which means those 51-150 spots are practically random. Run that race 100x and you get 100 different combinations. So things are too unpredictable for 4-5 for most teams and things almost become interchangeable. That's why your top 3 or so guys become so crucial. In my eyes it's about getting guys in the top 50 at states. That's the key.

But here's the thing, I still like this DT West team a lot and see them as a potential sleeper at seasons end and it's because of their depth.

But wait I just said it didn't matter didn't I? What the heck train?

Well here's the thing, it matters in a different way. They have young depth. That means they still have so much potential for 5 guys to develop into studs. And I see lots of guys with potential beyond Sappey like the Barton and Oneill and Bullock to name a few. Those guys have to continue to tighten the spread on Sappey, then this team becomes scary. If you get a 30 second spread over 5k (they were about 30 second over 2 miles this weekend) with your top dude in the 20s at states (about where I currently project Sappey) your team looks a lot like ... 2013 NA! Which means DT West has the potential to be a top 2 team in the state. But they have to continue to improve, tighten the pack and Sappey has to set the tone out front by getting into the medals.

Behind these two teams we saw interesting performances from Henderson and Pennsbury. Henderson has been discussed a fairly decent amount already and the bottom line with them is I will wait to judge what they have as long as possible. Right now Knapp is heading to states by himself, but a lot can change. Nice race for Smucker though.

I was very encouraged by Pennsbury's showing. Assuming they are going to get a healthy Webb back, we are looking at a roughly 110 point swing in the merged standings. That wouldn't be enough to get DTW, but it would put them in their league and way clear of Henderson. Sauer was solid as the new leader in Webb's absence and behind him Bortman and Wick stepped up big time. They also had a few youngsters in the other races like Sauer's brother that looked like they could potentially fill the gap the team has at #5.

Pennsbury will need to get Webb back healthy, but assuming he is there, they have 4 guys who look strong. This was Pennsbury's first competitive race as well, meaning they should adjust to racing and continue to improve. I still Sauer as a force, especially at Districts on a fast course so that 1-2 punch is sick. With the current all around depth in D1, making states is going to be really hard and all 5 guys will matter at districts, unlike states, where a there is more of a range of talent and just more points overall available. But Pennsbury is off to a nice start in their quest to get back to states.

Thought #2: Appropriately Titled

The new classification changes were going to shake up the state landscape at least a little bit. I mean just ask Grove City who went from being a mid to back of the pack team in AAA and is now suddenly a year in and year out power. The same goes for Tunkhannock, the defending state champs.

Overall, the winner of this classification change so far seems to be district 2. Their AAA depth fall off hard with the loss of Tunkhannock and Dallas, but District 2 was never a strong title contender in AAA. Now D2 is becoming the powerhouse of AA. For starters last years champs in AA were Deluca and Tunkhannock: both from district 2. Now the early favorites are for this year's title are Scranton Prep and Dom Hockenbury. Hockenbury's accomplishments are fairly well documented at this point and although he was absent from the big races this weekend, he is still a 9:17 man with a state title and another runner up finish. He's a fantastic runner and only a Junior with room to grow.

Currently pursuing Hockenbury is emerging star Jack Tidball from Tunkhannock. He's coming off a third place finish at Spiked Shoe where he defeated two time state champ Zach Brehm among others. Tidball finished only behind Molino and helped the defending champs open their season on the right foot.

Tidball was the lead runner on a state title team last season and only got better on the track. He dipped into the 9:20s in the 3200m without seeing really deep competition like some of the other times from the states elite. His resume indicates he would have given Hockenbury a good run for his money at districts and states on the track if he wasn't lost in the shuffle of the studs in AAA. Tidball added his name to a growing list of "hey I can win that AA state title" types following in the footsteps of Kachman and Hilverding from the previous weeks.

Scranton Prep finished Spike Shoe nibbling at the heels of Carlisle, a team widely considered one of the best 10 in the state, and ahead of State College. They did it with a strong punch up front, and that ever so popular experience term that teams like keep the experts from jumping on bandwagons like DT West. 7 seniors led the way for Scranton Prep with top 10 finishes by Kyle Perry and Ben Evans helping lower the score. Both guys are hungry to leave Hershey with a pair of medals.

