2017 XC Team Rankings: AAA Week Four

Team Rankings: AAA Schools

Honorable Mention: Twin Valley (District 3)

10. North Allegheny (District 7)

Early Season MVP: Dan McGoey

McGoey was pretty darn good for a typical freshman. He finished in the top 50 at states which is rare to see from such a young runner. Now, he’s poised to be a top 5 guy in the state and is allowing NA to race 4 on 5, a luxury they didn’t have last time.

Biggest Strength: On The Verge Of Greatness

I’m starting to see the pieces come together for the Tigers. They always seem to have their best for the end of the season so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this team make a run to the top 7 of the state. Stephen Nalepa (sophomore) seems to be a name on the rise. I’m interested to see how he develops down the stretch.

Keep An Eye On: Who Will Step Up?

Part of what has made NA great over the years is the fact that they’ve had some true gamers in the locker room. Jacob Stupak comes to mind as guy who always had a little something extra for the postseason. He and Migliozzi were incredible in 2015, the year after the Tigers graduated their top 3 from a state champion team. I think one or more of the seniors on this team (mainly Phillips and Robinson who were varsity last weekend) could really transform this team with an inspiring run and push the Tigers back into the Top 5 discussion.

9. Butler (District 7)

Early Season MVP: Doug Kostelonsky

Coming into this season, Butler returned 4 big pieces from a state qualifying effort last year. They needed somebody to come in and fill the hole at the #5 spot. So far, it looks like Doug Kostelonsky is ready to take on the spot. I believe this is his first XC season and he’s rolling so far. Could just be hitting his stride after the opening few meets.

Biggest Strength: Momentum

I feel like this team has a lot of positive momentum. Yes, they were probably hoping for a better showing at Boardman, but this team is still confident. They picked up a big league win against NA, they have the confidence that comes with peaking at the right time a year earlier and they have a #1 runner who inspires others to be great in Noah Beveridge. There’s just an energy around this team that makes me think they can make a run.

Keep An Eye On: Big Race Experience

Last year, Butler ran awesome at WPIALs after a relatively tame schedule. This year they will need a repeat as, so far, they skipped out on RWB and Foundation. I think the coaching staff over at Butler knows what they are doing better than me, but it will be interesting to see how many opportunities they take to race the state’s best teams prior to districts and states.

8. Bishop Shanahan (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Jon McGrory

McGrory was perhaps the least proven XC standout from Shanahan’s core 5 entering the year, but he quickly put doubts to rest with a quality run at the Abington Invitational. He seems poised to pick up where he left off last spring after a terrific track season.

Biggest Strength: Potential

So much potential here. They could have the state champ in Josh Hoey. Jonah Hoey is an x-factor who seems to have made nice strides in year 2 of his XC training. Jack Ettien is a proven gamer who was a top 50 guy in AA as just a freshman. Logan Yoquinto can run 1:55 for 800 meters. And they cruised to their first invite win. There’s a lot to like here on paper.

Keep An Eye On: Question Marks

So far Shanahan has only raced one invite. They looked good there and showed their horses are all off to a good start. That being said, we haven’t seen them race since and it’s unclear when they will set off at a major invite (Paul Short?). I just want to see them race another top 10-15 team in the state before I move them too far up the rankings.

7. Spring Ford (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Jacob McKenna

Spring Ford has been great the past two seasons, but the strength of the team has been pack running. The pack is back in 2017, but McKenna has also emerged as an elite front runner. I don’t believe they had a top 30 finisher either of the past two seasons at districts. If McKenna can be a top 20 guy as he is projected to be (maybe even top 10) it will make it a lot easier to post a state qualifying score at districts.

Biggest Strength: 7 Deep

Even when two strong runners had an off day, Spring Ford barely missed a beat. The Rams took 4^th, just 5 points back of Lebo and 18 back of Boyertown at Foundation and got a huge day out for their freshman John Zawislak. Any of their top 7 guys can be their #2 it appears after Zawislak’s run and that makes them tough, especially on the tough courses. Interestingly, Spring Ford was actually leading at the half way split of the gold race so if they can just hold on a little longer they could be in the state championship conversation.

Keep An Eye On: 6-6-6

It has to be said, the devlish 6-6-6 is in play for this squad. The trio of Ainscoe-Smith-McKenna know all too well that Spring Ford has been 6^th the past two years at districts and this season has the potential to be the same. I’ve got them listed as my #4 team right now, but there are a lot of powers looming behind them. Let’s see if they handle the pressure and rise to the occasion at districts.

6. LaSalle (District 12)

Early Season MVP: Ethan Maher

Maher is a returner from last year’s state qualifying squad, but Twomey and Evan Addison have gotten most of the preseason attention. Maher has quietly been a consistent force in the varsity line up and got off to a great start in 2017. He rounds out a potent looking big three for the Explorers and will be needed to keep things close against the other dynamic top 3s in the state.

Biggest Strength: The Army

What can we say? This team goes 10, 12, 15 deep year after year. They’ve got horses, they’ve got confidence in the training and they produce results. There’s a reason this team has placed in the top 5 of the past two state championships despite having no runners in the top 40 overall.

Keep An Eye On: Haven’t We Seen This Before?

Last year, LaSalle looked like a potential title threat. A year earlier, they had seven guys who could break 17 at Hershey. In 2014, they even knocked off O’Hara with a brilliant display of pack running to win the District title. However, LaSalle has still not managed to leave states with a set of medals since 2008, their first year in the PIAA. Hard to imagine that with all their success, they have struggled to have that big breakthrough. Let’s see if they can change that narrative in 2017.

