2015: Never too Early?

Alright, alright you dragged me into it. I was going to try to wait but sometimes you have to know when to give in to the crowd. Since our cross country season is still not over, it’s not time for me to talk about track just yet, but I suppose I can give a little thought to the 2015 State Title race ….
(It’s been that kind of year for Casey Comber huh? Once again his impressive achievements end up overshadowed by other big news. Kid can’t catch a break)
I had sort of gotten used to PA sending squads to nationals, considering we sent three teams over the last three years and I had high hopes for Malvern Prep in the early season and North Allegheny in the late going, but unfortunately it wasn’t quite meant to be. Injuries and two really good NE squads left us on the sidelines when all was said and done and, although I know NA would have represented us fantastically at Nationals, there are no teams left competing this cross country season, so I figure I am allowed to consider the possibility of how good our teams could be next year.
(For the record, I think Severna Park or whatever their name is that kept winning races here in PA made it to nationals out of a Southern region which is cool for them, but I wonder how NA would handle them nowadays considering they are way better than they were at PreStates. Would NA have made it to Nats if they were in another region? I’m not really sure if I know the answer to that, but it’s an interesting question at least).
I took a close look at all the teams from states and the non-state teams from the districts that use runhigh for results to analyze who returns what. If class years are wrong on these sites I apologize in advance.
(What I’m going to miss the most about the WPIAL moving their district championships out of Coopers? They are probably ditching runhigh! I love runhigh results, it took me about 2 seconds to figure out what teams should be on my radar for next year thanks to those guys. And seriously I’m not sponsored by them).
To begin, I would be naive to not mention the fact that state champs North Allegheny may lose their top three runners, but they return their next four and have a ton of depth. This team has placed in the top five at states every year since 2006 (the only team to boast this resume over that span) and have placed in the top three every year since 2007 with the exception of 2012 (4th). No matter what they lose they are contenders. And for the record they return a nice pack already. Jacob Stupak killed the final mile of the state championship and ended up in the top 50. Dieble came on strong at season’s end and TJ Robinson was just a freshman. This team was secretly deep this past year and if they can get a breakout star (like Gil in 2008 or Zemet in 2012) they will be very dangerous.
That being said, the favorites will likely come from District One. District One, who has won all the non-North Allegheny state titles since 2004, consistently produces state title threats. In 2015, the likely leader of the pack in D1 is Downingtown West. Recently, news broke that the Hoey brothers (all three) are going to be attending DT West by next cross country season (and possibly sooner), meaning that the 4th place team in the state just picked up one of the best runners in the region, possibly the best freshman in the state, and possibly the best incoming freshman for 2015.
Not that they needed the help of course. DTWest was already returning breakout star Henry Sappey, who delivered consistently at Carlisle, Leagues, Districts and States (leading the team with his 10th place finish). Sappey is the #2 returner from the state championships in Hershey behind newly crowned course record holder Jake Brophy. Ryan Barton, as just a sophomore, placed 36th at the state championship, a huge #2 performance. Ryherd, O’Neill and Bullock each played pivotal roles at various meets during the season. They were one of the best teams through 7 runners all season, had an excellent crop of JV talent and their best runner from districts last year, Drew Alansky, was out all season.
I’m not a fortune teller by any means, but the potential here is mind blowing. In an ideal scenario, you have Jaxson Hoey competing for a state title with Sappey alongside. Alansky comes back and is able to duplicate the jump made by Barton. Josh Hoey continues to improve and makes a solid leap from freshman to sophomore. The pack of 7-10 guys competing just to make it on to varsity propels one of the pack to a huge season. Something along the lines of 2-5-15-24-25 for their scoring five seems possible (and that’s overall, I’m not talking team scoring), which would make West the best PA team since Coatesville (who somehow went 3-6-8-12-18 in a real good year for PA … that’s how you win a national championship).
But let’s slow the hype train down here a bit. There are a few questions for DT West as they struggled last at Districts and barely made it through to states (where they had a fantastic bounce back race). This team appears to be a true XC squad, perfect for states running but possibly making things difficult at Lehigh. Behind Sappey, the team struggled a bit with consistency. They need a big day from the 2 spot to help set the tone for the pack. There is also no guarantee that Alansky will come back and be 100%. Injuries are a part of the game and Jaxson and Alansky among others have already felt that pain. A badly timed injury or fall can ruin anyone’s season.
However, it does seem they will have a fix for many of these issues next year. They add speed with Jaxson and they get a lot older next year as their sophomores become juniors. Think WC Henderson in 2012 kind of development. They have a ton of depth and could probably rest guys at districts if everything goes well (again like Henderson 2012). The comparisons to some of PA’s ever teams will be floating around over the summer and, hopefully for DT West, in December as well.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the beginnings of a DT West dynasty lies within the district. Many may not realize this, but CB West was winning the state championship at the mile marker and right in the hunt at 2 miles. I don’t think anyone was beating NA that day, but a more conservative race from an inexperienced West team could have landed them in a surprise 2nd place. It was the first time CB West qualified for states in my memory, and quite possibly the first time in school history so nerves were bound to be high.
What’s encouraging is, despite their late fade, they were still a hard fought 6th, very close to finishing 5th and they return five guys for next year including their top three of Fortna, Iatarola and McDonald. Iatarola and McDonald had a big days at states, impressive considering they were just sophomores. Fortna has the potential to be a front runner. He seems to be a bit more of a speed runner considering his excellent mile time last spring and his strong race at districts, but with an additional year of experience as a top tier runner, he may grow into a top 10 threat by 2015. The team also should get Brian Mass back to full strength next year, another sophomore making the soph to junior jump that tends to produce serious improvements in the right runner.
They had a loaded JV last year, including McClenethan who I believe was the JV champ. If you take away the Hoeys, CB West and DT West appear very evenly matched on paper (in my opinion anyway). Both teams have solid depth, potential at the front, a piece waiting in the wings, and some very talented sophomores who could make a jump.
However, if you drop 2-3 guys with potential to be top 50 in the state next year including a potential state champion onto one of those two teams, it changes the game a bit.
Coming tomorrow: O’Hara, Cumberland Valley, LaSalle and more! The teams looking to crash the party in 2015.   

