The Gold Recap: I Finally Made It Back From My Run

Well, I’m sad readership. After hours lost on a local running trail with a rolled ankle, only one of you was concerned enough to comment and make sure I was ok! And even that one was a seemingly sarcastic reply rather than an earnest statement of sympathy. I’m sure some of you probably thought I went for a run, came back and decided to do something else other than my post. Well that sounds perfectly reasonable, but it’s definitely not that. It’s definitely the completely ridiculous thing.

Gold Recap
This was a big test for the state’s elite teams. Here at Hershey, we would get a good idea for which teams had a realistic chance at the state title as almost all of the team’s in the “Strong Contender for a Breakthrough” category were here. At the top of this list were two WPIAL squads: Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon.

Now no WPIAL squad outside of North Allegheny has even placed in the top 3 at states in the last decade plus, but a couple schools have cracked the top five. Those schools include Seneca Valley (2016, 2007) and Mount Lebanon (2011). How about that, it almost seems like I planned it that way.

Prior to this race, I think most people had come on board with the idea that Mount Lebanon was the #1 team in the state as of mid-September so they had a big target on their back as they entered Foundation. Meanwhile, Seneca Valley had lost straight up to Lebo in a convincing match at RWB where the Hatton’s were missing their #1 runner. Yet Seneca Valley quickly turned the tables as, just like last year, it appears RWB may be their most lackluster performance of the season. Seneca Valley stole this one with their front three which includes known studs in Sam Owori and Seth Ketler, but also the rising transfer stand out Connor Volk-Klos. That top three was all across the finish before 2nd place Boyertown or 3rd place Lebo had their #1 finish. That’s huge, especially when you consider, if it was a dual meet, the race would be over right there even if Seneca Valley’s #4 and #5 guys ran 35 minutes.

Of course, they weren’t even close to that mark. Aidan Domencic had a huge performance as he stepped up and finished 30th overall. Alex Dixon brought it home in 47 and that clinched for SV who, by the way, had a top 4 of all juniors. Domencic would probably be my MVP for this team in this race as I didn’t see that result coming at all. It is worth noting, however, that there was about a 60 place gap between the #5 and #6 runners on the invite champs. I doubt the gap stays that big, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The other thing: has the foundation champion ever won states? I honestly don’t remember anyone doing it, but it’s possible.

As for Lebo, they still are contenders. Although they were 40 points back on race day, they didn’t have a big breakthrough from any of their top 3. No one ran bad, but I think if one guy steps up it pulls them all up the field. I also think Alex Brokaw is a guy with room to grow. He doesn’t have a lot of experience on this course, especially in a big time varsity race. The next time these guys race, the pressure will be off a little bit. I think the best thing that can happen for this team is to be underdogs going into WPIALs.

So I’m going to help feed that right now. There’s at least a path for Lebo to be bounced from states. North Allegheny at least has a path to catching up. They’ve got the front runner in McGoey and their #4 and #5 from this race were a sophomore and a freshman with limited experience on this course. Plus, TJ Robinson has been a scorer for this team in the past. He was their #7 on race day. If Robinson finishes in the Phillips-Turkovich group NA is right with Lebo and Spring Ford in the final standings. 4 quality teams for 3 spots. It’s gonna be rough for somebody.

Let’s jump to another district that’s gonna be rough for somebody. Of course after this weekend, it looks like it could be rough for multiple teams. The big two stand outs from the weekend were Boyertown and Spring Ford who took 2nd and 4th in a tight battle at the loaded Foundation invite. Boyertown knocked off Lebo with a similar strategy, using a 37 second spread. Josh Endy has proven he’s a legit front runner and sophomore Christian McComb is really coming into his own. This top three could be dynamic and Barton, Smyth and even Kollin Miller are all clearly very capable of being scorers on a state qualifier out of the toughest district. Keep in mind Miller ran 16:34 last year and has a 9:53 3200 PR. He’s going to be a valuable piece on the Lehigh pancake. I’m on board with these guys. They seem legit and I definitely have them slotted for a state spot.

