AAA – Individual
Early
in the season, Zach Kinne was the guy. He was drawing Nate Affolder
comparisons, winning at Foundation and Paul Short and establishing North
Allegheny as a contender. Kinne’s taken a few small hits, but he’s still the
same guy who dominated in the early season. He just happened to get caught
using an aggressive style on a course that can hit back if you try and go too
fast too soon. The real question is, mentally, how will he handle that race.
I’m hopeful that it doesn’t impact him and we can see him chase a fast time on
this course, but you never know.
Regardless
of how Kinne bounces back, I’ve got this weird feeling that Dan McGoey is going
to run away with this race. For whatever reason, my gut says McGoey could pull
off a Jake Brophy-esque junior performance. If you don’t remember (you probably
don’t) as a junior, Jake Brophy ran 15:24 on the old state layout and put about
15 seconds on everyone else in the field to win the state title and smash the
course record (all in the last mile or so). McGoey just seems locked into me, I
think he’s going to run clutch and I think he has the ability to close hard
after a reasonable start. In my eyes, somebody will make this race quick and
McGoey can hang in the pack and use his strength to close them down.
I think
Christian McComb may finish as District One’s top guy. I just believe in the
Boyertown magic. Jason Weller (2nd districts, 1st
states), Mark Dennin (2nd districts, 1st states), Brett
Kelly (5th districts, 3rd states) and then the awesome
races from McComb and Derafelo last year make me think McComb is going to
bounce back and surprise this weekend. Plus, I think this race will be quicker
than the District meet started which could further help out McComb. He’s in my
top 3.
Patrick
Anderson is an interesting name. I’ve respected this kids heart since his
stretch run to close out his sophomore season and he’s been racing all year
with the top two guys in the state. He beat both of them at Tri States and,
although he couldn’t hang on at WPIALs, proved he’s fearless. He won’t let
anybody get away early and he might have the strength to close them down. But
he too is going to need to be mentally strong as he had a rough finishing
stretch of his own last week.
Interesting
to see what Ketler will bring this weekend. He was 6th last year,
but wasn’t even his team’s #1 guy until this past week at WPIALs. But that was
the case last year too and the guy turned it on perfectly for the stretch run. Ketler
is a senior in a field where many of the top names are juniors. You can’t count
out that extra seasoning and feel for the moment. He’s won a state championship
before in the DMR and anchored on some big stages.
The
District 1 champion Cole Walker is another name we have to talk about.
Historically, the District One champ does pretty well at states. In 2017, 2015,
2014, 2013, 2012 and 2010 the D1 champ was also the state champ. Cole Walker
looked very strong and under control en route to his district win. He’s also
proven he can be clutch, running a monster 3200 for a state medal last spring.
Walker has great track speed and that was sure to translate to Districts, but
states at Hershey will be a different animal. But Walker’s talent is undeniable
and he certainly could steal the championship. He’s in my top 5, but I’m just a
little worried about his experience on this kind of stage.
Ultimately,
I think this is going to be a WPIAL heavy race, assuming they can survive the
tough conditions they have run in the past two weeks. Christian Fitch is a top
10 threat, Sam Owori is always a factor, Peter Costentino’s consistently has
been impressive and Leachman, Marmol, Kaulbaugh and others have proven they are
medal threats. In terms of top talent, I think the WPIAL will show their
strength at this meet.
As for
District 3, I can’t get a read on these guys at all. There’s been so much
flipping around at the top between Dorenkamp, Foster, Wisner, Klingenberg,
Knepper, Shields, Miller and Grucelski. And sure I just named everybody in the
district, but any of those guy could be the top dog at states! My money is on
Wisner because of his years of experience and the fact that Carlisle typically
brings their “A” game for states, but you never know. I’m not super high on the
D3 teams, but I think the D1 individuals are going to mix it up for some big
time medals.
Typically
the top sophomore at states is at least in the top 12. The past three seasons,
the top soph has placed 3rd overall which is incredible. I don’t see
that happening this year, but Brayden Harris is ultra-talented and could be a
top 5 threat if things break right. He won Mid Penns and Districts and was in
the mix for the W at Carlisle as well. Plus his teammate has experience peaking
for states as Chayce Macknair was a surprise medal winner last fall. Aiden
Barnhill is a wild card in the sophomore discussion and is the guy I think may
end up swinging the state title in either direction. Odds say we are going to
get around 3 sophomore state medalists and West is hoping Barnhill ends up one
of them. Uninoville’s McIntyre is the other big name with medal aspirations
(and 15:41 is going to get you into that discussion). Dieter Burckes is a fun
long shot and maybe even John Zawislak if he recaptures the magic he had at
Hershey last year.
