Relays: Who is Going Where?

One of the biggest keys to analyzing this season is correctly predicting who is going to run which relays at the indoor state championships: especially this year. With just 12 teams being accepted into both events, it's going to be a tight squeeze and only the most focused runners will survive. Basically, if you want to make the DMR, you are running it at TFCAofGP Last Chance or Meet of Champs. You have to. Same likely goes for the 4x8. It sucks to say this, but it's hard to feel safe. Pennsbury's 7:57 should hold up. St. Joe's 10:29 shouldn't have a problem. But there a ton of bubble teams who will be running for their lives these weekends hoping to get some magic.

It snowed this week for those who haven't noticed and we are fortunate that many teams were still able to get out and race. But just imagine if a hard storm hits before MoC or the Carnival or another important invite. With the current system in place, a cancellation could ruin a season. That's the drawback of having no auto qualifying procedure.

I'm still on the fence about whether or not I'm a fan of the new qualifying system (I feel like I'd be more on board if they hadn't slashed the 4x8 field in half). I'll have to get back to you on that after I see how crazy things get in the final weeks of the season with all the jockeying for position. With that in mind it's time to guess which top teams will choose which events! Here we go ....

4x800m: The Almost Definites who probably should put more stock in the DMR
Pennsbury (PA #1)
Central Bucks East (PA #3)
Altoona (PA #9)

I'm pretty sure these teams will be in on the 4x8 this year thanks to a combination of outdoor success in previous years and key doubles from some of their top legs. Pennsbury could attack a state meet record in the DMR with this team: Sauer is a killer 1200m type on paper and Webb is a gamer on the anchor. However, this team has never run the DMR at states despite having the squad to do so in the past, so I'm not getting my hopes up. East is a little bit more borderline. With Brophy on your team, you have to consider the DMR where you can use his full potential on a longer leg, but they seem to be comfortable as a unit in the 4x8. I'm also not sure they have a clear 1200m leg (I'd say Sands is best on paper) and they probably would be using Boucher in the 400m leg which seems like a bit of an underdistance for him (although he has excelled at that race). Both of these teams will run fantastic in the 4x8, I just hope they run a fast DMR sometime near season's end. I'd rather not have to float around the phrase "what if".

Altoona looks straight loaded for a DMR. With Foust already returning as a strong leg, plus the recent surges from Jerrod Sunderland and Brett George at Kevin Dare, this team is in perfect position to compete for a top spot. They have done it in the past (2010 they were a very close 2nd and 2012 they were in the mix up front as well), but last year they passed up a very good DMR squad to chase the 4x8, which may have ended up being the wrong choice (although it's hard to say for certain). If Stroh can continue to gain momentum as he recovers from injury, this team will be just fine in the 4x8 (they have at least 3 potential sub 2 guys on paper), but I think they could really make their money running a fast DMR.

4x800m: Write it in pen, they are doing it
State College (PA #2)
Pennridge (PA #4)
Abington (PA #5)
Strath Haven (PA #6)
Penncrest (PA #7)
Bensalem (PA #10)

State College is the defending champs and they love the 4x8. No way are they passing this up (for the record they also are a very good squad). Pennridge and Bensalem were the champs in the previous two years and these schools are proven, consistent 4x8 programs. Although Bensalem has a nice DMR on paper, they will likely be stacking this relay in the not too distance future to try and dip into the sub 8:10 range. Abington won a state title in 2010 and a national title in 2011. This is the best relay they have had since that historic group of runners and they could shine over the next few weeks.

Haven and Penncrest are two teams I really like. Haven has a nice consistent squad that should excel in the 4x8. They did run the DMR back in 2013 (and probably should have picked it in 2012), but without a breakaway anchor like Huemmler on board, they will likely stick to the 4x8. As for Penncrest, they are one of the sneaky best programs in the state for this relay. The problem: they haven't won that elusive state gold. This looks like it is developing into one of their best teams ever and although they ran a good DMR this past weekend (and were second in the state back in 2008) this team is clearly hungry for a victory. I'm a fan. They race at the Armory this weekend and I suspect that they will be the second PA team sub 8 minutes this winter.

DMR: If you need to keep your possessions safe, use these locks
St. Joe's Prep (PA #1)
GFS (PA #2)
Malvern Prep (PA #3)
Conestoga (PA #4)
CR North (PA #10)
WCH (PA #14)

Worth noting, when I say "locks", I mean if these teams qualify, they will run the DMR. I'm basically positive. I'm not positive they will all qualify (even though I would bet they all get in), but when you watch these teams and you take a peak at their rosters, you can see the identity. The Prep has been looking to get back to the DMR for a bit after a streak from 08 to 10 where they were in the medals. The emergence of John Daly as a 4:17 leg really transformed the story here and with a few other returners from a 7:53 4x8 a year ago, this team is poised to make noise (although some would argue they are the 3rd best team in the PCL ... scary).

