etrain11: the aftermath

12. Wisconsin Badgers

Flotrack’s #12: Virginia Cavaliers
Flotrack's Ranking of Wisconsin: 8th
Coach: Mick Byrne

Notable Departures: N/A

Notable Additions: Oliver Hoare

Projected Scoring Five: Malachy Schrobilgen (SR) [ET#12], Morgan McDonald (JR) [ET#21], Zack Snider (FR), Olin Hacker (FR), Joe Hardy (JR)

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Collapse is a strong word. It insinuates that there was a lack of foundation, flaws in the master design, and something happened that did not go as planned. Yet, maybe a word like "collapse" is the most accurate description to what happened to Wisconsin during last year's cross country season.

When the 2015 season began, it seemed like Wisconsin was well on their way to making yet another national championship (and very few doubted it). Their season began at meets like the Paddy Doyle Invite and the Greater Louisville Classic. It was there that the Badgers would take their race as workouts while also catching criticism for their lack of effort in the process.

But when the Badgers held the Wisconsin invite on their own turf, they were left off the leash and ready to attack the field. Wisconsin was expected to contend with Syracuse for the team title...not finish 17th in the field. Despite Schrobilgen and McDonald both placing in the top 10, the rest of the squad struggled. For some reason, Wisconsin only ran five guys and with their 5th man placing 205th, it did not make life easy. The Wisconsin Invite was a mess, but every team has a bad race. Surely they would do better at BIG 10's, right?

Wrong.

BIG 10's was arguably worse than the Wisconsin Invite as Schrobilgen pulled out of the race which led to the Badgers finishing 8th overall (out of 12 teams). Would Wisconsin really not qualify for nationals? Would they really snap the largest active national appearance streak in the nation? The answer to that was a yes. Schrobilgen tried to fight through his injury but he could only push himself to 33rd. The other scorers ended up in the 64th and 73rd spots. For the first time in 44 years, the Wisconsin Badgers would not qualify for nationals as a team.

Wisconsin not qualifying was an unexpected and unprecedented result, but there were legitimate reasons for their struggles. The biggest one had to be the lack of experience, depth, and consistency at the four and five spots. It also didn't help that their best runner (and one of the best runners in the nation) was hurt for the entire post-season. The decision to use meets like Paddy Doyle and Greater Louisville as workouts also backfired since the Badgers failed to get themselves any points on the Kolas Calculator.

History is an important aspect when talking about the future. But how much value should we put into what happened last year when it was the first time it happened in 44 years? Clearly not that much value if I'm ranking the Badgers at 12th this season. However, I am staying cautious.

There's no doubt that Schrobilgen and McDonald will lead this team once again. It's a fair and safe assumption that they will be in top 10 at pretty much every meet they run in (maybe not nationals). If no complications like injury or illness arise, then these two might be able to battle with the Syracuse and CSU duo's as the best 1-2 punch in the country.

I'm giving the third spot to Joe Hardy. Despite his inconsistencies, he definitely has the talent to be a top 50 runner in the nation. Will that happen? I don't know. But what I do know is that he placed 10th at BIG 10's which is a strong indicator of what he's capable of. The biggest issue with him is that he needs to be more consistent. He had an off day at Wisconsin, and his regionals performance was decent (but no better than that). If he can consistently put together races like he did at BIG 10's, then he will undoubtedly help the Badgers get back to nationals.

And while it may be one thing to make nationals, it's another thing to do well there. That's where guys like Zack Snider and Olin Hacker come into play. Although they were redshirted during XC last year, these two were a pair of the best recruits in the nation in 2015. We saw that they were the real deal this past spring when Snider and Hacker both ran big 5k PR's of 14:06 and 14:18 respectively. They both did that at the Junior World Championships.

There is no doubt that these guys are good, but can they be reliable in their first actual year of cross country? It's the biggest concern and question I have for Wisconsin in 2016. It is, after all, the main reason Wisconsin struggled all last year.

But Wisconsin still has options after Snider and Hacker. Joe McAsey, Russell Sandvold, and incoming Australian recruit Oliver Hoare could all have a big impact for Wisconsin this season.

Wisconsin ranking 12th is definitely me being on the safer side, but I like to think there is plenty of upside for this Badgers squad. Schrobilgen will be back at full strength and McDonald might be even better than last year. Hardy is now an experienced junior, and there are two redshirt freshmen with all of the upside and potential in the world.

As Thomas Jefferson once said, "I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past".

Team Titles Revisited: 2007

2007 State Championships

by Jarrett Felix

In 2006, Coatesville cemented its legacy as the greatest cross country team in state history. However, when their top 5 runners graduated, it opened the door for a new team to emerge as state title winners. But who could do it? Henderson, who had been second at states, graduated their 3-5 runners. Strath Haven (3^rd) graduated their 1, 3, 4, 5. WC East graduated 2-5. But the 5^th place team, North Allegheny, returned six of their top 7 including their first three runners to cross the line at Hershey. Plus, they were set to get back Patrick Morgan who had medaled for the Tigers at the 2005 state championships.

The WPIAL got a ton of love in the preseason rankings as Seneca Valley got a #4 ranking and Mount Lebanon got a #5 to go with North Allegheny’s #1 according to PTXC. Both teams returned four of their top five runners from teams that had placed in the top 10 overall the previous season. As for district one, who had accounted for 6 of the top 7 teams in the overall standings at states, no team returned a ton of firepower and so Upper Dublin, who had not even qualified for states the previous year, earned the #3 overall spot in the PTXC rankings. Henderson, Horsham, Coatesville and North Penn also joined them on in the rankings. North Penn returned their entire top 5 from a year previously, but had been just 14^th in the district. The others were state qualifiers from the previous season and XC powerhouses.

But North Penn quickly proved they belonged. In their first race of the season, the Knights rolled to an upset victory at the Briarwood Invitational. They defeated Holy Ghost Prep and Upper Dublin in impressive fashion, placing three runners in the top 10 overall at the deep meet. Zach Hoagland led the way with a thrilling 15:49 on the difficult lay out, just behind Chris Bodary’s record setting performance.

North Allegheny’s first big win would come soon after. They traveled to Hershey for the first ever Foundation Invitational: a preview of the Hershey Parkview course. The race was separated into “Gold” and “Blue” classifications and the top teams, North Allegheny and the surprising Holy Ghost Prep, were in separate classifications. In merged results, NA barely edged out Prep with a score of 137 to their opponents 138. North East, a AA squad, finished 3^rd in the merged standings ahead of Hatboro Horsham. It was a nice win for the Tigers, but a bigger result for HGP who had now acquitted itself well in back to back major invitationals. Both squads were geared up to take on North Penn, Upper Dublin and more at the upcoming Carlisle Invitational the next weekend.

A week removed from their Foundation victories, NA and Prep struggled at Carlisle. A few Tigers missed the start of the race and as a result NA placed 0 runners in the top 15 of the team standings. Matt Jacob, a defending state medalist and consistent leader on the team, finished in just 34^th overall. So, despite a strong pack, NA didn’t have the front running presence they were hoping for which left the door open for an upset. And the upset was delivered by the boys from North Penn. Behind Hoagland’s 15:40 runner up finish, north Penn cruised to a big win with 48 points. They placed 3 in the top 6 and five in the top 25. Upper Dublin finished in 2^nd place with 76 points and then NA earned bronze with a 127. Coatesville quietly finished 3th with a respectable 143 points and beat the darlings of the early season HG Prep (173).

North Penn only continued to roll from there. They won the D Race at the prestigious Manhattan Invitational with an absurd 12:57.1 average. PTXC said it was the 2^nd fastest team average in the meets history. They also crushed the Suburban One League competition and set themselves up well for the district championships. Upper Dublin was hungry to try and run them down after winning their own league, but it would definitely be an uphill battle.

Meanwhile, District 3’s Cumberland Valley was beginning to pick up steam. They were the #2 squad for PA at the Paul Short Invitational (behind non-PIAA Germantown Friends) and won the prestigious Mid Penn Invitational in style. They had carved out a niche for themselves in the PTXC rankings and even moved ahead of North Allegheny in the team rankings. But the District 3 Championships may have crippled any hopes CV had of competing for a state medal. After storms pushed the meet back to October 28^th (just 6 days before states), sloppy conditions led to a wild race. Cumberland Valley finished 3^rd in the district with 129 points, defeated by Cedar Crest and Red Land. Only two runners bested the 17 minute mark on the course and just 26 broke 18 minutes. The difficult conditions also put the D3 boys in a physical hole heading back to Hershey for states.

Across the state in both directions, the favorites were asserting themselves across the state. North Allegheny won both the Tri State Invitational as well as the WPIAL title, picking up solid wins over top pursuers Seneca Valley and North Hills. North Hills beat SV at Tri-States and finished just 4 points behind the PTXC ranked squad at WPIALs, thanks in part to the excellent performances of their two stud freshman, Juris Silenieks and Joe Kush who were the team’s 1-2 punch at Tri-States when they won silver over SV. The WPIAL champs also debuted a strong freshman of their own. Ryan Gil placed 26^th at the D7 Champs and finished as the team’s 5^th scorer.

However, District One, with perhaps the fastest course and best competition of all the district layouts, stole the show as usual. North Penn put on a clinic, scoring 92 points and defeating a great effort from Upper Dublin by 78. North Penn did it with Brad Miles, a sophomore, running as their #1 with a 15:24. Four of their runners broke 16 minutes and their #5 crossed in 16:05. That would be tough to beat, even for a UD team with 4 under 16:10. The usual contenders, Coatesville, CR North and Horsham, all qualified for states as well in spots 3-5, Coatesville scoring 222 and North posting a 244. HG Prep got the 6^th and final qualifying spot for states.

Heading to Hershey, it was believed that North Penn and Upper Dublin were nearly assured a 1-2 finish. Some put stock in North Allegheny, but the fast times seen at Lehigh, combined with the teams’ finishes at Carlisle, had really made a statement. At the one mile mark of the state championships, those thoughts were justified. North Penn raced out to the lead with 95 points and UD trailed slightly at 108. Then North Allegheny hung tough in 3^rd with 110 points. Although UD was leading, their #6 and #7 runners were in the 100s for team scoring so any small slip would be costly. North Allegheny, on the other hand, had all 7 runners in the top 50 of team scoring.

HG Prep was in 4^th thanks to an ambitious start from their front three and then Coatesville was in 5^th with 173 points. The pace was incredibly fast early on. The leaders hit the mile in 4:38, 32 runners were out under 4:50 and 100^th place was 5:01.

The two mile splits for many runners were missing, but the results at the finish showed a surprising flip. Upper Dublin’s #4 and #5 runners slipped slightly in the field over the final mile opening the door for teams to slip by them and fight for the silver medals. But North Penn didn’t slip as their front runners actually moved up farther through the field en route to a 90 point performance.

The battle for second ended up being a two team race. North Allegheny placed two runners in the top 12 overall and got a huge lift from freshman Ryan Gil who finished as the team’s #3 runner in 25^th for team scoring. That breakthrough could have potentially been enough to get on the podium, but the defending state champions had something to say about it. Coatesville stunned with a big final stretch to score 107 points and edge out NA by just 3. Their sophomore Billy Hackmeister had a massive breakthrough to finish 57^th at states after taking 68^th at Districts. That helped pull teammate Bryan Wolf to a huge day as he was 59^th at both states and districts. Even after losing their top 5 runners, Coatesville proved they belonged among the best in the state and stunned the field to get silvers and come within just 17 points of back to back golds.

Making their own improbable run to the finish, the boys from Seneca Valley threw down a stunning jump over the final 2 miles. They moved from 13^th to 4^th over those approximately 11 minutes, led by Cam Stauffer and Chris Cipro’s huge jump into the medals. That and a solid performance from sophomore Andrew Razanauskas gave the team a strong pack and jumped them 35 points ahead of Upper Dublin who finished in 5^th.

Just like in 2009, one of the best teams in the state was absent from the State Championships. Germantown Friends, led by future indoor state and national champ Max Kaulbach, were rolling through their competition during the season and hoping to qualify for the Nike Cross Nationals meet in Portland. They had a very talented top 3 as well as an up and coming #4 runner in sophomore Gus McKenzie. At the regional championships, we got to see just how they stacked up against PA’s state champs North Penn. This time, unlike ’09, the PIAA squad got the victory as North Penn defeated GFS 106 to 165. Unfortunately, neither team made it to the national championships as they finished 4^th and 5^th in the final standings.

Is The Hershey Course ... Too Easy?

By etrain11

They say absence makes the heart grow fonder. But sometimes absence just makes the heart find someone new to love. It’s now officially been over a month since I posted the last of my Top 50 Rankings and in that time, you’ve probably found a new friend in Blake Behney and rekindled an old flame with Forrest Kentwell. But I’m hoping, as the calendar flips from August to September, you may consider taking me back. Or at least let me take you out for ice cream. It’s free you know.

While Blake has been diligently researching to plan for the future with his team rankings, I’ve been awarded the luxury of free time to write about whatever I want. That’s been the Olympics (sort of, there are way more events than I ever imagined), that’s been The Running Diaries and, most recently, it’s been state championship history. I’m assuming that, because none of you are my mother or Garrett Zatlin, you probably haven’t read most of these posts. That’s understandable. I tend to drone on for a while without ever getting to the point. As you may have noticed.

But what I learned from the extra hours of research (besides the fact that I have odd choices for how to spend my free time) is that the Hershey course, the once frightening and oppressive beast, has lost some of its edge. Heck, I’m not even sure it smells as bad at Poop Out Hill as it used to. So I’m sitting here and asking you Pennsylvania, have we figured out how to beat the chocolate town’s golf course? And if we have … is it time to pick a new home for our state’s most enjoyable state championship?

So let’s just back up real quick. Spare me a quick moment’s history. In 2006, we had a Hershey Parkview lay out. In 2007, we made a slightly harder version. Then, in 2008, we debuted the current model. Everything from 2008 on has been “apples to apples” (this is one of my favorite adult business person phrases), meaning we can compare everything directly without adjustment.

Although, I’m not sure this phrase makes sense, I can compare oranges and apples just fine … but probably a discussion for another day. Getting back on track now …

It’s been 8 seasons now on the Poop Out lay-out. I’ve gone on record as saying how awesome that is as we have the chance to compare across multiple eras. For stat geeks and history buffs, having the state course in the same place is undeniably ideal. But a stat geek or a history buff can also see very quickly the times are trending downward in a hurry.

Let’s take a quick look:

2008

Average Time for AAA State Champs: 16:55

Average Time for AA State Champs: 17:41

Average Time for AAA 5^th Place Team: 17:18

AAA/AA 1^st – 16:10/16:18

AAA/AA 25^th– 16:50/17:21

AAA/AA 50^th – 17:11/17:45

2015

Average Time for AAA State Champs: 16:09

Average Time for AA State Champs: 17:15

Average Time for AAA 5^th Place Team: 16:55

AAA/AA 1^st – 15:39/15:49

AAA/AA 25^th– 16:19/16:53

AAA/AA 50^th – 16:43/17:20

Worth noting, those AA drops came despite the fact that the small school classification was essentially ripped in two when we switched to a three classification system in 2012.

In 2009, we saw the first sub 16s on this course from Brad Miles and Rad Gunzenhauser. In 2010, we saw five more guys dip under. After a blip in 2011, 2012 featured four sub 16, including the first outside AAA. Then 2013 had another three before 2014 and 2015 brought the house down. In 2014, there were TEN under 16 and then, a year later, there were another TWELVE. That’s 22 in the past two seasons after just 14 in the previous 6 seasons combined. After jaw dropping years from 2012 through 2015, things have to finally slow down in 2016, right? Or is there any chance we could see 16 sub 16 in ‘16? OK, actually I want that one. That one sounds cool.

Did you know that Jimmy Tarsnane’s winning time in 2008 would have been about 20^th in merged results for 2015. That’s a crazy fact for anyone inside that top 20 without state gold. Now to be fair, there’s more variables that go into this equation (he types as he pushes up his glasses on his nose). There’s things like weather and level of competition for starters (2015 was such a good year the 15^th fastest runner from states, Kent Hall, made nationals as an individual). I was there in 2008 and I was there in 2015 and the temperature was very different. Plus, as you may have noticed from All Decade Team, Jake Brophy is one of our best ever and having him help set the pace for back to back championships (right after Tony Russell I might add), has to count for something.

But there’s also elements like pacing, additional confidence and better coaching that have improved over time and led to better times. That comes from having years of experience on a course and takes some of the variability out of what used to be the most wildly unpredictable meet of the year (Outdoor States was easily the most wildly unpredictable meet of the year in 2015-2016. What happened to you XC?).

Just look quickly at the upsets. Guys are bringing their “A Game” to the state meet in recent year’s like they haven’t quite been able to in the past. I’d say I have a reasonably strong grasp on who the pre-race favorites were during each of the last 8 state championships (not to brag). So let’s take a look, just at AAA for now, at a quick tally of upsets, mild surprises, less obvious picks and obvious picks.

Teams

Upsets – 2008, 2011

Mild Surprises – 2012

Less Obvious – 2009, 2014

Obvious – 2010, 2013, 2015

Individuals

Upsets – 2008, 2010, 2011

Mild Surprises – 2012, 2014

Obvious – 2009, 2013, 2015

You can argue over the semantics, sure but we’ve seen a lot of big favorites winning in recent years and not a ton of upsets. Part of that is, again, the cast of talent we’ve seen. But part of it may be because guys are learning how to excel on this course. Those pivotal “off days” that used to swing state championships that used to be a fact of the meet are turning up less and less on the Hershey hills.

It’s interesting, last year at states I got the chance to talk briefly with a bunch of different teams. One of them was the silver medal winners, North Allegheny. I remember saying to them, “You know, this course is so difficult. You’re basically guaranteed to have at least one off day.”

And then one of the Tigers very politely responded, “Yeah … but, actually, we didn’t really have any.” And I thought about it, and realized they were right. In fact, you can make a strong argument that over the past three seasons they really haven’t had any off days. It’s kind of wild. Especially when you consider that North Allegheny was one of the victims to one of the biggest surprises in recent history in 2008 when LaSalle jumped them during their NXN year (shameless plug, I just posted about this recently).

Because here’s the bottom line. Having upsets may make things more fun, but we ultimately want the best teams and individuals to do well at states. We want to reward the hardest working and most talented performers. If we increase the variability too much, we will introduce a level of randomness to a sport that, in theory, should be one of the simplest out there.

Off days happen. There’s no getting around it. But I’m not going to sit here and root for off days to happen. I want to see everyone at their absolute best on State Championship Saturday this year. And whether the winning time in 15:20 or 17:20, if all the athletes leave knowing they put everything they could into the race and into the season, then I think we will have had a fantastic state championship.

But also, #16sub16in16 could be a really cool hashtag that would be a lot of fun. So maybe I’ll cut the touchy feel good stuff and just root hard core for fast times and that’s it. I’m no hip, young whipper snapper (clearly, considering I just said whipper snapper), but I think hashtags may be our ticket to getting to the blog to #8.

Stay classy and enjoy the classes.

Train

PS Check back tomorrow night for my AAA sleeper picks ... if you are into that sort of thing ...

2016 Etrain Team Power Rankings: #13 BYU Cougars

By: Garrett Zatlin

13. BYU Cougars

Flotrack’s #13: Mississippi Rebels
Flotrack's Ranking of BYU: 14th
Coach: Ed Eyestone

Notable Departures: Aaron Fletcher, Nicholas Montanez, Dylan Shawhan

Notable Additions: Will Handley

Projected Scoring Five: Dallin Farnsworth (SO) [ET#31], Connor McMillan (JR), Rory Linkletter (SO), Dallin Taylor (JR), Spencer Hanson (JR)

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How ridiculous is it that Flotrack ranked Ole Miss 13th in the nation? Did they see what happened last year? Do they realize that they're filled with milers? Their track performances were impressive, but 13th in the nation? I'm not buying it.

But this post isn't about Ole Miss, it's about the BYU Cougars. Somehow, someway the Cougars are consistently able to be one of the best teams in the nation. It's one thing for teams like Oregon and Stanford to be consistently good, but BYU will often lose runners for a year when those runners decide to go on mission trips. Those guys leaving in addition to the guys that graduate doesn't make things easy on BYU. And this year? Things are no different, as three scorers from last year's team have left.

It's not unsurprising for BYU to consistently be a top 25 team. But for them to be as good as they were in 2015 wasn't exactly expected. Most people expected senior Aaron Fletcher to be the leader of the Cougars last fall, but the emergence of freshman Dallin Farnsworth created a different narrative. The Erik Anderson Invite started off with Farnsworth getting his first collegiate win and led BYU to an easy win. The real challenge, however, would be at the Washington Invite where teams such as Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, and many more would attend. Yet, it was the Cougars who would stay poised and place three guys in the top 10. Unfortunately, Oregon and Stanford were just too deep and BYU would still finish in a very respectable 3rd place.

But things weren't going to get any easier at Wisconsin. It was a huge field with top-tier talent. Farnsworth wouldn't be able to keep up...right? Wrong. Farnsworth was the pleasant surprise of meet as he placed 16th overall in what was arguably the best race of his season. Fletcher followed behind in 18th. BYU ended up as the 2nd place team and suddenly, they were a threat to medal as a team at nationals.

After an easy run through the West Coast conference, BYU scraped their way past a deep Mountain region. It wasn't their best effort, but they settled for a respectable 3rd place behind Colorado and UTEP. Nationals would be the time to see if BYU could replicate their Wisconsin performance. But when the gun was shot and roughly 30minutes passed, BYU would not be among the medaling teams. The lack of a low-stick hurt them as Farnsworth was their top guy finishing 74th overall. In fact, BYU wasn't even in the top 10. The Cougars finished as the 12th team overall.

So where do we start with this year's team? The biggest focal point of this team will be Dallin Farnsworth who ran like an experienced veteran 2015 despite being a freshman. He showed us that he is the real deal, but also showed us that his youth left him vulnerable at big-time meets like nationals. The fact that he'll be another year older is already a huge positive.

There's no doubt that Farnsworth will be a consistent ace this year, but the pair of guys he has behind him are going to provide even more support. Connor McMillan (a just miss candidate on the ET Top 50) and Rory Linkletter will complete BYU's triple threat. McMillan was 26th at Wisconsin and 10th at regionals while Linkletter has run in only one race during XC last fall (in the 'B' race at Wisconsin). However, his track PR's were incredibly impressive for a freshman. 8:57 steeplechase and 13:52 5k are no joke and should be enough proof that he's developed a solid base for cross country.

The bottom two scoring spots will be a dog fight. Dallin Taylor showed us that he had potential during his on and off appearances on the varsity squad. Senior Mitchell Briggs, is another guy who will bring plenty of experience to a younger team. Rising junior Jonathan Harper also saw time on the varsity squad last fall. Of cource, there are plenty of others that I didn't mention that could definitely have an impact on this year's team.

The only problem is that guys like Taylor, Briggs, and Harper weren't always the most consistent and that's probably the reason why we saw them switch on and off the varsity squad so often. BYU will need to establish someone at the four and five spots to make a bid at being a top-10 team once again. There's no doubt that they'll have talent in all five scoring positions, but when the time is needed to step up, can they do it?

Regardless of the "what if" scenario's, BYU is a powerhouse distance program and they have been for a while. Coach Ed Eyestone can seemingly take whatever guys he has and make them national contenders. He did it last year and he did it before then too. With the guys another year older and experience on their side, watch for BYU to do what they did last year...or even better.

Team Titles Revisited: 2008

2008 State Championships
By Jarrett Felix

It’s hard being the state title favorites. It’s much easier to be the underdog. In 2008, I witnessed this first hand as a part of the Upper Dublin Cross Country team. Over the summer, Upper Dublin, who was returning 4 of their top 5 from states, was declared the state title favorites. They had finished 2^nd at Districts and 5^th at states in their first appearance on the course. The buzz was mainly around their #5 runner and if they could find someone strong enough to help them hold on at Hershey.

Potentially Interesting Side Note: As a runner on the bubble of our varsity squad, I trained like a mad man over the summer to try and make the jump into our top 7, but it backfired and I ended up burning out over the summer and probably peaking in August. Plus, all the other bubble guys didn’t want to lose their spot either and everybody brought their “A” game. I ran around 17:20 that season and ended the year as our #11 runner. So I was a spectator in Hershey, but it was still a really cool experience to be a part of the team.

But while Upper Dublin was gearing up for a title run, the defending champions at North Penn were beginning their quest for a repeat. The Knights had come from completely off the radar in 2006, to an unstoppable title force in 2007. Led by seniors Zack Montijo and Zach Hoagland, North Penn dominated their early season invitationals while sophomore Brad Miles quietly rose into a star. At the state championships, North Penn stormed to a 17 point victory behind three state medalists. Hoagland and Montijo were the only members of the top 7 to graduate, but North Penn seemed to lack the front running on paper to maintain their gold.

And there was, of course, Coatesville. A year after winning the national championship, Coatesville graduated their entire top 5. But they still put together a strong 2007 and ended up claiming the silver medals in Hershey, just 17 points out of first. The legendary program seemed impervious to things like graduation and they were returning three of their top 4 runners from states.

When the season began, Upper Dublin looked like the pressure may have been getting to them. At the Centaur Invitational at DeSales, front runner Mike Palmisano lost his shoe and the boys were defeated by Holy Ghost Prep, a relative afterthought in the preseason rankings. Meanwhile, North Penn rolled in their opening invitational and, to make matters worse, they had a newcomer in their scoring five: Junior, Sam Bernitt.

This next part may sound familiar as it seems it happens every year: at Red, White and Blue, North Allegheny proved they were once again better than their preseason ranking. After PTXC left the Tigers out of the top 10 (they graduated their top 2 and a few other key contributors from the previous season), the Tigers beat North Hills, Lebo and Baldwin in impressive fashion in their opening invite. They placed their scoring five in the top 20 and had a very strong 15 second spread. North Hills held their own through 4 runners, putting their top 4 in the top 11 overall, but their #5 was just 49^th.

At the foundation invitational, Upper Dublin seemed to shake off some of the rust. In a rematch with Holy Ghost Prep, the Cardinals scored 86 points on the state course and grabbed the victory by 12. They placed 3 in the top 12 overall but did have a 74 second spread. On the flip side, 3^rd place Conrad Weiser had a 29 second spread, but no finishers under 17:10. But despite UD’s improvements, North Penn still managed to one-up them. The Knights finished just one-point back of West Windsor at Briarwood, a team that (spoiler alert) would go on to place in the top 5 at Nationals later that year.

The Cardinals would have their first shot at revenge against the North Penn squad at the Carlisle Invitational. The Invite was also set to feature the #3, #4, #5, #6, #9 and #10 schools in the PTXC rankings. It was an absolutely loaded race. However, the weather did not cooperate. Conditions were rainy and the course wasn’t running as quickly as the year previously or the year after. But the weather may not have been the biggest disadvantage Upper Dublin faced. After racing all out at Foundation the week previously, the Cardinals had nothing left for this meet (and neither did their counterparts from HG Prep). North Penn ended up putting 2 runners in front of their #1 and 3 in front of their #2. And that North Penn squad finished 53 points out of the gold medal position.

In a dramatic upset, the North Allegheny Tigers stormed across the course, placing 5 in the top 21 of team scoring and average 16:28 in muddy, rainy conditions with a 25 second spread. North Allegheny put all 5 scorers ahead of Cumberland Valley, who came in as one of the team’s ranked ahead of NA in the PTXC rankings and finished 3^rd in the meet. They were led by a sophomore, Ryan Gil, who finished 3^rd overall and one spot ahead of defending AA state champ Joe Beveridge.

Carlisle, the home team, also made a big statement. Senior Kyle Hurston shocked the stacked field by placing first overall with the only sub 16 clocking. His teammates John Pope and Davey Dennison also cracked the top 10, giving them easily one of the best top 3s in the meet’s history. That helped them claim 5^th overall in the loaded field, 4^th out of PA teams.

Cedar Cliff was 6^th, Upper Dublin was 7^th, HGPrep 8^th and LaSalle was 9^th. Henderson finished 16^th and the mighty Coatesville program finished 18^th.

Things didn’t get much easier for the pre-season #1 at their next invite. After Carlisle, Upper Dublin went to Paul Short to face off against PTXC top 10 teams Cumberland Valley, Germantown Friends and LaSalle. UD’s top 3 runners all placed in the top 20 and the team boasted a 16:18 average with a 48 second spread. But things were tight with Cumberland Valley who had a slim 34 second spread. A closer look at the score sheet revealed the Cardinals had survived to beat CV by just 5 points. However, they finished second in the final standings. Previously unranked Perkiomen Valley sprung a big upset, finishing with 4 in the top 25 and beating out Upper Dublin by just 2 points, despite the fact that their #5 runner was just 105^th. If Perk Valley could round out the #5 spot, they were suddenly title contenders with 3 sub 16 men on the roster and two of the absolute best in the state in Jimmy Tarsnane and Vince Perozze.

However, Perk Valley still had a long way to go to match the depth of the unquestioned top two teams in the state. North Penn rolled to a top spot at Salesianum and Manhattan (they took 1 through 4 in their section) while North Allegheny produced a 36 point score at the Tri State Championship with a 1-3 finish from Ryan Gil and Will Appman. At the WPIAL championships, against even better competition, the Tigers rolled to yet another victory in emphatic fashion. They scored 46 points and won the meet by 84 points with just a 30 second spread. Sophomore Ryan Gil ran under 16 minutes on the legendary Coopers course.

That left North Penn with a chance to make the last statement before states. If they were intimidated by North Allegheny they certainly didn’t show it. Against an excellent field, North Penn scored 110 points and won the district title by 50 points in one of the fastest ever meets Lehigh has seen. 34 runners broke 16 minutes and 100 broke 16:40. The top 6 teams each averaged 16:02 or faster for their top 5 runners, topped by North Penn’s incredible 15:47 average.

The darlings of Paul Short, Perkiomen Valley, barely survived against Lower Merion for the 5^th and final state qualifying spot (LM took 1-3 with Furcht and Berman out front). West Chester Henderson finished 4^th with a team of entirely non-seniors, Upper Dublin finished 3^rd and CR North came up for a surprise silver with 160 points. CRN’s top 4 runners were all at 16:03 or faster, a spread that will usually clinch a district title. But North Penn’s entire top 6 was at 16:08 or faster and they had 3 at 15:41 or faster in Miles, Bernitt and Brian Quintrell.

That set the stage for the state championship. North Allegheny was unquestionably the favorite, but the defending champions were a notable challenger. They had come a long way since Carlisle and were ready for the rematch. The fight for third had the potential to be interesting, but there was clearly a large gap from #2 to #3. Worth noting, District 3 had been fantastic in 2008 with Cedar Cliff, Cumberland Valley and Carlisle all getting significant time in the top 10 rankings. However, Conrad Weiser upset all 3 with a huge win at the District championships. They scored 60 points to defeated 2^nd place Cedar Cliff by 55. Maybe, they could be a sleeper team for a top 3 spot heading into states.

Through the opening mile, things were holding fairly true to form. North Penn was out to a strong early lead with 103 points, but North Allegheny was running well in second, their pack still bunched together. Conrad Wesier and CRN were tight for 3^rd and 4^th with Cumberland Valley, Upper Dublin and Perkiomen Valley also under 200 points.

Over the course of the second mile, North Penn’s advantage began to shrink. The Tigers were charging hard and their pack was rising quickly through the field, especially their top 3. North Penn sat just 20 points up on the Tigers (99 to 119) and Eric Balaban was just a few seconds back of the Knight’s #4 and #5 runners. Gil was running right on the heels of Miles as well in team standings, negating the front running advantage North Penn may have hoped to utilize.

The battle for third was, as expected, getting interesting. Perkiomen Valley, after finished 5^th at districts, was using their low sticks to full effect. Jimmy Tarsnane was in 1^st place overall, looking like he was heading for individual state gold and his running mate Vince Perozze was in the top 10 as well. Junior Scott Armstrong, however, was the hero through 2 miles. He had put himself in 32^nd place with a strong surge over the hills. Sitting in 4^th at 172 points was LaSalle College High School who had just a 14 second spread 2 miles in. CRN and Upper Dublin were at 197 and 202 trying to hang in there for a top 3 finish.

Over the final mile, North Penn proved they had the heart of a champion. On the first year of the Hershey course’s Poop-Out Hill, the Knights crushed the final 800 meters of the race and brought home 3 runners under 17 minutes including 7^th and 10^th overall. The addition of Sam Bernitt form the soccer team had been incredibly important as he was the team’s #2 runner and was worth just 5 points on the score sheet. The boys in blue had a final tally of 92 points and, unfortunately, North Allegheny had not been able to make it up on the final mile.

In fact, in a wild turn of events, the Tigers had fallen off the podium. LaSalle College High School, in the PCL’s PIAA State Championship debut, had pulled off an improbable upset. The team came in ranked #10 in the PTXC polls and was barely an afterthought prior to the gun. They had been 9^th at Carlisle and 4^th at Paul Short between a pack of teams that they turned the tables on at season’s end. LaSalle dropped from 172 points to 125 over the final mile and pulled their pack up the field to topple the heavily favorited North Allegheny team. Tom O’Kane moved from 40^th to 25^th, Sean McCullough moved from 58^th to 34^th, Nick Molloy from 75^th to 53^rd, Tom Trainer from 81^st to 55^th and Patrick Donnelly from 80^th to 58^th. All in the span of just one mile. It was an incredible display of pack running to beat the unquestioned best pack in the state by just 1 point.

Perk Valley collected 4^th place overall, scoring just 5 points from their top 2 runners. On the flip side, Upper Dublin finished 5^th despite having no runners in the top 20 for team scoring. The Cardinals, who had concerns prior to the season regarding their #5 runner, got a big boost from Sam Stortz at the final scoring position. He raced from 211^th at one mile to 167^th at 2 miles and all the way to 122^nd (just ahead of TJ Hobart) for a roughly 40 point swing in the team standings.

