Peer Pressure Post: Top Ten Teams

So with Penntrack and Forrest both putting out their own top 10 team rankings recently, I guess it's time to throw up my own. But since we have already seen this kind of post before I'll try to put a little spin on it.

Today I will be comparing my top 10 teams to past teams in recent state history, just to kind of throw out some sense of the potential for these teams looking ahead. The comparisons are far from perfect and just for fun so don't take them too seriously. And if you are looking for a quick way to check out my comparisons, runhigh has all the state results going back to around 2002 for easy access and that's what is usually use. Runhigh results are my favorite set up, I think they are basically perfect in their set up so when I host a meet of champs in 2 years I will be using runhigh.

I apologize in advance if some readers are not familiar with my small references here. I encourage you to look back and compare your teams to the ones I compare them to for yourself and give me some feedback. I'm happy to answer questions and such. I think it might be helpful to inject some history into this (they say history repeats itself after all). However, if this post is really annoying to read because of the references, just comment and say etrain this method sucks and I'll change up my approach.

Also small shout to Forrest for getting banned this week. As someone who has been banned since 2011, I can say it's not too bad. I understand why they had to ban you, competition advertising on their site? They can't really let that happen. However, stealing ideas and denying a paying customer access? Especially when Forrest has offered to write for penntrack for free anyway. But hey I guess it's a compliment that they see you as a threat. So congrats, hopefully this situation gets resolved.

So here is my top 10 in reverse order.

10. Carlisle
Comparable past equivalents: 2013 Conestoga, Ceiling: 2012 LaSalle

Carlisle makes the list here with a chance to really prove themselves this weekend at their home meet. You could argue for them higher (as they are on other rankings I've seen) but you could also argue they shouldn't even be on the list (No Pennsbury, CRN or Henderson on my list today). Carlisle is one of the many teams that fits the "strong top three now let's see what that 4-5 punch becomes". That's not a bad recipe for success (the dream situation is you end up state champs like North Penn in 2011), by there are so many teams that fit this build and I'm not sure Carlisle's quite at their caliber.

Their team as constructed reminds me a lot of last year's Conestoga team, ironically the team that they edged on tie break. I see Brehm as a top 10 guy again (Marston), DeAngelo as a borderline medalist (Sjoreen) and Wisner as a potential sneaking into the top 50 guy (Cooper). But there is also potential for this team to hit on all cylinders at states and DeAngelo can end up in the medals. Then they could easily end up in a similar boat to 2012 LaSalle. I'm real high on Brehm this year (I haven't ruled out the chance that he leaves Hershey with the Gold) and DeAngelo is rapidly climbing my big board and should be able to jump into the top 50 with a good race at their home meet. Wisner and the 4-5 punch will need to take the next step to guarantee these guys a top 10 mark in the future.

The good news is, historically the Carlisle boys run well on their home course (a captain obvious type sentence) and so this weekend has the potential to be a big statement race.

9. CB West
Past equivalent: 2012 Great Valley, Ceiling 2012 NA

So CB West is looking like a real nice squad in the early going. Keep in mind CB East was 5th at prestates, and West has handled them 2/3 times this season. Plus they tied LaSalle at Belmont in an impressive race. They have developed a nice little pack behind front runner Rock Fortna which kind of reminds me of the nice pack of 2012 Great Valley who climbed all the way to 6th at states despite not having a state medalist (Matt Willig just missed that season).

They have a nice young core, with Fortna, Brian Mass, Declan McDonald and Ian Davies all listed as underclassmen at Belmont (I say listed because those can be wrong at times and I want to cover my butt and Davies has also been listed as a senior). They round out their varsity with guys like Brian Iatarola and Andrew Baker (also listed as underclassmen).

There is potential that this pack clicks behind a front runner (Fortna v Zemet) and the young guys behind him put on a solid pack performance at states and this team could end up like 2012 NA. But really when the meets end, it's hard to think we won't be salivating over this team's future potential. Watch out DT West.

But the downside to CB West as been touched on is that they are dealing with the brutal District One. If they have an off day on the big stage at Lehigh they end up comparing to NA in just one way. Their state score will be listed as N/A.

8. Easton
Past Equivalents: 2010 Altoona, 2008 Perk Valley, Dream Equivalent: 2010 NA

Yes I just compared this year's Easton squad to the 2010 state champs. While I don't think Easton will be in the title hunt this year (heck they are in a dog fight just to get out of D11 in one piece) I do think this is district 11's best shot at a top 5 team at the state meet. They have the ultimate front runner in Colin Abert who is probably giving you 1 point in team scoring. Then you have Keven Lapsansky, 5th at PTXC and in the middle of a breakout season.