12 comments:

  1. This comment is based mostly on what I’ve picked up on the blogs, so it could be inaccurate since the blogs haven’t always been say, 100% correct. But, I’m not sure if I were the DWest coach whether to be excited or cautious. He’s already got a solid program that did very well this year and seemed destined to contend for state champs for the next few. Now he’s just had a ton of talent dropped in the teams lap, but with it appears to come some baggage. Not with the runners, but the outside influences who insist on having a say. He already has a couple of stage parents and if now the poor guy has to run a big program with several parents completing to exert influence he’s got a real challenge. If they’re in his ear all the time, while he’s trying to keep them happy he’s going to end up hearing it also from a lot of otherwise quiet parents who think their kids are now getting screwed while the others get preferential treatment. Probably best to lay down the rules immediately, stress that absolutely no one is above the rules, and have the guts to enforce them. Tough job while trying to coach too.

    For an optimist the coach just hit the lottery, but for a realist hitting the lottery doesn’t always equate to success and happiness. So, good luck, you’re only now expected to win States in at least the next two or three years!

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    1. ^ There's probably a lot more to the story but there's no reason to think it won't work out nicely at Dwest. They will be scary good next year, Sappey is there, Barton/O'neil on the rise, Alansky back, several others with potential and now add 3 Hoeys. Scary good.

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    2. Yeah, I really feel bad for the DWest coach. All that pressure to succeed......That reminds me; I once had a person tell me he felt bad for Bill Gates' children as no matter what they did, they will never surpass their father. Poor kids, your heart really goes out to them. Poor DWest coach; you really feel bad for the guy with all that pressure. ;)

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  2. It feels a Bit like when the heat got Lebron and bosh

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  3. Obviously so much can happen in a year, but it is really hard to see anything else but DTW running away with Chesmonts, Henderson a distant 2nd, then the rest of the Chesmont league way behind all fighting for 3rd.

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    1. Although I love Xc talk, the more the better, there's nothing worse to me than jumping to conclusions. You're right, as of right now, that seems to be the most likely. But there is TOO much time to jump to conclusions. It would be one thing if this were Delco's, and we were talking about O'hara repeating as league champs, were talking about the Chesmot league. Although over the past 2 or 3 years, Henderson has predominately been on top, and now DTW looks like they have the potential to start a dynasty, too much can happen with so many successful programs. Teams can rise and fall in an instant. Shanahan, Rustin, and Coatesville are all teams on the rise after having droughts in terms of team success over the past few years. Rustin finished 3rd at Chesmonts, the programs best finish prior to this year dating back to 2007 was 7th! Even teams that are known for great programs, such as WCE, Great Valley, Avon Grove, Downingtown East, and Unionville. It's all about patterns of consistency in Xc these days, not about who has the best year. Any defending state champ that graduates 6 of their 7 and still goes back to finish 8th at states is a consistent team. That is why right now, Henderson is the best program in the Chesmont league right now. But as I said, things can change.

      Now I'm going to completely contradict everything I just said and make predictions because its entertaining, and good for the sake of conversation. If anyone remembers how Cummings did an individual preview for every team last summer, I'm going to do a shortened version of that.

