by Jarrett Felix
10,000m (8:50 AM ET, August 22nd)
The greatest distance runner of his generation will start the festivities in China seeking his sixth global title. The 10k may be the weaker of Farah’s two events (he lost in 2011 at Worlds), but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be a strong favorite for the win. He’s the world leader in the event this year, nearly running a PR in Eugene(26:50 vs. 26:46) in the early stages of the Diamond League despite the fact that he had to carry a decent chunk of pacing duties in the race. And of course his range stretches down to a 3:28 1500m PR. Few can outsprint Farah, but it’s not like he is somebody easy to drop. The only hope is arguably a team effort from the Kenyans or Ethiopians to make Farah hurt and push him towards his limits.
This is especially true for Kenya’s Geoffrey Kamworwor. Geoffrey is fresh off a win at the Kenya Trials for 10,000 in a blistering 27:11 at altitude. Some could argue a time like that is near world record level at sea level (of course Kamworwor is likely better adjusted to altitude than say your average Pennsylvanian). Kam was beat out by Mo at the Pre Classic and he has yet to showcase much of a kick (just a 13:12 5k PR), but his strength (2:06 Marathon, 1st place in the 2014 World Half Championships) is undeniable. He’s also just 22 years old and learning a great deal with every race. He should be a different runner than he was when he was torched by Mo over the final stretch at Hayward.
Kamworwor will have great teammates to work with in Beijing including 2013 Bronze Medalist Paul Tanui and Olympic and World top 10 finisher Bedan Muchiri. Both of these men helped push Kamworwor to his blazing time in the Kenyan trials, also breaking 27:20 in the process. Both men also hold PRs under 27 minutes (26:49 for Tanui and 26:52 for Muchiri) placing them among a select group of elite long distance athletes. It’s unclear whether either man will be willing to risk his own personal medal chances by taking up a killer pace, but both have the incentive to push and try and work as a team. Tanui seems like someone willing to trade paces (he did so with Farah in Eugene) so maybe we will see something from him like that again, this time with his fellow countrymen.
The Ethiopians are experienced in these championships. They consistently produce championship medalists including the Bekeles, Geb and Jelian so if they are denied a podium spot this year it would be historic. However, the team is led by a relative unknown at this distance, Muktar Edris. Edris boasts just a 27:17 PB, but the 21 year old was a force on the DL circuit in the 5k last year (running 12:54) and that speed could loom large in a tactical affair in China. Of course that strategy doesn’t always translate (just ask countryman Dejen Gebremeskel who struggled in the 10k last year). But Edris has proven he can handle the longer distances and tests of strength. He was 3rd at the 2015 World XC Championships behind sub 27 Kenyans Kamworwor and Muchiri and ahead of sub 12;50 runner Hagos Gebrhiwet. The better medal odds may rest with Imane Merga. Although Merga was outside the top 10 in Moscow, Merga was the 2011 Bronze medalist and holds a PR of 26:48. He’s also placed in the top 2 at World XC in 2013 and 2011.
Former NCAA Champion Cameron Levins is set to compete, looking for redemption after a disappointing finish in the 5,000m at the Pan American games. Levins looked incredible indoors and added a very strong 27:07 at Prefontaine this year (putting him in the top 4 in the world thus far this year). He has yet to be a factor in the final laps of a global championship, but he’s still learning and improving each year. His speed has really improved based on his indoor marks and I think he might be ready for a breakthrough.
U.S.vs Them
With Ben True passing on the 10k to focus on the 5, Shadrack Kipchirchir has been promoted into a world championship spot. Kipchirchir is solid and should have a bit of extra motivation after finishing 4th at Pan Ams behind countrymen and fellow Army man Aron Rono (who he beat originally at USAs to earn the spot). Kipchirchir is likely a bit over his head in this field although he has a solid PR down around 27:30. I don't think his speed will be there in a kickers race (Ches dusted him at NCAAs in 2013) and he's not a truly elite 10k guy (would need to be closer to 27 flat), but he should be able to hold his own and mix it up for a few laps at least.
I think Hassan Mead, the 3rd placer from USAs, is also competing in his first global championships after emerging from relative obscurity to run 13:02 at 2014's Payton Jordan. Although Mead has maintained a strong position among the leaders here in the US, he's yet to truly take off on the world circuit. It took him a couple tries just to get the A standard in the 10k (ran 27:33 at Pre) so he still has a little bit of learning to do in this longer distance as well. I think his future as a 10k guy looks pretty strong, but I'd bet he's a year or two or way from being any sort of serious factor in this race.
Which leaves Galen Rupp, the 2012 Olympic Silver Medalist at 10,000. Rupp was 4th at the last world championships in 2013, setting up a long two year wait for his chance at redemption. He filled the gap with an American Record run in the 10k at the 2014 Prefontaine Classic, dropping a 26:44. That 26:44 puts him #1 by PR in this field. In a race with any sort of honest pace, Rupp has proven he has the strength to close with the best in world in the 25 lapper. Look no further than USAs in the event to see just how easily Rupp destroyed the US competition.
However, look no further than the 5k at the same event to see how vulnerable Rupp is, especially at a slower pace. He was inches from 4th, edging out Garrett Heath for the final worlds spot.
Since that event, Rupp has basically been in hiding. He has raced just once (a poor 4 flat showing in the mile in Portland) and his sharpness and fitness will be in serious question when he gets to China. This absence could be for a number of reasons. He could have gone home to focus on revamping his training and getting stronger. He could have been looking to avoid the media circus that has surrounded him ever since the doping controversy began. Or maybe he just wants to spend time with his twin babies and help out a wife who has been the real super hero of the family lately.
Whatever the reason, Rupp will be something of a mystery in Beijing and perhaps the most famous current US distance runner may be in big trouble, especially if one of the Ethiopians is ready to ascend to a medal position. I think, overall, the 10k doesn't seem to be quite as loaded as some of the other distance competitions, but Rupp may have too many question marks surrounding him to break free.
Ultimately, I’ll be watching to see if the pace really gets cranking at any point. I don’t expect it to be fast from the gun, but from 4k-5k out, we need to see a killer surge if Mo is going to be at all rattled in this group. I’m predicting the usual tactics and the usual result. Mo throws down and takes the victory for yet another global title. I think Kamworwor has the best shot at beating him in an honest race, but I also think he is the least likely familiar face to get on the medal stand considering his inexperience and his lack of a proven finishing kick.
1. Farah
2. Tanui
3. Merga
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