5. DT West (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Evan Kaiser

Rollins got the hype from yours truly going into the season, but maybe the guy to watch should have been Kaiser. We haven’t seen him in a 5k yet, but he looks poised to go low 16s in his first big invite.

Biggest Strength: Confidence

I think this program is now officially a big deal. They were emerging in past years, but they’ve gotten to the point where they are throwing out B squads in invitationals and still competing for the win. They have so many weapons to pull from and they have a great next man up mentality. It’s hard to imagine this team not getting back to states once again despite the fact that they lost basically their entire varsity squad from 2016.

Keep An Eye On: Only Five Guys Actually Count

We talk a lot about their depth, but they will need the front running to get the job done. Last year, they took 3^rd in the state, but they had a top 20 and top 30 finisher on the roster with two more guys near the top 50. Do they have that this year? Because even if they could put 15 guys in front of most team’s #5 runners, it doesn’t mean much in any marquee invitational or championship meet. I’m excited to see this team authentically attack a race so we can see just what they’ve got in store.

4. Boyertown (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Josh Endy

Boyertown had a state qualifier last year in Dominic Derafelo. But if they wanted to make the leap as a team he would need some company. Enter Josh Endy. Josh was a solid track runner in 2017, but has blossomed into an all-star in XC and joined Derafelo as a front running presence this team can rely on. Endy sets the tone for the success of the Bears.

Biggest Strength: Best Pack In The State

Hard to believe it, but I think Boyertown actually has the best 1-5 pack in the entire state. If you told me I’d be saying that before the season started, I’d have said you were crazy. But this team is consistent and solid across the board. Todd Barton and Justin Smyth were awesome at Foundation and Kollin Miller is no joke of a #6. They don’t have the same front running as some of the other team’s but nobody had a better #5 at Foundation. That’s legit.

Keep An Eye On: What is Their Ceiling?

Boyertown hasn’t been quite at this level before. They are making a jump from 14^th and 25^th the past two seasons in District One to now trying to win a state championship. Although we’ve seen some teams make a one year jump like this (Conestoga in 2013, CB West in 2014), I don’t think we’ve seen a team like this. When’s the last time a team went from outside the top 10 in D1 to district champs? How about state champs?

3. Mount Lebanon (District 7)

Early Season MVP: Alex Brokaw

Lebo’s big 3 are doing quality work, but Brokaw is the piece that will help them get over the top. We knew about most of Lebo’s top guys from last season, but Brokaw didn’t even make my Lebo cheat sheet that I put out at the beginning of the year.

Biggest Strength: 10 Deep

I’m a big believer in depth. You can obviously win state titles with just 5 guys, but I think it’s a lot easier when you have a crowded backfield. I think the best teams have 5-6-7-8 guys that are all crowded together, fighting hard to just keep their spot on varsity. Well how about 5-6-7-8-9-10+? That should bring out a lot of quality performance in this pack.

Keep An Eye On: Coopers Lake

Look, it’s been said a million times, but I’ll say it again. Lebo and WPIALs have not gotten along recently. But that doesn’t mean this team can’t buck the trend. They’ve had to listen to all that talk for months, some of them years, and this could be the season they turn it around. All they have to do is survive districts and I believe they will be a factor at states. Hopefully, Foundation takes some pressure off this squad because I haven’t given up on them yet.

2. CR North (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Ethan Koza

Koza was the #5 man on CRN’s championship team a year ago. When his teammates were clicking under the 15:50 barrier and battling for medals, Koza was hanging back just a little bit, picking up his own impressive performances, but still in the shadow. During track season, Koza did his fair share of shadow running as well, despite showcasing incredible range across a variety of disciplines. So far in 2017, this has been his time to shine.

Biggest Strength: May Have 4 Top 30 Guys

North had 4 top 30 guys last year at states (4 in the top 26) which was incredible. We’ve rarely ever seen depth that strong. With a top 4 that dominate, they won the title by 42 points over Carlisle, meaning their #5 runner could have finished in about 121^st place instead of 43^rd and they still would have come home champions. That just goes to show you, if they have 4 guys that good again, it’s going to take a heck of a day to beat them.

Keep An Eye On: Inconsistency

North needs to have that kind of day. They’ve had a few hiccups, a few missing runners and fallen victim to surprise upsides. We will see if that is a theme for 2017 or if this squad is ready to repeat.

1. Seneca Valley (District 1)

Early Season MVP: Connor Volk-Klas

The Mars transfer solidified the Seneca Valley attack. He adapted quickly to the training and stormed through his first two invites as a legit medal threat in AAA. Seneca Valley could get three on the medal stand, a result they will need if they want to compete with the high powered front running of CRN and to bury the pack heavy teams behind them.

Biggest Strength: Sneaky Well Coached

We’ve talked plenty about Henderson, DT West, CR North, North Allegheny, State College, Carlisle and many more (I listed a ton to hopefully not offend anyone, but probably still did) as programs that we just expect to churn out top 10 teams every year. Well, maybe it’s time to start looking at Seneca Valley. I think they honestly had the best coached program of any team in PA during 2016-2017. They took a young core of relative unknowns and turned them into a 7:46 4x8, a 4^th place XC team and WPIAL champs. I believe that they will not only keep this strong pack going, but also solidify the 6-7 spot as they look toward districts and states.

Keep An Eye On: Looking To Next Year

Their top 4 guys from Foundation were all juniors. Last year they had two of the best 3 sophomores in the state in AAA. At Foundation, they had the top 3 overall juniors in the race. It’s hard for this team to not think “Well, this year we are good, but next year we could be amazing!” Sometimes the young guns don’t have the same backs against the wall attitude as the seniors. It will be to guys like Dixon and Bellack to keep everyone focused.