One
last thing that I found interesting was Henderson’s breakout freshman Gavin
Brophy. He ran 16:01.8 to take 24th at Districts. That kind of
time/place combination puts him on a list of elite frosh performers like Carlos
Shultz, Jake Brophy and Spencer Smucker (of Henderson) who all went on to be
top 30 finishers at states (Smucker got a medal). I don’t want to put that kind
of pressure on Gavin Brophy, but he’s a big talent in a good program that may
end up in the top 50. He and Calvin Pash are interesting names to watch. The
other big name frosh is probably Alex Kane who has been awesome this year and
could end up the #1 D11 guy at states if things break right.
|
|
Name
|
|
Grade
|
School
|
District
|
|
1
|
1
|
Dan
|
McGoey
|
Jr
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
2
|
2
|
Patrick
|
Anderson
|
Jr
|
Mount
Lebanon
|
7
|
|
3
|
|
Christian
|
McComb
|
Jr
|
Boyertown
|
1
|
|
4
|
3
|
Zach
|
Kinne
|
Sr
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
5
|
4
|
Cole
|
Walker
|
Jr
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
6
|
5
|
Tyler
|
Wirth
|
Sr
|
Wallenpaupack
|
2
|
|
7
|
6
|
Payton
|
Sewall
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
8
|
|
Noah
|
Demis
|
Jr
|
North
Penn
|
1
|
|
9
|
|
Brayden
|
Harris
|
So
|
Mifflin
County
|
6
|
|
10
|
7
|
Seth
|
Ketler
|
Sr
|
Seneca
Valley
|
7
|
|
11
|
|
Christian
|
Fitch
|
Jr
|
Fox
Chapel
|
7
|
|
12
|
|
Chayce
|
Macknair
|
Sr
|
Mifflin
County
|
6
|
|
13
|
8
|
Sam
|
Owori
|
Sr
|
Seneca
Valley
|
7
|
|
14
|
9
|
Jack
|
Wisner
|
Sr
|
Carlisle
|
3
|
|
15
|
10
|
Vincent
|
Twomey
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
16
|
11
|
Peter
|
Cosentino
|
Sr
|
Mount
Lebanon
|
7
|
|
17
|
|
Andrew
|
Foster
|
Sr
|
Ephrata
|
3
|
|
18
|
|
Evan
|
Dorenkamp
|
Sr
|
Manheim
Township
|
3
|
|
19
|
12
|
Isaac
|
Valderrabano
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
20
|
|
Brandan
|
Knepper
|
Sr
|
Mechanicsburg
|
3
|
|
21
|
13
|
Cole
|
Driver
|
Sr
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
22
|
14
|
Ethan
|
McIntyre
|
So
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
23
|
15
|
Mike
|
Donnelly
|
Jr
|
Haverford
|
1
|
|
24
|
|
Zach
|
Leachman
|
Jr
|
Mars
|
7
|
|
25
|
16
|
Connor
|
Shields
|
Sr
|
Warwick
|
3
|
|
26
|
|
Joey
|
Litvin
|
Jr
|
Lower
Merion
|
1
|
|
27
|
|
Josh
|
Lewin
|
Jr
|
WC
East
|
1
|
|
28
|
17
|
Bradden
|
Koors
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
29
|
|
Luke
|
Klingenberg
|
Sr
|
Cumberland
Valley
|
3
|
|
30
|
|
Jason
|
Cornelison
|
Sr
|
Cheltenham
|
1
|
|
31
|
|
Patrick
|
Theveny
|
Jr
|
Penncrest
|
1
|
|
32
|
18
|
Owen
|
Isham
|
Sr
|
State
College
|
6
|
|
33
|
19
|
Ethan
|
Maher
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
34
|
|
Zack
|
Marmol
|
Jr
|
Peters
|
7
|
|
35
|
|
Tyler
|
Clifford
|
Jr
|
Perk
Valley
|
1
|
|
36
|
|
Ian
|
Miller
|
Sr
|
Manheim
Township
|
3
|
|
37
|
|
Rob
|
O'Brien
|
Sr
|
USC
|
7
|
|
38
|
|
Dalton
|
Kalbaugh
|
Jr
|
Shaler
|
7
|
|
39
|
20
|
Aiden
|
Barnhill
|
So
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
40
|
21
|
Dieter
|
Burckes
|
So
|
Wallenpaupack
|
2
|
|
41
|
|
John
|
Zawislak
|
So
|
Spring
Ford
|
1
|
|
42
|
22
|
Paul
|
Ghantous
|
Sr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
43
|
23
|
Kyle
|
Kutney
|
Sr
|
CR
South
|
1
|
|
44
|
24
|
Kevin
|
Wagner
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
45
|
|
Nathan
|
Grucelski
|
Sr
|
Conestoga
Valley
|
3
|
|
46
|
25
|
Andrew
|
Kollitz
|
So
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
47
|
26
|
Linus
|
Blatz
|
Sr
|
Owen
J Roberts
|
1
|
|
48
|
|
Trentin
|
Overcash
|
Sr
|
Chambersburg
|
3
|
|
49
|
27
|
Cosmo
|
Cardone
|
Sr
|
Easton
|
11
|
|
50
|
28
|
Matt
|
Zilligen
|
Sr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
AAA – Team
I’m
surprised to find that my team title race is between DT West and LaSalle. I’ve
suddenly moved to counting out North Allegheny after I proclaimed them state
favorites on the Hub a few weeks ago. LaSalle’s District performance in what
was essentially a very competitive practice was super quick. Those times at
Belmont are awesome and they’ve got a really deep top 7. Meanwhile, DT West was
great with 4 guys sub 16 at Lehigh which was more than I was expecting (of
course that may be the ignorance talking). Both teams really stepped it up when
the lights were bright.
