State of the Union

State of the Union Address

After Barack shared his insights on the Country this past week, I figured it was appropriate for me to do the same. With the 2015 World Championships in the not so far off future, let’s take a look at the United States hopefuls for a spot on the line in Beijing.

Mid-Distance

In 2012, Duane Soloman and Nick Symmonds each ran 1:42 in the 800m, putting themselves 2^nd and 3^rd in US history and securing 4^th and 5^th in the Olympic Games. In 2013, the US came within a fraction of a second of sending three runners to the World Championship final (Brandon Johnson just missed) and ended up leaving the championships with the Silver medalist (Nick Symmonds). However, after a so-so 2014, there is a chance that the 800m could take a dramatic dip in quality this season. 

Symmonds, the #2 800m runner in the world in 2013, was out of action for almost all of 2014 after making the high profile switch from Nike to Brooks. He’s getting older and after over a half decade of dominance on the US scene, his best years appear to be behind him. It’s hard to read too much into a non-championship year, but Symmonds had a dream season in 2013 and finally won a long coveted world championship medal. He has talked about some big goals for the future, including a 1500m-800m double in Rio, but it remains to be seen if he still has his past fire. 

His running mate Duane Soloman did race in 2014 and came out the gates flying in the early spring. However, by the time summer rolled around, he looked burned out and out of place in the loaded Diamond League fields. Soloman has won back to back US championships at 800m, but his performance seems to be slipping relative to his mammoth 2012 campaign. He seems to have some timing issues with his peaking that hopefully he can address looking ahead.

Those two have combined for nearly a decade’s worth of titles, but is their reign on the verge of ending in 2015? Brandon Johnson, who ran 1:43 in 2013 in a breakout season, was basically completely absent from the 2014 scene. The former 400m hurdler will have to prove he can be consistent and duplicate his past success for a second year, otherwise he will be written off as a fluke. Erik Sowinski seems to be the man in waiting after a strong indoor and outdoor campaign in 2014, however, outside of the US he hasn’t shown much. He’s got strong odds of making it onto the World Championship team, but his prospects of making noise once he gets to Beijing are slim. Casmir Loxsom (editors note: set the 600m AR this weekend), Tyler Mulder, Mike Rutt and Elijah Greer are a few of the other names who feel like they can mix it up for a chance at the world championship team. Each has had success at the US level, but none of broken through to make the team. 

The lack of depth in the 800m, may cause a few men to shift down in distance to avoid a loaded 1500m field. The 15 has been stacked in recent years thanks to Matt Centrowitz (3^rd, 4^th and 2^nd at the last three championships) and Leo Manzano (2^nd at the 2012 Olympics) who are both master tacticians and are excellent at making teams. Manzano is the shakier of the two. He’s been inconsistent his entire career, but when he is on his game, few can touch him. He has a sponsorship again and that should help his training looking ahead. Both men ran personal bests over the summer so they have the potential to be back on the medal stand in 2015.

Andrew Wheating and Lopez Lomong have been featured players in recent world championship teams as well. Lomong is long overdue for the move to the 5k, but he still has the speed to mix it up in the 15 and the savvy tactics to survive a kickers race. He was indoor champion at the mile this past year and is a former indoor record holder at 5000m. Wheating made the 2012 Olympic team and boasts a 3:30 PR, but it’s been a rocky road for him since graduating from Oregon and injuries have been a problem. He has a ton of talent, but who knows if he can utilize it.

Mac Fleet has now graduated from Oregon after back to back NCAA titles in the 1500m. He has an excellent kick and has spent the past few years learning to win big races. He doesn’t have the open times to suggest he’s ready to get an “A” standard, but the rookie is one to watch at USAs. Will Leer, a man who has come incredibly close to making the outdoor team, had a fantastic indoor season in 2014 that included a win in the fabled Wannamaker Mile over Nick Willis. Leer will look to finally break through and find a way on a team.

Patrick Casey in the big sleeper. He had a huge 2014 and was probably the nation’s best 1500m guy in the non-championship year. He could do big things this season. Also on the radar are talents like Robby Andrews and Kyle Merber, who’s peak abilities are scary and their finishing kicks are impressive. Inconsistency issues have plagued their careers, but Merber had an impressive 2014 in his rookie year as a pro. Jordan MacNamara and David Torrence have run some of the fastest times of any American outside of Manzano and Centrowitz, but they haven’t been able to navigate the rounds at USAs and punch a ticket for worlds. 

The fact of the matter is there are only three spots and, barring injury, two of them seem already locked in place. That makes for tough sledding for the other men looking for a shot at Worlds.

Long Distance

This is Galen Rupp’s territory. He owns the fastest two 10,000m ever in U.S. history, one of them coming last year at Hayward Field. He is in the prime of his career and dreaming of usurping training partner Mo Farah and chasing gold at Worlds or in Rio. He should capture another US title in the 10k this year and will be out for revenge in the 5k as well.

Every year we think, “Hey, maybe this is the year Bernard Lagat shows signs of being old!” and every year we are wrong. Lagat is still beating out Rupp in the shorter distances like 5k and 3k despite the fact that he is now about 40 years old. He has to slow down sometime, but I don’t think we can write him off this year’s teams. He’s not quite as fleet of foot as he was even a few years back, so on the world stage he doesn’t have the wheels to hang in the medals. That being said, he is tactically brilliant and puts himself in the right spot to make something happen on a regular basis. 

Chris Derrick is rising star of the 10,000m. With Ritz making the move to the marathon, Derrick slides comfortably into the #2 position behind Rupp in the event. Derrick is now in his third season as a professional and after making his first team in 2013, may be ready to make more of an impact internationally in 2015. His training partner, Evan Jager, just broke the American Record in the steeple (again) and knows a thing or two about competing internationally. He’s been close to cracking the medal stand in the steeple, but needs a bit more closing speed to do it. He has now been steepling competitively for almost 4 years so his ability should begin to really hit it’s peak. Keep in mind, despite his long career as a pro, Jager is only a year or so older than Derrick (Class of 2007 v. Class of 2008 for HS) so he is just hitting his prime years.

There is a slew of runners who have had close calls in the past with US teams hoping to make a jump this season. Ben True seems like a logical choice to fill the vacant 10k spot after his 13:02 this past season and his 4^th place at USA’s in 2013. True has been excellent on US soil, but was streaky last year overseas. Young talent like Ryan Hill and Hassan Mead will challenge for qualifying spots, particularly in the 5,000m. Hill made the 2013 world championship team and Mead was neck and neck with True this year, running 13:02 as well. Other contenders include Sam Chelenga (excellent 5k indoors last year), Diego Estrada (solid half marathon recently), Luke Puskedra and Trevor Dunbar (the Oregon bias comes out).

In the steeplechase, Don Cabral should be next in line behind Jager. He had a solid 2014, but his 2012 was the year everyone will remember. Jager’s teammate Andy Bayer has had success moving up to the steeple and in his second year in the event, he could be dangerous on the US scene. Dan Huling, another Bowerman TC member, has run under 8:20 on multiple occasions and should contend for the 2015 world team yet again. Corey Leslie is a great speedster who can run 3:34, but hasn’t been able to put it all together in a championship steeple just yet. He’s a name to keep an eye on. Desean Turner is also a name to remember: he was the third member of the 2013 world championship team in the steeple.