XC Debut: District 3 Preview

by Blake Behney

Hello everyone. Given that this is my first post, I thought I’d stick to writing about what I know best: District 3. Here is my take on what is expected to be an interesting season of cross country in one of the state’s more formidable districts. Something to keep in mind while reading this is that I don’t just judge the performances of these athletes based on cross country. Their performances this past track season play a significant role in my evaluation.

Class A

Individual
With last year’s top 3 finishers having graduated, the individual district title is seemingly Ian Gabig of Camp Hill’s for the taking. He is the top returner from last year’s district race (and the only returner to have broken 17 minutes) and made huge strides this past spring as part of CH’s state medaling 4x8 and 4x4. Gabig split 1:58 in the state final to go along with a 52 second 4x4 leg. Given the range he’s demonstrated, it’s easy to think that with continued, consistent training he’ll do just fine and grab his first individual cross country state medal (he finished in the dreaded 26th spot at last year’s state meet). Besides Gabig, the other most likely contenders seem to be York Catholic’s Evan Schlosser (who apparently does not run track) and Camp Hill’s Dan Shank. Don’t be surprised if the race comes down to Shank and Gabig battling it out for district gold. Shank has proven himself as Gabig’s long distance counterpart. He ran 2 flat in the 800 this year and 4:40 for the 1600 the only time he ran a mile all season (at a dual meet). I watched him hang with XC state medalist Will Greene for much of the 3200 at last season’s Arctic Blast Invite as well. Having been teammates with both of them for the past couple of years, I know that these guys are willing to scrap and compete with each other, which should make for an interesting race.

More Runners To Watch: Someone to keep an eye is Morgan Morrison from West Shore Christian. He’s run 4:31 at districts in the 1600 (tantalizing close to qualifying for AA states in track) and low 2:00s for 800. Also, he’s qualified for states individually the past two seasons in XC and, despite never really putting it all together on the grass, could be a threat.

Team

Just like in the individual preview, the team race is all about Camp Hill. I swear this isn’t hometown bias; the fact is that, on paper, the Lions are significantly better than every other team they’re up against. Whether they’ll set the district record for lowest point total for the third straight year in a row is what’s up in the air. Despite losing two really low sticks, the Lions should be just fine with Gabig and Shank leading the charge. Plus, Coach Haywood’s history of helping his athletes drop major time in a relatively quick fashion bodes well for this team’s chances. A runner to keep an eye on is Matt Little. He was their #6 guy last year as a dual-sport athlete who also plays on the soccer team. Little has demonstrated a real natural talent on the grass, and with an increased workload this summer he should definitely surprise some people. As for second place in the team race, it seems like every year Tulpehocken finishes behind the Lions. I foresee that happening this year as well. Disappointedly for them, D3 Class A only offers one state team berth. 

Class AA

Individual
While only the top 3 finishers from last year’s Class A race were seniors, a whopping 7 top finishers moved on since last year’s AA race. That leaves our top returner as Jarrett Raudensky, a rising sophomore from York Suburban. Besides having a great head of hair, Raudensky proved he was pretty great at the running thing too after a 17:09 at states and 2 flat multiple times in the 800 this past track season (although I’m almost certain he ran a sub-2 split while anchoring Suburban’s relay). But, Raudensky is not the top returner based on state finish. That honor goes to his teammate, Bryce Ohl. Ohl proved himself as arguably his team’s best distance runner this spring, running 4:33 for 1600 and 16:44 last season in XC. At this point, these two seem almost interchangeable. But, I would have to give the edge to Ohl at this point given his consistency and the fact that he’s entering his junior year, which is when many runners make their most significant improvement. However, my personal upset pick/runner to keep an eye on comes from Wyomissing. And his name is Joe Cullen. Joe has been an absolute savage on the oval, having run 1:54 while anchoring Wyo’s 4x8 at states and 4:25 for 1600 meters. He also runs a leg on their 4x4. Cullen has great range, and is entering his junior season, which could have him primed for a further breakout this fall. At this point, it’s seemingly all mental for him. And if he can gain that mental edge, then I believe there’s a strong chance that the district title stays in Wyomissing for another year.

More Runners To Watch: These guys may not necessarily be considered “big” names, but they’re all
legit with a lot of potential to improve. Trinity’s Will Bucher was just a freshman last season, but he performed like a seasoned veteran at districts when he led Trinity to a state berth alongside teammate Matt Geisler, a rising senior. Additionally, both runners ran on Trinity’s 4x8 this spring, which placed 9th. Besides those two, Suburban’s Peter Wagner should be in the mix near the front as well.