Spring Ford has been out dueled by league rivals Boyertown three weeks in a row now, but I still haven’t given up on the Rams. The boys from Spring Ford have had some heartbreak at districts in the past and they are going to be very motivated. Plus, they just have a ton of talent. Look at freshman John Zawislak: he jumped all the way to the team’s #2 on one of the toughest courses around. Joseph Power and JT Clark also ran excellent races, both finishing in the top 45. Everybody seems ready to step up in moments of hardship which could be needed at Districts. Shane Ainscoe and Zach Smith, both top 5 guys last weekend, were the #6 and #7 this weekend but have the potential to contribute and keep the team honest. To top it off McKenna looks awesome as the front runner and seems like Spring Ford’s best shot at a medal since Paul Power.

Those two squads should be strong contenders, perhaps even favorites for a state qualifying spot, but a few other long shots made their mark this weekend as well. Owen J Roberts, CB East and Great Valley are all lingering as contenders. Have to give credit Owen J. They were 6th overall in this race and used Liam Conway’s front running to their advantage. Plus they had the 2nd best JV squad in the meet behind only Mount Lebanon. That’s pretty wild. There are scorers for this team that were running on the JV squad this weekend so there is even more room to improve for these guys. CB East also had a scorer on their proverbial bench as Sean Lahetta won the JV race at Foundation. East only has one senior in the varsity squad. As for Great Valley, I’m impressed by this team’s pack. They had just one top 50 finisher will make them a real long shot in District 1, but they could be a top 10 team in the state for sure. They have a little 2009 Upper Dublin in them (look it up). Shout out GV.

Individually, Rusty Kujdych rolled to yet another big time invitational victory. He ended up going through in a modest 8:03 to start and then opened up a strong gap en route to the finish in the #2 time of the day (16:14). Dan McGoey, just a sophomore, pulled out a big performance of his own with a 16:27. He’s looking more and more like a top 10 guy at states. We’ve had a top 3 sophomore each of the past two seasons at AAA states. Could we see another one?

Liam Conway reminded us he has legit XC ability, even on a grueling state course. Mitchell Etter proved that he is ready to do big things at the front of the field. I think Etter has a chance to grow even more as he gets more comfortable at the front of the state scene. Keep in mind Feffer was 11th last year after a similar performance. Ben Hoyer of Wissahickon looked awesome with his 5th place finish ahead of a long list of Top 50 guys. He will likely be one of the biggest movers in the rankings this week.

District 11’s top guy was Colin Cramer. Big result for the Southern Lehigh runner who was on my preseason top 50 because of his upside. Franklin Cunningham of Hazleton was (to me at least) a surprise as the #1 D2 guy. Cunningham has a nice resume (I believe he was district champ or runner up as a sophomore) and jumps into a loaded D2 that includes Tyler Wirth, Kyle Burke and 27th place finisher in this race Tyler Holcomb.


Keep an eye on Josh Lewin. He was just behind Hoyer in the first meet of the season and is only a sophomore. He and his East teammates got a valuable lesson on the course this weekend and although they didn’t blow anyone away, I think they are a younger team that will gain experience and confidence going forward. I think they have a good shot at a top 10 finish in D1. I’m still keeping Lewin in my medal conversation.

14 comments:

  1. Train that wasn’t sarcasm, it was genuine concern. It was just tempered a bit so as not to create a panic where the every hospital in PA is getting calls from Etrain fans asking if a delirious runner was admitted babbling something about needing to post triple A Foundation Gold. Few outside of XC circles would have a clue what we were talking about. Keep that ankle elevated!

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  2. Kujdych is on a roll but maybe should take a couple of weeks away from racing now and recharge for the October stretch.

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  3. SV is the surprise of the week, even the PA Don't Play guy is worried for CRN

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  4. I think Train mapped out the D7 battle pretty well. Lets dive a little deeper into the D1 picture, with every team mentioned in this article, plus DTW, CRN, a Uville team that got the win at Oberod, a CBW team that dominated the Souderton twilight meet, and a Shanahan team that has firepower and won Abington. Oh, also no matter how they've looked, keep Henderson in there.