And it's not just AA where D2 should make noise. The always dangerous Elk Lake will be in the mix for some state medals like were in the Luke Jones days. Northeast Bradford may be the early favorite according to some, but the boys from Lakeland will also be hoping to make a statement when the dust clears at Hershey. They need to sure up the rest of their top 5, but they are building behind two stars in Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie and they are a very good program historically, especially on the track where they have had some impressive 4x8s. Morgan is extremely talented and coming off a 4:21 mark and key 4x8 legs. He was a top finisher at last years state meet and will be one of the first runners fans will look to if Molino falters in his title defense.

District 2 has it's claws out, and they are looking to take hold of the small school scene this year.

Weekend 3 Thought #1: Who's #1?

Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Let's find out with my thoughts of the week for weekend 3.

It's funny how quickly the court of public opinion can swing. After PTXC we saw Colin Abert dominate, run a course record, and become the consensus pick for the AAA state title. He was easily #1 on most people's state wide ranking (including my own) and for some it wasn't even close.

But another weekend brings another result, and Abert gets pushed from our minds and replaced with the Junior from Malvern Prep, Jaxson Hoey. And heck, throw in the Junior Jake Brophy. The duo both broke 15:40 on a grueling course with rain in the forecast. According to sources the course has been extended from it's old length which would mean Hoey and Brophy had a race equivalent to Joe and Jim Rosa. Keep in mind Joe's Junior season he smashed the course record at Holmdel in sub 15, ran brilliant at Manhattan and was outkicked for the NXN title. Jim was right behind him almost every time. To mention Hoey and Brophy in the same context is special.

But we can't just throw out Abert's huge win at PTXC over another state title favorite in Dom Hockenbury. He was completely solo on his way to a 15:21 course record in hot and humid disgusting conditions. He would have embraced a little rain in the forecast.

And heck, Griffin Molino might have been the state'a second best XC runner a year ago, behind Russell. He won A states in the same time as Abert and then qualified for NXN. He ran 4:12 and 9:19 on the track and started his season with an easy looking 15:43 at Spike Shoe. Should we really not be including him in best runner in the state talks.

And of course I doubt we have seen the last of Kevin James whose 1:55/4:12/9:03 resume on the track looks pretty intimidating next to his 4th at states, NXN qualifier and 3 other state medals. This might have been the kinda wake up call he needed as these young guys went and kicked him around.

But there's more here. Like what about Andrew Marston? Sure he doesn't seem like a guy who was #1 in the state this past weekend, but just remember he still isn't in his true element at 5k, yet he crushed Sam Ritz at Belmont by 13 seconds in the 3k. Project that to Briarwood where Ritz, likely faster at 3k than 5k, ran low 16s, and there was a top group for Marston to chase you could have been looking at a 15:40s-15:30s mark. It's not too absurd to think it's possible. Marston was a top 10 guy in the state last year and since that moment he has only improved. He is trying to lead a team to a state title and that added motivation could be a big lift when the going gets tough at states. Why can't he take home a title?

Then you have guys like Casey Comber (quietly breaks 16 at a very difficult course in DeSales), Matt McGoey and Hunter Wharrey (best runners in the dangerous WPIAL), Hockenbury, Kachman, and Sam Webb (hopefully not injured after being MIA this weekend). And I'm not ready to count out Zach Brehm. Remember in track when he lulled everyone to sleep with modest times and fairly underwhelming (for him) performances and the suddenly burst onto the scene by dominating districts, winning states and running a set of blazing mile type races. And because we are throwing in Brehm we can't forget Aaron Gebhardt, the guy who might end up the best runner in D3 when the dust clears.

It's awesome how many guys have the potential to finish the year #1. It's still early in the year, but Hoey is probably #1 right now and in a few months it may sound ridiculous that I even said probably. He ran something like 1:54/4:11c/9:07 on the track and screamed, "I'm taking the next step guys!" Now in his soph to junior jump he is getting Joe Rosa comparisons: and they aren't even that crazy. Wow.

And hey, the AAA championship is going to be a dog fight. Jake Brophy had himself a huge race as well. His track season would have been even more memorable had he not been sacrificing his 3200m marks in favor of a very good 4x8 that pushed him out of his comfort zone. Brophy dropped to 1:55 as a soph, a time that we usually associate with great 800m prospects and he's a 2 miler. Remember he beat KJ indoors and came within a hair of beating Deluca. He was my pick to win the 3k indoors. He might have been able to run 9:05 last year and we just won't ever know. With that talent, Brophy is dangerous, even against Abert, a guy who has gone from being underrated, to maybe a tad overrated, back to underrated quite quickly.

