PA HS XC Top 50: #10-1

by Jarrett Felix

10. Ryan James, Senior Cardinal O'Hara (12 AAA)
In the past two years, Ryan James has grabbed two state medals for O’Hara including a 15^th place finish as a sophomore and 17^th place finish last season (in a faster time of 16:11). During both of those seasons, he also placed in the top 7 at the Foundation Invitational at Hershey, running 16:29 and 16:33. That’s consistent results on the state’s most difficult and most important course. Plus, he placed 15^th at Nike Northeast Regionals in 2015, running ahead of big names like Nick Dahl and Jaxson Hoey. He was 26^th in the same meet in 2014, second among all sophomores.

Historically, Ryan had been more of a cross country runner than track guy until this year. In 2016, he anchored O’Hara to the state title in the indoor DMR, soloing a huge 1600 PR in the process. He followed that with a 9:26 3200m PR at DELCOs.

Cardinal O’Hara has proven itself as one of the top programs in the state and so they are usually a strong bet to have a deep squad with hard workers and top performances. The right team environment can certainly help bring out the best in a top athlete. So although James loses Rob Morro as a training partner, he still should have plenty of company.

9. Zach Lefever, Senior Ephrata (3 AAA)

Lefever was one of the biggest breakout stars of this past XC season, but a bad break with appendicitis caused him to miss the state championships this past fall. That means he’s perhaps the only person in the history of the list to be ranked in the top 10 preseason rankings despite not racing at states the previous season (technically speaking, there are three guys in the top 10 who didn’t compete at a PA XC State Meet last year).

But Zach likely would have been a big factor in the state final. In his races prior to state he finished in the top 5 each time out and ran a PR of 15:46. He was PA’s 3^rd athlete at Paul Short (behind only Matt Kravitz and Griffin Mackey) and within District 3 was only bested by Nate Henderson at Big Spring and LLs. On the track, when he competed in his first state championship of the 2015-2016 season, he had the best race of his career, running 9:19 for 6^th in the hot and tactical 3200. That was a PR for him as well. Dude’s fast and dude’s clutch. And I don’t think you can get appendicitis twice.

8. Spencer Smucker, Junior Henderson (1 AAA)

In 2014, Spencer Smucker joined a very short list of freshman to grab a medal at the state championship. In recent years, the list includes Craig Miller (3x state champion) and Vince McNally (13^th, 3^rd, 5^th, 18^th and a Footlocker Finalist) so naturally expectations would be high in 2015. Further compounding the pressure on Spence was the graduation of his three stud teammates Alex Knapp, Will Swart and Gordy Barchet, meaning Smucker went from being the team’s #4 to the team’s undisputed #1 almost overnight.

 

Despite those obstacles, the Henderson sophomore posted career best marks across the board, including a top 10 finish at districts and a top 15 finish at states. On the track, he grew into a leader as the anchor of the team’s indoor state medal winning Distance Medley and showed great speed in the team’s 4x8 rotation.

 

Now, entering his junior season, Smucker should have an extra level of comfort as a front runner and will enter the 2016 season hungry and confident. The Henderson program has taken their talent and turned it into some pretty special performances, especially in a runner’s junior season. In recent years, Will Kellar went from 17^th as a sophomore to 2^nd at states his junior season. Tony Russell went from 27^th to 1^st and a state record. Chris Aldrich also made a jump from borderline medalist to 4^th in the state from his second to third years while Reiny Barchet capped off his junior campaign as an All-American.

 

There will be no guarantees for Smucker this year and he is in a loaded class of runners, but he’s shown sparks of some big potential. If he can stay healthy and find his groove in training, this kid will be tough to stop on the Hershey hills.

7. Griffin Mackey, Senior Sewickley Academy (7 A)

The past two seasons, Mackey has finished 3^rd and 1^st at the A state championship. He was dominant last year in the A division and rolled to perhaps the most impressive win of the three classifications. He’s a straight killer on the Hershey foundation course as well, in addition to his state win, he also won foundation in 2015 (again by a comfortable margin). Mackey has a great training stable for a small school in Sewickley Academy (back to back WPIAL champs) and showed he was overcoming some injuries from the end of the fall on the track when he placed 2^nd and 5^th in the WPIAL outdoor 1600 and 3200 respectively. He’s also run 9:20 for 3200 and 4:22 for a full mile during his sophomore season, so the talent is there to do something big this year if he stays healthy.

6. Nick Dahl, Senior Germantown Friends (Independent)

Dahl is one of the best track runners in the state. His two mile progression over his first two seasons was monster for a frosh/soph (and his national places reflected that). Then, this past year, Dahl showcased some truly impressive speed. He ran 1:54 in the open 800 and split under 4:10 on his DMR anchor carry at nationals. Considering he’s also run the equivalent of sub 9 for 3200, Dahl has to be a real threat on the XC trails. He won the XC Independent State title last year and also won the Bowdoin XC Classic in New York, but he rarely was matched up PIAA competition in 2015, making his ranking a little tricky. Dahl finished 16^th at Nike Northeast Regionals (right behind Ryan James) and finished 50^th in the Manhattan Invitational (just behind LaSalle’s Eddie Goebel) in his few match ups with the PIAA dudes. This will be his senior year and last chance to prove he’s a national caliber runner on the trials just like he is on the track. That extra spark of motivation (plus a very strong team returning from this past track season) might bring things together for a memorable year.

