By: Garrett Zatlin
As a writer and a fan, I can't help but enjoy cross country more than track. It seems like a lot more can happen over an 8k or 10k than it can over 800 meters. Weather, temperature, altitude, terrain, and difficulty level of a course can all contribute to making races exciting and filled with surprises. As fans, all we can do is speculate.
Last year, I decided to copy the great Jarrett "Etrain" Felix and make a top 50 list of my own for the NCAA. The 2015 list beat expectations and constantly drove in a solid amount of readers from around the nation. Now, with the help and criticism of my fellow writers, I have prepped and readied the list for reading and discussion. My ETA for the first part of the Top 50 release? Monday, July 25th. Get your popcorn ready.
So what can we expect from the list? Let's follow last year's format...
Just Missed (in no particular order)
-Alex Short (San Francisco)
-Benjamin Preisner (Tulsa)
-Antibahs Kosgei (Alabama)
-John Whelan (Washington State)
-Sherod Hardt (Michigan State)
-Connor McMillan (BYU)
-Wes Gallagher (Missisippi)
Of these seven, Alex Short was probably the closest to making the list. Last fall, Short went largely unnoticed most likely due to his small school status and deep competition out west. The British graduate student made the most out of his first season with SFU as he put together a 5th place finish at Roy Griak and a 4th place finish at the West Coast Conference meet (which included teams like BYU and Portland). Short was one of the four individual qualifiers out of the West region to make NCAA's. Unfortunately, Short would fail to finish at nationals after sustaining an injury at the 5k mark. Still, Short finished last season giving off the impression that he could still enter this season as a national contender.
Ben Preisner is another name that I really like. As a sophomore, he finished 27th overall at Wisconsin and took down a bunch of names that would end up making this year's top 50 list. Other great races like his 11th place finish at regionals (Mid-West) and 2nd place finish at AAC's (American Athletic Conference) make him a name to watch this season.
Others like Kosgei and Gallagher are super talented, but come from such a weak conference and region that it's hard to really give them a lot of credit for beating lesser talented individuals. It's also hard to gage where Gallagher is at when you consider that he only ran one race last fall.
Of course, the best part of predictions and rankings is being able to point out the guys who will have breakout seasons and establish their name amongst some of the best. Right now, these guys don't quite have the credentials to make the list. However, these are some of the names that I believe will have a shot at making the top 50 at one point or another this fall.
Who To Watch (in no particular order)
-Tanner Anderson (Oregon)
-Matthew Maton (Oregon)
-Colin Abert (Penn State)
-Jesse Reiser (Illinois)
-Elijah Armstrong (Boise State)
-Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma)
-Stephen Muhlrein (UNC-Chapel Hill)
The first thing that may pop out at you is the fact that five of the seven names listed are all rising sophomores. Maybe I listed them because all five of them were well-known names nationally during their high school careers. Or maybe I'm just anticipating a big improvement as they go from inexperienced freshmen to talented sophomores.
The two Ducks, Tanner Anderson and Matthew Maton, showed promise last year as they were both able to become scorers on a deep Oregon team. Maton was 9th at the Washington Invite and 17th at PAC 12's. Anderson didn't always place as well as Maton, but was able to race in many more competitive meets and used that experience at nationals to place 56th.
The other rising sophomores weren't as consistent as Maton or Anderson, but were able to race often and grab at least one solid race throughout their freshman cross country seasons. Reiser at BIG 10's, Abert at regionals (Mid-Atlantic), and Armstrong at NCAA's were all times when they showed promise. It also doesn't hurt that all three of them ran under 14:20 for the 5k this past spring.
I think guys like Blankenbaker and Muhlrein will be important names to watch as more pressure will be on them to perform now that talented leaders like Doughty (Oklahoma) and Derrick (UNC) have graduated. I also like Blankenbaker for the fact that he did so well in the steeplechase this past track season. Steeplechasers have done notoriously well during cross country, so for him to become an All-American in the event makes him a sleeper pick for this upcoming XC season.
So now that we've handled all the names that aren't on the list, what is the grade distribution of the Top 50 like?
Totals By Class (Classified under eligibility, not academic year)
27 Seniors
17 Juniors
6 Sophomores
0 Freshmen
These were pretty good numbers for the sophomores and juniors. Last year, the Top 50 included only 4 sophomores and 16 juniors. It's not a big jump, but the younger guys seem to be a bit more talented than we are used to seeing. Then again, there aren't any freshmen listed. Had Drew Hunter not gone pro, I would've had him around the 25 to 35 range.
But what if we were to break it down by region? Here are the numbers...
Totals By Region
West: 10
Southeast: 8
Mountain: 8
Northeast: 7
Mid-West: 5
Great Lakes: 4
Mid-Atlantic: 4
South Central: 3
South: 1
Last year, it was the Mountain region that I estimated being on top. Now, I'm predicting that the depth in the West region will be dominant. However, what's really interesting is seeing the Great Lakes region drop from 8 men in the Top 50 last year, to only 4 this year. The South and South Central regions continue to be weak as many of those programs are centered around their sprinting talents during track season.
So just like last year, I'll leave you with some questions...
-Which team will have the most men in the Top 50?
-Who will be the biggest bust/surprise this season?
-Which region will be better ranked by the end of the season?
-Who is your top 10?
Get ready for July 28th!
Garrett
looking forward to it
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