Show Me The Money

By Garrett Zatlin

It’s surprising how similar track and the stock market are. When I’m making predictions and analyzing runners, I treat them a lot like a stock. I’ll ask myself a multitude of questions to get a better idea of where I see a runner or a stock heading. How well are they doing now? Have they progressed or faltered? What does history indicate? How is their competition doing in comparison? Are there any otherfactors I should consider? All of these are questions I ask myself to make sure I get the fuller picture of every runner and company that is sold publicly. 

There are three indicators on a general scale that displays the performance of a stock. These three indicators are Bearish, neutral, and Bullish. Bearish means the stock is not headed in the right direction and the price of the stock is going to lower (hence a bear paw swiping down). Bullish means the stock is projected to go up and there should be a good amount of confidence about investing in the stock (hence a bulls horns pointing up). Neutral simply means that the stock is not swinging one way or the other.

At this point, we are roughly halfway through the season. Let’s take a look at the performance of some runners and get an idea of where they might be heading later into the season.

Bullish: 800 guys

This group holds a bunch of fun facts. At the unofficial half way point of this season, there are three men under 1:46 (Kidder, Walker, Amankwah). At the end of the entire 2014 season there were only two men under 1:46 (McBride and Rutto). What’s also interesting is that the average time for the top 10 men last year was 1:46.40. At halfway through this season? 1:46.367. Those are basically identical times and there is still a lot of racing left to do. It also helps that there is a new face of the 800 world. Kidder has surprised everyone with his race at Payton Jordan and has created an even crazier conversation for who’s going to take the 800m title. 

Bearish: The Forgotten 800 Stars- Rono, Rutto, and Neal

The reason they’re bearish is because they’ve been practically invisible this entire season. Neal has yet to put together a serious 800 this season. He currently sits at1:49.12 so far. Neal made the mile cut for NCAA’s this past indoor season but has only run one mile (4:04.54) this season. Rono struggled during the indoor season. He couldn’t put together anything faster than a 1:49.46 in his five attempts at the event. Rutto doesn’t have a problem with poor races…mainly because he hasn’t raced at all these past track seasons. Where in the world did the 1:45 man go?

Bullish: PA alumni

Let’s talk names. Willig, McClafferty, and Coyle have been killing it this season. Willig has a 1:48.82 and a 3:45.41 so far this season. Coyle is becoming a big name and is consistently mixing it up with some powerhouse teams (see Penn Relays). It also doesn’t hurt that he just ran 3:43.85 at Payton Jordan. McClafferty has run also a 3:43(.78) this season and has become the focal point of the Duke distance squad. PA alumni are becoming quite relevant on the national scene.

Bearish: PA alumni

Contradictory, I know. I hate to say this but PA alumni running for Penn haven’t been thrilling lately. Shearn and Wilson have done pretty well in the longer distances but guys like Magaha, Timmons, and Huemmler haven’t been mind-blowing as of late. I will, however, give Huemmler some slack since he was injured for a heavy portion of 2014. Jeff Wiseman had an excellent indoor season but I haven’t quite seen that translate to outdoors (unless there was a split I missed). Other guys like Kyle Francis haven’t been where they once were as he continues to split around 1:53. The men from Penn St. have been up and down.Logue is injured and XC state champions Connor Quinn and Tony Russell haven’t been heard from. Throw in Barchet’s departure from the Colorado squad and things aren’t looking great for the elite talents from a year or two ago. 

Bullish: Thomas Joyce

Most will just look at my picks and skip over the reading. If you do that, then you won’t know that the reason I picked Joyce was not just because of his outstanding times, but mainly because he is undefeated so far this season. Mr. Joyce is unstoppable right now with wins in the 1500, Mile, 3000, and 5000 this season. In total he is 7-0. His wins aren’t just easy wins either. He’s beaten out guys like Sean McGorty and Erik Olson (both of Stanford), Justyn Knight and Martin Hehir (both of Syracuse), Anthony Rotich (UTEP), and Pierce Murphy (Colorado). As you can see by the names he beat, this guy is no joke. I think it’s safe to say that Joyce is the Soratos of the outdoor season and I am pumped to see what he can continue to do. 

Neutral: Cristian Soratos

If we assume that Cheserek is running the 5k/10k at NCAA’s then Soratos has to be the favorite for the title…right? As it stands right now, Soratos sits behind 6 guys in 1500. All of these guys are proven, accomplished runners. Jordy Williamsz (Villanova) just outkicked King Cheserek. Joyce (Cal) and Noelle (OKST) have yet to lose a race this season. While the odds aren’t in his favor right now, he still has time. He has championship racing experience under his belt and has raced the king before. Add in the fact that he hasn’t lost a 1500 to another collegiate this season and things aren’t all that bad. Time can only tell how Soratos will handle the crowd of elites.

Bearish: The King

When a stock gets so high, it’s a bound to drop a little at one point or another. Eddy Ches is still the favorite to win the 5k/10k this year. There’s no reason for him not to be. The only thing I will say is that he is now vulnerable. He’s beatable. He is actually human. Will anyone beat him again? Absolutely not. But if you’re unbeatable and you lose, your stock is bound to drop a little. Cheserek is going to grab double gold, but he can’t be as care-free as he wants to now that Jordy has exposed him.

Bullish: Experience 

Currently…

• The top three times in 5000 belong to seniors. 

• The top two times in the 10,000 belong to seniors. 

• The top three times in the 3000St belong to seniors.

You can see what I’m getting at. 

In each of those three events, seniors hold six of the top ten spots. The numbers don’t lie. If you want to be successful in the longer distances, experience is a key factor. Is it just the longer distances though? What about the 800 and 1500? Seniors hold two of the top ten spots in the 800 and three of the top ten sports in the 1500. The top senior in the 800 and 1500 are both at third. 

Experience is crucial this year. It helps to be a veteran with an idea of how a race is going to play out. A seasoned runner knows how to react to a slow or fast pace. They know what to expect from their competitors. Of course…just be sure to tell that to Eddy Ches.

Bullish: Etrain and the writing staff

I just need to say that these guys are killing it. Everyday new ideas are bounced off of each other. There’s always someone talking about a new result or an update they just got and I believe that’s what makes this blog so successful. Etrain and the other writers have an excellent idea of what their readers want and they go out of their way to make sure they provide that to the best of their ability. They get an A+ in my book.

While on the topic of other writers, be on the look out for something from Alex Fox soon. He’s got a nice surprise set up that I’m eager to see.

So who do you think is bullish or bearish this season? Let me know below and get ready for another month of fast times.

Run on,

Garrett