District One Predictions

By etrain11

The Intro by xx (for predictions, skip to predictions)

The District One Championships! What a wonderfully exciting event. I’ve had the privilege of participating in this event just once, back in 2010, when my relays ran 7:59 and 3:23, both under the SQS and both should have missed finals (I’ll get back to this shortly), let alone a top 8 spot to states. I’ve been to this meet 6 times as a spectator/runner/alternate (2008-2013) and each time there are new results that amaze me.

Before throwing ourselves into predictions, it’s important to understand a bit about the uniqueness of the event. The performance list is really more of a “qualifiers list” as the D1 Championships allow for scratches in all events (unlike most district meets/the state meet where if you scratch you’re done). Any coach who is being strategically sound might as well enter every athlete that qualified into every event they qualified for because there are no repercussions for scratching and anything can happen on race day. For example, in 2010 WC Henderson was one of the favorites for state gold in the 4x8. However, on the first day of the event in the first heat of the day, there were 4 teams tightly bunched on the final straightaway with just 3 automatic qualifying spots on the line (I believe the teams were Strath Haven, Penncrest, Souderton and Henderson). The ensuing rush to ensure a spot in the finals there was a bump from Henderson’s anchor Will Kellar with Penncrest’s anchor Tres Moore and it resulted in a DQ for Henderson (the fall took out Moore as well, meaning the team currently running in 5^th with 50m to go, which was my aforementioned Upper Dublin squad, ended up third and earned a spot in the finals that we really didn’t deserve. Penncrest was added to the finals on appeal, making it a 13 team final).

With Henderson’s 4x8 now out of the state meet, they were happy they had entered everyone everywhere they had qualified as Will Kellar and Luke Lefebure ended up getting spots to states in the 1600m and 800m respectively (events they may have originally been planning to scratch from to focus on the relay) and other runners like Khattabi and Zengel got a chance to chase individual marks and pursue individual state qualifying. The next weekend at states Kellar wins state gold in the 16 and Lefebure runs 1:51 as a Junior for silver behind Mallon. The moral of the story: enter your guys everywhere! You never know what will happen.

The other tricky thing with District One is the fact that the meet runs both trials and finals in every event besides the 3200m (the same set up as the state championship although it appears that this year the meet is set up as Thursday-Saturday with a rest day in between unlike the past where districts was held on back to back days). As far as I know, it is the only district that has this set up (and it’s the only district big enough and deep enough to warrant this set up). That makes doubling harder than most districts and more taxing looking ahead to states. However, I also think it makes the D1 guys stronger and more prepared for the scheduled at Shippensburg and it ensures the best racers are representing the district. Speaking of which, remember that only the top 8 in each event can qualify for states: even if guys 9-12 hit the SQS they still aren’t packing their bags. This is true for all districts of course, but honestly I can rarely remember, if ever, it mattering anywhere outside of D1. In D1 it matters all the time.

Despite this fact, I honestly don’t think the system is broken for track. I like the set up and I think that, ultimately, it’s fair. Sure there will be cases every year where top cases slip up at districts and don’t get to represent their team at states, but in general, the best and most fit athletes are sent to states and there is not a need for one district to send 15 guys to states. We are sending 8 guys, which is plenty. Not everyone gets to go to states, it sucks, but it’s the way it is. I never qualified for districts individually in high school even though I probably could have made states in another district. I have no regrets: I would not have become as strong or as passionate of a runner anywhere else. The only solution I would consider would be splitting D1 into two districts, I think that would be a good idea but I have no idea if logistically this is at all possible.

Predictions
For those of you who skipped the intro (probably 90% of you), welcome! Let’s get right down to it. I’ll be going in order of event starting with Day 1, predicting the finalists in each event and then projecting that forward into my state qualifying predictions for Day 2 (might end up coming in a different post Thursday night/Friday, I have a feeling this post will be long). As always, comments and opinions are appreciated.

 4x800m

Tier One Finalists (8)- Pennsbury, CB West, CB East, Abington, Pennridge, DT West, Wissahickon, Penncrest
Assuming each of these teams does not unexpectedly skip the relay to pursue individual goals (DT West is the only team where I could possibly see this happening), I’d be quite surprised to see any of them on the outside looking in for the finals.

That locks down 8 spots, leaving 4 left over for the finals. My contenders list would be: CR North, Radnor, Spring Ford, Cheltenham, CB South, Bishop Shanahan, Perk Valley, Strath Haven, Upper Dublin, HG Prep with long shots including Neshaminy, DT East, Quakertown, Rustin, Pottsgrove and Bensalem. Anyone outside of this group would certainly be an unexpected finalist but admittedly I’ve just named practically everyone in the field.

CR North has looked quite good over the last two week stretch that included Henderson, Neshaminy, and Suburbans. They have a slew of mid 4:20s guys which clearly translates to a slew of 2 flatish guys considering they ran 8:01. Heintz came on strong with a 4:23 at leagues and Arita has been consistently solid all year, even if it appears he’s more strength than speed. I like North to return to the finals for the second straight year in D1, my only possible concern is they may be too strength based and not enough speed based which is why they fell out of Tier One.