I'm not going to pick my winner for the state race in September no matter what the circumstances are, but as of now I can't even guarantee anyone will be a top 5 guy. This is a very competitive year across the state in XC (think 2010 was also a great year with Gil, Endress, Campbell, Kildoo, Ayers and the North Hills monster).

I will leave you with a top 7 (that may change by the time my top 50 comes out, let's be real).

7. Comber
6. Marston
5. James
4. Molino
3. Brophy
2. Abert
1. Hoey

Thought #7: The Top 50

Well it's the final of my thoughts for the week! Glad to bring you my opinions and what not. For this last post I decided to bust out a top 50 rather than a top 101 (although I created a top 101 once again and would be happy to post it if there is demand). I figured a top 50 was appropriate because it was kinda my signature thing when I was posting on penntrack and on my original blog so I figured I should stand by my creations from 2008 and keep tradition alive.

So here we go, this is the top 50 as of now. Not state predictions by any means, these rankings are meant to answer the following question: if somebody said "quick, pick a team of runners to run a 5k from PA high school! Race is Saturday!" And then they ran away without giving me any other information what is the order that I would pick people in.

Keep in mind, as usual, I'm doing this from a train so there will be natural grammar errors and I may miss a name or two but that's what the comments are for! So please keep me informed! Ask questions and stir up conversation.

No without any further suspense let's get down to the rankings. I'll pause every 10 or so to give some thoughts. Also I will list in parentheses the amount of spots a person has moved up the rankings so you can key in on some of the guys I feel or on the rise (or guys I just overlooked before). NR indicates this runner was not ranked in the top 101 last round of rankings.

50. C. Holm, Radnor
49. S. Seel, NA
48. K. Nelson, Conestoga (NR)
47. S. Smith, Towanda (+16)
46. R. Budnik, Grove City
45. J. Connors, Wilson
44. G. Mackey, Sedwick (NR)
43. Jo. Hoey, Malven (+4)
42. J. Susalla, Plum (+55)
41. K. Lapsansky, Easton (+25)

This set of 10 features some big movers from the last round of rankings. Susalla nearly broke 16 at RWB and had a victory at Gateway to start the year. He's off to a nice start in the WPIAL. Lapsansky is another guy on the rise after a nice PTXC performance. He could move up this list even more with consistent performances like that, Paul Short should be his next big chance to showcase. Griffin Mackey is a name to remember, just a sophomore emerging as one of the tops in his class. Same goes for little Hoey obviously as Josh looks very strong in the early going for a loaded MP squad. Nelson and Murray (51st this week) are two very nice pieces for Conestoga. Still no 5k yet from them, but strong enough performances to earn mentions this week at the very least. Conestoga is a great team and so they need to be represented here.

40. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
39. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
38. D. Stroh, Altoona
37. W. Loevner, Winchester
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. A. Benka, Grove City
34. A. Milligan, State College (+37)
33. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
32. B. Arita, CRN (+11)
31. B. Faust, Altoona

No Stroh or Loevner this weekend which was a little concerning, but I'm assuming they just had other commitments rather than injuries keeping them out of the line up. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Stroh has raced this weekend, finishing third to Milligan and Faust who are both also in this section. Milligan is the big mover here after winning his first race of the year. It appears he is ready to take that next step this season, but I will need to see a few more data points before I can rank him ahead of Faust (a returning state medalist who gets the nod here for that reason). At 34, Milligan is my #22 AAA guy, which means he would be a serious medal contender if he holds this position. Arita has an invite win and is the key guy in one of the best programs in the state. Given their history, I'd be surprised if Arita isn't a medalist at states.

30. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+58)
29. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley (+9)
28. H. Sappey, DTW (NR)
27. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst
26. D. Green, James Buchanon (+30)
25. E. Graca, Fox Chapel (+40)
24. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg (+21)
23. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
22. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin (+48)
21. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+2)

