NCAA 800m Preview

By Caleb Gatchell  

If there’s a theme to the 800 this year I think it would have to be parity. There are a few guys who are, or at least seem to be, pretty clear favorites for the top few spots at NCAA’s, but after that it is a mess. Last year it took 1:48.52 to make the national meet and there were 18 guys in the 1:48-1:49 range. That’s a recipe for every tenth of a second making a huge difference, and most of those guys are back this year. Throw in a couple of insanely talented newcomers, and you’ve got everything you need for a crazy year.

The Favorites

Obviously Brandon McBride belongs in this group. While he didn’t have the best showing at championship meets last year, he does have several NCAA Championships to his name, and is one of the most talented 800 runners I’ve ever watched. I’m expecting big things from him this year, and would be shocked if he’s not in the final come NCAA’s. Next is Shaquille Walker. He burst onto the scene indoors last year with some solid 1:47 type marks, and then shocked everyone by running 1:45 outdoors. He finished 5th at NCAA outdoors last year and 6th at USA’s so I think he’s figured out how to manage himself through the rounds. Andres Arroyo also deserves to be mentioned as one of the favorites. His issues with prelims have been well documented, but you can’t ignore the type of talent he has. 1:46 indoors is crazy fast and shows he’s definitely capable of running with the best of them. Clayton Murphy may be the odds on favorite coming into the season though. He was 3rd both indoors and outdoors, before finishing 4th at USA’s and running at Worlds after the Nick Symmonds fiasco. He was also 20th at his XC regional race showing some great range. I think he might end up in the mile this year, but if he doesn’t, watch out for him. He peaks perfectly for championships, and knows how to get through the rounds. Finally, Brannon Kidder, should he choose the 800, has to be one of the favorites as well. He dropped a 1:45 out of nowhere outdoors last year, and then finished 2nd at Nationals showing he has earned the right to be mentioned with the top dogs. 

The Second Tier

Dylan Capwell was oh-so-close to being one of the favorites in my eyes, but ultimately I need to see just a little bit more. He had a great month at the end of indoors last year, culminating in a perfectly timed kick and pr. to grab 2nd at Nationals. However, outdoors didn’t go as well and he missed the final. There’s no question he’s talented, but I need to see just a little more consistency on a big stage. Prove indoors wasn’t a fluke, Dylan, and you’ll never be a second tier man again. Ryan Schnulle is another guy like Capwell who needs to prove his big performance wasn’t a fluke. He was second outdoors as a sophomore, but then struggled at both national meets last year, finishing a disappointing 7th indoors and missing the final outdoors. He’s run really fast, but has he really learned how to deal with prelims and finals successfully?  Ryan Manahan is coming off of a very good season last year where he ran 1:47 and 3:58. He will be adjusting to a new team this year though, after transferring to Ole Miss, so I’m interested to see if that affects him at all. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he went with the mile instead of the 800. Joe McAsey is a guy who I think could really surprise some people this year. He’s going to be a senior, so he has the experience. He’s also been very consistent the last couple seasons, and that’s huge. If he can use that experience and keep the consistency, he’ll be very dangerous. Joe White had a great freshman campaign last year and picked up some valuable NCAA experience. If he can use that to navigate prelims this year, he could really shake things up in the final. Collins Kibet is in a similar situation. He didn’t have a great indoor season last year, but was pretty dang good outdoors. If he can figure out what he needs to do indoors, he’ll be a force come championship season. 

Show Me Something

Tre’tez Kinnaird has been really consistent throughout his college career. Only problem is, consistent 1:48’s is a recipe for good but not great. It kind of feels like he’s always finishing 9that big meets. So, Tre’tez, show me something. Show me you can be a great runner, not just a good runner. Show me you’re better than 9th every year. Jacopo Lahbi was part of a breakthrough Alabama mid-D squad last year, but has yet to make a final. He ran 1:46 outdoors last year, so there’s clearly talent there. He just needs to learn how to use it. What do I want to see? I need to see that he can make it through prelims and be effective in finals. Jake Mazanke has run under 1:50 twice in his career, but one of those was a 1:48.57. That showed he’s got some pretty good wheels, but he needs to figure out how to do that consistently, which is what I need to see from him. If he can’t be consistent, he can’t be a big name on the NCAA 800 scene. Finally, Niki Franzmair came in to Oregon as a really highly touted recruit. However, besides his 800 split on the DMR, he has yet to make an impact at a national meet. So, like Tre’tez, he needs to prove that he can be effective on a big stage. Show me that he can come through clutch in an individual event like he was able to on that DMR.

The Newcomers

There are three big names coming in who could have huge impacts on the NCAA scene: Myles Marshall, Donavan Brazier, and Jonah Koech. Koech was second at African Juniors last year and also ran 1:47.99 at altitude. I believe I’ve also heard rumors that he ran 1:46, but I couldn’t find results for that anywhere. Regardless, the man is quick, and if he runs the 800 he can certainly shake up the NCAA landscape. Donavan Brazier is coming off of a ridiculous senior year in high school, and opened his year with a 4:07 mile and a 47.4 4x400 split. I think he could be a top 5 guy by the end of the year, but for now it’s wait and see what happens. Myles Marshall also had a great senior year of high school, although not quite at the same level as Brazier. However, he has a lot of international experience and knows how to handle rounds at a championship meet. That can be invaluable experience and could help him make a big impact at NCAA’s. 

It’s a fun year to be an 800 fan, that’s for sure and I can’t wait to see how things shakeout. If I had to say, I think Clayton Murphy is the favorite coming in. The way he finished things out last year was too impressive not to say he’s the favorite. That being said, I’m sure McBride has a bitter taste in his mouth from last year, so don’t count him out just yet.