Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Let's find out with my thoughts of the week for weekend 3.
It's funny how quickly the court of public opinion can swing. After PTXC we saw Colin Abert dominate, run a course record, and become the consensus pick for the AAA state title. He was easily #1 on most people's state wide ranking (including my own) and for some it wasn't even close.
But another weekend brings another result, and Abert gets pushed from our minds and replaced with the Junior from Malvern Prep, Jaxson Hoey. And heck, throw in the Junior Jake Brophy. The duo both broke 15:40 on a grueling course with rain in the forecast. According to sources the course has been extended from it's old length which would mean Hoey and Brophy had a race equivalent to Joe and Jim Rosa. Keep in mind Joe's Junior season he smashed the course record at Holmdel in sub 15, ran brilliant at Manhattan and was outkicked for the NXN title. Jim was right behind him almost every time. To mention Hoey and Brophy in the same context is special.
But we can't just throw out Abert's huge win at PTXC over another state title favorite in Dom Hockenbury. He was completely solo on his way to a 15:21 course record in hot and humid disgusting conditions. He would have embraced a little rain in the forecast.
And heck, Griffin Molino might have been the state'a second best XC runner a year ago, behind Russell. He won A states in the same time as Abert and then qualified for NXN. He ran 4:12 and 9:19 on the track and started his season with an easy looking 15:43 at Spike Shoe. Should we really not be including him in best runner in the state talks.
And of course I doubt we have seen the last of Kevin James whose 1:55/4:12/9:03 resume on the track looks pretty intimidating next to his 4th at states, NXN qualifier and 3 other state medals. This might have been the kinda wake up call he needed as these young guys went and kicked him around.
But there's more here. Like what about Andrew Marston? Sure he doesn't seem like a guy who was #1 in the state this past weekend, but just remember he still isn't in his true element at 5k, yet he crushed Sam Ritz at Belmont by 13 seconds in the 3k. Project that to Briarwood where Ritz, likely faster at 3k than 5k, ran low 16s, and there was a top group for Marston to chase you could have been looking at a 15:40s-15:30s mark. It's not too absurd to think it's possible. Marston was a top 10 guy in the state last year and since that moment he has only improved. He is trying to lead a team to a state title and that added motivation could be a big lift when the going gets tough at states. Why can't he take home a title?
Then you have guys like Casey Comber (quietly breaks 16 at a very difficult course in DeSales), Matt McGoey and Hunter Wharrey (best runners in the dangerous WPIAL), Hockenbury, Kachman, and Sam Webb (hopefully not injured after being MIA this weekend). And I'm not ready to count out Zach Brehm. Remember in track when he lulled everyone to sleep with modest times and fairly underwhelming (for him) performances and the suddenly burst onto the scene by dominating districts, winning states and running a set of blazing mile type races. And because we are throwing in Brehm we can't forget Aaron Gebhardt, the guy who might end up the best runner in D3 when the dust clears.
It's awesome how many guys have the potential to finish the year #1. It's still early in the year, but Hoey is probably #1 right now and in a few months it may sound ridiculous that I even said probably. He ran something like 1:54/4:11c/9:07 on the track and screamed, "I'm taking the next step guys!" Now in his soph to junior jump he is getting Joe Rosa comparisons: and they aren't even that crazy. Wow.
And hey, the AAA championship is going to be a dog fight. Jake Brophy had himself a huge race as well. His track season would have been even more memorable had he not been sacrificing his 3200m marks in favor of a very good 4x8 that pushed him out of his comfort zone. Brophy dropped to 1:55 as a soph, a time that we usually associate with great 800m prospects and he's a 2 miler. Remember he beat KJ indoors and came within a hair of beating Deluca. He was my pick to win the 3k indoors. He might have been able to run 9:05 last year and we just won't ever know. With that talent, Brophy is dangerous, even against Abert, a guy who has gone from being underrated, to maybe a tad overrated, back to underrated quite quickly.
I'm not going to pick my winner for the state race in September no matter what the circumstances are, but as of now I can't even guarantee anyone will be a top 5 guy. This is a very competitive year across the state in XC (think 2010 was also a great year with Gil, Endress, Campbell, Kildoo, Ayers and the North Hills monster).
I will leave you with a top 7 (that may change by the time my top 50 comes out, let's be real).
7. Comber
6. Marston
5. James
4. Molino
3. Brophy
2. Abert
1. Hoey
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