The 4x800m Preview

by etrain11

AA 4x800m

The Setting

The fastest qualifying times in the state ironically came from Ohio this past weekend as Mercyhurst Prep, Seneca, Harbor Creek and North East all clocked times on 8:14.91 or faster including Mercyhurst’s #1 seeded time of 8:02.70. During a qualifying window that saw just 8 teams hit the SQS, District 10’s fast race stands out the most.

Washington, the defending champions, will not be participating in this year’s state championships, but the 2^nd and 3^rd place finishers from a year ago, Wyomissing and Lakeland are both back and hoping to take the gold they missed out on a year ago. You wouldn’t know it by their district results (both squads won in times above the SQS), but these are two powerhouse programs that are once again set up well to compete for a state title. Wyomissing will have a few doubling pieces in Kyle Shinn (1600m) and Jack DiCintio (3200m) that should make things a bit trickier to balance, but they also have run 7:56 already this year, the only team to crack 8 minutes thus far in AA. Lakeland will be doing it’s fair share of doubling as well with Mark Arzie and Nate Morgan both entered in the open 800m and likely to run on the 4x4.

Mercyhurst Prep, who is fresh off an 8:02 performance, will be led by Sebastian Curtin who broke 16 minutes at Hershey this past fall and was second in the 1600m last spring behind Domenic Peretta. Curtin won the 4x8, 1600m and the 800m at districts, but will only contest the 16 at states. Beyond Curtin and stars for Wyomissing and Lakeland, we should also expect to see some other big names in the sport like the Meyer’s twins from Seneca, Dave Fletcher from Mt. Caramel, Matt Gross from Trinity, Julian Degroot-Lutzner from Masterman and Colten Trimble from South Side. There should be a ton of star power for this race, but how will that star power translate to a relay race where each individual involved has so much importance?

Day One: The Trials

As of the writing of this post, the heat sheets have not officially been released, but I assume that it will simply use the normal format for even distributing the seed times so I have taken to projecting the heats. Assuming those projections are correct, here are my picks to advance to the finals:

Automatic Qualifiers

Mercyhurst Prep, South Side, Masterman, Lakeland
Seneca, Mount Caramel, Milton Area, Wyomissing

At Large Qualifiers

Harbor Creek, Minersville, Beaver Area, Trinity

I’ve made a couple assumptions about the lineups for some top teams like St. Joesph’s and Bedford that I suspect may opt to leave off some of their best runners from the relay to allow them to focus on individual events. North East could definitely make this final as they are a strong program that is well coached, but I feel they are less likely to drop time in comparison to their peers from other districts who came from slower races. Trinity is a great program running close to home that I think will deliver. Elk County Catholic is a strong sleeper as well.

Day Two: The Finals
Now we get to the good stuff. The teams are set and racing for a shot at state gold. If DiCintio passed on the 3200m, Wyomissing would be my clear cut favorite, but since he is now making the 32-4x8 double (and I expect him to have a strong showing in the 32), Wyomissing seems a bit more vulnerable. One of their key legs is also a freshman (Cullen) who will have to rise to the occasion under the spotlight. That could mean there will be a lot of pressure on Shinn to deliver.

Mercyhurst Prep is a strong team as well, although last year they passed on the 4x8 to let Seb Cur go after the individual 1600m title. This year, I expect that he will be all-in on trying to bring home cold on the relay with his brother Noah, especially considering just how strong Peretta has looked. Curtin has run 4:16 this year for 1600m equivalent and ran a sub 2 minute 800m to cap off a long day at Districts this past weekend. He delivers in the big spots and his teammates followed his lead, especially in XC this year. I’d argue they are the favorites over Wyomissing at this point.

Lakeland just feels due for a title. They have been such a strong mid-distance program over the years and this year’s team may be the best one they have assembled with Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie at their senior year peak. Morgan’s a 4:21 miler who has sacrificed individual success in that event to give his all for the relay. Lakeland has been strong this year, but they haven’t shown that they are a sub 8 team at full strength like Wyomissing or Mercyhurst has.

Seneca was fantastic at districts and the Meyers twins are excellent runners, but they are fairly young and potentially could struggle in the spotlight. Seneca and Harbor Creek both had big days at districts in a fast, competitive race, so it’s hard to say whether they will drop the same amount as some other teams.

