Thought #7: Pre PreStates

So i guess I'm getting that 7th thought in after all. If you want to see my top 101, scroll down a bit and check out the two posts below.

The pre states meet at Hershey looks straight loaded honestly so since I have a little bit of time I thought I'd try and sneak in a preview.

Remember, as Mr Collins pointed out, this race will be split into 3 separate races (which you guys know drives me up a wall) and we will be comparing times from different fields. But hey we will have to deal, should still be a great meet.

The meet record is, I believe, 16:09 by Ben Furcht in 08. That was the same course as it is now, and was the first time anyone ran that version. Pretty impressive mark, that I think is probably coming down this year. Weather has been great and we have some top notch runners on the itinerary. The course record is 15:45 by Tony Russell. That mark I believe is quite safe.

So let's do this division by division preview wise and since I don't remember which color goes with which class I'm just going to call them AAA, AA and A. Sorry if I mess up what division people are in, I'm still kinda trying to keep track of that. As usual your comments and feedback are appreciated.

A
The top two teams from a year ago are back in Masterman an Saegertown. Masterman won this meet last fall, but Saegertown got the ultimate prize of a state championship when the teams returned. Masterman looks strong again this year led by Julian Degroot-Lutzner, one of my favorite district 12 non PCL runners of all time and one of the guys in the mix for a top 5 spot at the A state championships. JDL won this meet last year and I believe he is the favorite to win again this go round. That low stick would be big for Masterman. Beyond the defending state champs in Sargertown, Masterman will also face tough challenges from Elk Lake and Lakeland. Lakeland has the big time one-two punch of Morgan and Arzie, while Elk Lake has a pack of solid runners with Bedell favored to lead the charge this go round. Elk Lake returns basically their whole squad from a year ago when they placed 4th at this meet. I think they are one of the current A state title favorites and will be favorites at this meet. Their D2 rivals Lakeland will give them trouble if a pack develops behind Morgan and Arzie, two top 15 guys in the state a year ago who had strong track seasons to back up their credentials on the trails.

Individually, this will be a big test for Nate Morgan as he tries to become the leading chaser for Griffin Molino's title. But he will have to battle to the very end against defending champ JDL, South Side's Colten Trimble and Greg House from New Hope. Not to mention his teammate Mark Arzie and Barclay from Saegertown.

Ultimately when the dust clears I have JDL taking down a big win to follow up a nice run at Bull Dog last week. I think he is going to be the most big race ready of the bunch and the most talented, although I do expect Trimble to give him all he can handle. I see those two as the top 2 followed by Morgan and House. It's likely that someone off my radar will be in the top 5, but Arzie certainly has the talent to be upfront as well.

As for the team title I got Elk Lake with a big early season statement, taking the title in the A race at Hershey.

AA
The boys team title is going to be quite intriguing here as well, no Tunkhannock but we do have Pottsgrove, Grove City, York Suburban and Bonner set to line up. Remember Pottsgrove quickly change gears from mid pack in AAA to AA powerhouse and with 1st and 2nd place finishes at states the last two years they are an experienced bunch trying to create a mini dynasty. Amazing stuff.

They are the favorites in my eyes to defending their meet title, but Grove City has two of the best talents in the field in Budnik and Benka to lead the way. Meanwhile Bonner will try to represent the PCL well on the small school stage behind stud front runner Ryan Rasatter who was 7th here a year ago. And then of course is the dark horse of the bunch in York Suburban. The YS boys acquired Brady Wilt in the off season and that is a huge pick up. This was already a strong squad with a recent state gold under their belt, but throw in the reigning A district champ and you got yourself a squad. I see this powerhouse of district 3 battling out with Pottsgrove for the title, but ultimately I think the Pottsgrove boys will be ready for the title and add another trophy to the case.

Lopez, the projected leader of the Pottsgrove squad, will have individual title hopes as well, but it appears for now that everyone will be taking a back seat to the defending champ Dominic Hockenbury. Hock's last big invite was disappointing by his own hard standards because Abert was able to open up such a large gap on him. But that likely means he comes into this race pissed and looking to make a statement. That's bad news for everybody else in this field. I expect Hockenbury to take this one in something pretty quick, and I don't think it will be a tight race. I'd be willing to project as fast as low 16:20s if he chooses to really go for it.

But anytime you chase a fast pace, there is potential for a mistake and that's where the other top boys in the field will step in. Benka and Budnik both grabbed state hardware last year and Benka will be chasing his third straight individual state medal in 2014. Benka came out the gates strong at RWB and seems like the choice for 2nd this weekend. I like Budnik's long term prospects, but I expect him to peak best at season's end, like he did last year. Brady Wilt is in his first big meet of the year and he is looking to represent a new jersey in 2014, a juicy subplot to this race. Wilt's ability to front run will not only transform his team's title hopes, but also it will help elevate his teammates performances. I'm excited to watch Wilt compete on Saturday. A deep sleeper in this race is Wilson's Joe Espinal. He had a break out year for Wilson last spring but tired out a bit from tons of doubling and tripling by the time he hit states. A fresher and year older Espinal will be dangerous if he finds the same success on the trails that he did on the oval.

AAA
What a great race this ought to be. I find it interesting to read what people have been saying about this match up. Most people aren't too confident about O'Hara, but I think they are a real threat in this one. I've also seen James buried in some predictions, but I expect him to contend for the title.

I think NA will win, their three appear better than Ohara's and that's where this race will be decided in my eyes, but this is a great chance to see just how good Ryan James and Rob Morro are. If they are top 10-15 in a field like this, that's an excellent sign for two developing runners. Ohara also will likely get a boost from Drew Pastore and Pat James, the JV champ a week ago. That 4-5 could swing the race if they out duel NA's 4-5.

The team getting no play (at least from what I've read) is Mt Lebo. This team has a really strong pack and I still see a breakout race in the future from T Gunz. Baun has looked great as a front runner and they appear to have the best pack of the top teams at this meet. I will be interested to see if they can manage to shorten the gap between themselves and NA.

Then there are some intriguing district match ups with Twin Valley vs Lower Dauphin and Bensalem vs CB East. Those have huge state implications long term. East and Bensalem are both squads who are hoping to crack into the very difficult top 5 at D1 and both are trying to do it with a different style. Bensalem will try to utilize a tough pack running style while CB East will ride Brophy and Sands, who had a nice tri meet against Pennridge and CB West finishing third behind Brophy and Fortna.

LD bested Red Land in a dual meet earlier this season and they have a really intriguing group of youngsters in Cassell and Shea. Weidner is developing star power as we move through the season with some impressive times already and he will provide a great low stick out front. But Twin Valley shouldn't be overlooked. They have a nice pack with the Geary boys and Diagcombo (most likely just butchered that name). He was top 50 in the state last year remember and Twin Valley wants to return to states as a team this year and LD is one of the multitude of teams they may have to beat out to get there. They are coming off a tough loss to parkland at Centaur and have greats motivation for this meet.

Lastly you have to talk about State College. They lost Cather, Adams and Golembski from last year's 4th place squad at states, but they have managed to reload behind Milligan and some promising young talent. They have a legacy to protect and some have projected them as high as 2nd in this meet. We will see how they handle the other great teams on Saturday.

Individually this race should be exciting as well. James is looking for a rebound after last week, while Brophy, who has been doing a lot of hard running, is also looking to rebound in his own way after a tough loss to Hoey. It can't be understands that Brophy runs this course quite well. He was top 30 as a freshman and top 10 as a sophomore with arguably his two best races of the season coming at states. He hasn't faded from the hills or the pressure once. That's excellent.

The NA boys McGoey and Wharrey will both face their first hilly course of the year, but Wharrey and McGoey have both excelled here before, especially at this meet, which NA torched last year. This may surprise some folks, but I'm picking Wharrey to outlast McGoey in this one. I feel a big break coming for Wharrey this week on the hills where I think he matches up better to his competition than on the fast courses.

Paul Power is a defending state medalist and sub 15:40 guy who amazingly flies under the radar on a consistent basis. This is his chance to change that. I'm not sure he can crack that top 4, but I think he will impress this weekend.

Sean Weidner will try and continue his hot streak on the grueling state course. He ran a great pre states race last year. Alex Milligan had one of his firs breakthroughs at states in cross. He will look to bounce back from Spiked Shoe where he was 8th.

Others to watch include Josh Smith, who is still recovering from injury, Eric Diestelow, looking for revenge after Bull Dog, Ethan Linderman, a top notch WPIAL runner, Jon Perlman, top 50 at states last year and in his first big meet of the year, and Jeff Kirsenbaum, the Bull Dog champ from Methacton.

In the sleeper category you have the Seneca Valley boys who are probably to good to be called sleepers at this point. Quiggle and Kolor will continue to yo-yo as a duo and try and close that gap on Linderman. Scott Seel, Ryan James and Rob Morro have big team aspirations to motivate them. Gabe Lamm from Whitehall is looking to rebound after a hard meet at DeSales, and you also have deep sleepers like Lukas Marcelis from Wissahickon and Joe Ellis from GV. Plus Alex Ramirez from Bensalem who impressed in his first meet of the season. Lastly I'm still not giving up on Dylan Eddinger from Boyertown. At some point this cross season I see a breakthrough coming.

Ultimately this is a really tough race for me to predict. This is a really talented group of guys each with a chance to pull out the W. But in the end I have to make some picks for the fans! All 3 of them!

So here we go ...
10. Perlman
9. Kirshenbaum
8. Seel
7. Linderman
6. Weidner
5. Power
4. McGoey
3. Wharrey
2. Brophy
1. James

I think less than 5 seconds separates the top 2 in this one and the winner takes down the course record. Assuming the weather in Hershey is as nice as it has been out here on Long Island.

Good luck to all at their meets this weekend!