Finally ... Etrain's Indoor Track Preview

by Jarrett Felix

Well, I wanted to try and wait until after the XC season was officially over (good luck to Jake Brophy at Footlocker), but considering the indoor season is about to officially begin and I didn’t think it made sense to wait any longer on the track previews. I’ll be outlining my early season track thoughts in this post below and the homepage will be making the shift to track related material. If you want to keep with my “All-Decade” coverage for my best runners of my ten years of covering the sport, you can keep up with that using the filter alldecade. So let’s get down to business.

XC State Medalists

Even in the track previews, he is still repping XC stuff. What gives etrain? Well, I promise you this is relevant. Naturally, the 2015 XC season is the perfect chance to see who is ascending in the state ranks. While track and cross country are both very different animals, but the top names tend to overlap, especially when you are talking 3k/3200m. Here’s a look of the place at XC states for the last 10 indoor state champs at 3,000m: 1^st, 1^st, 3^rd, 5^th, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st, 4^th, 7^th, 4^th. And that doesn’t tell the whole story. If you look at each of the 3k fields, the winner of the race was the top XC runner 70% of the time. (Note: Dustin Wilson was the only non-AAA winner of the indoor 3k. I counted him as a 1^st place finisher as he was the independent state champ and PA’s lone Footlocker Finalist).

So let’s take a peek at the leader board from this year’s XC season: Brophy, Hoey, Hoey, Hockenbury, Wolk, Henderson, Sappey, Mackey and Dahl. Looks like a pretty good place to star if you are trying to predict a 3,000m indoor champion this year. But more on that in a bit.

So the 3k is an obvious correlation, but what about the indoor mile?

Here’s your last ten state champions for the indoor miles place at the previous state championship: 10^th, 2^nd, 1^st*, 4^th*, 29^th, 2^nd, 9^th, N/A, 1^st, 1^st*. It’s worth noting that three of these runners (marked with a *) have independent state finishes listed, but the point, I believe still stands. These guys are pretty darn good at XC. The outliers (Mallon was 29^th, Huemmler did not qualify) were in fields that were crowded with plenty of other XC pros. Finishing near Mallon were state XC medalists Tom Kehl (11^th), Wade Endress (20^th), Nick Scarpello (15^th) and Ryan Gil (3^rd). Finishing behind Huemmler in 2013 were medalists Tony Russell (1^st), Tom Coyle (11^th), and James Zingarini (18^th).

Bottom line: the majority of the favorites in the mile will come from the medals at XC states.

So you know where I’m going with this, what about the 800m? This one is a trick question. Since 2006, only Wade Endress has finished in the top 50 at the XC states before winning the indoor state title at 800m. That’s 1/10. And it’s at least worth noting that Endress won the mile that same championships. Of course this doesn’t mean there have not been success stories from XC studs, but it shows you that the skill sets for the 800m and the mile are different animals. Dudes with range from the 400m to the 5,000m are rare breeds. That’s why Endress is one of the best to ever run for PA.

My overall point here is that the XC state medalists are an intriguing list to speculate from for this upcoming track season. Some guys on the list are already well established in the track world, but others are just starting to spread their wings. What will Kent Hall focus on? Is Wolk a miler or a 3k guy? How about Migliozzi? Kirshenbaum? Shah? It should be fun to watch what’s next for these guys.

The Relays

This year will be an intriguing one for the relays. With the new state meet format, teams can run both the 4x8 and the DMR. Considering that a slew of squads sacrificed individual events in 2015 to focus on one relay, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a large amount of teams pour all their resources into the relays. It’s also worth mentioning that the new order makes the 3k-DMR extremely difficult and the 4x8-Mile double will really complicate decision making as well.

At a high level, you have a few top teams that look poised to contend for either one of the state relays, depending on preference and development. Downingtown West, the reigning XC state champs, are loaded this year. They return three runners under 4:20 for 1600m along with Henry Sappey who has run 4:20/9:30 type marks and excelled in a few key relay spots last year. Theoretically, they can do serious damage at the 4xMile, but that’s not a state event. My early guess is they go individuals and DMR (Sappey doesn’t even need to run the DM) and even with 2-3 doubling pieces they still have to be atop the favorites list in that relay. Interesting side note, however, the reigning XC state championships have won just 2 of the last 9 DMR state titles and just 1 of the last 10 4x8s.

