The 3200m Preview

by etrain11

AA 3200m

The Setting

A year ago, sophomore Dominic Hockenbury went out and dominated the field at the AA State Championships in the 3200m, winning by nearly 100m over fellow sophomores Will Kachman and Will Loevner. He followed it up with an XC title at Hershey and then a runner up finish at the indoor state championships for 3000m. As he steps out onto the track this weekend, he looks poised to become the first back to back champion since Joe Beveridge in 2007-2008 and probably has his eyes on the state meet record of 9:04.09, set back in 1997 by Chris Dugan. As just a junior, a third state gold and a state record performance would solidify Hock as one of the state’s best ever before he even steps into first period of his Senior year.

But standing in his way is one of the deepest state championship 3200m that AA states has ever featured and although Hockenbury comes in with the fastest PR by over 10 seconds, his time with championship belt may be winding to a close. The man emerging as DH’s primary competitor is senior Griffin Molino from South Williamsport who has run 9:17 and 4:14 this spring while boasting multiple state golds in cross country. Molino, who is also entered in the 1600m, blasted out the gates last spring, running 4:12 for 1600m, but faded down the stretch and finished 2^nd in both of his districts races, followed by a tough showing at the state championships. This year he has been determined to better prepare and peak for Shippensburg, and things appear to be going well. He won both of his races at districts and added a massive season best with his 4:14.70 win. A state championship on the track would round out a truly remarkable resume on the fall trails and a victory would surely be sweet redemption for a year ago.

The WPIAL championships featured a 3200m that was at a state caliber level as the A team champions Winchester Thurston sent through 3 runners to the state championships, including Will Loevner, who finished in the top 3 a year ago and in the top 5 for cross country this fall at states. All three Winchester runners are returning next year. However, the top two spots from the district meet came from sophomore Griffin Mackey and senior Sean Hilverding who will come in as the top two seeds thanks to their 9:25 and 9:30 runs last week. Mackey has been lights out this season and has yet to face any true challengers at the AA level this outdoors. He was third at A states in XC and his time at Hershey put him among the top sophomores ever for the course.

As mentioned, this is one of the deepest fields the state has seen and when you consider the talent at the front, this could be one of the fastest top to bottom AA 3200ms ever. Among the chase pack contenders are Simon Smith from Towanda, Jack DiCintio from Wyomssing, Cooper Leslie from Camp Hill and Brent Leber from Shenango. Plus, although their seed times leave them buried on the depth chart, keep an eye on Will Kachman from Bedford, Liam Raehsler from Clarion Area and Bryce Descavish from Central Cambria.

The Analysis

Hockenbury is the top dog by seed and the defending champion. He proved last year he was comfortable pushing the pace and running alone and in many of his big meets this year, he has made key mid race surges that have really helped make the race. That being said, he has sometimes paid for those surges in the closing stages of races as he was outkicked at indoor states and bested by a few AAA standouts at Henderson. I have to imagine the 9:04 record is on Hockenbury’s mind and so too is the 4:12 speed of Molino. This somewhat reminds me of the Shearn-Galassi matchup we received in 2012 and 2013: Shearn took the title as a Junior while Rico got him back the next year in the wind.

I don’t want to undersell the season that Griffin Mackey is having by making this all about Molino and Hockenbury, because Mackey has been an absolute stud this season. Most years he would be an easy pick for gold. However, I can’t see him beating out Hock, Hock just seems too strong and too locked in. Mackey could certainly beat Molino in a variety of scenarios. I don’t anticipate Mackey backing down from Hock’s challenge so if Molino either hangs back too long or can’t take the blistering early pace, Mackey may be able to come away with silver.

Honestly, I see Molino has having a huge day. I’m not sure he’s fit enough to run 9:05, but I could definitely see him clocking sub 9:10 and that may end up being good enough. Can Hockenbury win this race wire to wire, pushing the whole way? Or maybe Hock chooses to stay conservative for a mile and then kill laps 5, 6 and 7 to put the field away (very plausible). As exciting as the AAA 3200 should be, this race has plenty of intrigue itself.

Not sure I can justify anybody else in my top 3. As mentioned, unless one of these top guys crumbles under a potentially grueling pace, I think they are the class of the field. That being said, this field is loaded with talent. Kachman was 2^nd a year ago and has proven he rises to the occasion at big meets. At Ship against Mackey he had a strong run to get down under 9:30 and prove his contender status isn’t going anywhere. He has 1600m trials the day before, but I believe he made that double last year so I’m not too concerned.