Cheltenham could definitely make the finals. They are an intriguing team because I’m not sure what Lewis can do. I suppose he is probably going to try the 400m-800m double (incredibly difficult) because the 300mH is right in between those two events. Basically, unless Lewis is going to just run one individual event and the 4x4 (not impossible) he will be trying some absurd double. So why not run the 4x8? I have no doubt they could run sub 8 minutes. All that being said, I see them leaving Lewis off the squad and chasing their state title somewhere else.

I really like Radnor’s one-two punch of Andre Kelly and Connor Holm. Those are two guys who can give you legs well under 2 minutes and considering this squad has already clocked 8:03 and was a district finalist a year ago, I feel reasonably strong about putting them through.

Perk Valley is one of my sleepers to advance. I really like this team and they have Matt Town, 1:57.1 this season, to lead them out front. However, at leagues they were beat out by Spring Ford and Paul Power and it’s possible that Power will be willing to donate a leg to the 4x8 at districts and try and help his teammates out. However, it’s probably more likely that Power goes for the 16-32 double so Spring Ford is out. The other squad from that dog fight, Pottsgrove, could also advance if they have a strong day behind Sean O’Brien.

Upper Dublin, Bensalem, Strath Haven and Holy Ghost Prep are proven programs in this event. UD the last few years has had some lucky breaks and found themselves in one of the slower qualifying heats and right in the mix. If they get that break again this year, they could advance: there team has shown solid potential recently. HG Prep looks like a team that would really benefit from the extra competition at districts, they dominated their league championships. Haven has been a bit up and down this season but has delivered in some big spots and has a deep squad of capable legs. I’m not sure I see Bensalem loading up this relay, but they may surprise me. If so, they have the history and the horsepower to crack the top 12.

CB South and Bishop Shanahan may be my favorite squads on the sleeper scale. CB South is well coached at middle distance and has come on strong in recent weeks. There is a chance they scrap this 4x8 and go after things individually, but there is also a chance they break through to close the gap on 8 minutes. Shanahan is also a strong team waiting for the right race to have a moment. I’m not sure they have faced ideal competition in recent weeks so maybe things break right.

Bottom line: Here are my 12 projected finalists …

Pennsbury, CB West, CB East, Abington, Pennridge, DT West, Wissahickon, CR North, Radnor, Bishop Shanahan, Holy Ghost Prep and Penncrest

1600m

This event is always tricky to call because there are potential for so many scratches considering the 4x8 and the open 8 and the 32 all have strong overlap with this event. Just take a quick look at the list’s top 12 seeds and the events I could see them scratching for: Power (32, 4x8), Comber (32), Eddinger (800), Hoey (800, 4x8), Marston (32), Fortna (4x8), Hoey (4x8), Diestelow (32), Barton (4x8), Sauer (4x8, 800), Webb (4x8, 32), Perlman (32). That could turn this field from loaded to wide open in a second. Here’s my best guess at who stays and who goes from the top group:

Stays

Power- He’s the top seed and he can run the trials of the 16 then try the 32 and 16 double the next day without much issue. I’d be stunned to see him outside of the top 5 in the 32 so why not go for both, especially when the 16 isn’t until after the deuce.

Eddinger- Up until a week or two ago, I would have thought he was a lock to scratch, but after that 4:14 I think he probably changes his mind. I could definitely see a 16-8 double from Eddinger during district weekend and I think he could do well at it.

Marston- He did the 16, 32 double last year when I wasn’t expecting it. Wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again applying the same logic. He’s a bit more sketchy, however, because this year he is way more of a title threat in the 32 than he was a year ago and the 32 is a lot less crowded than it was a year ago.

Diestelow- The 16 is his best and favorite event as far as I can tell. I’d be stunned to see him scratch out of this one.

Perlman- Borderline states case in both the 16 and the 32 as things currently stand. The best strategy is to maximize your opportunities in that case so I’d think he runs the trials and then makes a decision on if the 32 is worth going in.

Goes

Comber- For some reason, I just get the impression that he is going to not even bother with this event. He could maybe win it (he crushed the field en route to his 4:14), but I’m not sure he’s concerned about that. Complete shot in the dark, but I say he scratches.

Fortna- I think the relay is the priority here. Assuming they make finals, I would think he is out.

Sauer- Can’t see him choosing this event over the open 8, I’d be stunned to see him on the start line

Webb- Call it a hunch again, but I think Webb is leaning towards the 32-4x8 double. It’s not easy, but he’s done it before and he seems to be more of a two miler than miler. That being said, he’s had plenty of success in this event this season and could certainly pull off the 4x8-16 double if he feels that better supports his team goals.

Don’t have a read on it
Everyone in a DT West uniform- No idea what the plan is for the Hoeys + Barton (and Sappey as well). Jaxson has the best shot of qualifying for states in a different event (his 1:53 in the open 8 makes him a strong contender) while Josh and R Bar would have to do the 16 to have a realistic shot at states individually. That’s a hard double after the 4x8 and a lot of racing for a frosh and a soph to do if the team is serious about contending for a top medal at states. I could see everybody in it or everybody out of it depending on if the mindset in the lockerroom is “we think Pennsbury is beatable, let’s win a state championship”. If I absolutely have to make a choice, I think all three guys are signing up and giving it a shot.