The independent state champions, Germantown Friends, return a ton of talent from last year’s top 4 squad, including sub 9 minute 3200m runner Nick Dahl and stand out 1200m leg Grayson Hepp. Their 800m talent pool ended up growing substantially towards the end of the spring (something that they didn’t have completely figured out last indoors) which will be a nice extra wrinkle to watch this year. I think the majority of GFS’s top XC guys are better at track than XC. Potentially much better in all honesty. And GFS is no stranger to the DMR. They’ve run an excellent relay at states just about every year in the past decade and, although they did grab a win at Penn Relays in 2008, they have yet to grab a single indoor state title in the event. If they go all in the relay (like they did last year), they might be able to pull the upset.

Don’t sleep on O’Hara. I’m not sure what relay they will opt for, but they return an up and coming 800m stand out in Justin Jones plus it looks like picked up Quentin Francis from Neumann Goretti (another quality 800m man). Add in Rob Morro who delivered some big 1200m legs last year and two time XC state medalist Ryan James and there is some nice upside here. Losing KJ from their state and national championship teams hurts a lot, but this program knows how to stay relevant. Their PCL rivals LaSalle are also serious contenders. They’ve won two state titles in the DMR and finished second in the event back in 2014. The other years they have produced serious contenders in the 4x8 relay, including last year. They return some solid pieces from last year’s program and have nice depth, but it’s uncertain which stars will rise to the occasion and help take this team over the top. Patrick Grant had an excellent year last spring with mid to low 4:20s and 1:57 type ability on his resume. He should lead the charge for the Explorers.

Many of the top 4x8 squads have potential to dabble in the DMR if they would like. Especially considering the DMR is second. State College jumps out instantly in this case. Alex Milligan ran 1:53 and 4:17 last year in near back-to-back races for the Little Lions (who return three members from last year’s 7:41.50). He could be a dynamite anchor leg to put alongside Nick Feffer (1:54 split last spring, XC state medalist this fall) at the 1200m. They have Degleris (1:56 split) and Noah Woods (49 open, 48ish split) to round things out. They won a state title in 2014 with four seniors and still ran well under 8 minutes indoors in 2015 with an entirely newsquad. I’d say the DMR (as of now) is their best event, but there is no way this team passes on the 4x8 considering their history and prowess.

CB West finished in the medals for the 4x8 both indoors and outdoors last year. They return 3 of 4 members from last year’s team (including a rising sophomore who split 1:56ish at Penn Relays) and had a strong amount of depth last year (I believe their 5^th best 800m qualified for districts). This squad made the Championship of America last outdoors and finished second at districts, ahead of teams like Pennridge who ended up running 7:40 at states. In case you didn’t notice, CB West had a killer XC season, particularly Rock Fortna, who split 1:54 and 4:16 last year. The team’s senior leader, Andrew Baker, will be missed in the lead off position, but considering this team’s impressive history in the 4x8 (state record holders indoors), I’m confident that they will rise to the challenge. Considering that the 2010 squad was similarly situated returner wise (they had Senior Nick Scarpello as their senior leader) and then the 2011 squad ran 7:45 and 7:38ish with two state golds, we should all be on high alert.

Pennridge is a very intriguing squad for the 2016 track seasons. They lose Dan Williams, a state meet finalist in the 800m who split around 1:53 last spring, but return the other three members of their 4x8 that ran 7:40 to get a surprise silver at outdoor states. Tucker Desko, who split in the low 1:53s, returns to anchor the squad after a solid XC season. Pennridge medaled last indoors and then, from what I’ve heard, basically completely turned over the squad for outdoors and got even better. Desko was more of a mile-32 type if I recall before making the switch down to the 4x8 and they also moved up some 400m talent (Austin Howell) to get involved in the lead-off spot. All three of these schools have proven they have excellent 4x8 reputations (each have won state titles in the last five years) and this group should be incredibly fun to watch battle it out.

You know who I’m pretty excited about for the 2016 season? Abington. I believe they lose 1 or 2 pieces from last year’s team, but this squad returns a young up and comer in Mitchell as well as Senior Jake Good who won the Abington Invitational in XC over some excellent names before disappearing this fall. This program churned out some killer relays in a stretch from 2008-2011 and we might be headed for a similar routine. Like CB West, this squad ran with top teams like Pennridge at Districts but fell off a bit at states. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abington in the mix with the top squads.  