5. Zach Skolnekovich, Senior Quaker Valley (7 AA)
I think Skolnekovich was one of the most impressive performers of state weekend last year. He ran 15:54 to finish 2^nd in the AA state meet behind only the legend Dominic Hockenbury and he kicked his way by established kicker Matt Kravitz. He has also finished 12^th and 12^th the previous two state finals (as a frosh and soph) and ran away with back to back WPIAL titles as a junior and sophomore (after coming in second as a frosh). And this past year, Zach had easily his best track campaign, dropping all the way down to a consistent sub 9:20 two miler, running PRs at 1600 and 800, and finishing 2^nd again at the AA state championships. In my mind, Skol has the talent to win the AA state title and turn around with a top 20 finish at Footlocker Northeast.

4. Sam Affolder, Sophomore Carlisle (3 AAA)

A sophomore and a senior, new to the PIAA, will join a strong squad and look to help catapult their team to a state championship. The senior is already an accomplished national runner while the freshman is already one of the best ever in his class. If you are experiencing a little déjà vu, that’s perfectly OK. Like the Hoey brothers in 2015, the Affolders are joining the PIAA landscape after moving from New York. I won’t pretend I’m an expert on these guys, but what I’ve seen from them in a few scattered results suggests we could be looking at two all-time PA greats.

 

We start with the youngster Sam. As just a freshman, Sam ran 12:44 at the Manhattan Invitational. That would already slot him the top 15 PA runners on the course in the last decade. He ran 14:58 for 3 miles at the McQuaid Invitational (same time Sam Webb ran his senior season and some 50 seconds faster than A state runner up Noah Curtin last season).  He was 12^th at NY states and then 8^th at NY Federations (a deeper race). He ran 16:12 that weekend on the Bowdoin Park course which, once again, would put him top 15 for PA over the last decade. His track times include a 1:57/4:20 and a jaw dropping 9:16 steeplechase (we don’t run that in PA, but trust me that time is sick).

 

And did I mention he did all that as just a freshman? If that sort of thing happened in PA, he probably would have been knocking on the door for sub 16 at Hershey as a frosh. That’s crazy to think about. This slot might be too low for him honestly. It’s not crazy to think Sam could potentially even win the state title next year.

3. Nathan Henderson, Senior JP McCaskey (3 AAA)

This will be a big year for District 3. They’ve struggled at the AAA state meet in both the team and individual categories in recent years, rarely cracking the top 5 with their best individuals. They’ve had just 3 top 5 individuals over the last 10 seasons (compared to 3 from the smaller district 10 and 10 from the WPIAL). Team wise, they have had 0 top 5 teams in the last 10 seasons. However, this year District 3 has 4 runners ranked in the top 9 (district 1 has 2) and may have the top ranked team in the state as well (tune in early next month).

The dominant force in District 3 a season ago was Nate Henderson. He crushed every XC course he saw and was only defeated by the Hoeys, Brophy and Wolk prior to Footlocker Regionals. He obliterated the course record on Big Spring and ran a monster 15:53 at Hershey. He was the top junior in the state title field just a year after being the top sophomore. Then on the track, he was PA’s top runner the Penn Relays, nearly upset the field in the indoor 3k, and ran 1:53/4:14/8:24. Wow.

But Henderson will have his hands full with the Affolder brothers coming in from Carlisle to try and break up his run of dominance in District 3. Nate will try to hold his ground with a little extra experience on the PA courses and that extra motivation that comes from his 9^th place finish in the outdoor 3200. One thing we know about Nate is that he won’t back down to any other runner in the country on race day.  

2. Josh Hoey, Junior Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)

Any way you slice it, he’s one of the most accomplished sophomores in state history. Last year he was 3^rd at both districts and states (running sub 15:50 in his first ever trip to Hershey) and was the #1 man for DT West at Manhattan and Regionals (both races they won against out of state competition). He is the top returner from the state championship last fall and only bolstered his resume with a big upset win at the Penn Relays and a pair of top 3 finishes in the mile at states. He will lose perhaps his best asset in training partner Jaxson Hoey (graduated this past season and will attend PSU), but his younger brother Jonah will enter the fray and try to pick up the slack. Remember, he is only now making the sophomore to junior jump. Hard to remember at this point. After a top 10 finish at NXN Regionals last year, it looks like the goals will be state and regional championships for this junior heading into 2016.

1. Noah Affolder, Senior Carlisle (3 AAA)

In all of my years of making this list, there has never been a more accomplished number one runner on this list. The closest thing to Affolder in the last decade or so of returners is probably Tony Russell (won states and regionals as a junior). But Affolder amazingly outshines even Russell in resume. Noah won Footlocker Regionals last year (over one of our greatest ever in Jake Brophy), ran 4:07 for the mile and 8:47 for 3200. Right there, you’ve got three things that no PA runner has done in nearly 2 years. He’s run 12:14 for 4k, 14:14 for 3 mile, won his New York State Champs and finished 2^nd in the NY Federation Championship (I think this is like meet of champs with the divisions combined after states?). He capped his XC year with a win at regionals and a 15^th place finish at Footlocker (4^th returner in the country).

He will have to adjust to a variety of new courses, training partners and challenges. But this guy is a unique talent that should be a ton of fun to watch. Can he get the 15:24 course record from Brophy this season? Will he lead Carlisle to the state title? Or will someone else rise to outduel the newcomer?

Only one way to find out. Welcome to the 2016 PA XC Season.