Although
the AAA WPIAL has been successful at state championships in the past, competing
as arguably the state’s second best district, the west hasn’t had two top five
teams at states since 2011. That season also happened to be the best
performance for Mount Lebanon in the last decade as they took home 4th
place overall and were just a few rolls of the dice away from the state
championship.
Two
weekends into 2017, the narrative is somewhat similar. We have two WPIAL teams
who are ranked in the top five of the state with a few others looming. And we
have Mount Lebanon right to lead the charge up the ranks.
Entering
the 2011 season, Mount Lebanon returned six members of their varsity squad which
had placed 7th in the state the previous year (just 11 points out of
4th). 2011 was, undoubtedly, a transition year for the state on the
whole. 11 of the top 12 state medalists in AAA for 2010 were graduating. There
was just one sophomore in the top 40 state finishers, so it appeared the young
talent waiting to fill the shoes of the graduated elite was not there either.
From
this turnover, the experienced Mount Lebanon squad emerged. Alex Moran, who was
one of the 7 returning state medalists, blasted a 15:30 for tops in the WPIAL
at the Red, White and Blue Invitational. His teammates backed him up as Lawton
Tellin and Kevin Tramaglini finished 10th and 16th respectively,
followed by Scott Westover and Seamus Roddy in 22nd and 33rd.
Overall, through 7 guys, Lebo was the deepest team in the state, even better
than defending champions North Allegheny. Their final average on the quick
course was 16:08.
Flash
forward six years later. Again, only 7 of the previous year’s medalists are
back. Seniors made up every single medal spot from 16th through 24th
in last year’s championships. Many of the top teams were hit by graduation.
This time, Mt Lebo was not a returning state power. They didn’t qualify for the
2016 state championships and were actually just 6th at districts.
However, they returned five of their top seven runners including two young
state qualifiers.
At the
Red, White and Blue Invitational this year, Lebo didn’t have a front runner
like Alex Moran was in 2011, but they had an even better pack. Patrick
Anderson, Peter Cosentino, and Alex Brokaw took the top three spots for Lebo in
9th, 10th and 16th. Again, the deep pack was
on display with 23rd and 32nd place finishes rounding out
the top 5. In total, Lebo had 88 points, a 16:16 average but a dynamite 33
second spread. They were victorious at the invite, defeating the defending
WPIAL champions. Just like they did in 2011.
Looking
back at that 2011 team, the next few races were strong. Lebo battled hard with
Cardinal O’Hara at the Foundation Invite, losing by 6 points in a tight race.
Here, the Lebo pack was bested by a tighter one from O’Hara. At the Tri-State
Championships, Lebo moved one step closer to that elusive WPIAL title by scoring
76 points to North Allegheny’s 90. This time their spread was excellent with
just 39 seconds separating the 1 to 5.
Unfortunately,
when the Lebo boys returned to Coopers a week later, the rain was pouring down
about the course. In a dramatic turn from Zach Hebda’s blazing run a year
earlier, the district title was won in just 17:04. North Allegheny shocked the
world by scoring 50 points in the muddy conditions and Mount Lebanon barely
hung on for 2nd as Pittsburgh CC was breathing down their neck.
However,
that Lebo team was resilient. They overcame the loss and performed admirably at
states. Alex Moran took home a second straight medal with Lawton Tellin
finishing in the top 30 as well. That 1-2 punch helped lead Mount Lebanon to a
4th place finish with just 153 points, only 19 points away from a
state championship.
They
say history repeats itself and maybe we will see a similar battle between Mount
Lebanon and this year’s defending district champions, Seneca Valley. The
discrepancy between the two teams in week one was comparable to the gap in
2011. Both teams are currently projected to be top 5 teams in the state and the
PA team title landscape seems ripe for a wild state meet similar to the one we
saw in 2011.
