Thought #5: The Top 50

Alright folks it's time for a little top 50 action. I included the latest round of dual meets in my thinking (glad to see this up on penntrack now) although dual meets have a decent amount lower pull than the invites.

Just like last week I made a top 101 but will only post the top 50 (unless someone specifically wants to see all 101). I will include how much up the list a person has jumped for comparison sake. Remember, since I ranked 101 guys last week, a NR indicates the person was not even in my top 101 last week and is now in the top 50. So quite a nice jump in other words.

As usual extra bits of info are nice to know an your opinion always matters.

50. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
49. S. Slavin, Pleasant Valley (NR)
48. J. Kirshenbaum, Methacton (NR)
47. S. Seel, NA
46. K. Lapansky, Easton
45. R. Barton, DT West (+33)
44. M. Kravitz, North Pocono (+27)
43. R. Fortna, CB West (+22)
42. I. Baun, Mt. Lebanon (+18)
41. R. James, O'Hara (NR)

As usual there is a big chunk of movement down around the bottom of the top 50. Ryan James had a big race, this was a big step for O'Hara who have a nice contingent of James boys running well. 3 of their top 5 at season's end may have the last name James. If Ryan makes the jump this year, O'Hara has a streak of multiple state medalists that it's looking to keep in tact and I think they certainly can do it. I think I was a little low on the WPIAL guys in general last week so adding a little bit of spice to line up this week, jumping Baun and others you will see later. Kravitz had a dominating performance and is another guy who I see as a potential state medalist out of district 2. They usually have solid contenders like Jacob Fetterman who sneak up for medals. Barton joins the top 50 for West, continuing to jump the rankings. He beat all the Stoga guys not named Marston last week despite being in the sophomore race. If he develops into a strong 2, DT becomes a lot scarier. Nice win for Kirshenbaum following up a solid run at Viking. CB West is a legit team, they are state qualifying contenders without a doubt.

40. E. Linderman, Canon-Mac (+19)
39. A. Benka, Grove City
38. G. Mackey, Selwick (+6)
37. R. Tung, NP (+18)
36. J. Susalla, Plum (+6)
35. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
34. B. Faust, Altoona
33. B. Arita, CRN
32. Z. Skolnevich, QV
31. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+23)

More WPIAL in this section, jumps for these guys for consistent races and just overall, I felt I was understating these guys last week. Tung was one of the most impressive performances of the weekend that just flew under the radar. If he can go out and beat some big PA names that will cement his reputation as a medalist contender. I'm all aboard the Griffin Mackey train, I think the kid is going to be really good. He's just scratching the surface of what he can become. Heinauer is looking like a stud and North Hills has a good history of banging out stars. Big first win for him of the season. Arita looks great early as well, especially considering you know the North guys are still training at a high level. If he progress that way someone like James Zingarini used to over the last few weeks of the season, he's going to be top 20 at states in AAA at least.

30. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
29. H. Sappey, DT West
28. J. Tidball, Tunkhannock (+24)
27. E. Graca, Fox Chapel
26. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg
25. Jo. Hoey, Malvern Prep (+18)
24. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin
23. J. VanKooten, Pitts CC
22. A. Knapp, Henderson
21. D. Green, James Buchanon (+5)

Don't get it twisted, a +5 when you are already this high is a big deal and Daniel Green looks great in the early going. Another big run, winning at Big Spring and continuing to be a AA force. Throw him in the title conversation in that division. Sappey proved he belongs in this tier of guys, great consistency out of him. Knapp is looking solid, and once he gets to post season 5ks instead of 2 miles his true XC wheels we come out. The biggest movers out of this bunch are Jack Tidball and Josh Hoey. Hoey moving farther up the list than any freshman while I've been doing his list. Huge statement for the rookie on a tough Belmont Course. I can only see him continuing to improve as the year goes on and that makes Malvern's top 3 incredibly dangerous. With Wills (a low 4:20s miler who I think will continue to improve in XC) I expect this team to develop a nice group behind them. It's still just September and they are aiming to beak at the end of November, that is ages of time. As for Tidball, he is another guy who threw his name in the AA title conversation. He beat Brehm and a slew of other solid runners and maybe Brehm wasn't going all out or whatever but a win is a win and to be the second PA guy behind only Griffin Molino is a statement race. I'm on the Tidball bandwagon for sure.

