The Patented etrain Number Crunch: 4x800m

By etrain11

 

If you are reading this blog, I hope that at least some part of you likes the various numbers associated with the sport and the power of history, consistency and randomness. I’ve been following the sport since 2007 and, as a huge fan of the 4x8, I decided to crunch some numbers on the AAA 4x800m relay. So here is a little breakdown of some fun facts that I noticed from my study. As always, I’m just throwing out numbers, these are not predictions or opinions, but facts. I will allow you to project what this could or could not mean for the future …

 

1) District One Dominates at States

Wow, real ground breaking stuff right off the bat from train. But it’s nice to put numbers behind the theory. Since 2007, District One has contributed 52.6% of the finalists in the 4x8 and 57.8% of the medalists. The next best mark is District Three who has contributed 22.7% and 18.8% respectively. And there is depth out of the district as well. In the past 8 years, District One has had 28 different teams make it to the finals at states, providing a wide variety of squads at the top level. District 3 has had 10 different teams and District 7 has had 5. An average state final by the numbers is approximately 6 D1 teams, 3 D3, 1 D7, 1 D12, 1 D6.

 

North Penn is the only team to win to titles during this time period (2007 and 2008), CB West is the only team to finish in the top three on three different occasions (2008, 2010, 2011) and District One has grabbed 5 of the last 8 titles in the event (North Penn x2, CB South, CB West, Bensalem).

 

2) Consistency and longevity are program provers

I think like to think of it this way, high schools go through “generations” every four years. Everyone who was at Upper Dublin HS in 2010 is graduated by 2014, meaning the team has completely turned over. If you can make the state finals in multiple generations, that’s an impressive statement about a program developing talent. Here’s a list of schools with multiple generation finalists: North Penn, Cumberland Valley, State College, Henderson, Penncrest, Central Dauphin, Cedar Crest, Carlisle and North Allegheny. Even more impressive, North Penn, Cumberland Valley, State College, Henderson, Penncrest and Carlisle have multiple generation medalists and North Penn, Henderson and Penncrest have multiple generation top 5 teams.

 

Cumberland Valley and North Penn have made 5 of the last 8 finals, the most of the time period, while State College and Penncrest are next with 4. The past 8 years, there has only been one state final (2010) that didn’t include at least one of North Penn or Cumberland Valley. State College and Pennridge are the only teams to make 3 of the last 4 state finals dating back to 2011, while Central Dauphin and Cedar Crest are the only teams to make 3 finals during this time frame without any back to back appearances. In this paragraph, I’ve mentioned 5 of the last 8 state champions. That’s not a coincidence seeing as each team that won a state championship between 2007 and 2014 made it to at least two other finals during that time span.

 

North Penn’s 4 top 5 finishes and two state titles puts them in pole position for the best relay school of my era, but State College is ascending as well with 4 medaling squads since 2007 including three straight medal relays dating back to 2012. In fact, State College and North Penn are the only teams to medal in three straight finals dating back to 2007 (Pennsbury is the only squad eligible to join that group this season with a medal at this year’s championships). It’s worth noting that 2007-2008-2009 was at the tail end of an absolute dynasty from North Penn, but recent history shows dominance like that for any team is fading …

 

3) Consistency and longevity are really hard to achieve

It’s really hard to stay at the top. Since 2009, only one team has made it to the state finals the year after winning the state championship (2012-2013 Cumberland Valley) and no team has won back to back titles since North Penn in 2007-2008, the very edge of this era. No team has made it to 4 straight state finals, meaning no one has sustained success for an entire generation (North Penn, CV, SC, Abington and LaSalle have done 3 straight). 51 different teams have made at least one state final over the past 8 seasons (97 finals spots) and 26 teams, over a quarter of the spots, made just one finals within that 8 year period. Each year there has been at least one team that was a unique one-time qualifier, and on average the number is 3.25 relative newbies.

 

The generational thing really jumps out when you consider 2015 would be the next generation after 2011 and all 8 medalists from the 2011 finals have not made it back to the finals since, including some squads with nice histories (the full list of squad: CB West, Abington, LaSalle, Hershey, Easton, CB South, Penn Hills and Strath Haven). The 9^th place team, North Penn, didn’t climb back to the finals until 2014. What’s particularly interesting is many of those 2011 “drought” teams, seem to be back on the rise this year. CB West was a COA qualifier, LaSalle and Abington had strong showings at Penn, Hershey and Strath Haven were Penn Relays qualifiers and Penn Hills is atop m sleeper picks for this season.

 

4) Experience never hurts

As hard as it is for teams to maintain dominance, the teams that have good stretches, really take advantage. In an average year during this time span, nearly 3.5 teams from the previous year’s final return the next year, with a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 5. Twenty-five different schools have made multiple state finals and 92% of those schools left with at least one medal. State College has medaled in 4 out of 4 finals that they qualified for with CB West, CB South and Baldwin all going three for three. Teams like LaSalle, Abington and CB West have had stretches of steady improvement each year after making it back to the finals.

 

And just to reiterate, teams that have won the title dating back to 2007, have all qualified for a prior state finals within that generation and five of the last 7 state champions were medalists the previous year at Shippensburg.

 

5) This list may surprise you: the list of 3 time finalists

The individuals who drive great relays are not often the names you would expect. From 2007 to 2009, here are the runners who ran in 3 separate state finals for the 4x8 (note that I’m not positive on these, so I starred those I was making an assumption for):

 

Joe Logue, Pennridge (2011, 2012, 2014), Open PR: 1:51 (best known split 1:51)

Mato Bekelja, Hershey (2008*, 2010, 2011), Open PR: 1:53 (best known split 1:52)

Will Cather, State College (2012, 2013, 2014), Open PR: 1:54 (best known split 1:52)

Brian Quintrell, North Penn (2007, 2008, 2009), Open PR: 1:55 (best known split 1:53)

Mark Fuller, Cumberland Valley (2007, 2008, 2009), Open PR: 1:55 (best known split 1:54)

Kyle Adams, State College (2012, 2013, 2014), Open PR: 1:56 (best known split 1:56)

Chris Muggler, LaSalle (2009*, 2010, 2011), Open PR: 1:57 (best known split 1:55)

Tevin Smith, Abington (2009, 2010, 2011), Open PR: 1:59 (best known split 1:55)

 

Considering all the amazing 800m talent we have had in the past 8 years, in may surprise you to see some of the names both on and off this list. I think it speaks to a variety of things. First, and perhaps most obviously, it truly takes a team effort to succeed in the 4x8. One runner is important, but a super-star alone won’t carry a team to the finals every year. You also need a special kind of athlete who thrives on the relays and is willing to sacrifice some of his individual glory in exchange for bigger things on the team side. These guys certainly fit that description. And, of course, you need a little bit of luck. The fact that sophomore year Quintrell came along just in time to crack his team’s back to back state title squad is at least a little bit of luck. It’s really hard to be good enough to make a top tier 4x8 as a freshman or sophomore in high school, but these guys pulled it off and now get the pay off of being featured in this post! What a victory!

 

6) Bonus fun fact!

Since the PCL joined in 2009, they have sent exactly one team to the state 4x8 finals every single year. And those teams each have come in order: LaSalle 3x 2009-2011, O’Hara 2x 2012-2013, St. Joe’s Prep 1x 2014. I found that cool at least …

 

So there you have it track fans, enjoy your history lesson for the day.