2017 XC Top 50 Rankings: Week Four

This was a tricky week in the Top 50 rankings. It would be a heck of a lot easier if I split these up by classification as I could just compare head to head results. But this weekend, we saw results from three different races at the same location. How the heck are we supposed to compare that? Typically, I give the benefit of the doubt to the smaller school guys. Most of the time, a smaller school race isn’t as deep as the bigger school races and that means it will be a bit harder to run a fast time. But a lot of times also comes from the pace and Isaac Davis in AA set a blazing fast pace for his competitors to follow. So there was a lot to think about.

Some of my near misses that I feel deserve a shout out include Anthony Harper of Bonner (4^th at Foundation in AA race, returning state medalist), Ian Miller (sub 17 at Foundation, 14^th in the Gold Race) and Sam Gatti (runner up at Sharpsville).

Miller’s result may end up being big for D3’s long term prospects on this list. Miller was 12^th at Big Spring, but took 14^th in Hershey. Hard to say how much of that was Miller having a better day in his second race and how much of that was the level of competition at both meets. My guess is somewhere in between. Regardless, excellent day for Miller and nice team building opportunity for Manheim Township as they had to roll through the course without their #1 runner in Dorenkamp.

50. Josh Endy, Sr Boyertown (1 AAA)

Endy gets the nod here over a few names that bested him because he has now produced top results in two marquee invitationals. He was one of the top PA athletes at PTXC and now doubles back with a sub 17 run at Foundation, finishing in 16^th in the Gold race, just 2 seconds away from taking 13^th.  Plus, you have to give Endy some bonus points. His team’s success thus far makes his long term prospects better. He’s got extra push in practice, extra motivation in races and a lot of confidence in the training program. Shout out to Endy, one of the breakout stars of September 2017.

49. Cameron Binda, Jr Greensburg Salem (7 AA)

48. Christian Fitch, So Fox Chapel (7 AAA)

47. Alex Ermold, Jr Governor Mifflin (3 AAA)

46. Colin Cramer, Sr Southern Lehigh (11 AAA)

Cramer opened up his season with a solid 4^th place showing at Northampton, but really turned a corner with his 8^th place finish in the Gold Race at Foundation. Although his Southern Lehigh teams to be dealing with injuries (they are missing a lot of their key returners from last year’s state qualifying team), Cramer has only improved through the opening month. I think Cramer is the kind of runner who will peak at the right time. This may just be the beginning of his rise.

45. Michael Samson, Sr CB West (1 AAA)

44. Garrett Baublitz, So Juniata (6 A)

Babulitz moving to A would be an interesting shake up atop the XC standings. He’s a dangerous finisher who just had his best ever performance on the state course. He’s definitely a wildcard in this race and could potentially surprise down the stretch. With these younger talents, every month ends up being valuable.

43. Mark Brown, Jr Greensburg Salem (7 AA)

42. Ethan Hermann, Sr Allderdice (8 AAA)

41. Tavonne Davis, Sr Allderdice (8 AAA)

40. Jacob McKenna, Sr Spring Ford (1 AAA)

39. Jeffrey Love, Jr George School (Independent)

38. Peter Borger, Sr Malvern Prep (Independent)

37. Bryce Ohl, Sr York Suburban

36. Evan Dorenkamp, Jr Manheim Township (3 AAA)

35. Elias Lindgren, Sr Episcopal (Independent)

34. Jack Miller, Jr Jenkintown (1 A)

33. Jared Giannascoli, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

32. Jake Underwood, Sr Wilson (3 AAA)

31. Ryan Stravaggi, Jr Harbor Creek (10 AA)

30. Czar Tarr, Sr Chartiers Valley (7 AAA)

29. Andrew Healey, So Holy Cross (2 A)

I was on this kid’s bandwagon entering the season, but after about a month got distracted by other bandwagons. I think his 16:44 and 2^nd place finish (within striking distance of Forsythe) is quite impressive. I’m not saying he’s going to beat Tristan at season’s end (that would be one heck of an upset for the sophomore), but he’s at least got a chance to keep it interesting if he continues to improve like this. Healey, Baublitz and Elk County Catholic’s Ben Hoffman may be 3 top 5 guys in A. They are all sophomores.