Yet as
great as that season was for Lebo in 2011, the members of this year’s team may
be hoping against the tides of repetitive history. After some struggles at
Coopers Lake in the past, Mount Lebanon should be hoping for redemption on the
district course. Not only do they have a battle on their hands for the district
title, but they will have close competitors in North Allegheny and Baldwin who
will be looking to knock them out of the state picture entirely.
In the
end, maybe the way to close this post is with a simple quote from philosopher
George Santayana. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat
it.
Ultimately,
that’s why everyone should read this blog on a daily basis.
I feel
like I just ruined a moment. Well, it’s gone now.
Good
luck to all the WPIAL schools this year. It’s going to be fun to watch.
CRN lost again.
ReplyDeleteIt was kind of a lame weekend but CRN was revealed to be not very deep. They're probably PA #5 right now behind Lebo, SV, LaSalle and Shanahan.
ReplyDeletesometimes i get really confused by the analysis here, so i try not to put too much time into commenting these days. etrain i feel like you've done such an incredible job of modeling analysis over the years. i hope it catches on soon.
ReplyDeletecrn didn't race their #2 returner and a state medalist today. If he places inside the top 15 they win.
i totally agree they lack depth, but if Earley races healthy (so placing 3rd or 4th in this race) they put 4 in the top 8. and we all have watched campbell over the past 3 years get so so so much better after September. if CRN puts 4 in the top 30-35 runners in AAA with one runner in even the 17:20's they will win this title.
just for some clarity on team points CRN currently looks like 3+12+15+20+62 = 112. i would imagine this year that between 100-125 wins a team title.
CRN has a lot of ifs but Mount Lebanon has a lot of runners.
DeleteHistorically depth wins states.
hmmm, interesting point about depth at states. certainly 2011-2013 depth was really important, but the last 4 state championships the team with the most depth didn't necessarily win (and last year depth didn't matter at all).
Deleteand CRN always has "a lot of ifs" at the beginning of the season, which etrain and i keep trying to remind you of. and right now those "ifs" to me have been fairly eliminated by Ergott's racing this season. i thought he would be much further behind, so i think he has solidified things for me despite Mount Lebanon having clear depth advantage and exponentially getting better with such a young crew.
Sam Earley started the race (from the race video at Briarwood). He didn't enter the woods (1.1 miles into the race) and Rusty in his interview insinuated that going out too fast was tough on such a hot day. I am guessing the heat got to Earley and he dropped out rather than push through. Smart racing decisions this early in the season.
Depth mattered big time last year. CRN had it, Carlisle didn't. CRN won it on the strength of their 4th-7th being much better that Carlisle's.
DeleteSpeaking from experience, CRN always looks week early in the season, and they always pull it together later int the Fall. That just is the way of the world. We can sit here and doubt them all we want but I know that barring injuries, they arn't worried
DeleteBriarwood Takeaways: (mind you, times were extremely slow from the heat. Especially deeper back in the race.)
ReplyDelete-La Salle looked great. The squad checks off every question, from front running, to depth. Even with a bit of a drop off after #5, they had Ghantous drop a 17:51 to win JV, so he will help bolster that back end of the top 7. And then of course, destroying the JV races, the rest of the army was full on display. Per usual, La Salle looks strong, but we seem to have this same narrative every year. They look like a title contender early on, but can never seem to break that top 3 at states. Even if this isn't their year, its a very young team.
CRN- I will not yet lean one way or the other on CRN's squad until I see the whole squad finish a race. That being said, while I think they still have the best 5 in the state, their lack of depth CAN be a problem, as shown with Earley having to drop out, costing them the title. Basically, if they get that top 5 on the line at states and they all finish, they'll probably come away with the title.
Twin Valley- This is a really good team that is one man away from contending, not just for a district championship, but probably for a top 10 spot at states. They had an off day from Schlegel and just really are missing that #5 spot. If Hill, a 2:02 800 runner, can step up and fill that role, they're looking at finishing with 110-120 points, possibly beating CRN. If they don't fill that #5 spot, they probably won't see Hershey. If they do, they could be district champions.