Other interesting questions: Is Jimmy Cook going to run Rustin’s 4x8? Cook is a solid 4:23 guy who could certainly compete for a spot in the finals, but Rustin’s 4x8 is a bit of an untapped talent that has the potential to drop quite a bit of time in the right race. If Cook runs a hard leg on the 4x8 he will be sort of zapped for the 16, but if he stays fresh he should be a contender.

This same question could also be applied to Tucker Desko, Tyji Mays, Ben Heintz, Connor Holm and Matt Scarpill who all could be key players on 4x800m squads. My gut says Heintz and Holm scratch out assuming their squad makes finals, Scarpill is a borderline case largely dependent on CB South’s finalist case and Mays and Desko will be in this race fresh (Bensalem doesn’t load the relay and Desko doesn’t run the trials for Pennridge). But that’s purely speculation.

Joe Maguire should be an interesting watch as well. He could stay fresh for the 32 (probably his best shot at state qualifying) or he could give the 16 a shot to maximize his chances at qualifying for states (similar to what I said for Perlman). Hard to guess, but he probably tries his hand in the 16, especially considering the extra days rest on the schedule.

So with all this in mind, who is making the finals?

Tier One (5): Power, Eddinger, Jax Hoey, Marston, Diestelow

I expect all these guys to go through without an incredible amount of trouble.
Tier Two (4): Josh Hoey, Perlman, Desko, Barton
I think they all get through, but I’m nervous for each guy for a variety of reasons. For some it is that looming 4x8 double (not an easy double) for others it’s a bit of inexperience and potential that they scratch out for another event.
Last three guesses: Mays, Cook and Maguire
Again, not sure what the doubling/scratching will look like, but these 3 guys fresh appear to be the best options for the finals of the remaining guys that I don’t have projected to be scratches.

Sleepers would include Holm and Scarpill (again depending on doubling and scratches), PJ Murray from Conestoga and Michael DelVecchio and Kent Hall from Unionville.

800m

As mentioned, I’m really not sure what the plan is for John Lewis, and he’s the man that likely shapes the title picture in three different individual events at this point. Honestly, I think it will be either the 4-8 double or simply the open 8 for Lewis in terms of individual events. Either way, that gets him a slot in the finals.

Some names I expect to scratch from the open 8: Jax Hoey (although it’s up in the air given his 16 status), Jake Brophy, Casey Comber

Also strong possibilities for scratches: Rock Fortna, Oliver Boucher, Ata Shahideh, Andrew Baker, Jake Claricurzio, Soham Komat depending again on 4x8 status.

Something else worth noting: despite the fact that Penncrest has consistently been one of the best mid-distance programs in the state, I’m not sure they have produced a state qualifier in the open 8 in the last decade or so (I’d have to check the numbers). That means it’s at least possible Emmanuel follows the trend and scratches out to focus on the 4x8. It’s possible, but it’s unlikely to me.

There will be plenty of doublers in this event, basically across the board and that makes predicting a final tricky. It’s going to come down largely to which guys can double well and which guys can reserve something in the 4x8 prelims. Ultimately here’s who I have advancing:

Tier One (4): Lewis, Sauer, Emmanuel, Eddinger
Even on the double, these guys have proven themselves as top tier studs, I expect them to advance.
Tier Two (2): Jihad, Nelson
I’m a bit nervous about Jihad’s freshman status and the fact that Nelson was something of a 32 runner last year, but regardless I think these two seem like logical choices for the finals on fresh legs
Tier Three (4): Boucher, Holm, Williams, Wolfinger
These are basically some doublers I think are excellent runners, but I’m unsure how they will handle this moment. I think they all advance.

I think the last two spots in the finals could really surprise people. In theory CB West’s 5^th best 800m man in Bowen could slip into the finals with a 1:58ish type of time, especially if there are as many scratches/tired legs as I think there might be. At the end of the day, my last two picks are basically just hunches but a variety of runners could earn the spot.

Last two: McGinnis, Johnson

Some sleepers include Conway, Shahideh, Kelly, Fromhartz and O’Brien among others.

Because this post was so long and I have an extra day to throw together a second post in between trials and finals, I will make my official state predictions after seeing Thursday’s results. However, I will make some picks now to hold you over. These picks are obviously subject to change based on how things play out in the coming days. The picks to qualify for states in no particular order (they will be next post) are as follows:

4x800m (8): Pennsbury, Penncrest, Pennridge, CB East, CB West, Abington, Wissahickon, DT West

1600m (6): Power, Jax Hoey, Eddinger, Diestelow, Marston, Perlman
800m (8): Lewis, Sauer, Emmanuel, Eddinger, Nelson, Boucher, Jihad, Johnson
3200m (6): Brophy, Marston, Comber, Webb, Power, Knapp