By Jarrett
Felix
With the
Oscars now officially in the books, it’s time for us to move on from the
2015-2016 season and turn our attention to this fall’s highly anticipated XC
season. And there is no better way to break in the season with the blog’s
signature feature: the XC Top 50 Rankings. The Top 50 list is a breakdown of my
projected top 50 cross country runners in the state of Pennsylvania. Here’s a
general sense of the criteria for the list:
1)
It’s subjective, not objective. Unlike the milesplit lists or
dyestat lists, it doesn’t just take the top 50 times from the previous season
and roll them up into a list. It also doesn’t add up someone’s 5k, 32 and 16
times together with some fancy formula. I’m a numbers guy for sure, but I also
consider myself a logical guy. There’s way more that goes into the sport of
cross country than simply numbers on a page. So there’s some deep analysis and,
more importantly, a lot of opinion and projection that go into the list. Most
of you can and will disagree. That’s good! Makes things much more fun.
2)
It’s about who you beat, not what
you ran. Times are
all well and good, but each course is a unique beast. Each race is also unique
as not all weather is the same, not all competition is the same and not all
effort levels are the same.
3)
The big meets count the most. In this sport, it’s all about
peaking properly. You can run awesome in September, but no one will really
remember if you don’t back it up in November. As a result, the most important
result in these pre season rankings is your performance at the previous year’s
state championship. The big cut offs are Top 50 and Top 25. Top 25 is the
medalists. Those guys are pretty elite. Top 50 is kind of my “fluke cut off”. If
you are a top 50 finisher you are quite legit, but once you start drifting into
the 60s and things like that, things get a bit less exact. The state course is
difficult and with all the talent swirling together, some flukey things can
happen between 60 and 100. That’s why team titles get so exciting.
4)
It’s a projection. Track times, age, potential,
training partners, etc. all come into play. The list is always meant to be a
projection for the end of the season, rather than a “who is the best right now”
sort of thing. Think of it like a fantasy football draft power rankings. I’m
ranking people based on who I would pick if this was a fantasy draft for finish
at states in November. That’s doesn’t necessarily mean I picked the guys who
did the best last time.
So
there’s your summary of the list. Hopefully that gives you an idea of what to
expect looking ahead. If it doesn’t, let me take this next window to discuss
some of the people who didn’t make the list that will almost certainly be on it
at some point later on.
1)
Rising sophomores. Freshman are rarely ever near the
top of the state landscape. We were spoiler two years back with Spencer Smucker
and Josh Hoey as well as Jake Brophy in 2012. Freshman almost never finish in
the Top 50 at AAA states and so they rarely make a dent in the rankings.
However, there are always sophomores
in the mix at states. The question is, who will make the leap? It’s hard to
guess, honestly, so I left a lot of guys off the list (I believe there are only
3 sophomores on the Top 50 list and it could have arguably been less). Some of
the names that didn’t make the top 50 but did make top 100: Jack Ettien of
Bishop Shanahan (has some new teammates, but loses some key training partners,
top talent in AA last year), Henry Maekem of Sewickley Academy (surprising A
state medalist as a frosh, loaded squad), Ryan Stravaggi of Harbor Creek, Matt
Eissler of Pennridge, David Endres of CB East and Jack Wisner of Carlisle. Also
in the mix were Jarrett Raudenski of York Suburban as well as Cameron Binda and
Mark Brown of Greensburg Salem. I really like Greensburg’s squad this year as a
sleeper as well.
2)
North Allegheny guys. I didn’t put any on the list. I
know, its madness. They have consistently produced awesome talents (last year
they had 3 in the top 26 at states … after graduating 3 in the top 26) and will
most likely win the WPIAL and contend for a state title in 2016. But I couldn’t
pick exactly which Tiger I thought was most likely to become this year’s Marc
Migliozzi. The guys in contention would be Mark Hartigan (strong track season),
Zach Dieble (multi time state qualifier and solid on Hershey’s course), TJ
Robinson (rising junior with a lot of talent) and Jacob Greco (one of their top
guys at WPIALs and States last fall). Plus they have a stable of mid distance
talent with potential to surprise. If they have a breakout at the #1 spot, look
out PA.
3)
Independent Leaguers. The non PIAA schools don’t get a
ton of love, but they usually have a lot of talent. This year, I’ve only got
two in my preseason top 50 (and it was almost one honestly). I’m thinking there
will be a breakout star or two in the Independent League this season. Very
curious to see how GFS does this next season as well.
4)
Random people that I could never
have predicted. Even
with a ton of research and dedication to the list, I still always miss people.
Runners with inevitably come from nowhere to make the list at some point during
the season. Again, it’s why this sport is so fun. It would be incredibly boring
if I could predict things perfectly. And, thankfully, it’s never boring. I
actually had a pretty good prediction season a year ago which, if history is
any indication, means this year I will be way off. That’s good news for you as
fans.
So,
ladies and gents, let’s get ready to rrruuummmmbbbblllleeee
Sorry,
just watched Creed last night and I thoroughly enjoyed it. That is all. See you tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment