2017 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Garrett Zatlin

By: Garrett Zatlin

800

1. Joe White (Georgetown)
2. Emmanuel Korir (UTEP)
3. Eliud Rutto (Middle Tennessee State)
4. Drew Piazza (Virginia Tech)
5. Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest)
6. Daniel Kuhn (Indiana)
7. Craig Engels (Mississippi)
8. Isaiah Harris (Penn State)

Whether we like it or not, multiple mid-distance stars will be going home early. I didn't like making this decision, but I see Patrick Joseph and Michael Saruni ending their weekend early. Two 1:46 guys not making the final is a bit hard to believe, but the level of depth at the 800 this year is insane. Saruni is very young and inexperienced. Joseph, historically, has struggled in the preliminary rounds at NCAA's. Of course, I'm sure they'll end up proving me wrong and blowing away the field. 

As for my picks, I really like Joe White this year. He has been on fire this year with big wins over big names. He can kick hard, run from the front, and contend with anyone in the nation. What's not to like? Korir is super talented and could very well win this, but he's a bit young and that's a concern for me. Heppenstall is super clutch in the post-season, Kuhn is due to become an All-American, and Craig Engels is sneaky good in championship races. 

Mile

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Josh Thompson (Oklahoma State)
3. Ben Saarel (Colorado)
4. Josh Kerr (New Mexico)
5. Dillon Maggard (Utah State)
6. Neil Gourley (Virginia Tech)
7. Jonah Koech (UTEP)
8. Liam Dee (Iona)

Like the 800, a lot of these picks are based on how the preliminary heats are structured. The first heat is incredibly talented and will be the toughest to get out of. However, I think it will be fast enough to the point where we see six men make the finals from that heat.

As for the actual final race, Cheserek is going to win whether the pace is fast or slow. He isn't going to lose unless he gets careless. However, if anyone can beat Ches it will be Thompson who has been absolute monster this season with a PR of 3:56. As for Saarel, he's one of the few Colorado guys that can be called a miler. He competed at the Olympic Trials in the 1500 and is simply more talented than the guys behind him.

Josh Kerr has a lethal kick and I like his chances to surprise a lot of people at the line. Maggard and Gourley have waited patiently to be All-American milers and this year they should be able to pull it off. Koech has had some great experience in big time races and Liam Dee is not afraid to stick his nose into fast races. 

3000

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
3. Colby Gilbert (Washington)
4. Joe Klecker (Colorado)
5. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)
6. Erik Peterson (Butler)
7. Brian Barraza (Houston)
8. Clayton Young (BYU)

When I first heard that Cheserek was doing the triple, I was convinced that he wouldn't be able to pull off the 3k win. But the more and more I thought about it, I realized that not only was it possible, but probable. If we assume that the mile prelim and the 5000 are tactical, then the two hard efforts will be during day two of competition (mile final and the 3000). There's a good chance that the 3000 turns tactical (because it always does) and that Ches completes the historic triple. That's just how I see it.

I think Colby Gilbert is an extremely underrated talent this season. People will be quick to point out that he lost to Cheserek, but it seems pretty clear to me that no other distance runner besides the King is on Gilbert's level. I do, however, think he'll have some tired legs from the 5000 and get hawked by Knight in the final straightaway.

With the exception of Erik Peterson, the rest of my top eight will all be fresh and that's a huge plus in my eyes. Barraza and Klecker have shown tremendous improvement this season while Justyn Knight and Morgan McDonald have already established themselves as elite. Clayton Young has simply run too fast this season to not be All-American.

5000

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Colby Gilbert (Washington)
3. MJ Erb (Mississippi)
4. Marc Scott (Tulsa)
5. Erik Peterson (Butler)
6. Zach Herriot (Virginia)
7. John Dressel (Colorado)
8. Alex Short (San Francisco)

Cheserek will win in a tactical race and shake off Colby Gilbert just when we thought he might have a chance. After those two, I see MJ Erb stepping up and taking bronze. In his four races this season, he's had two PR's, two wins, and no finish outside of the top two. That's enough to convince me that he'll be top three.

Others like Marc Scott and Erik Peterson are guys that dominate during the regular season, but struggle in the post-season. On the track, Peterson been All-American only once (8th place in 2016 Outdoor 10k) while Scott has NEVER been All-American. While that does concern me, I think these two have taken it to another level this season and should be locks to be All-American. 

Others like Zach Herriot and Alex Short have great experience and rarely have a poor race. Dressel has been on fire as of late and I think he'll carry that momentum into nationals.

DMR

1. Oklahoma State
2. UTEP
3. Mississippi
4. Arkansas
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Indiana
8. New Mexico

-Oklahoma State will win because of my blind faith in Josh Thompson.

-UTEP will take silver because they have two 1:46 guys and a sub-four minute miler.

-Mississippi will finish third because they have some of the best mid-distance runners in the nation along with a reliable anchor.

-Jack Bruce is really good and will surprise a lot of people when he anchors Arkansas home to a four place finish.

-Oregon always performs extremely well in the post-season. They are too deep of a squad to not finish in the top eight.

-Stanford is incredibly underrated and so is their anchor Jack Keelan.

-Daniel Kuhn on the 800 and an underrated freshman named Kyle Mau on the anchor is good enough for 7th.

-As long as their other legs don't completely blow up, Josh Kerr will pull out All-American for his teammates.