A few others worth mentioning for the relays: Penn Wood ran a 7:48.06 last year and got a killer leg out of Dennis Manyeah (1:55ish) on the lead off spot. Assuming they return a few pieces (I know Ponzo graduates and he was a key piece) they might be a factor in the 4x8. Their 4x4 was also super legit and they didn’t really find their stride in the 4x8 until districts. With an extra year’s worth of experience we might see something special. Bishop Shanahan ran right with Penn Wood at Districts (they beat them by about a second in fact), but just missed out on a spot in the finals at states. I believe they return their entire relay including Fromhartz who was a 1:54 type split on last year’s team and lead off leg Chris Kolimago from their 7:53 relay. Remember, Shanahan made some big strides in XC when they finished 3^rd as a team in AA. Cedar Crest is an excellent program, but they likely won’t truly turn it on until outdoors. Same is probably true for schools like North Allegheny and Seneca Valley. Talented programs like Altoona, Pennsbury, Bensalem and Penncrest lost some key pieces, but those squads are lurking as sleepers. And CB East has the best runner in the state on their team with some intriguing returning pieces like Shahideh and Kettleberger (plus Goetz). Keep an eye out for that team.

Individuals

With all-timers like John Lewis and Sam Ritz graduating, the middle distance events seem a bit more wide open. Last spring, seven runners ran sub 1:52 for 800m and, assuming Peretta continues to not race indoors, none of those guys will be competing this indoor season. That leaves the door open for 1:53 man Matt Wisner who won his section of the 800m at indoor states as he started his coming out party last year. Wisner did not cool off one bit this fall, adding his first XC state medal and a championship at Mid Penns to his resume. Carlisle usually does a nice job peaking for outdoors (especially Zach Brehm), but that doesn’t mean Wisner can’t contend for a title indoors. My favorite thing about this guy is that he’s an excellent racer and an excellent winner. He’s got a great kick and will put himself in the mix with the best. If he doesn’t move up to the mile (where things are a lot more crowded) and we don’t see Peretta emerge from the shadows, Wisner is a strong favorite in the half.

The milers are dangerous at this distance as well. Jaxson Hoey, Mike Kolor and Jake Brophy have all run 1:54-1:53 type marks and I bet they could even go faster in the right races. None of these guys (Brophy especially) are natural 800m stars in my mind, but all are coming off fantastic fall seasons and all likely know the mile field could end up being crowded so maybe one jumps out for this event. At the very least, assuming everybody is healthy, I think we see some impressive marks from this crew. But come PSU, I think all of these guys will be in the mile first with maybe a double in play (Brophy may skip the mile for the 3k as well, depending on his relay duties).

Nick Wagner had a bit of a quiet spring, but an explosive summer, clocking PRs all over the place. The rising Junior was a near medalist last indoors and could play spoiler to Wisner’s reign out front. He’s still pretty unproven and the Western part of the state has struggled to get championships indoors (although so has District 3) so who knows what we will see from this guy, but he’s at least a name to watch. Also watch out for Michael Bove from Fox Chapel. He ran an under the radar 1:55 800m behind Elias Graca’s tutelage and Fox Chapel has shown they can excel during indoors (two silvers and a gold in distance at the last three championships). I’m not sure Bove is ready to break out the way Graca did, but he’s definitely a name to scan for in results.

Last year’s freshmen class had some of the best 800m men we have seen in a while. Kamil Jihad was the biggest name from the group, running 1:55 last outdoors and contending near the top of the 800m field last indoors. Hudson Delisle from Quakertown had a very strong XC season for a sophomore 800m man and could be a deeper sleeper as well (also has a great training partner in Brett Wolfinger).

And hey, let’s not forget about rising junior Stephen McClellan from St. Joe’s Prep. He turned a lot of heads when he won the District 12 championships in 1:54.54 last spring to roll onto states. He missed the finals at Shippensburg, but the potential was made quite clear. Prep produced a dynamite DMR last year behind john Daly so they know how to contend during the winter time.