      DTW
      Well, as the hot topic right now, the transferring of the Hoey's is either going to help gel the team as a powerhouse, or corrupt it. However, there comes a time where dominance is too overpowering. The DTW was a favorite for the district title before, and even if the Hoey's hurt the team chemistry, they're still incredibly talented, lets be honest here. So yes, although we have a year in front of us, the DTW squad is going to have little competition for at least the beginning of the season, if not all of it.

      Henderson
      I'll watch everyone say that they've finally lost too much talent to overcome, and then watch them claw back up into state contention. Spencer Smucker is scary good. People know he's good, but I don't people realize the extent. YOu throw in Berkman, Deshmukh, Mcswain, and Weller, you already got yourself a solid team to work with.

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    2. Rustin
      I really hope that this past season wasn't a fluke. All they're left with is Carmody and Hontz, but they do have Warner as a third guy, hopefully they'll find the necessary guys to fill back up they're varsity squad, but unfortunately, as I like to call it now, footlocker year with Hontz and Carmody, rather than an NXN year as a team.

      Downingtown East
      I am a huge fan of this team into the upcoming year. They only lose 2 of their top 7, and its their numbers 1 and 6 man. The Dylan's, McEvoy and Jackson are coming off of sub 17 seasons as sophmores, which means we can expect DTE with two great front runners for their squad. This team can only get better from last year.

      WCE
      Well, from what I've seen, they seem like an enthusiastic team. They seem to have many guys under 18, they only graduate Diestelow from their varsity team, so what's the problem. Diestelow. This teams depth will carry it semi far next season, with Dougherty, Moser, Brennan, and Hoyos leading the way. I just don't see this pack all being under 17:10 or so next year, and although this pack has the potential to be dangerous, I think there lack of a front runner will haunt them, and they simply might need another year or two in order to get more than one guy in the 16's.

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    3. Unionville
      This team had the potential be much better this past season. They had great potential with a solid pack of Stautberg, Andes, and Fisher running behind Delveechio. Although the team gets to keep their top guy, they lose they're 2 3 4. Next in line becomes Lopapa and the freshman Nate Talley. I believe both guys can be great next season, but the amount of loss Unionville has might catch up to them next year.

      Great Valley
      Not too sure about where to put Great Valley. They also graduated 6 of their 7 varsity guys after the 2013 season like Henderson, but still managed to scrap together a decent team. Like WCE, GV has a lot of guys under 18. but they're lack of a front man might haunt them. Their packs do tend run well with each other as the season progresses, so I'm not completely counting them out. They're top returner next year will be the current sophomore Scotty Peduto, which is where they will have to most likely refer to for a front runner.

      Bishop Shanahan
      Another team I'm really big on for this upcoming year. They're only losing one of their top 7, which is their number 6 man. Having your whole scoring team return is always convenient. All 5 runners, Breslin, Fromhartz, Kolimago, Kelly, and Yoquinto all have the potential to step up and lead their team next year.

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    4. Avon Grove
      This is quietly one of the most consistent team in the Chesmont league. They do lose Josh Smith, Matt Jacobs, and JC Budd, but they have Ilgenfritz and Chapla returning, and they have some young talent in Noah Dusseau and Shae Christensen, the top freshman for the team. You put those 4 together and throw in O'haire as a 5th man, ad once again, you've got a decent team.

      Coatesville
      Unfortunately for this team, they lose 5 of their 7 guys next year. Ettien started off the season this year with guns a blazing, but never really improved all that much. This team still has the number of guys to rebuild, but I wouldn't expect a Coatesville team as strong as we saw this year.

      Kennett
      Austin Maxwell. Austin Maxwell. Oh, and Austin Maxwell. Not too much going for this team as they lose their other top guy jon Ganly. Behind Maxwell they do have 2 guys under 18, so who knows, maybe this team can make a small pack behind Maxwell and make things happen.

      Welp, this was a good way to keep me from doing homework, so I hope you all enjoyed, I enjoyed writing these and I just wrote them for the sake of conversation. If anyone really would like me to, I will happily write previews for Sun Valley, Oxford, and Octorara if requested. Good luck to all competing this winter in track!

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    5. ^
      Dwest - cut the crap, they were probably the favorites going in anyway, now they're a slam dunk. They can even cover injuries. They'll all get along, the parents will find their places and kumbaya will prevail
      WCH - Don't have much, which means they'll take 3rd at district, 6th at states.
      Rustin-Missed there chance this year due to injury. Carmoday and Hontz are good, but not true footlocker material.
      DEast-Some potential but not enough to make states
      WCE-Depleted
      GV-Rebuilding
      Others-middle of the road teams.
      - JEB

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