It’s that time again. Us Etrain writers risk our dignity and sense of intelligence making predictions over collegiate track and field. I’m feeling good after my individual win during cross country (I am Jacob Pickle…the fake Alex Fox refuses to identify themselves. Sad!) Here’s to an incredibly difficult NCAA field and not picking Andres Arroyo!
800
For months, I’ve been
all about Craig Engels. I said it after Olympic Trials. I said it again in
the first episode of Full Speed Ahead
(which if you haven’t checked out, here’s the link: https://soundcloud.com/user-571877119/full-speed-ahead-episode-1-the-ches-triple).
He’s got the speed (PR of 1:46), he’s got the awareness, and he’s got the look.
(https://www.google.com/search?q=craig+engels+mullet&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS728US728&espv=2&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwih5vvYgsrSAhVFMyYKHaMdDnQQ_AUIBigB&biw=1366&bih=662#imgrc=sD5M7vg5br5rVM:). Make me look as good as you do Craig.
After him, it gets tough. I really like
Korir, but he lacks experience and we saw some freshman not produce at NCAA
Indoors last year. Isaiah Harris is a tough pick; he’s run fast, but has lost a
couple of times this season. Joe White has been nothing short of dominate this
year, but had a tough time at Nationals last year. Daniel Kuhn has also shown
his stuff this season, but this will be his first Nationals race. Then there’s
Eliud Rutto, last year’s top returner. I’m banking on Rutto making Heat 2 fast
in the prelims, giving them 5 qualifier, with 3 out of Heat 1.
Prediction
1) Engels
2) Harris
3) Korir
4) Rutto
5) Kuhn
6) Heppenstall
7) White
8) Piazza
Mile
Edward Cheresek is
winning. Remember what he did to Cristian Soratos two years ago? I sure do.
Second should be Josh Thompson. He’s got a mean kick, and honestly, this field
doesn’t really scare me. After that it keeps tricky. Matt Maton runs for
Oregon, who tend to run out of their mind come March as Caleb mentioned last
week (I will not stop plugging our podcast. Seriously, check it out). Josh Kerr
might just be the most underrated runner in the NCAA. Adam Palamar managed to
quietly run 3:57 very early this season. Then we have the altitude conversion
boys from Buffalo in Perrin and Saarel. Jonah Koech ran well at NCAAs last
year, but his cross country season could be cause for concern. What about PA
alum Ned Willig, and maybe Tim Gorman is the next Sam Prakel? I feel good about
1 and 2, but everything is a bit jumbled after that. With the prelims here, I
predict Heat 1 to be faster, as Ches tries to help get his two teammates
through.
Prediction
1) Cheserek
2) Thompson
3) Maton
4) Kerr
5) Palamar
6) Ben Saarel
7) Neil Gourley
8) Willig
This will be the last
race of the weekend for The King (assuming he doesn’t blow up and scratch,
which is what happened last time this triple was attempted). If more of this
field was fresh, I’d be more willing to pick an upset, but I just don’t see it
happening. The one big name who will be fresh is of course Justyn Knight, who
did manage to beat Ches during cross country. Knight is a tempting pick, but
last year, he had a similar opportunity to beat Ches when he was on tire legs,
but opted to race for second. There are other names in this race like Colby
Gilbert and Marc Scott who could potentially push the pace, but given that
they’re coming off the 5k, I think this race goes down similarly to how it did
last year: a strong field on paper shies away, Ches wins in a relatively moderate
time, he makes history. The question behind him and Knight will be how talented
guys fair coming off the double against fresh talent. Names like Scott,
Gilbert, Dressel, Saarel, Maton, and Peterson will all be doubling back (and I
think the 5k could be quick, but I’ll get to that) while Joe Klecker, Morgan
McDonald, Clayton Young, and Brian Barraza will all be fresh. This should make
for an interesting pack.
Prediction:
1) Cheserek
2) Knight
3) Scott
4) Klecker
5) Young
6) Barraza
7) McDonald
8) Gilbert
5000
The only Etrain writer
with All American credentials said if Ches is going to lose, it’ll be in the 5k
(You still haven’t listened to our podcast yet? Do it, I worked somewhat hard
on the audio-editing). Caleb makes a good point. Marc Scott has been a man on a
mission this year. He can run fast and he can kick hard. Colby Gilbert has also
run fast, but Ches showed that Gilbert’s kick is just not on the same level. I
think Ches will have to work for this victory, but he’s the GOAT for a reason.
It’ll be interesting to see some of the other names fresh here too: we’re all
big fans of Eric Peterson, John Dressel is no slouch, plus we get to see how
the cross country heroes from NAU fair on the track. This will be my race of
the weekend.
Predictions
1) Cheserek
2) Scott
3) Gilbert
4) Dressel
5) Peterson
6) MJ Erb
7) Mat Baxter
8) Rory Linkletter
DMR
What a difference a
year can make. Last year’s DMR featured some of the best anchor legs ever,
including Sean McGorty, Brannon Kidder, Izaic York, Mason Ferlic, Jordy
Williamsz, and of course, Ches. This year, there’s a lot of young talent, but
this race is nowhere near the caliber of last year’s dramatic race (which
featured a 3:52 and 3:53 anchor). On paper, Ole Miss should win. Between Robert
Domanic, Sean Tobin, Craig Engels, and Ran Manahan, these guys have far and
away the best mid distance crew in the country. However, questions surround
their anchor decisions; if I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times, Sean
Tobin is a talented runner, but has no business anchoring that team. Do they
have the frontend talent to hold off star anchor Josh Thompson? Other
interesting teams to watch will be New Mexico, with Josh “you should really
learn my name now” Kerr, UTEP, with the ever-mercurial Jonah Koech, and the
upstart Indiana squad with Kyle “no not like the sound a cat makes” Mau. Okay,
I made my bad joke. In all seriousness, I’m intrigued by Virginia Tech, and
could this be the breakout race for Villanova’s oft-forget Logan Wetzel?
Finally, can Oregon scratch out some points in their pursuit of an upset team
title? Only time will tell.
Predictions
1) Ole Miss
2) UTEP
3) Virginia Tech
4) Indiana
5) Oklahoma State
6) New Mexico
7) Villanova
8) Arkansas
Well, there they are.
Let the embarrassment commence AND FOR REAL LISTEN TO OUR PODCAST :)
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