28. Brendan Miller, Sr Upper Dauphin (3 A)

27. Tyler Leeser, Sr Milton (4 AA)

26. Seth Ketler, Jr Seneca Valley (7 AAA)

25. Evan Addison, Sr LaSalle (12 AAA)

24. Jack Wisner, Jr Carlisle (3 AAA)

23. Ben Hoyer, Sr Wissahickon (1 AAA)

Hoyer was the big star of Foundation, breaking out with a 5^th place finish and a 16:32 time. He was just a few seconds away from being 3^rd ahead of stars like Etter and Conway. You don’t want to overreact to any one result, but it’s important to note Hoyer had excelled in meets prior to this as well. He’d only been beaten by Josh Hoey prior to this weekend where he knocked off a slew of top 50 guys.

22. Evan Kreider, Jr Cocalico (3 AAA)

21. Quinn Serfass, Sr Loyalsock (4 AA)

20. Jack Zardecki, Sr Dallas (2 AA)

19. Joe Cullen, Sr Wyomissing (3 AA)

18. Sam Owori, Jr Seneca Valley (7 AAA)

17. Jonah Powell, Jr Grove City (10 AA)

16. Ethan Koza, Sr CR North (1 AAA)

15. Tyler Wirth, Jr Wallenpaupack (2 AAA)

14. Morgan Cupp, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

13. Mitchell Etter, Sr State College (6 AAA)

12. Sam Snodgrass, Sr South Fayette (7 AA)

11. Carlos Shultz, So Phoenixville (1 AAA)

Yes, he’s at a new school, but Carlos Shultz is still running as well as ever. The Phoenixville sophomore knocked off a talented group including two of the state’s top returners in Campbell and Cupp at the CRN Invite. As mentioned in the recap, he was probably the best freshman we’ve seen come through the PIAA since Jake Brophy. Brophy was 8^th in the state as a soph and state record holder by his junior season. Amazingly, I still don’t have Shultz ranked as my #1 sophomore in the state. That could be an interesting showdown when the time comes.

10. Avery Lederer, Sr Penncrest (1 AAA)

9. Liam Conway, Sr Owen J Roberts (1 AAA)

8. Josh Hoey, Sr Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)

7. Spencer Smucker, Sr Henderson (1 AAA)

6. Ryan Campbell, Sr CR North (1 AAA)

5. Dan McGoey, So North Allegheny (7 AAA)

You don’t want to overreact too much to any one result and moving McGoey up 7 spots ahead of Snodgrass (who he was dead even with at RWB) may be a bit of a reach. That being said, I’ve got a feeling about this kid doing something big. He’s already one of the most impressive NA guys in history, regardless of age. His sophomore times put him in a league with only WPIAL all-stars like Brent Kennedy (who was 7^th at states as a sophomore). Plus there’s something about the North Allegheny singlet that makes me afraid to doubt him. There’s been a sophomore in the top 3 at states for AAA each of the past two seasons. Why not make it three?

4. Tristan Forsythe, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

3. Isaac Davis, Sr Jersey Shore (4 AA)

Davis made a big statement with his victory this past weekend. He ran 16:01 and was much faster than not just his direct competition (which included two of his top competitors in a title run this season in Ohl and Snodgrass), but also A and AAA champions Forsythe and Kujdych. That time was blazing quick on this course and he earned it by gunning out the first half of the race at a suicidal 7:43. Now the only question for Davis is if I can hold this form and actually improve on it through to states. Last year a lot of the top finishers from Foundation couldn’t keep their form through the state championship (or at least they couldn’t drop a lot of time from their September marks to November). In 2015, Foundation individual champs went on to sweep the state championships. In 2016, Foundation champs were shut out in November.

2. Noah Beveridge, Sr Butler (7 AAA)

1. Rusty Kujdych, Sr Neshaminy (1 AAA)

Nothing new to say here. Kujdych gets another big win against the best field of the weekend. His #1 spot is safe. Paul Short could be an interesting race for him (assuming he’s going back and not resting up). With good weather, he could be near 15 flat. I believe he was in the 15:20s or so last season and he’s only gotten better since his junior season.