Although depth is important in the relay, having a star is really what transforms a good relay into a great one and South Side, Mount Carmel and Masterman have those runners. Like Nate Morgan, Julian Degroot-Lutzner of Masterman has switched from his main event, the 1600m, to the 800m (which he has run 1:55 at this year already) in hopes that he will be able to better balance his individual and team goals. Masterman had a strong showing at districts in a winning effort without their leader and have a good chance at running close to 8 flat at states, especially if JDL can bust loose a 1:53 type split. Mount Carmel’s top runner, David Fletcher, ran 1:55 a year ago to finish 4^th at states as just a sophomore. He’s back down to 1:55 in the open already and has helped lead his teammates to an 8:07 already this year. Also worth noting, it appears Nate Bartos, a medalist a year ago in the 3200m, has opted to focus solely on the relay, a sacrifice that I hope will be rewarded. Lastly, South Side is led by Colten Trimble, an excellent all around runner who has been particularly successful as a 1600m runner over his career.

Predictions

When it comes to the relay, I feel it is always important to gauge a team’s focus and chemistry heading into the championships. I also think the value of a star leg, especially at the AA level, can never be overly emphasized. Here’s how I see the battle for the medals playing out:

8. Trinity 8:11.17

7. Seneca 8:08.63
6. South Side 8:06.59
5. Wyomissing 8:05.24
4. Masterman 8:04.87
3. Mount Carmel 8:03.02
2. Lakeland 8:02.58
1. Mercyhurst Prep 8:00.79

Those times are probably going to end up being too slow as, historically, it takes under 8 minutes to win a state title on a consistent level. As things currently, stand it’s hard for me to find more time to cut off, but someone will emerge as a surprise contender and the magic of the state championship can never be overlooked.

AAA 4x800m

The Setting
Perhaps PA’s most magical event is the 4x800m. The AAA race has featured some fantastic races and down the wire finishes, including a 7:33 state record by CB South and two photo finishes in 2011 and 2012. District One, who has been fairly dominant in the event, comes in with 8 of the top 10 seeds in the state even without CB East and Cheltenham making it through qualifying. The district meet was very quick, including a blazing 7:43.50 from Pennsbury and a two other sub 7:50 marks from some familiar faces in CBW and Abington. District One hasn’t sent all 8 of it’s teams to the state finals since 2009, the deepest and fastest state 4x800m of all time. Could we be on the verge of something similar this year?

The rest of the state will have something to say about that. Cedar Crest, the 2010 state champions, dominated at District 3 and seem to be sitting on another breakthrough like they had 5 years ago. State College is the defending state champions and, despite graduating their entire gold medal squad, feels that they are more than capable of defending their crown. In addition, the always dangerous WPIAL and PCL teams are once again prepared to strike.

Pennsbury, the aforementioned top seed, will be attempting to become the 7^th team in the past 9 years to win both the indoor and outdoor state championships for the 4x800m. In addition, they likely have the 7:40 barrier in mind, a mark that just one team has broken at the state meet in the last decade.

Day One: The Trials

As mentioned, I’m projecting the heats based on seed time as the Heat Sheets are not officially released as of the writing of this post.

Trying to figure out who would make it through the rounds out at Shippensburg was something of a nightmare. The teams are reasonably bunched together and a variety of teams have pieces that are still very much up in the air. With Brehm entered in all three individual events, I’ve scratched Carlisle off my rankings as I don’t expect their “A” team to surface. Cardinal O’Hara is the other intriguing piece to the puzzle. If they choose to run their best team (KJ, Nolen/RJ, Morro and Jones) they could definitely make it to finals. However, with James and Morro set to run the 32 the next day and James a clear title contender in the event, it’s also very possible that O’Hara holds those men out of the relay, therefore crippling their chances of advancing. As of an hour ago, I had penciled in the “A” squad, but I recently decided to pull out the eraser and insert the “B” team instead.

There’s other questions too, like will Matt McGoey provide a leg on the NA relay? Will Abert and Lapsansky be featured for Easton? How about Khai Samuels for Pleasant Valley? They are tricky questions to balance and potentially finals alternating decisions.

With all of these thoughts in mind, here’s how I see the qualifying unfolding

Automatic Qualifiers

Pennsbury, Pennridge, Cedar Crest, State College
CB West, Abington, Penn Hills, Radnor

At Large Qualifiers

Penncrest, Altoona, Twin Valley, LaSalle

I will say that my currently projected “Heat 2” seems quite a bit easier to survive than my projected “Heat 1” which is good news for a team like Radnor and potentially for teams like Shanahan and Penn Wood. I have Twin Valley grabbing that last spot because they are a bit more experienced in state level competitions, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they got jumped by one of the D1 teams (or O’Hara’s A squad). It’s also quite possible all 4 at larges come from the first heat.

