Event By Event States Predictions: AAA 800m

Heat sheets are up on line and available through the following link: http://www.piaa.org/news/details.aspx?ID=3109. Enjoy! There are lots of interesting dynamics to each of these races and hopefully I can do each justice with their own individual posts over the coming days. Hope everyone is healthy and happy.

So here we go with perhaps the most exciting event of the whole entire weekend: the AAA boys 800m. This event is impressively stacked from top to bottom, perhaps the deepest field we have ever seen. And naturally, that means there is going to be one qualifying heat that is absolute death. Heat 2 features Zach Brehm (defending state champ), Kyle Francis (indoor state champ), Jeff Wiseman (D1 Champ 2 years in a row), Will Cather (anchor of state champ 4x8), and Nick Smart (800 leg of national champion DMR). Throw in Austin Cooper and Dave Garton who both are 1:54-1:53 types with Eli Mercado who is an indoor state medalist and you have an incredible list of competitors. Also in the field are guys like Alek Sauer and Andy Stewart. Joe Sullivan, the "slowest" seed, is a 1:56 guy. I just named 11 guys. Even if they all run 1:52, at best 8 of them will be in Saturday's final.

All that being said, Heat 1 is no cake walk. James Smith, Joey Logue, Elias Graca, Dylin Wilhoite and Brett Foster have all proven they are in the stud category with Jarrod Cruise, Billy Dougherty and Kyle Adams also lurking and ready to surprise their way into the finals. Mike Becich of NA is coming back from injury but he lurks as a deep sleeper for the final out of the lower seeds. He has his work cut out for him in this kind of field.

Realistically, a big name or two are going out. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Brehm miss the final because he will be running the 4x8 and the 16 trials beforehand. Cather may struggle to make the finals if he has to run hard in the 4x8 trials, same goes for Adams. Wiseman missed the finals last year so who knows maybe he will be the unlucky one to slip through the cracks. Ultimately, here is how I see the top 8 in each heat playing out.

Heat 1
Logue, Smith, Foster and Wilhoite get the 4 capital qs while Graca, Cruise, Becich and Adams file in behind. I'm always worried about people who are doubling making the finals. Things need to be fast in this heat in order for any time qualifiers to come out. I think they are probably most likely to get 1, but it's definitely possible they get zero. I think Graca will slide in, but it's no guarantee.

Heat 2
Wiseman, Smart, Garton and Cooper are my capital qs and then I think it will probably be Cather, Francis, Brehm and Mercado although I'm not confident at all about this group. Top 4 times out of this heat will likely be 1:53ish which is very quick for a state prelim.That should be enough to drag at least 3 of the time qualifiers along. Mercado/Graca would be my pick for the 12th qualifier, but I'm going with Graca because I think he has an easier heat, has a better PR, and is probably a slightly more fun story. He's just a junior who has made significant drops in time in the last few weeks. Props to Mercado though. He has done a phenomenal job with Boyertown's relay and if he wasn't doubling, we would probably be having a different conversation. Big fans of both guys accomplishments to date.

I like what Sauer has done the last two weeks and I certainly am rooting for anyone wearing the Upper Dublin jersey, but this heat might just be a bit above these two guys heads at this point in their career. However, don't count them completely out. Stewart will be completely fresh this time out and that may prove to be very important. Sauer beat guys like Garton and Mercado last weekend even on tired legs so if his 4x8 prelim is reasonable he may be fresh enough to make the finals this year.

So ultimately here is my final: Logue, Wiseman, Smith, Smart, Foster, Cather, Wilhoite, Cooper, Graca, Francis, Brehm and Garton.

In the finals you will have lots of guys with tired legs. There is definitely a chance that Francis bags the 4x8 and goes after another Gold, which makes things a bit more complicated as well. Smith will also be very fresh headed into the finals and has quietly put together a very nice year at 800m. Plus he isn't in the heat of death like Wiseman is. Smart's fresh too going into the final, but again that heat of death thing is looming.

The way I see it Wiseman, Smith, Logue, Smart, Brehm and maybe Francis are the guys who can win the title. A fresh and ready Kyle Francis could win a state title, just not sure we will see that guy at states. If anyone else outside of this group wins I'll be pleasantly surprised. I love a good upset.

