It’s
crazy to think how much can change within even a couple months. But in just
over two months, the entire PA landscape could be flipped on its head. Think
back to March 2016. It’s hard to believe where things stood in comparison to
where they finished up. Wait, what was that? You don’t remember March 2016? You
have the short term memory that comes with being a millennial? Well, don’t
worry, I’ll give you a little flash back.
Joe Espinal was a little known 1:55
guy
Espinal
was a 1:55 guy in 2015, but only sort of. He ran a 1:55.9 hand time in a dual
meet, but hadn’t dropped anything faster in invitational action. Espinal
actually seemed more like a miler. In 2015, he ran 4:19 and qualified for
states by winning the district title in the 1600. He missed a qualifying spot
in the 800, bested by Khai Samuels of Pleasant Valley.
The
experience that came with back to back trips to states in the 1600, allowed
Espinal to enter the 2016 meet with a little extra confidence. After running
1:55.67 to defeat a strong 800 field at districts, a new PR, Espinal rolled to
a 1:54.50 in the prelims at Shippensburg. That set him up as the surprise #1
seed in the State Finals. And it also sparked perhaps the greatest comment in
the history of the blog.
A day
after his 1:54.50 PR, Espinal decided to drop his PR a little bit more. How
about 1:51.09? That Wilson Senior cut another 3.41 seconds off his best to stun
the field and steal the 800 state title. But he earned that title. His 1:51.09
puts him alongside Joey Logue of Pennridge on the State All-Time list. By my
count, he’s in the top 25 800 runners eve to grace the PA high school scene. And
up until state meet Saturday, he was easily outside the top 300.
In fact, the top 800 runners in the
state were mostly unknown
Joe
Espinal was actually a super star in the 800 world relative to some of these
other top dogs. 2nd place finisher Matt Wisner and 3rd
place finish Jaxson Hoey were indoor state medalists and well known stars. Brett
Wolfinger of Quakertown was running in his first outdoor state final, but had
an indoor medal to his name.
But the
other state medalists were relatively unknown. Derin Klick of Lebanon and
Justin Miller of General McLane both made massive jumps down the stretch run of
the season to became 1:53 800 runners and medalists. Miller didn’t have a sub 2
time on his milesplit resume prior to 2016 and Klick was sitting at 1:57. Dave
Whitfield and Justin Jones, a couple unknown PCL runners, entered the meet
among the state’s best seeds with 1:53 and 1:55 district times respectively.
Plus a couple State College kids that you may not have expected got in on the
party.
And in
the AA race, Dom Perretta got a battle he never couple have predicted, facing
off against sophomore Kamil Jihad, Dave Fletcher and Dan Kuhn of Harbor Creek
(who split 1:52 multiple times outdoors). In total, we had a gaggle of
1:52-1:53 types who came out of left field to become super stars and re-write
the state leaderboard. Shout out to Ryan Thrush and Donovan Myers who had
1:52-1:53 type ability but opted for other events as their focus. And won state
gold.
Jaxson Hoey was the most likely
Hoey to win the Penn Relays Mile
After a
terrific indoor campaign that included one of fastest miles in state history,
Jaxson Hoey came into the outdoor season as the man to beat in the 1600 meters.
He was the defending champion after his first season in the PIAA ended with a
dramatic victory over Jeff VanKooten. But in the end, his brother, Josh Hoey,
turned it up a notch from 4:17 miler to 4:11 mile at the Penn Relays for one of
the biggest upset victories in meet history.
Jaxson,
who struggled through sickness in the early part of the outdoor season, turned
out alright. He transformed from miler to 800 meter runner and grabbed a
district champion in his off event. Then Jaxson dropped a 1:51 800 at the state
meet for a tight third overall. The 1600 state title didn’t end up going to either
Hoey as a surprise upset was pulled off by State College’s top dog.
Alex Milligan was the most likely
800 meter runner to score for State College
Milligan
was the top dog on paper, running a 1:53 split as a junior and anchoring the
indoor state champions in the 4x800. But as the outdoor season progressed,
State College got a lift from two other runners. Nick Feffer and Anthony
Degleris qualified for the state meet out of District 6. But Feffer left it
close. The junior qualified by just 0.01 for the state championship.
But
once he got in, he made the most of it. Feffer ran 1:53.50 to finish 4th
in the state championship 800 and Tony Degleris added a new PR of 1:54.17 for a
critical 8th place finish. Those were part of a crazy tight finish
in the team title race.
And, oh yeah, State College was a
big long shot for that state team title
One of
the most exciting state title battles in state history began with a beat down
at the indoor state meet. Downingtown West scored 76 points, yes 76 points,
while State College was the only team to score more than 20. That put DTW in
cruise control for the state title.
In the
time since that meet, State College developed a school record caliber 4x400
relay, expanded their individual credentials and prepared for revenge in the
field events. But in the meantime, DT West continued to improve. Henry Sappey
switched to the 1600, Jaxson and Josh Hoey were both individual title threats,
and Josh McLemore became one of the all-time greats in the sprints.
When
the dust settled, it all came down to that 4x400 relay with State College
pulling out a silver by a nose, perhaps thanks in part to a storm that threw
off the qualifying for the event and made it a 4 heat final.
Who
could have predicted that?
A
couple other favorites of mine …
North
Allegheny became a 7:51.71 4x800 squad with all underclassmen. Their “big dogs”
Migliozzi and Stupak ran individual events and stayed off the relay, but the
Tigers still pulled out state medals for the first time in over a decade.
We
talked a lot about crazy 800 performances, but how about Keion Broadus of
Abington? He’s still probably a relative unknown at this point, but he split a
1:51 to anchor Abington to a silver medal at states over CB West, Pennridge and
North Penn among others.