    Teams:
    Boyertown
    Spring Ford
    Central Bucks East
    Owen J Roberts
    Great Valley
    Downingtown West
    Council Rock North
    Unionville
    Central Bucks West
    Henderson

    10 teams. Lets run through this.

    Boyertown- Can't lie, I thought they were horrendously overrated being ranked in the top 10 before Foundation. But wow, they went out and earned my respect. Incredible running from this team. Great top 3, and Smyth and Miller make a real formidable 4-5 with their resume. The way this team is set up with both front running and a sub 10 3200 runner filling out the back of their scoring, it is going to take something monumental for Boyertown to not get into states. District title contenders? Certainly possible.

    Spring Ford- These guys looked incredible at Foundation, but also have bad end of state qualifying the past two years. Despite coming short of the top 5 the past two years, I think this is finally their year. Their 4th place finish is the squads best finish in the last 3 years, compared to their 6th and 8th in 2016 and 2015. Like Boyertown, they've got the benefit of both depth and front running. They put their entire 7 in the top 61! They were by far the deepest through 7, and McKenna continue to prove he can be a legit low stick. I have them slotted in for states.

    Central Bucks East- They're in a good spot, for now. I currently don't have them slotted for a spot right now, but if you haven't already noticed, there is a lot of good teams that probably won't see the line at states. Endres is someone who has always been a good top runner for CBE, but has always seemed to just hang right outside the top tier of guys. While they did have Lahetta win the JV race who would've scored for them, that would have only moved them past OJR, which won't get the job done come districts. Something will have to change for this team in order for them to slip into the top 5, but they have the talent to keep them in the top 7 or so for sure.

    Owen J Roberts- I worry about OJR, and I currently don't have them slotted in the top 5. The best thing going for the squad is obviously Conway's amazing talent as a low stick that essentially turns most of their team battles into 4 v5's. With districts, its not as if Conway is going to gain them another 5-10 points, as he'll most likely finish 2nd-4th range. If anything, he can really only fall back as a low stick. Clutch runner though. Malmstrom is a good #2, with a nice spring resume from last year and a top 35 finish this weekend. Unless the back end of this team comes together however, they simply won't have enough firepower to get into the top 5, most likely looming with CBE in the top 7 or 8.

    Great Valley- At this rate, they probably have the lowest chance to get into states from this top 10. That being said however, of the teams that I have slotted out, they might have the best chance to sneak in. They've got an incredible pack, finishing with the best time spread by almost 10 seconds. The team's #1 at briarwood was their #5 at Foundation, so honestly its likely that their spread is even tighter than it was. this weekend. If they can't get someone from the front of the pack to step up, their best chance is to pull a CBW from last year, utilizing a 12 second time spread in the mid 16's to make it to states.

    Downingtown West-Yet to see an actual 5k from this team. They'll most likely debut at Carlisle. Their JV team gave Unionville a run for their money at Oberod, so the army is in full effect. With CRN's depth issues, I've currently got DTW slotted as my favorite for district champion. I anticipate that they'll back it up at Carlisle.


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  5. Council Rock North- I've got them slotted in the top 3 for the district right now, but they could be any of the 3 spots. They've got too much power up front for them to somehow not make states, but they're looking more vulnerable than ever after their home invite. Mullen's finish was a big sign for them, once again proving that if they all toe the line come districts (healthy), they'll come away with a W. Too much liability for me to slot them at #1 though.

    Unionville- On a good day, these guys are probably going to states. On even a slight off day, these guys are struggling to stay in the top 15. Uville has a top 5 worthy of being in the conversation of going to states, but this team is missing depth in a HUGE way. In the limited results they've provided, their #5 to #6 drop off is roughly around 70 seconds. That scares me. If this team is able to keep everyone in the top 5 healthy and on top of their game, its a great squad. if one falters in the slightest way, this team will struggle immensely. Having a strong 5 though, as well as a great top 2 studs in Conway and Walker gives them a good shot at state qualifying.