Team

Although Suburban loses a key low stick with the graduation of Donovan Mears, the Trojans should be just fine when it comes to defending their district team title. Although it won’t be as much of a blowout as the Class A race, Suburban has repeatedly proven that no matter who they have running, they can almost always put together a tight spread and contend for a district title and beyond. As for the rest of the state qualifying spots (Class AA has 3 total), Trinity is the clear-cut second best team. Their core of youngsters, coupled with the fact that they didn’t lose any key guys other than Chase Drawbaugh makes me think that there is no reason that they shouldn’t outperform their performance from this past season. As for our final spot, I’m going to go ahead and predict that it will end up being occupied by Boiling Springs, just like last year. I really wanted to go with Palmyra as a wildcard selection, but BoSprings has a pack that I simply cannot overlook. In all honesty, the Class AA third team spot is extremely wide-open and it’s really hard for me to pick a team.

Class AAA

Individual
Before this preview, I thought that the Class AAA individual title would be the easiest to predict. “Well, nobody from D3 is beating Nathan Henderson” I smugly thought to myself. It hadn’t crossed my mind at that point that Noah and Sam Affolder were transferring to Carlisle and competing in D3 this upcoming fall. That made my preview significantly easier. Look, Henderson is a great talent and will almost certainly run at a major D1 program in college. On the track he boasts PRs of 4:14 for 1600, 8:24 for 3k (converts to roughly 9 minutes flat for a 3200), and a 1:53 800 to boot. Oh, we haven’t even gotten to XC where he owns the district course record at Big Spring with a 15:38 and placed 5th at States with a sub-16 minute mark at Parkview. Despite all of that, there’s no way in my mind that he’ll beat Noah Affolder. Affolder, a Syracuse commit and rising senior, is simply on another level. In XC, he placed 2nd this year at states behind Aidan Tooker, another future Orangeman and an incredible talent in his own right. However, he turned it up a notch at the Foot Locker Northeast Regional meet, which he won in a PR of 15:23. Later he went on to finish 15th in the Foot Locker finals. So, clearly, he’s a notch above Henderson without even taking into account his track credentials. Affolder boasts PR’s of 4:09 for the indoor Mile, 9:06 for 3k Steeple, and to top it all off, an 8:47 3200 which is well under the state record. So, based purely off of PRs, Henderson simply is a tier below Affolder. The wildcard in this situation is the younger Affolder, Sam. He displayed crazy talent as a freshman last season, running 15:48 in XC. I wouldn’t be surprised if he beats Henderson this season, granted he would have to progress a lot, but he is just a rising sophomore. 

More Runners To Watch: Outside of the Affolders and Henderson, District 3 AAA still has some guys who are pretty quick on the trails. Zach Lefever of Ephrata will almost certainly be mixing it up with the top names. Last season’s district runner up missed XC states with an emergency appendectomy, but made up for it in a big way this past track season by placing 6th in the 3200 at states. Expect to see him on the state podium again this fall. As for others, keep an eye on this Mid Penn crew: Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko of Mechanicsburg, Kyler Shea and Colten Cassel of Lower Dauphin, and Isaac Kole of Carlisle. All of these guys were either studs on the trails last season or had strong track seasons which should set them up for success this upcoming fall.

Team

Unlike the other classifications, I am predicting that the team title in AAA will not have a repeat champion. I still think Hempfield will qualify for the state meet, but the loss of Justin Yurchak will be tough to overcome. Carlisle is my pick to take the district title. The addition of the Affolders, plus the continued development of guys like Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner have the Herd positioned to win not just the district meet, but potentially the state meet as well. I am also predicting that they will have 4 individual medalists at the district meet in both Affolders, Kole, and Wisner.

As for second place, my pick is Lower Dauphin. Despite finishing just 9th a year ago, two factors make it seem likely that LD will be just fine this time around. First, they return all of their top 7 from last season, including a sick top 3 of Kyler Shea, Colten Cassel, and Jared Giannascoli. Second, their 4x8 nearly broke the 8 minute barrier and qualified for states this past track season (without Cassel or Shea on the relay), which bodes well on the distance side of things. And finally, Coach Butler historically gets the most out of his athletes and knows what it take to compete on the big stage. I have Hempfield taking the 3rd team spot, which means the 4th spot goes to...Mechanicsburg? Yup, Mechanicsburg, the team that finished 12th at last year’s district meet, but returns their entire top 7 and has arguably one of the best top 3’s in the entire district in the form of Morgan Cupp, Alex Tomasko, and Andrew Sulon. After having great track seasons which saw both of them run under 4:30 in the 1600 (Tomasko qualified for states) and make major improvements across the board, both runners look poised to join Cupp among the district’s elite. They also had a freshman, Brendan Knepper, run 17:32 at districts last year and should continue to progress, forming a formidable top 4. Throw in the fact that they consistently have one of the best middle school programs around, and there’s reason to buy in on the Wildcats’ chances.