Then after those 2, they matched up very nicely with teams like CV and LD through 5 guys at PTXC and were 2nd to Severena Park. Throw them in that Hershey meet, they probably aren't far away from Lebo or NA and those are really good teams.

So the dream position is Lapsansky breaks out and grabs state hardware (Like Replogle's 25 in 2010 for Altoona) and Abert gets that out front low stick. Then the rest of the pack, completely untested on the state course, has to pull through for solid performances to round out the top 5. Perk Valley rode that recipe to 4th in 2008.

But Easton is going to have a tough time replicating any of the above teams. For starters, their district is actually looking quite formidable and their squad's excellent front running is build more for a state meet then a district 11 meet where Abert's win won't be nearly as valuable. Plus Easton is quite untested at the state course, with a decent chunk of youth. They might be more like 2009 North Penn when all is said and done.

But for now, I think most people are overlooking the potential of this squad, so they get slotted here at 8.

7. LaSalle
Past Equivalents: 2009 LaSalle

The 2009 LaSalle squad had an absurd 15 second spread and got 3rd at states. They were a really well coached team that could have potential had 7 guys within 25 seconds of each other at states if things broke right.

This LaSalle team has that kind of pack. Look no farther than the PCL meet where they took the top 7 spots at Belmont with times ranging from 16:58 (Sean Princivelle) to 17:29 (Brendan Price). That's a 31 second 1-7 spread with everybody under 17:30 at Belmont. In a glorified workout where they took the top 7 spots! They have so many different guys who can step up and contribute including Patrick Grant and Ryan Mitchell who were their #1s at earlier meets.

Plus now that the PCL has 2 teams they go from sad story to virtual lock for the state meet (no offense meant to a solid St. Joe's squad). So unlike the other squads around them, they should feel confident.

Here's the downside to this squad: somebody needs to drag that pack up towards the front. Yes Ryan Mitchell was a strong 11th at Belmont, but that means O'Hara and Malvern put 3 guys ahead of him. Plus CB West actually outpaced them at the meet with a better front runner. That can't happen if this team is going to be a top 5 team at states.

They get ranked here because I think they are bette than that Belmont race and they were missing a key finisher in their top 7 that day. Carlisle this weekend will give them a chance to prove themselves against some of the other top 12-15 teams in the state.

6. DT West
Comparative teams: 2011 Hederson, 2010 North Penn

The DT West boys are tricky to place right now. I am actually a big fan of this team and they barely got edged by Lebo in my rankings this weekend after the Foundation performance. West is young, we all know that, but young teams can still be great. 2011 Henderson and 2010 North Penn both were top 2 teams in district one and 2011 Henderson was 5th at states.

Plus it's probably worth noting that both of the squads I compared this team to won states the next year.

But for right now DT West just needs to show consistentcy. They have developed a nice front runner in Henry Sappey and have strong pieces behind him with Bullock and the Bartons among others. Their top 5 is at least comparable to Conestoga's, even if I don't think they are quite a good. And I think Conestoga has the best top 5 in the state.

The potential or DT West is outrageous at this point, I really can't project where they will finish this year with confidence. But I do know that young teams struggle at the state meet. 2012 Henderson was young, but they had 2011 to help them grow up quick. I see DT West as a top 2 team at districts, but not finishing that way at states.

I don't know if they are at Carlisle or Kiwanis this weekend, but it will be nice to see them compete over 5k again like Abington.

5. Mt Lebo
Historic Comparison: Baldwin 2009-2010

Lebo reminds me a lot of those Baldwin teams. They have a nice pack but a clear front runner with potential (Ian Baun as compared to Bobby Bishop). Baldwin usually did their best running at Coopers and struggled a bit a states. Lebo is quite the opposite, they have had a slew of quality races at Hershey.

This is a very good program that flies a bit under the radar in NA's shadow. They've got 5 guys too, that's something few teams can boast. Their 5 at prestates, Matt Stone I think has already won an invitational this year. That's crazy.

Harris has been consistently solid and Gunz rounds out the strong top 3. Their 4-5 can step into a top 3 role if necessary and that's a huge lift on the difficult state course. They are a perfect foil for NA's front running machine.

They need to keep their pack up near the medals/top 50 and out of the craziness that is places 60-120 at states and they will be in good shape to compete for a top 3 spot at states if they continue to develop like they have so far early this season.

I still see NA as the better team, but Lebo is making noise behind them, and the Tigers better pay attention.

4. North Allegheny
Comparative Teams: 2013 O'Hara, 2006 Henderson

This top 3 has the potential to be special. McGoey and Wharrey are real good and Seel is having a great season despite the fact that the name Seamus Love is getting dropped so much I thought it was February 14th. Their 4-5 at the moment are a little shaky, but like the teams I compared them too, North Allegheny is a top tier program who can develop guys into workable 4-5s.