    Central Bucks West- Fresh off one of its best years in program history, CBW has a good team, but right now they don't have any specific edge to put them into the top 5. Samson is developing really well, but I wouldn't put him into any top tier quite yet, and they don't necessarily have a tight pack. Right now, they simply have the pieces to be mentioned as a good team, but unless something drastic happens (certainly possible), they most likely won't be able to sneak into the top 5 with so many good teams this year.

    Henderson- Well, here we are again. WCH is looking rather lackluster, getting taken down by Unionville and even DTW's JV team. Granted, they didn't have Smucker, who, would've gotten them into 2nd, probably 8 ish points off of Unionville. They were also missing Heck, who was a 16:30 kid as a junior last year. So despite not putting all the pieces of the puzzle together quite yet, I feel compelled to go ahead and say that they'll probably make states. I'll wait to slot them there until I see something convincing though.

    District 1 AAA:
    1. Downingtown West
    2. Boyertown
    3. Council Rock North
    4. Spring Ford
    5. Unionville
    6. Henderson
    7. Central Bucks East
    8. Great Valley
    9. Owen J Roberts
    10. Central Bucks West

    11. Don't sleep on Phoenixville now that they have Shultz...

    -FWC (I'll start tagging my posts for ya Etrain (: )

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    1. Good stuff. I'd have CBE in there over Unionville and CRN #1.

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    2. Somebody should sign this guy to a writing contract, nice depth of info

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  6. Oh wow I completely left out Shanahan. This team has so many question marks. Do the Hoey's stay committed long enough before they switch gears to track? Do Yoquinto and Mcgrory stay healthy enough to help the team? Ettien looked good at Abington, hopefully gets back to the kind of form he had his freshman year.

    UPDATED:
    District 1 AAA:
    1. Downingtown West
    2. Boyertown
    3. Council Rock North
    4. Spring Ford
    5. Unionville
    6. Bishop Shanahan
    7. Henderson
    8. Central Bucks East
    9. Great Valley
    10. Owen J Roberts
    11. Central Bucks West
    12. Phoenixville

    Also, shoutout to Oxford. Won their 2nd invite of the year over at Penncrest. Probably don't have the same level of firepower as these other teams, but they could sneak into the conversation.

    -FWC


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    1. Its a good list, but I highly doubt 4 chesmont teams will be ahead of Central Bucks East.

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    2. i really dig this list right now. thank you for your dedicated and detailed write-up :)

      DTW has depth and clear experience accrued over the past 5 years. If this were 2011 i'd be doubting them, but i think their coach and this teams consistency has earned them this #1 spot.

      Boyertown and Spring Ford both have fantastic depth, although they lack the experience at the big stage of Hershey (which i think helps them to go to Foundation). i am really rooting for both of these teams to make it to the state meet.

      CRN is looking like they are a lock imo to make states even if they have a 5th man at 17 minutes (although with the way Davies is moving up and Mullen back i'm expecting to see ~16:35 out of a 5th man. i was 17:52 at North's invitational as a senior coming off injury and i ran decent at districts in 16:44. i expect these guys to out do me). this top 4 is potent.

      Wow yeah the back end of this list is brutally tough. i'm looking at CB West in 11th and thinking "my goodness!!" because this squad is really solid from last year. And Henderson in 7th? i can't wait to see Ches-Mont's this year as a predictor towards Leagues. i think in season's past this meet has been more or less a wash for various reasons, but i would imagine that this year Ches-Mont's is center stage for many of these teams.

      -- forrestCRN aka padontplay

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  7. What happened to Southern Lehigh? So much promise after last years D11 race.

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  8. What do you think about OJR etrain? do you think they can finish top 5 at districts?

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    1. I think they definitely have a shot. They could be like CB East 2015, Lower Merion 2016, Pennsbury 2014 kind of team. To give a better feel for what that means, it's (at districts) one guy in the top 5 or so, one guy in the 20s and then the rest of your guys round out your point total in the mid 200s. I think the key will be getting one of their guys to step up and give them a mid 40s finish at the #3 spot. That's the spot on the roster that I think is most critical as of now.

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