A few more names to watch at this distance include Sean Sullivan from Bonner, a clutch, hard nosed racer who made outdoor final last year, Sean McGinnis, who had a killer XC season to follow a sneaky good outdoor season that included a slew of 1:55 type marks, and a lot of strong relay runners from a year ago (Eric Kersten stands out as maybe this year’s Dylan Eddinger, a lesser known lead off leg who could do big things focusing on the open, Desko, Feffer, Milligan, Fortna, etc.). Also, I’m rambling here, but Joe Previdi of Masterman is a name to keep an eye on. Not sure what his focus will be, but he’s a gamer who killed it during XC this past fall and split 1:58ish on the lead off leg for Masterman’s 4x8.

If we bump up to the mile, most of these same names are in contention. We know already about Brophy, Kolor and Hoey (I’m sure I’ll talk plenty about them during the season, so I’ll spare you from that now), but we also have to keep an eye on North Pocono’s Matt Kravitz. I was very impressed with this guy’s XC season and he was a strong 4:17 miler last spring. I actually think he can crank it up another notch this year and really drop some time based on his most recent running. And of course, who knows what kind of jump Josh Hoey is ready to make. The kid was third at XC states in 15:49 as a sophomore after running the equivalent of 4:15ish for 1600m as a freshmen. Would it be a total surprise if Josh won indoor states for the mile this year? I think not.

Jacob Stupak was a 4:19ish type guy last spring and he clearly took his game to another level during this past XC season, breaking 16 at Hershey. NA is a bit quieter indoors than they are outdoors, but it’s not crazy to think Stupak is a medal contender like Gil, Steiner, McGoey and Wharrey were in the past. I guess “a bit quieter” is probably the wrong term, considering they have produced a pair of state champion 3k runners in the last five years or so. I just feel like their speed really gets going in the spring perhaps more so than the east coast teams who have a more intense indoor season.

Colin Wills from Malvern Prep and Cooper Leslie from Camp Hill are both also great names to watch as contenders this winter and spring. Wills had a very strong year last year, producing a memorable 1200m leg at Penn Relays. Leslie ran a great 32-16 double at the outdoor state championships and is coming off easily his best XC season of his career. XC state medalist Liam Galligan of Springfield DELCO is another name to watch in this mile field, having qualified last year as the lone sophomore in the event. And, as mentioned, Jeff Kirshenbaum competed in this event last year and ran sub 16 at Hershey this fall (among other impressive achievements). I see Kirshenbaum as more of a 3k type, but I’m sure he could pop off a great mile in the right circumstances.

Which brings us to that 3,000m crop of talent. And trust me there is a lot. Considering we just watched a slew of top guys battle it out in XC, we have a good idea for who many of the most aerobically fit guys are. Again, I don’t want to be boring by throwing out the same names that always get publicity, but Brophy (if he runs) and Hockenbury (who will almost definitely run) are two clear studs in this event. Nick Dahl is the last member of the top trio and, considering his spring, might actually be the best of the three. Dahl probably will have some relay complications (same can be said for Brophy), but I think Dahl could have a huge winter. Plus, he will get a head start on training relative to Brophy who will have Footlockers to deal with.

Outside of the top of the crop, I think Todd Gunzenhauser could have a really nice season. He impressed me a lot with his efforts for 3k indoors and 3200m outdoors (9:16) and had his best race at the perfect time this past fall, grabbing a state medal in Hershey. The WPIAL could potentially have a ton of talent stretching across all divisions with Loevner coming off an 8:48 3k last year, Susalla proving himself as a sub 9 indoor 3k type (and sub 16 at Hershey type), Forsythe making solid strides, Mackey and Clouse producing big XC years (although I don’t think Sewickley dabbles much with indoors) and Skolnekovich of Quaker Valley (again, probably a non factor indoors). And of course, Peretta could probably contend for the win in this thing if he wanted to. He’s dangerous on the track (but probably not competing on his future home track seeing as he doesn’t appear to race indoors).

Nathan Henderson, Will Kachman and Bryce Descavish are all notable names who had huge PRs at last year’s outdoor state championships. They were all quiet during the indoor season and may be again this year, but they have momentum really on their side. Especially Henderson, who ran 9:08 for 3200m last spring after probably topping out around a similar time indoors … for the 3k.

Deeper on the sleeper list, keep an eye on Jacob Toczko from Tunkhannock. The school has produced a couple indoor medalists (including Jack Tidball last year) and Toczko ran a sneaky fast 3k in 9:02ish last year. He had a strong showing during XC and might be able to make noise on the track if things break right. He’s coming from a strong program.