Will Loevner has had some really strong stretches to a career, but this spring has been a bit up and down at times. I remember he had stretch similar to this during cross where he was dealing with some injuries/sickness and then he rounded into form at the perfect time and delivered for the team champs at districts and states. This past week was his best race of the year in my opinion thus far, so perhaps we will see him take another mini leap at states and jump by Hilverding and co.

It’s going to be a real dog fight for the medal spots in this one. I’ve been very high on what I’ve seen from Bryce Descavish so far this spring and if he runs to his potential he will turn heads in this meet. Simon Smith is always strong and he has quite the impressive track record for the big meets. Hard to pick against him in this spot. Liam Raeshler has also had a really nice season in District 9. Same goes for Cooper Leslie who surprised me a bit with the move up to the 3200m, I thought his sweet spot was more at 16 (he’s running that too to be fair). And of course lastly is Jack DiCintio who destroyed the final few weeks of XC by turning it on to grab 2^nd at states behind Hockenbury. If he’s on, he could have a phenomenal breakthrough in this race, but he does have a key leg on one of the state’s best 4x8s looming after this race and that could play a role.

Predictions

My personal top 3 is pretty clear, but after that I’m at a total loss. It’s hard to pick against guys who’ve been super clutch in the past, but I have a hard time figuring out where some newcomers at the top like Leber, Hay, Littman, Wilcko are going to fit in. Ultimately, after being my head against the wall, here’s how I rank it.

1. Griffin Molino 9:09.15

2. Dominic Hockenbury 9:09.88
3. Griffin Mackey 9:15.32
4. Simon Smith 9:22.63
5. Jack DiCintio 9:25.74
6. Will Loevner 9:27.82
7. Will Kachman 9:28.36
8. Sean Hilverding 9:30.17

Sleepers

I’ve already mentioned Descavish as probably tops on my board. Definitely don’t sleep on Wilcko and Raeshler who are down the performance list but won their races at districts in somewhat conservative efforts. Didn’t even mention Zach Skolnekovich who is a stud from a great program in Quaker Valley and Ben Littman probably deserves a bit more play after he ran so well this past XC at states, finishing in the top 10 for Winchester Thurston.

AAA 3200m

The Setting
Last year’s AAA boys 3200m state championship was perhaps the greatest 3200m race in PA history. It featured Ross Wilson winning the race in a meet record time of 8:56 (#3 AT) over Tony Russell of Henderson who also went under the old record. Colin Martin added an 8:59.90 to put three runners under 9 minutes. It was the first time PA had ever had two sub 9s in the same YEAR let alone the same race. And they had three. At the time they graduated Wilson, Russell and Martin were #3, #4 and #9 on the PA all-time list according the etrain vault.

Then 2015 happened. During a year that started with the fastest cross country race in state history (3 boy s under Tony Russell’s course record with a record number sub 16), we saw the first sub 9 by a Junior in state history, followed closely by the fastest WPIAL 3200m performance of all time, giving PA two sub 9 3200m runners before the state championships even began. Matt McGoey comes in with an 8:56.43 PR to his name, a mark that is currently believed to be the largest margin of victory for a sub 9 in state history. Jake Brophy holds an 8:57.68. Andrew Marston sits at 9:01.25, Kevin James at 9:03.19, and Casey Comber at 9:04.04. The top five seeds in the race by PR would be clear favorites for the state title almost any other year, but this year they are just part of the crowd.

16 members of the field have PRs of 9:20 or faster including a mind-numbing 7 runners with PRs at 9:09 or faster. The top 6 runners from the AAA XC state meet will all be on the starting line for this event with an astounding 15 of the 25 AAA state medalists being involved. Out of the top 14 runners from the state meet, 12 are on the performance list. At least 8 runners hold 1600m PRs under 4:17. At least four have run 1:55 or faster this year. On paper, it may be the greatest field ever assembled for a distance race.

The most intriguing development for me as a fan of the history of the sport is the fact that Zach Brehm is attempting to win the 3200m. Assuming he goes all out in this race and doesn’t simply run for points, he could end up winning the 800m-1600m-3200m in three consecutive years. At the AAA level, I’m not sure anyone has ever won all three titles over the course of their careers. To do it, he would have to beat the greatest collection of distance runners the state can offer.

The Analysis

I’ll say this right off the bat, as long as this race gets out in 4:32 or faster, I can’t imagine the winning time starting with 9. Wilson’s record may survive (8:56.29 is still faster than everyone in the field’s PR) and I certainly feel it’s safer than the 800m meet records. I still think there’s a chance this thing gets out slow enough that sub 9 doesn’t happen, but it’s a slim chance.

If I’m taking a look at general tactics, I get the feeling McGoey and Brophy are both not interested in controlling the pace early and probably are each feeling confident in their closing speed. There’s a long, long list of reasons why Brehm wants this thing to be as slow as possible so don’t count on seeing him up front. Not sure Comber would be particularly interesting in taking it early on either, he’s run some pretty convincing 1600m in recent weeks and gave Hoey a nice little push in the district 1600m.

That being said, Abert has never been shy about hammering the pace and Kevin James hasn’t been afraid of pushing the limits either (although it’s worth noting his 800m and 1600m PRs only trail Brehm). Power took the reins at Districts and provided some key surges at Henderson so he probably would be in the mix, especially in the middle section of the race, helping keep things close to 9 minutes. Plus, in general, I’m sure the borderline guys to the 9 minute barrier want to break it. Not more than they want to win a state championship I’m sure, but it’s hard to be sitting a few seconds away and not want to push for a shot at history.  

As I’ve believe I’ve made fairly clear, this race is incredibly deep and talented. That being said, the guys who I expect to medal stand out fairly clearly to me, more so than any other race. That group, in order by seed is: McGoey, Brehm, Power, Brophy, Marston, Comber, Abert and James. If I’m a gambling man, that’s my eight. I’ll discuss sleepers at the end, but for now let’s focus on this group.

McGoey- His 8:56 is incredibly impressive. He dominated that field and from the sounds of things, he didn’t really turn it on until he realized how close to breaking 9 minutes he was on the last 2 laps or so. Plus the way he’s been talking it seems like he feels he has something to prove. The hype surrounding Henderson and all the eastern schools may have got him a bit angry/motivated and that extra fire is dangerous. Throw in the fact that he has won a state championship already, comes from a top flight program and has a lethal kick and he has earned favorite status.

Side note, just because I like numbers, the indoor state champ at 3k has not repeated outdoors since 2007. The last three to start the race outdoors finished 3^rd, 8^th and 5^th.

Brehm- The theme with Zach Brehm is that he still hasn’t been pushed to his limits. He’s proven in the past he peaks well, is tactically sound and can carry a big workload for his Carlisle team. But he doesn’t boast anywhere near the PRs of the top tier in the 32 and his season best in the 1600m and 800m aren’t turning heads or dropping jaws. Brehm apparently looked quite comfortable in his 9:09 winning effort at districts, which was a 10 second PR. The guy is a winner first and foremost, but there is legit concern about whether or not he can handle the blistering pace this race is expected to take on. Especially considering he will have (at least) two races under his belt for the meet by the time the gun sounds.

Side note, Brehm’s highest finish in XC was 9^th this past spring. Of the past 8 state champions at 3200m, only two of them (Unionville’s Matt Fischer and Glenn Burkhardt) didn’t place in the top 7 at states during XC. Fischer and Burkhardt both suffered injuries during the fall of their senior year.

Power- 1:54/4:13/9:06. District One Champion. 15:50 at Hershey. That’s a killer resume for a guy who’s highest placing finish at a state championship came this past indoors in the 3000m (7^th). Power’s a beast and I expect him to fight valiantly and contend for the win. A mid race move from him or an early push of the pace may even make the race for the rest of the field time wise. The main problem is, this race is loaded and it’s hard to imagine running away from this field or outkicking this field, so Power will have his hands full. However, he’s clearly in top shape and will give it all he has on fresh legs.

Side note, Power won the District One title in the 3200m. Over the past 8 seasons, the District One Champion has finished in the top two at states every year but 2010.

Brophy- I’ve been fortunate enough to watch Brophy race once this year at Penn Relays and his kick was impressive. At Henderson, all reports say the same thing. Although it sucks that CB East didn’t crack the state qualifiers list, this does mean Brophy is free to completely focus on his best event for the first time since he was a freshman. Brophy can win a variety of ways, it’s really hard to imagine him getting dropped from a fast pace and he has one of the best kicks in the field. The field is really going to have to punish him during the middle laps if they want to take away his final lap burst. Brophy’s clutch and has a total package of resources to chase a title. Hard to imagine him losing this race to anything but a herculean effort from the others.

Side note, Brophy won the AAA Cross Country title. The AAA state champ has not won the 3200m title outdoors since 2009. That being said 2007-2009 the AAA XC champ won all three titles.

Marston- Conestoga’s leader has run 4:16 and 9:01 this year already, is returning to states for the second straight year and will have a roommate and friend to spend the weekend with in Jimmy Cooper. Marston’s PR of 9:01 automatically makes him a title contender and his 15:40 from Hershey this past fall shows just how strong he is. The speed is still a work in progress relative to some of the other 4:13-4:14/1:55 types, but he displayed nice ability at districts, earning a top 8 spot in the 1600m final. Stoga as a team has grown a lot in the past two years and has a variety of medals to show for it. At states, however, they’ve had to settle for silver twice in a row. Can Marston break the streak?

Side note, I believe Marston is the only D1 3200m qualifier to have another distance teammate joining him at states. I think this is a cool and helpful resource oftentimes for reducing stress and keeping focused. The numbers don’t indicate it’s quite as meaningful, 5 of the last 8 state champions had a distance teammate qualify for states as well, including 4 of whom had teammates competing alongside them in the 32.

Comber- Comber dominated his way to a 4:14 at leagues plus added a silver at districts to his collection to prove he has some serious chops at 1600m. His closing speed has been on full display in the past at meets like indoor states, indoor nationals and Penn Relays but he hasn’t been able to get that big victory just yet. He’s not all speed either, as Comber was a Footlocker Finalist this past fall. His biggest advantage, however, might be his desire to complete his rivalry with Jake Brophy by pulling out a victory. Casey is due for a big win, but so are lot of guys in this field who have similar resumes and similar closing speed. But if Comber wakes up feeling great on Saturday, there’s no reason he can’t compete for the win.

Side note, as mentioned Comber was a Footlocker Finalist this past fall. Out of those Footlocker Finalists who competed at the state championships in the 3200m, there have been 6 second place finishers, 2 champions and 4 other.

Abert- Don’t forget about this guy. He clocked a 4:14 and 9:17 already this year and both times he was fairly alone and uncontested. He was dominate for a stretch during XC, running sub 15 at Lehigh but also was a medalist last spring in the 1600m. I’m sure he hasn’t forgotten the feeling he had after states when he finished 5^th in one of the best races in state history and he will be hunting for revenge. That being said, he’s going to have drop a fairly large PR to be competitive with the top group.

Side note, the other sub 15 guys at Lehigh have translated to 3200m as follows: Paul Springer (8:49 PR, 2^nd at states), Jason Weller (9:02 PR, 1^st at states), Kyle Dawson (9:07 PR, 5^th at states) , Tony Russell (8:57 PR, 2^nd at states)

James- KJ has been putting up some killer speed numbers so far this spring. He’s clocked 1:54 multiple times and split 4:10 this past indoors for 1600m on the DMR at nationals. He finally got that first state title on the DMR and I’m sure he is hungry for more. Individually, James boasts 1:54.0/4:10/9:03 splits plus a 15:38 at Hershey. Those are monster numbers. It just so happens he has run into a variety of other all time greats in his pursuit of the crown. KJ always seems to show up at states, but he’s struggled a bit at the longer distances this year. He certainly hasn’t dropped any of the mind-blowing times his peers have dropped, although he hasn’t had as many opportunities either. He has to prove Penn Relays was a fluke this weekend.

Side note, there are records called “place records” used to judge how deep a race is. James likely holds a variety of these records such as 2^nd place indoor mile, 4^th place outdoor 3200m, 2^nd place XC states, 2^nd place XC pre-states, etc. He’s hoping to add a 1^st place 3200m this spring.

Predictions

This race is going to be one to remember. I think it could realistically be a final lap sprint between 5 or so runners with everyone giving it their all. It may come down to the final 50m or so before everything is decided. This was another incredibly hard decision to make, but in the end here’s what I decided:

8. Abert 9:12.39

7. Power 9:05.08
6. Marston 9:04.11
5. James 9:01.65
4. Comber 9:01.57
3. McGoey 8:59.23
2. Brophy 8:58.96
1. Brehm 8:58.90

I’m a sucker for history and maybe this is a tad bold, but I really believe that Brehm has the tools to surprise here if he does truly go for the win. I’m just imagining a straightaway three or four or five wide in front of the stands and getting excited.

Sleepers

There are plenty here, I will tell you that. I think Hunter Wharrey is the most likely guy to grab a medal that I left off my list, but I’m also a huge fan of Nathan Henderson who has been having a fantastic year. Todd Gunzenhauser, Ethan Linderman and Jacob Heinauer could each end up on the medal stand if they run a nice PR for themselves considering their top end ability. Don’t forget about Jack Tidball either, he’s already run sub 9:20 this year and was a state medalist during indoors in the 3k. Diestelow apparently seemed very relaxed and in control at districts and clearly wants to run a fast time because he scratched out of the 16. That could make him dangerous as well. Final sleeper is Rob Morro from O’Hara. I think he has a decent shot at running a sub 9:20 type of time if this race gets going at a fast pace early enough.