It was a tough day for the North Allegheny Tigers, but it made them stronger. After training for an extra four long weeks, NA took their first trip to the Nike Northeast Regionals. There, the team finished in 3^rd place in the loaded region, earning themselves a place on the line in Portland, Oregon for the National Championships. Ryan Gil, Chase Broussard, Patrick Morgan and Will Appman all placed in the top 30 overall with #5 man Eric Balban taking 38^th. Appman, after a disappointing states race, was perhaps the key to the team’s achievements on that day. They outscored North Penn 83 to 166 in the team standings as North Penn, despite a big day from Tim Stauring, had off days from their usual #2 and #3.

The trip to nationals for North Allegheny seemed like it should have merely been a celebratory tour. But the Tigers wanted to prove they belonged after getting an at large bid. They were disrespected in the pre race rankings, projected by some to finish in last place overall. But instead, the Tigers posted one of the best finishes by a PA team in the history of the race. They were 12^th overall despite the fact that their first runner was 43^rd in team scoring. Only 2 teams in the 22 team field had a front runner behind them. But a 20 second spread helped them jump plenty of teams and cement their legacy among PA’s best ever.

2016 Etrain Team Power Rankings: #14 Eastern Kentucky Colonials

By: Garrett Zatlin

25. Illinois Fighting Illini
24. Villanova Wildcats
23. Eastern Michigan Eagles
22. Iowa State Cyclones
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys
20. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
19. Michigan State Spartans
18. Boise State Broncos
17. Washington State Cougars
16. Indiana Hoosiers
15. Washington Huskies
14. Eastern Kentucky Colonials
13. BYU Cougars
12. Wisconsin Badgers
11. Furman Paladins
10. Virginia Cavaliers
9. Colorado State Rams
8. Norther Arizona Lumberjacks
7. Arkansas Razorbacks
6. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Iona Gaels

14. Eastern Kentucky Colonials

Flotrack’s #14: BYU Cougars
Flotrack's Ranking of Eastern Kentucky: 11th
Coach: Rick Erdmann

Notable Departures: N/A

Notable Additions: N/A

Projected Scoring Five: Jaime Escriche-Perales (SR) [ET#43], Amos Kosgey (SR), Jakob Abrahamsen (JR), Erik Rotich (SO), Ambrose Maritim (SR)

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Much like #19 Michigan State, Eastern Kentucky was a tricky team to figure out. They have some really strong weapons to lean on that could catapult them into being a top-10 team. However, there are also a lot of unknowns about this team due to their wacky race schedule and inconsistency.

The 2015 cross country season was a bit different for EKU compared to other programs. They often ran at high-profile meets throughout the regular season like Panorama Farms, Wisconsin Invite, and Pre-Nats. However, not often did the Colonials run their full 'A' squad (the Pre-Nats team ran in a division separate from the varsity).

We saw most of the Colonials at conferences, but a lack of competition still made EKU a mystery as well as an afterthought by the time Southeast regionals arrived. However, once at regionals, EKU did not disappoint. They finally put together a full-varsity squad and showed what they were hiding the whole season. They placed 3rd in the very deep Southeast region and caused chaos on the Kolas Calculator for teams like Furman, NC State, and Virginia Tech.

With all eyes on EKU, the Colonials charged into nationals with a chance at a top-10 finish. Unfortunately, that wouldn't happen as Eastern Kentucky placed only two individuals in the top 100. They would, however, finish with a very respectable 17th place team finish.

It's hard to rank a team that you don't know much about. That's not from a lack of research, but simply a lack of them racing together. We rarely saw Perales and Kosgey race with each other and Jakob Abrahamsen (one of the top returning steeplechasers in the nation) was injured for a heavy portion of the 2015 season.

But what we do know is that EKU has some big-time names that could be very dangerous in 2016. Perales is coming off of last fall's All-American performance and will most likely lead this squad to the promise land (nationals) once again. He was consistent last season and showed us that he's capable of being a true-low-stick. Amos Kosgey is another big-time talent that can contend with Perales, but isn't always as consistent. He was 7th at Southeast regionals, but 124th at nationals.

Jakob Abrahamsen is probably the biggest factor on this team. I'm a big fan of steeplechasers during the cross country season and with a PR of 8:34, he is primed to have a breakout fall. Of course, I'll still need to see how well his performances transfer over to the dirt and grass.

I'm also really eager to see Erik Rotich as well. He was a freshman last year and placed 90th at nationals. He's capable of doing a lot of damage, but like Abrahamsen, the success of the team will rely on just how much he improves.

Abrose Maritim will most likely be the final scorer thanks to his consistency and experience. However, guys like European recruit Samuel Abascal Fernandez could hop into the role of being a scorer. Others like Luis Luna and Luke Ndungu are also candidates.

Eastern Kentucky has the potential to have three aces. Perales, Abrahmansen, and Kosgey all show traits that could make them low-sticks on nearly any other team. The inconsistency, however, does worry me a bit and there is also a lot pressure lying on Abrahamsen and Rotich which makes this team vulnerable to upsets. I may only have them at 14, but if everything goes right and they perform how they should, then the Colonials will easily sneak into the top 10.

2016 Etrain Team Power Rankings: #15 Washington Huskies