Well folks we reached the "holy crap, I really underestimated that guy!" Part of the list! I mean look at those numbers! Sappey gets a big jump here, perhaps this a bit bold to jump him this high this quickly, but I like what he's been able to do so far leading the squad. DTW probably deserves more than 1 guy on the list, but I couldn't figure out who because they have such a great pack of guys. So Sappey goes high on the list to show my respect for the squad on the whole and my confidence in them looking forward. This section also includes Elias Graca, who I touched on in thought #6. He was the 2nd biggest star of the weekend (we will get to #1 later). Sean Hilverding is one of the most underrated AA guys in my eyes so I figured he deserved some love here for his big day. Everyone is talking Hockenbury and Kachman (and by everyone I mostly mean me) but Hilverding is in the mix as well. That race should be fun. Dan Green went out of state and killed it this weekend after giving Brehm a run for his money. I believe Green is also AA which means he belongs in those state title talks as well. AA may be more wide open than it originally appears. There are 5+ guys who can win right now (I feel the same way about AAA but we will get to that). Sean Weidner was about 10 spots lower on this list until news came about his win over Seiger. I chuckled a bit when I saw the comment on padontplay about it. Just remember commenters there is no reason to give a guy extra motivation. Weidner following nicely in the footsteps of Nissley and Groh and has now had 2 impressive performances instead of just the one at PTXC. That's big. One can be a fluke, but two is a trend.

20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford (+1)
18. A. Knapp, Henderson
17. N. Dahl, GFS (+2)
16. H. Wharrey, NA (+12)
15. W. Kachman, Bedford (+2)
14. C. Comber, Horsham
13. D. Perretta, Beaver
12. S. Ritz, GA (+3)
11. A. Gebhardt (+1)

This group is a fun one. Mostly because I just can't figure out where to place half of them. I'm not sure what Perreta has got and Ritz looked very good in race 1, but it was only a 3k and he is a speed guy at heart. Paul Power very quietly had a nice split at 4xXC (or at least I think he did, who can tell with that results sheet?) and he was quietly very good in the post season last year. It's time someone is loud about him! Sorry got carried away there with the exclamation point. Hunter Wharrey was big for NA. If he continues to progress like this he might give McGoey a run for his money in a race or two which is great because I think McGoey is going to be top 5-10 this year at states.

For the record Comber's interview made me a fan. I love penntrack interviews, they are a nice way to see what guys are like. Good job penntrack. Comber just seemed down to earth, very respectful of his competition and teammates and knew he still had work to do to become one of the best this year. And how about Nick Dahl's interview? The kid came across like a super genius if I'm being honest (his mom did go to Yale so that should have been the first clue) and was another motivated and focused guy. Should my personal opinion of a runner help them in the rankings? Nope. But does it help if I'm secretly rooting for someone? Yeah probably on some subconscious level.

10. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
9. A. Marston, Conestoga (+5)
8. M. McGoey, North Allegheny (+1)
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East

I think this group 5 is all of almost identical ability at this point. Marston is the guy with his stock most on the rise after his 8:51 3k at Belmont. (Small side note, everyone wants to destroy RWB for being not a real 5k, but somebody runs 8:51 on trials in September and nobody once is like, hey was that a full 3k? Just saying). Regardless of the length, Marston dominated a field that included Ritz, Dahl and Knapp. As he moves up in distance he will only get better and as things get hillier he will only get better (killed the state course). Big potential here and people are taking notice. McGoey ran blazing fast this weekend even relative to course records and things like that. I'm about seeing who you beat and how you compare to previous years in XC, I could care less about a time by itself. 15:20s means nothing to me without knowing, where, what previous years winners have run and who you beat. I may put together a list of the fastest marks on the course for comparison, but I think McGoey is high up there and apparently he looked really good. Ev Hatt could probably hook us up with some nice analysis.

5. S. Webb, Pennsbury
4. Ja. Hoey, Malvern Prep
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. K. James, O'Hara
1. C. Abert, Easton

Well we have a new #1 after Abert rolled a course record and won by 30+ seconds over a very good Dom Hockenbury. He is the #1 star of the weekend and people are all in on the bandwagon. The hype is growing around him with talk of nationals and All American surfacing. I think the other guys in this top 5 (and some outside) can all challenge him. We still haven't seen James, Molino or Webb get a chance to get after it so it's hard to say anything for sure about how much they will challenge Abert this year until we do. Hoey is clearly a stud. But he won't be at states (dang it meet of champs) so really we won't see Hoey all out until possibly December. Not sure what MPs meet schedule looks like going forward but I hope he gets a shot at these other top 5 guys because I think he could beat them all if he has a good day. Abert took the reigns and is leading the charge, but I still see a wide open race for the top spot.

And really you couldn't ask for anything better. Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.

Thought #6: 800m Runners Are People Too

Cross Country and 800m runners has always had an interesting relationship. For my 4 years of college I was making the transition back and forth between running the 4/8 on the track in the spring and running the 8k on the grass in the fall. There are certain connotations that come with being an 800 guy in a 2 milers sport. Most people either expect too much (your skills to directly translate) or too little (you will be a non factor during cross). They expect you have to go out over your head, have a lethal kick and do best on the flat super fast courses, leaving the hills for the strong, true cross runners. Some of this is true but most of it is just generalization and misconception.