I still
like NA’s chances to be competitive at the top, but I’m a little worried about
Kinne as I mentioned earlier. They need both of their horses to be clicking to
knock off these other squads who just have so much depth. I think Kollitz could
be a difference maker, but James and Nalepa (and Turkovich and Foody) will be
the most important pieces. Typically, you need 4-5 guys around the top 50 to
win states. That wasn’t the case last year, but it’s been the case basically
every other year since we moved to 3 classifications. Considering the strength
of LaSalle and DT West, I’ll be stunned if the winning team doesn’t have all their
guys in the top 60 places overall. That’s what NA is up against.
None of
these three teams really wowed me at states last year. I thought LaSalle was
clearly the best team on paper, but CRN nearly stole the title. If it wasn’t
for a big day from Ghantous, LaSalle may have ended up second. DT West was the
district champs, but CRN took care of them at states. NA was outside the top 10
overall. So as far as I’m concerned all these teams have something major to
prove. Having something to prove is a key positive for each program, but also a
mental barrier they need to be ready to overcome.
Unionville
is suddenly a really interesting wild card. If you put their performance at
districts up against CRN’s performance at districts last year (you know, the
team that went on to tie for the state championship), there’s not a crazy
discrepancy is there? If Unionville runs to their potential, they can get to
130 or under for points and maybe steal this thing. On the flip side, when CRN
showed up to states they were the reigning state champs and had plenty of
experience on their side. Unionville is a lot less experienced with a lot less
recent state pedigree so I have a harder time believing they leave with a team
trophy. James Conway sneaking into the top 40 would be huge, especially if his
other teams get on the medal stand. You can talk yourself into a Unionville
title pretty quickly, but one off day from one of their stars and they are
fighting just to stay in the top 10 (take a look at Henderson 2014 for the team
they kind of resemble in my head).
The WPIAL
squads will contend and you can be the D1 squads will too. It’s no secret that
D1 has a consistent resume of performing on the big stage and the district was
deeper than ever this year. CR South has really convinced me they are a
dangerous sleeper. I don’t see them cracking the top 5, but they could snipe
one of these WPIAL squads who, on paper, have to be ranked ahead of them. And,
oh by the way, Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon weren’t all that far away from
North Allegheny at districts. One slip up from McGoey or Kinne and one big day
from one of these school’s #5 runner and they could end up the top team from
out west.
So like
I said in my general info, I projected out the state meet to every runner and I
ended up with a tie between LaSalle and DT West at 96 points a piece. We’ve
already had ties in 2011, 2012 and 2017 involving a District One team and the
Catholic League champs. Could we have another one this year? The trickiest
things for me are: is Twomey ready to take a leap and be a top 10 guy at
states? His Belmont times say so. Are Barnhill and Valderrabano medal
contenders or are they behind LaSalle’s pack? Is Paul Ghantous ready to double
down on his clutch race from a year ago with a top 30 finish?
Ultimately,
I think the race will be swung by Wagner for DT West or Zilligen for LaSalle
those are my guesses. I’m interested to see which guys win that match-up. I’m
banking on Wagner having a big day and sneaking into the top 50 plus I have
some medals going to two of his teammates and only of the Explorers. But all
that still leads to a tie in the final standings. So maybe I should put a
little faith in the depth of the defending champions rather than look for
excuses to knock them off.
Here
are my picks:
10. CB
East
9. Owen
J Roberts
8.
Haverford
7. CR
South
6.
Mount Lebanon
5. Unionville
4. Seneca
Valley
3.
North Allegheny
2.
LaSalle
1. DT
West
It’s
harder to be the hunted the hunter. I’ll go with West for the win! Should be
fun to get smack talked by all the LaSalle guys during the award ceremony …