GFS and WCH are the most successful indoor DMR teams of the past decade. Henderson has 3 state titles in the event and if they have the pieces, they rarely choose the 4x8. This year I don't see the pieces for a 4x8, considering many of their top guys best event appears to be the 3k. GFS has never run the 4x8 when they've had a choice and they've consistently produced impressive DMR results despite rarely having flashy individuals or big name runners. This year they do have a few names you should know (this kid Nick Dahl and his 8:44 aren't too shabby) and they are clearly built perfectly for a DMR.

Malvern Prep is also built excellently for the DMR. They could probably swing together a nice 4x8, but their two end legs, Wills and McDevitt, seem most at home in the mile-3k type events so the DMR is the best use of their talents. There is an outside chance they make a change to the shorter relay because Wills (and McDevitt) could compete in the 3k, but I think they are willing to double guys in the DM.

Stoga is a strength team. Excellent during cross and so far strong in the mile/3k. Nelson dropped down to 800m at Kevin Dare and came through big time with his 2 flat. They are developing nicely for a DMR and, not to be offensive, but I don't see the speed on this roster to compete in the 4x8 with the top teams (they may not have a guy on the roster who can break :54). I love that 4 XC guys will likely make up this relay, reminds me of the successful Henderson squads of the past. CRN is a good team. They probably need to drop a few more seconds to be assured a spot, but Arita is becoming a game changing anchor so far with a couple nice scalps and golds already. CRN hasn't seriously pursued a 4x8 in a while (2010?) and, although they could run a nice relay, I can't imagine them lining up and chasing anything but the DM.

DMR: Sleeper squads that I believe in
Twin Valley (PA #9)
CR South (PA #8)

I like both of these rosters. Both teams could end up in the 4x8, but I think they will choose the DM and have the potential to make serious noise. Not too long ago, CR South was battling St. Joe's Prep head to head in the DMR (and winning if I remember correctly). Now Prep is #1 in the state. South's end legs are awesome so far this winter and with their 3k strength, should feel right at home in the DM. As for Twin Valley, they may not have given me the gold medal prediction I had for them last weekend at KD, but they still are owners of one of the top DMR times in the state. Plus, they ran that time on a flat track with little competition. Coakley has been solid in the 800m and mile this season and the Geary's have also turned heads. They could drop some time in the 4x8, but the pieces seem to fit better on the DMR.

So what will the rest do?
Out of the top contenders, O'Hara and LaSalle are among my question marks at this point in the year. Both seem like logical fits for the DMR. O'Hara has the super star anchor to carry the relay in Kev James. James won't have that kind of impact on the 4x8. Meanwhile, LaSalle has run a top notch DMR already this season without any big marks in the 4x8 to note. They have a slew of talented milers and a great 800m leg in Stefan Sutton.

That being said, LaSalle is chasing the 4x8 at the Armory this weekend and will make a push for their own sub 8 mark. A sub 8 mark can't be ignored and may shift the tides in favor of the 4x8. I think the team may be better at this event in the long run because of their supreme balance and depth. If Grant breaks out as a sub 4:20 type, everything changes, but for now we will watch the 4x8 with excitement.

As for O'Hara this is the third straight year they have dangled an excellent DMR, but the past two years they decided to skip out on the DM in favor of the 4x8. They let some longer distance guys double in the 3k (Savage, James) and chose to use tired legs in the shorter 4x800m rather than the riskier DMR. Then at Nationals, they unleashed their All-American, state record setting teams. So do I think O'Hara should run the DMR? Yes. Will they? I'm not convinced. Especially if James runs the 3k (which he probably will/should). Besides, they showed this weekend they can run a competitive time (8:09).

Other teams to watch include DT West (DMR?), Avon Grove (DMR?), CB West (?), HG Prep (DMR), DT East (4x8), Radnor (?), Bonner (DMR), Pleasant Valley (DMR) and many, many more.

Let me know some of your thoughts on the contenders on who will run what and who will surprise in the final weeks of the season. Also feel free to check out the list of top times right now in the state with my predictions for who will run which events here on the blog under indoor qualifying. If you have an opinion/inside scoop, feel free to give me some updates!