Thought #3: Making Sense of an Odd Meet Set Up

So serious question right now: what is the deal with these meets where they run every race by class? Are they just trying to make me upset?

I have a tough time just combining races and saying yeah those results mean the same thing. Like who knows if Smucker would have run faster with more competition or if he benefited from being in a smaller race where he gained confidence being at the front? Same goes for Sappey of DT West.

Now I'm thinking mainly of the Cherokee meet when I say this, but North Penn, Governor Mifflin and Rustin went to another meet with the same set up and made me just as confused with guys like Carmody putting on big races but dodging someone like Ryan Tung, a legit state medalist candidate and sub 16 man. I would have liked to see how they stack up head to head to see where Carmody is as a state qualifier candidate. Plus Rustin and NP are both competing against each other in the top 10 of the district based on a quick analysis of early results, it would be nice to have a good idea of what each squad has. The scores show NP dominating, but that is slightly skewed because A) they are a huge school and B) their freshman dominated relative to Rustin. And really I'm not sure how many freshman will make an impact at districts (although NP has some nice pieces to work with to develop a pack by season's end). Rustin with Carmody and Hontz as well as Coates and Vogt look like they have a nice pack so far, but I would have liked to see what it looked like all together. NP will be decent this year, especially with a front runner like Tung who looked quite strong this weekend in an under the radar performance.

Neither team is in state qualifying team right now in my eyes, but top 10 in D1 is a noble goal and an impressive achievement.

The big dogs were in NJ for Cherokee with Conestoga again running a dang 2 mile race and again not running full squad. Plus they had their dudes spread out in different races.

If you think that's tricky DT West had the same fate with their boys spread across 4 races with legitimate varsity contenders in each one.

Plus you got Henderson and a Sam Webb-less Pennsbury, a couple teams vying for states, with their guys spread across the races. Did I mention it also was just a 2 mile?

Seriously, I don't see the appeal of this meet. Unless I guess your DT West and you can win the meet despite not having the best traditional team score.

It was a nice overall showing for PA teams with Conestoga and DT West both having strong days. Stoga did not have one of their top 5 guys in Killian Nelson but still managed to beat DTW in the combined scoring by roughly 50 points. Marston is a stud, he looks great right now, just needs to showcase that talent on a dang 5k. Behind him the top 5 is developing: and it's a good one. Murray, Nelson, Cruikshank and Cooper are the next 4 and Cooper was a top 50 guy in the state last year. If they get their top 5 in the top 50, it's hard for me to imagine them slipping past 2nd and winning is very possible.

I'm still convinced in this diluted AAA, you probably need two state medalists to get you a title in addition to a nice pack. It's hard to say or sure because we saw three of the states best teams ever the last two years in addition to some other killer teams, but that's my hunch at this point. NA has a better top 3 then Stoga right now and at states that top 3 becomes even more valuable. Stoga needs to get someone to close the gap on the developing Wharrey and 3-4 guys in front of Seel. They essentially need to be last year's NA team, with a better front runner. That gets them right there for the title.

As for DT West, as Sappey continues to assert himself, their potential grows a bit. I will say this, people are so high on their 1-7 depth and that's nice and all but any way you slice it only 5 guys score. So I don't really care if DT West can put 7 in front of somebody's 4 or 5, if that other squad's top 3 blows you out of the water at states there is no beating them.

At states, basically everyone is at least good which means those 51-150 spots are practically random. Run that race 100x and you get 100 different combinations. So things are too unpredictable for 4-5 for most teams and things almost become interchangeable. That's why your top 3 or so guys become so crucial. In my eyes it's about getting guys in the top 50 at states. That's the key.

But here's the thing, I still like this DT West team a lot and see them as a potential sleeper at seasons end and it's because of their depth.

But wait I just said it didn't matter didn't I? What the heck train?

Well here's the thing, it matters in a different way. They have young depth. That means they still have so much potential for 5 guys to develop into studs. And I see lots of guys with potential beyond Sappey like the Barton and Oneill and Bullock to name a few. Those guys have to continue to tighten the spread on Sappey, then this team becomes scary. If you get a 30 second spread over 5k (they were about 30 second over 2 miles this weekend) with your top dude in the 20s at states (about where I currently project Sappey) your team looks a lot like ... 2013 NA! Which means DT West has the potential to be a top 2 team in the state. But they have to continue to improve, tighten the pack and Sappey has to set the tone out front by getting into the medals.

Behind these two teams we saw interesting performances from Henderson and Pennsbury. Henderson has been discussed a fairly decent amount already and the bottom line with them is I will wait to judge what they have as long as possible. Right now Knapp is heading to states by himself, but a lot can change. Nice race for Smucker though.

I was very encouraged by Pennsbury's showing. Assuming they are going to get a healthy Webb back, we are looking at a roughly 110 point swing in the merged standings. That wouldn't be enough to get DTW, but it would put them in their league and way clear of Henderson. Sauer was solid as the new leader in Webb's absence and behind him Bortman and Wick stepped up big time. They also had a few youngsters in the other races like Sauer's brother that looked like they could potentially fill the gap the team has at #5.

Pennsbury will need to get Webb back healthy, but assuming he is there, they have 4 guys who look strong. This was Pennsbury's first competitive race as well, meaning they should adjust to racing and continue to improve. I still Sauer as a force, especially at Districts on a fast course so that 1-2 punch is sick. With the current all around depth in D1, making states is going to be really hard and all 5 guys will matter at districts, unlike states, where a there is more of a range of talent and just more points overall available. But Pennsbury is off to a nice start in their quest to get back to states.