The WPIAL
took over the 3200. Although they didn’t get the title in AA or AAA, they did
pepper the medal stand and the state leader board. Skolnekovich and Loevner
were among the sub 9:20 performers in AA while Wolk, Migliozzi, Susalla and
Gunzenhauser took spots 2 through 5 in the AAA state final, beating some great
runners.
By the
way, Matt Kravitz won the 3200 that year. He was barely sub 9:20 before the
state final, but ran a big PR in hot weather and threw down a kick for the ages
to outlast a loaded two mile field.
Adding
to that long list of 800 talent, Mike Kolor ended the year as one of the very
fastest with a 1:51.22. That came just after Carlisle’s Matt Wisner dropped a
surprise 4:14.37 full mile to kick down many of the state’s best milers and move
among the leaders in his event. Both guys showed some surprising crisscrossing
range.
Let me
know your favorites and share your “unthinkable” predictions for two months
from now in our comment section.
Now back to More Life.
The AAA 3200m race should be interesting this year. Zach Lefever is the the only returning state medalist from last year. Nathan Henderson and Casey Conboy (Baldwin)are the only other returners who cracked into the top 10 last year. Conboy doesn't have any district titles yet (at least to my knowledge)and should be in line to do so. Provenzo is an obvious threat and should not be overlooked. Then, there is of course the Affolders. I was about to say that Conboy is my dark horse pick for the title,but I forgot about Noah and Sam. We'll see what they will do in outdoors. The DMR is not competed at outdoor states, so they will have fresh legs for their individual events and the 4x800 Or, someone I've never heard of could win, just like Joe Espinal.
ReplyDeleteThe only way anyone in PA beats a fresh Noah Affolder at states is if Affolder is injured or doubling/tripling back on very little rest. Even then, my money is on NA. There are some really great runners in this state, and I mean no disrespect to them, but NA is in a league by himself when it comes to PA HS racing. He's the best PA schoolboy ever* (*even if only for 1 year by way of NY). C'mon. A 4:04 DMR anchor mile? Indoors? Carrying a baton? 8:46 2M indoors? 14:18 5K? No one in PA is close. NA is legendary.
DeleteSorry, but Vandergrift went 4:03.22 from a standing start. Noah Affolders 4:04.9 relay split, indoors, with a baton in hand, running by himself to bring home a national record is darn impressive, but it’s still not 4:03.22. Vandergrift (and Lowry) still have him beat. For now that is.
DeleteOne big problem with your argument is that Paul Vandegrift's 4:03.22 was a 1600, not a mile. He ran it in the PIAA outdoor state finals in 1987, he had competition from the gun, and I was there to witness it. Converting Vandegrift's 1600 time to a mile (which is what Noah ran in 4:04.95) makes it about a 4:04.82 mile. Noah ran his mile solo, got the baton in the lead and was not challenged. So let's look at the differences between the 2 performances, with Noah's circumstances listed first.
DeleteTime: 4:04.95 vs. 4:04.82 - Advantage to Vandegrift by a hair
Venue: Indoors vs. Outdoors - Advantage Affolder, harder to run fast indoors than outdoors
Competition: Solo run vs. competition from gun - Advantage Affolder, as he had no one to run with at all on his anchor, which makes his time and performance more difficult to achieve
Impediment: Carrying a baton vs. no baton - Advantage Affolder, he had to carry a baton, Vandegrift did not.
Start: Relay start vs. rolling start - Advantage Vandegrift, as he started with the gun.
Since Affolder and Vandegrift can never race each other, who the better runner is will always be a matter of opinion. Is Affolder's 8:46 2-mile indoors more impressive than Vandegrift's outdoor 1:51 in the 800? Either side is debatable. Noah won 3 state XC titles ( 2 NY, 1 PA), Vandegrift won 2 (both PA titles). I still maintain Noah is the more accomplished and talented runner and the best to ever don a HS uniform in PA and I suspect this spring he will lay waste to the 1600 and/or 3200 state records and remove all doubt.
Lets not short change Vandergrift. The relay running start is generally considered to be worth .75 to 1.0 second. A baton weighs very little - the effect of a big breakfast or not getting to the restroom before the race would have more of a weight impact. As for competition, unless 2nd place in that 1987 race was 4:08 or better than Vandergrift probably didn't have any direct either.
DeleteI'm working on a side by side for these two although of course Noah's story is not over. For the record, the DMR is metric so Noah's split was a 1600 just like Grift's open run. Noah ran a 4:07 mile solo this indoor season to win Millrose though.
DeleteBrehm was kind of an unknown when he won the 800 outdoors his sophomore year. Carlisle didn't even really run indoor back then.
ReplyDeleteBrehm ran 1:55 and finished 10th in the state as a freshman. Not really unknown.
DeleteEven as a freshman, 10th at states won't get you on many radars, except Etrain's of course, he doesn't miss much.
DeleteBold predictions off the top of my head:
ReplyDelete-Ryan Thrush runs a 4:15 1600 at a random invite, but never runs the event again
-Carlos Shultz qualifies for states with a 9:27 3200
-Spencer Smucker finishes top 4 in the state in the 3200
-Shaun Hay returns to grab an AA 3200 state medal
-Greensburg Salem goes 7:45 in the 4x8
-Seneca comes within 1 second of breaking the AA 4x8 meet record
-O’Haras big 3 all run sub-9:20
When will the etrain More Life article be dropping? Always the best articles that mix track and the 6GOD.
ReplyDelete-Joel Embiid
Do not forget that Nick Feffer from State College is the top 800 meter runner returning from last year. He has already split a 1:53.5 at an indoor meet this year. He is definitely one of the favorites for an outdoor title.
ReplyDeleteEspinal came out of nowhere to win the state 800, nobody could see that coming.
ReplyDelete