Thought #4: North Allegheny and History (Plus a Bonus Thought)

North Allegheny might be the most consistently great team of all the squads in the state. But somehow they are also the most unpredictable. How does that make any sense you might ask? Well allow me to try my best to explain.

NA has won the WPIAL every year for the past decade or so, an unparalleled dominance for any of the major districts. And they have followed up those performances by finishing as the top district 7 team at states every year I have been following cross country (2006 and on). They have finished in the top 5 teams every year since 2007, with a state title in 2010 (the only non D1 title) runner up finishes in 09 and 13 and third place finishes in 07, 08 and 11. That's unheard of consistency in the ultra competitive AAA.

But here's what blows my mind about NA, they are always changing their identity. Losing big names doesn't phase them. All signs indicating they are not going to shine are usually wrong. But the reverse has been true as well. Some of the teams with the most hype around them fell short of their ultimate goals.

Let me explain. In 2007, the Coatesville super team was gone (or at least we all thought so) and the title was up for grabs. NA was the early season favorite, they won prestates, but that title was over taken by NP at the Carlisle invite (NA struggled hard to bounce back from their efforts at the state course. One of many examples that running the state course back to back is a disadvantage). After locking up another WPIAL title, NA was a clear favorite for 2nd at states. But alas, the NA boys couldn't get their 3-5 to come up big enough and they were stunned by Coatesville and finished 3rd. What many thought would be NA's best team of the decade came up short, and graduated their only two top 50 finishers from states who were 9th and 12th. So they were finished right? North Penn, Coatesville, Upper Dublin and Carlisle all returned a ton more and got the preseason hype.

But then NA stunned everyone by coming out the gate fast, led by a guy who ran on their JV for three years, a 5th year senior and a sophomore taking a big jump NA dominated all the big name teams at Carlisle including the defending champs in NP and one of the preseason favorites in Upper Dublin.

(NA didn't run prestates this year, worked out pretty well. You know who did? My squad of UD. I ran 20 minutes in the 5k and bombed in the JV race a week after running 18:10 at Hershey. The rest of our top guys bombed too including future mile state champ Mike Palmisano. My coach vowed never to go back to that prestates meet if we were going to be running Carlisle fast. You know, my coach the state record holder in the mile, but yeah the D3 guys are fine running that course right before states. Doesn't effect them at all.)

That NA team was really good and although they lost their front running steam, they completely changed their identity into a great pack with a tight spread. That team was so good they not only made nationals, they took 12th there.

But you know what happened at states that season? They were upset. They were bested by North Penn again and stunned by a better pack in LaSalle by 1 point for 2nd. Even this national caliber squad couldn't get on the medal stand. It was over for NA, they were chokers, they were history. They lost 3 of their top 5 and were again facing an up hill climb to just win districts.

And guess what happened? They proved everybody wrong again. They beat a very good Baldwin team at districts, turned Gil into a true blue front runner and got 2nd at states, flipping the script on a very good LaSalle team. The choking stigma was gone, this team was legit.

But beyond Gil, they didn't return too much. However, they added Logan Steiner to the squad, a valuable pick up and with Gil as the favorite for the state title, things were looking good.

Then Gil got hurt and Baldwin got good. Baldwin had a very strong pack of guys led by returning state medalist Bobby Bishop and bested a Gil-less NA team at leagues. The streak looked like it was over.

But A hobbled Gil made his way back to the line, they beat Baldwin and then Gil stunned the state by taking two golds the next weekend. NA finally got their state title.

And now we come to NA's next chance to get that state. This group of guys leading this squad now: McGoey, Wharrey and Seel, first made their debut in 2011, the year after NA won states.

They return very few guys and meanwhile Mt Lebanon had developed into state title favorites. Lebo had their way with NA all season. They crushed them at Tri States. I remember thinking there was no way the streak wouldn't end.

But what do you know NA proved me wrong again. Fate intervened with a horrible storm and NA rode the efforts of Luoco and Seel and other youngsters behind Steiner and stunned Lebo. They followed it up by beating them again at states, although their youth cost them a shot at the title.

The last two seasons the tight NA pack of their national qualifying year was back. They got hype, they performed big in some marquee races, they won more WPIAL titles and they grabbed silvers last year. But the road at states has been bumpy. In 2012 they were surprised by a fiesty top 3 and CRN. In 2013, despite a pack of 5 guys in the top 50 and 3 in the top 30, O'Hara came within a few seconds of stealing their medals.

But now in 2014 there is no more youth to throw around. Their young studs are now old stars. It has to be this year, just like in 2010 when Gil was about to graduate, it felt like it had to be that year.

And of course in classic NA fashion, they are reshaping their image once again. Now they resemble the CRN and O'Hara teams they battled with at states the last two years. They have the big time top 3 and two capable 4-5 men. It is ironic now that they have flipped the script yet again.

And don't get it twisted. This is a big 3. McGoey was a stud all last year on the track, dropping to 9:12 in the 3200m. Wharrey was a near medalist last year in his first serious varsity year. And he is even better this year. He is a perfect partner for McGoey and suddenly a top 10 guy in the state who will give McGoey all he can handle at states and districts. He may be their #1 at season's end.

Then there is Seel. He lost Love, a well documented travesty, but he still has been strong this year. Plus he is clutch at states. He is one of just 7 guys still in high school to finish in the top 50 in the state each of the last two years. The other 6? Abert, James, Brophy, Brehm, Gebhardt, and Sam Webb. Wow, that's fine company.

Don't get it twisted, NA is the favorite at states this year. Although a transfer got them their state title in 2010, I don't expect a transfer to take away their 2014 title.

Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.

(Bonus Thought: listening to that NA rise to power story did anyone else see a super strong resemblance to Ohara? Think about it ... Two years of heartbreak, the second year they made it to nationals and proved just how good they were ... Then, when they lose 3 of their top 5 and everyone counts them out and calls them chokers, they stay surprisingly relevant behind the top 5 finish of their Junior leader. The next year that Junior is a Senior, he just ran 9:03 in the spring and he is hungry after a couple close misses in his state time pursuits. He made nationals the previous year for the first time as an individual after a team stint and now is looking to lead a group of relative unknowns to a state title during his Senior year and last chance. C'mon? You can't tell me you don't see it. All that's missing is the transfer (nick smart graduates a year too early to qualify, that would have just made it spooky). Keep an eye on this elaborate metaphor.)