Worth noting, check out the JV results at Foundation. Lots of NA jerseys at the front (black and yellow, black and yellow). I'm not counting them out of getting a state title and validating the top 3 theory.

That being said, you need to have that top 3 be the clear cut best top 3. That means they need to beat out Ohara out front at season's end.

3. O'Hara
Comparable Teams: 2007-2008 North Penn
O'Hara reminds me a decent chunk of these North Penn teams. They have a really nice top 3 with a stud developing into a surprising possibly top 15 guy at states in Ryan James behind Kev. Then Rob Morro has become one of the better #3 guys in the state giving them that potent top 3 that can do so much damage.

They are showing nice improvement week to week and clearly have just one goal: to win states. They have been abandoning the PCL league meets and training with an eye towards gold in Hershey. They have a killer low stick and a ton of motivation from past years hardships.

Plus they have the now well documented rises of Drew Pastore and Pat James who could fill the important Tim Stauring role for these guys as a top 50 4th man. But Nolen and Donovan are solid too and could end up really coming on strong at seasons end like so many former teammates before them have (I.e. Pastore and James last year).

I'm still not completely sold on their top 3. I know that's harsh because they have two straight prime time 2nd places, but Seel, McGoey and Wharrey have proven it on the big stage before, each finishing in the top 50 last year.

I've got them ahead of NA, but it's close. And behind Conestoga. But it's close.

Interesting side note, both these squads I feel like are better out front versions of 2011 North Penn. And 2011 North Penn won a title. The secret, NP had a sneaky good 4-5 day that day.

Also, out of all O'Haras team wouldn't it be ironic if this squad one the title? I think so at least, but they definitely don't.

2. Conestoga
Comparative Teams: 2009 Henderson, 2009 GFS, Downside: 2009 NA

High praise for this Conestoga team comparing them to a state champ and a national qualifier. Plus I ranked them ahead of two of the best three programs of the last half decade. Yes the Conestoga boys are headed into an interesting piece of history. They are looking to have their first breakthrough and grab what would be an historic state title.

Conestoga makes this upcoming state meet super intriguing. Teams like Stoga, Lebo, LaSalle, DT West and CB West will throw their packs up against the super top 3s of Carlisle, Easton, O'Hara and NA.

It's the ultimate test of my preseason top 3 theory and I couldn't have asked for a better science experiment.

But let's not get it twisted, Stoga isn't some spread monster with no front runner, they have Marston out front, a real star who was top 10 last year and is better this year. The guy currently running around 4-5 on their team was top 50 last year at states in James Fenmore Cooper. Then they add Murray, Nelson and Cruikshank to the mix and you got 5 guys who can all be top 50 in the state. That puts you right in line with Henderson 09 (Kellar out front, slew of top 50 guys with no additional medalists behind). The downside of this team is their 2-5 isn't quite as good as I think and they end up in the 40s-70s rather than 20s-50s or something like that. That's still top 2-4 teams in the state I gotta imagine.

They still don't have a 5k under their belt and really haven't tested themselves so far this season. Probably smart to lay low and peak late. But leaves some question marks in the short term about just how good that 2-5 is.

1. Malven Prep
Team comparison: 2007 GFS, Dream Ceiling: 2011-2012 Ohara

Hoey is a real stud at the top of the this squad and that front runner gives then real power. You are going to have a big spread when your top guy is beating KJ by 20 seconds. Even if your 5th man is solid.

The Malvern Prep top 3 is really strong. Josh Hoey is better than I expected and McDevitt has taken a big step. That top 3 took care of O'Hara at Belmont on their home course and then remember what that O'hara top three did at prestates.

I think Wills is going to come on, as I've discussed before. He could be a Gus McKenzie type piece at the 4 and serviceable 5 behind gets you into the nationals hunt like GFS was in 2007. GFS probably could have made nats but one of their big three, Ortiz, had an off day. There will be lots of pressure on the young Josh Hoey to deliver on the big stage.

We really won't ever know how good this team is. Even at regionals, they will likely be the only team on it's first peak, everyone else havig peaked at states.

The moral of the story as always, we need a meet of champs.

They could end up like one of the Ohara teams from years past if their top 3 continues to stay strong all year and a 4 (and 5 especially in the case of 2012 OH) come on at seasons end. It's not likely (those OH teams were both really good and it would be unfair to compare any team to them this year in my opinion) but it's a dream goal for MP because their top 3 is good enough and see some potential in their 4-5.

If a team is making it to nats this year, I think it's Malvern. They've got the pieces to do it in the early going, but it's a long road Til November and December.

Let the games continue.