Assuming I’ve got the breakouts right, Pennsbury does not get an easy draw out of the prelims. Pennridge and Penncrest are both impressive relays and Cedar Crest might end up as the best non-D1 team and possibly Pennsbury’s toughest overall opponent. LaSalle and State College are super dangerous relative to their seed time and so too is the District Champs in Norwin and the State Champs in XC North Allegheny. Bonner has been a solid team and has a 1:55 anchor, but my current projected seeding isn’t doing them too many favors.

Small shout to Slippery Rock as a potential deep sleeper. I’m not sure I see them making the leap into low 7:50s (likely the kind of time it’s going to take to escape day one), but I do think they have been very productive this season and have shown some strong stuff this year.

Day Two: The Finals

Could this potentially be an upset finish? As was mentioned by a commenter, CB West will be completely fresh this time around with Fortna missing states in the 16 while Pennsbury is still going to be stretching themselves with Sauer and Webb pulling double duty. Throw in the fact that Pennsbury’s heat is projected to be more difficult than West’s and maybe the door is open for an upset.

CB West took down the state title in 2011 and added a bronze in 2008 and a silver in 2010. When they get themselves into the state final, history says they deliver. They have an incredibly balanced squad with strong depth. They may be able to save one of their legs during the trials because they have 5 guys who are well clear of 2 minutes in the open 800m. But can they take down Sauer on the anchor leg? I think they can potentially get a lead between Baker and Claricurzio, who both may have 1:55 or faster in them, but Sauer is excellent at chasing and a fierce kicker. It’s going to be very hard to run away from him, even with a lead. But Fortna is a gutsy runner and put up one heck of a fight at Districts.

That’s the defining difference for me between Pennsbury and these other top contenders: they have a killer weapon on the anchor leg in Alek Sauer. He’s split 1:51.98 at Penn Relays and run a 1:52 multiple times in the open. Out of my projected 12 finalists, the next fastest open PR belongs to Evan Emmanuel at 1:54 for Penncrest and then Cruise from Cedar Crest at 1:55.2h. Sutton from LaSalle and Andre Kelly from Radnor have also run 1:55 in the open 8 this spring.

Although anchor legs are important, depth is important as well. That’s the argument that the well balanced State College squad will look to employ at the state championships as they are coming off a 7:58 performance without 4:22-1:57 man Alex Milligan. This team has produced a variety of sub 2 minute or near 2 minute performances across the board this spring, but the key for them will be to find a breakthrough performance or two into the 1:55-56 range. If Feffer can give you a 1:56ish type split and Milligan can find 1:55, this team could really turn heads.

Although Penn Hills didn’t pull out a WPIAL title this past weekend, they are still my team looking ahead. Bailey, Murray and Terrell could each split 1:56 if things click right and that could lead to a time under 7:50. LaSalle and Altoona are also teams with massive upside. It’s hard to believe that Altoona has still not made a state final in the 4x8 while I’ve been following the sport. They seem due, especially with this squad. Stroh is really rounding into form and George and Foust have been money this year. LaSalle has had a couple hiccups at states this year so they have something to prove this go around but Grant and Sutton look like they could each be at 1:55 or faster which sets them up for success.

Pennridge and Penncrest own the 4x8. Pennridge has been great these year and I have to imagine that the addition of Tucker Desko to the relay took them over the hump from good to great (no idea if/when he was added to the relay, just what I’m gleaming from results). I still am holding out hope for a big day for Penncrest. Emmanuel has been phenomenal this year and if he can save a little something for finals and not have to run in the 1:51-1:52 range in the trials (as was reported at districts), he could really bring it home for PC. Soham Kamat will need to produce to take some pressure off Evan as will James Teal.

Predictions

This race has the potential to get exciting, especially if tired legs seem to be prevailing or there is any flukey relay bumping and contact, but in the end I think Sauer’s power on the anchor and the steadying of Sam Webb as a reliable #2 option get Pennsbury the gold.

1. Pennsbury 7:42.20

2. CB West 7:43.01
3. Cedar Crest 7:45.99
4. Penncrest 7:49.18
5. Pennridge 7:49.23
6. State College 7:50.79
7. Abington 7:50.82
8. Penn Hills 7:51.64