I'm not sure exactly how I see this playing out, but I do think Francis, Smith and Wiseman will make the pace fast in the early going. Logue will just have to sit in and be patient. Joey Logue has had a fantastic career down at Pennridge. He ran 1:51 in a perfect race at Henderson back as a sophomore and spent a lot of his years sacrificing individual glory for the 4x4 and the 4x8, including this season. If Logue was fresh for the open 8 he would be my pick to win. As is, I think he is going to run an unreal anchor leg on the 4x8 and that puts him at risk to look like Connor Manley in the final.

I think the fast pace out front is going to put Smart just a bit too far out of it to take the gold. That being said, I really like his chances as a kicker in this event. If he can hang on long enough, then he could jump by Wiseman, Francis and/or Smith on the home straight and take gold.

Brehm could certainly do this as well. He ran a PR of 1:53 last weekend on the quadruple after the 32, 4x8 and 16. But I anticipate him running very hard in both the 4x8 and the 16 over the course of the weekend. Plus he will have a very difficult prelim in the 8 under his legs. He is the defending champ and he doubled well last year after a gutsy relay split, but his schedule is awfully full. When Palmisano tried this triple at states he ran 1:51, won the 16 in 4:13 and then had very little mental energy left for the open 8. He sat at the back of the field and kicked down third place in a field that lacked depth. This field is significantly better than that field and I think that leaves Brehm in the middle of the pack somewhere and out of contention the final straight.

Ultimately, I think this race is coming down to Wiseman and James Smith. Wiseman was my pick to win a year ago, but he didn't make it to finals. That's worrisome, especially considering how much more difficult his prelim is in comparison to Smith's. I think Wiseman is just the more talented guy out of the two and has 48 400m speed in the open which is hard to stop. I think Smith makes this thing closer than most expect, but ultimately Wiseman strides away with the gold.

Things should play out pretty tight behind this group. I think Smart is getting into the top 3 on the last straightaway and catches Francis as things start to slow. Cooper and Wilhoite are a couple of guys who should contender for the top 5 because they are fresher than the majority of the field. I really think Wilhoite will have a strong day. Placing Logue and Brehm will be the trickiest part of my predicting. Let's face it, either of those guys could pop off a 1:52 type mark and be right in the mix for gold, but it's also possible that their busy schedules make them pretty tired and the fast early pace puts them too far out of contention to be motivated to use their impressive kicks to their advantage. And how will Cather handle the weekend? He ran really well at District 6 champs, but if he already has state gold around his neck will he settle in the 8 final? Or will he run hard like Alec Kunzweiler who finished second 2 years back? What if SC loses the 4x8? A motivated Cather could be scary in this group. I see he and Logue both just being too tired to make noise in this field, but both have doubled well at various points during the season, including last week and could prove me wrong.

I left Dave Garton off my medal stand which hurt a bit. I like the running this guy has done and he has a lot of experience at states. He is hungry to finally get in the final and on the podium ever since he first burst on the state stage as a sophomore. (Fun fact, the 2012 final featured freshman Zach Brehm, soph Jeff Wiseman and soph Dave Garton ... this year's AAA field has 0 freshman or sophomores who have even qualified for the event). Brett Foster from Seneca Valley has had a really nice season as well. He seems to have the 4x8-8 double down pretty well. But how fast can Foster's legs carry him? I think he is one of the top guys in his heat and should advance to the finals, but after what will likely be 3 hard 800ms in his legs, his medal chances may be significantly slimmer. Graca is one of the few younger guys with potential to make the final. He and Brehm are the only two juniors I have slotted for the final. Graca will gain valuable experience this year and if he can rise to the moment he will get himself another big PR. If not, he will back next year ready to contend.

Here is how I see them crossing the line:
1. Wiseman 1:51.89
2. Smith 1:52.66
3. Smart 1:53.33
4. Francis 1:53.77
5. Cooper 1:53.99
6. Wilhoite 1:54.22
7. Logue 1:54.62
8. Brehm 1:54.89