20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford
18. N. Dahl, GFS
17. D. Perretta, Beaver
16. W. Kachman, Bedford
15. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
14. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+7)
13. H. Wharrey, NA (+3)
12. A. Gebhardt, New Oxford
11. S. Ritz, GA (+1)

Alright I admit it, I'm drinking the Malvern Prep Kool Aid right now. This may be a spot or two high for McDevitt, but I placed up here out of respect for his great performance at one of the biggest meets of the week for the second straight week. Sam Ritz is quietly having a great season. He looks excellent on the Belmont Hills and could play major spoiler on a fast course like Lehigh. At Paul Short he could turn heads big time with a tough run against Albert and co. Wharrey seems like the next big thing. I can't pull the trigger for any higher right now, just because at this point in the list the talent is off the charts, but Wharrey has been running like a man this year. I'm still of the opinion he has a very realistic shot at being the top guy on NA by season's end, crazy considering how big a fan I am of his teammate Matt McGoey. George Bailey continues to excel out of Bedford Falls, just want to see him matched up against some big names. Merry Christmas you old building and loan.

For the record these It's a Wonderful Life references may never stop, I love that movie. So go see it now if you want to be in the loop.

7d. S. Webb, Pennsbury
7c. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
7b. M. McGoey, NA
7a. C. Comber, Horsham (+7)

Comber with a huge jump this week, perhaps too huge, but he obliterated the times of future state champs Hibbs and Quinn. He is running great despite very little top level competition and Horsham knows how to coach them up. But really I stop to comment here because I see all 4 of these guys as nearly identical in ability. Webb won't sit at 10 for long but the other guys have been racing and killing it so they deserved some respect. But like I said literally, identical to me. Really difficult to put them in any sort of order.

6. A. Marston, Conestoga (+3)
5. K. James, O'Hara
4. J. Brophy, CB East (+2)
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. C. Abert, Easton
1. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep (+3)

I documented a lot of this reasoning in Thought #1, but basically Abert had a great race but Hoey may have had an All Time race. Even before all the course measuring stuff, Hoey's time looked great, with it, that makes him look even better. If you put him anywhere near Rosa level he is up with the best the state has ever see . But we can't forget about Abert. He crushed another top 10 guy in brutal heat and conditions. He's looking like a Footlocker Finalist already. We just can't overreact to either guys performance. I thought Hoey would be better in the preseason, considering his track marks, and he backed it up here. But Abert is one of the most established XC guys in the state. If they race at Paul Short (which I believe they are supposed to) it will be a fantastic race. If Abert can hang with Hoey at Paul Short, a course where Hoey has the advantage, that will be a big statement.

Marston makes a big jump this week, out of tier 1.5 and into tier 1. It might be a bit premature with no real 5k experience, but the guy just looks driven and hungry. I almost put him ahead of KJ which is saying something.

I wanted to go Brophy at 3 honestly but decided I should let the state champ and NXN qualifier who has soloed 4:12 and is undefeated this season keep his top 3 spot. Brophy has been very good this year after a very compelling track season where his stat did not get to fully shine because he wasn't in any of those fast 2 miles that others were. Molino is a stud, but Brophy is so good it's a conversation.

Juniors have won 2 out of the last 3 state titles in AAA, and this year might make it 3 out of 4 if Brophy pulls it out. The power of age is shrinking, the freshman and sophomores are climbing this list like never before and the Juniors are becoming serious title threats across the board.

Or at least ... That's what I think. And these ... These are my thoughts.