Great Valley-Had the tightest time spread by far in the meet, looks as if they've developed some really good pack running. Coates was 16:24 as a sophomore last year, so if this pack can stay intact and get a good low stick, they could be a deep sleeper out of D1.
Haverford-They're running pretty well for a group of really young guys. Don't quite have any studs or a particularly tight spread, but they're a really young team with a ton of room to grow, being lead by a sophomore and junior in Donnelly and Peetros.
Challenge Race-
Malvern Prep/Episcopal- I think the main takeaway for this race was that the Independent school teams are definitely in a down year, however, the race for the individuals is extremely competitve, with guys like Lindgren, Borger, and Harper. Also big race from the Cheltenham's Cornelison. Could definitely grab a state qualifying spot out of D1.
Found this analysis very insightful. Well thought out. Feel like people are going to both extremes with CRN, but this post sends a good middle message. Great stuff, hope to see more from you.
DeleteI agree CRN wins last week and this week if their full varsity ran/finished. However, I also agree with those saying depth is an issue. Even if Early placed yesterday about where he normally would, they win, but they would still have a 2:00 spread from 1st to 5th. Etrain probably has a spreadsheet available to confirm this but I think most state champions are around 1:00-1:10, and no team in the last few years has finished top 5 with a 2:00+ spread, with the exception of last year’s Carlisle. So depth is a legitimate concern. The good news is it’s still September so there’s still plenty of time to develop the 5-7, but they’ve got some work to do. I still consider CRN the favorite but Mt. Lebanon is looking pretty good so far.
Delete-RJJL
The Carlisle over 2 minutes spread had a lot to with Noah Affolder running so fast but the point is valid. If your 5th and up are in 70th-80th, that's a lot of points to overcome.
Deletetotally loving these last few comments! been interesting checking out "depth".
DeleteMaybe a pole on what we mean by "Depth"
a) 3-5 runners
b) 4/5-7 runners
c) ______?
i was looking up all of the winning teams since 2007 and the average spread 1-5 is 1:02
lowest was :46 (seconds) by North Penn in 2011.
highest was 1:28 by North Allegheny in 2010
Most are from :55-1:05
these certainly validate Mount Lebanon whose squad I think falls perfectly into this trend. It will be interesting to see if CRN can get that 5th man within the 1:30 range. That would be like Ryan Campbell running 15:50 and having a 5th man at 17:20 (which for soph. Matt Mullen would be a 34 second improvement, but he also hasn't raced this season).
Lastly, i will add that Vincent Twomey looks really good with that 7th place finish as a sophomore. His class is really exciting, and I think that LaSalle is a top 3 team for certain.
Personally, I think about 4/5/6. I feel like most competitive teams have good top 3s, or else they wouldn't be near the top to begin with.
DeleteThe problem comes at the last 2 spots, where guys can get buried amongst all the other team scorers. I like teams to have competition for the last 2 spots as a sort of back-up plan if someone has an off day. So in that case, I guess I like Lebo right now.
But we all know you only need 5, which is why CRN is still such a big threat. They have the best 1-4 in the state, so they can get by if they can put their 4 ahead of Lebo's 2, for instance.
But to answer your question Forrest, I say depth=strong through 6.
-Jiminy Cricket
Ricky Fowler might have DOMS, some mascots seem to have taken over the commericals. Too much too soon. He was dominating over the summer and in the first few weeks. Hopefully it's nothing serious and he's maybe just dialing it back a little for the late season peak.
ReplyDeleteFoundation will help answer a lot of questions this weekend. Specifically, for the D7 teams up front for the title battle, and the D1 teams towards the back, looking to qualify. In complete honesty, I have CRN and DTW 1-2, and I truly have about 8 teams that I think are competing for those last 3 spots. Most of them are toeing the line at Foundation. Will certainly be interesting to see.
ReplyDeleteAny word on why Noah Beveridge dropped out of the Boardman race? Apparently he was leading with about 1K left, but didn't finish.
ReplyDeleteAlso David Endres does not show up on his team's results this weekend?
Delete