If an 800m runner joins the cross country team, he sees the value in training through the fall and improving. If he's a track runner in general he's competitive as anything and wants to beat anyone he can. If he's a strong 800m runner, his strength could be valuable on a hilly course. Really cross country is very mental. If you have the mentality "I'm an 800 guy, this is just a waste of my time Til track" you won't do anything. But if you think, "look it's cross country season, I'm racing, I'm training: I have goals and I'm going to chase them" a talented 800m man will be a talented cross guy.

Elias Graca has thrust himself to the forefront of the "800m runners can run cross" debate with his huge 15:44 at RWB, finishing third and beating state medalists like Jeff VanKooten and Sean Hilverding. As Evan Hatton pointed out in an excellent stat, running sub 16 at this meet instantly propels you into top 25 at states territory. Combine that with the fact that it was a massive PR and his first real performance as the teams #1 runner and the mark looks even more impressive.

But there are other numbers working against Graca. He's one of the favorites this spring at both WPIALs and states to win the 800m. However, the state champ in the 800 has never finished in the top 25 at states the fall before they won their title. In fact, out of the last 7 800m champions to run at the state meet in XC, the average finish was 71st. Compare that stat to the mile champs (average place of 28) and 2 mile champs (average place of 7) and the odds looked stacked against an 800 specialist.

Last spring just two of the 8 state medalists in the 800m were also cross country medalists (Brehm and Cather). In the past 8 seasons there are 11 members of this group, led by Wade Endress, who did it three times. So clearly 800m guys can pull this off. It's just easier if your a 2 miler. The top 10 of the state 3200m this fall were state medalists in cross (with 2 state champs, a footlocker finalist and 4 of the first 5 to cross the like in Hershey).

The other problem Graca faces is that he isn't really a 8/16 guy like Endress, Kunzweiler, Brehm and Cather. Of the 11 members of the 800 and XC state medalist club the slowest 1600 PR of the bunch is 4:24 (Zack Montijo) and 9 of the 11 guys have run under 4:17.

Graca is a 4/8 type at heart, he's never run the 16 or mile at a major invite (at least according to penntrack). That makes him more of a Lefebure, Cho, Wiseman type guy. The highest finish out of those three at states is Cho's 197.

But Graca is still growing. He went from a 2 flat guy to a 1:53 guy last spring, dropping a ton of time every weekend with his big break through coming at states in track. This guy is only now hitting his stride. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't drop a massive 16 PR this spring, it's really the only event he hasn't had a massive PR in at this point thanks to his recent 5k.

Besides he can have a great career without a really fast mile like Andy Flynn or Brandon Krysal who were top 50 in XC and were district champ talents in the 800. Guys like Nick Smart and Andrew Stone had breakthroughs in cross the season after they began to breakthrough in track. Someone like Jim Belfatto was a 4/8 guy for his early years before he stepped up to fill a hole in the XC squad. Then he briefly became the school record holder in the 2 mile. Mallon finished 26th and 29th at states in XC so it's not like he was a chump out there.

Graca is the big name for a group that includes Zach Brehm, Dom Perretta, Alek Sauer, Dylan Eddinger, Andrew Koryak, Andy Stewart and more who are trying to break through that "track guy" stigma with a big XC season. They will model their year after guys like Magaha (district title, 6th place), Willig (9th, 2nd at districts), and Endress (2nd at states, district titles, 3 state medals) who proved the state's best 800m men of all time can also be XC stars.

Brehm has already gotten his medal, now he is chasing state and district gold. Perretta too holds two state titles, but there are still many people that doubt his XC ability. Sauer was sub 16 last year, but needs to prove himself on Hershey's hills if Pennsbury is going to be back in the top 10 at states. Koryak had a strong first race at RWB and will look to build on that towards a top 10 state finish in A. Eddinger and Stewart have never made a state championship in cross, but are coming off thrilling ends to their track seasons. Both guys are in excellent training programs to develop their talents.

All of these guys have something to prove this year. And it was Elias Graca who made the first big statement of the season, emphatically saying, "Hey, it's cross country season and I'm gonna kill it just like I did in track."

As the Artic Monekys album title says, "Whatever You Think I Am, I'm Not".