2015 World Championships: 1500m Preview

1500m
by Jarrett Felix

In 2008, Asbel Kiprop won the Gold Medal in the Beijing Olympic Games. Technically. Kiprop crossed the line second seven years ago behind Rashid Ramzi. However, in 2009 it was revealed that Ramzi had tested positive for illegal performance enhancing drugs after the games and he was retroactively disqualified, therefore upgrading Kiprop to gold. Flash forward to 2015. Kiprop returns to Beijing in the best form of his outstanding career looking to earn the Gold Medal ceremony he was denied at the Olympics. It’s beautifully poetic, but is it what we should expect to see?

The simple answer is yes. Kiprop has run the fastest time in the world this year and is now the third fastest man ever of all time after his 3:26 in Monaco. He dominated a field filled with some of the best in the history of the event to do so, winning the race by over two seconds. Plus Kiprop has proven he can win tactical affairs in the past. He's the owner of gold medals from the 2011 and 2013 World Championships.

The other top runner by PB is also from Kenya, Silas Kiplagat, but he has had an up and down championship history. Despite an excellent 3:27 PR (beating Kiprop) and a great record on the Diamond League circuit the last few years, Kiplagat has lacked the gear shifting needed to slip into the medals in the tactical 1500m global finals. He did grab a silver in 2011 thanks to a big surge 300m out so I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump out early with a strong move down the backstretch.

A similar move was made by Olympic Champion Taoufik Makhloufi in the 2012 London Olympics as his 300m surge burned out the field and left the scraps for the USA's Leo Manzano to clean up. Few could match his absurdly strong close and after a 3:28 PR this season, it's clear Taoufik has returned to form this season. In London, injuries held Kiprop back, but he's clearly 100% this go around. That could make for an intriguing battle in Beijing.

Another to watch is Ayanleh Souleiman who has run under 1:43 and under 3:30 in his career with a 3:30.17 PR this season. He has a strong kick and has held his own on the Diamond League amongst the likes of Kiprop and Kiplagat. Souleiman earned the bronze medal in 2013 at 800m, which I feel may be his weaker event. Now, with a few extra years of experience (he's still only in his early twenties), Souleiman should have an extra set of tools to chase one of the medals.

Abdalatti Iguider was the bronze medalist in London and ran 3:28.79 this year, an impressive new PR. He missed the finals last championships, but he should be hungry for redemption in China. Nick Willis, the silver medalist from the Beijing Olympics, will look to recapture some of the magic from that run. He too missed the final last year, but has clocked multiple sub 3:30 1500m since.

Aman Wote, Chris O'Hare, Johan Cronje and particularly Henrik Ingebrigtsen are among a slew of sleepers who could surprise for a medal. It's going to be very compelling to see who even advances to the top 12 in this loaded championship.

U.S. vs Them

The 1500m is arguably the US's best shot at a medal on both the men's and women's side, boosted largely by the contingent of past medalists sporting red white and blue. On the men's side, Matt Centrowitz and Leo Manzano won silver medals at the last two global championships (Manzano at the London Olympics in 2012 and Centro in Moscow in 2013). Both men hold sub 3:31 PRs, with Centro's coming this year in the legendary Monaco race. Most importantly, both have incredible kicks and fantastic championship experience. Centro has only been a factor on the world scene since 2011, but in his 3 global championships he has placed 3rd, 4th and 2nd. No one else can boast 3 top 5s over that span in the world. Manzano has struggled a bit more on the world scene with his only real highlight being London (he missed the finals in Moscow), but his USAs resume shows that when he gets to the final he tends to find a way to sneak into that top 3. 

Of course USAs is a much different battleground than what we will see in Beijing which makes the climb into contention very difficult for Robby Andrews, the 2nd place finisher from USAs. Andrews has epic wheels (watch the 2011 NCAA championships at 800m for Exhibit A) and is a personal favorite of mine (massive understatement), but he has a nasty habit of giving too much space to guys and at this level that could cost him. It's going to be very tricky for him to navigate through the rounds against a stacked field, especially if one of those heats really gets out hard (Andrews has run just 3:35 this year with a 3:34 PR from 2012). But if he can make it to the finals, that kick is always dangerous in a tactical affair. He's a real long shot for a medal, but his odds will spike nicely every time he advances.

I'm not sold on Leo as a contender this year. He's so inconsistent to begin with that it's hard to really speculate on his fitness, but my early bet is he is out of the medals and a borderline finalist. He has to prove London was no fluke.

Centro is the guy. I think his odds of a medal are very good, unless the race miraculously goes out in 1:51. He's incredibly strong tactically and, just as important, he gets stronger through the rounds. Remember there are 3 rounds of the 1500 at Worlds and that gives strength guys like Centro an advantage that is never on display during the regular season. He's having a career year on the circuit with PRs in the 15 and 800 to pair with some near wins in the DL and, if he follows past year's trends, Centro not only is a medal favorite, but he's also a contender for Gold. Even against Kiprop.

This is going to be a thrilling race. Although Kiprop is a heavy favorite, I don't think he will be able to run this like Dibaba and just dominate. He has to be tactically sound because there are some excellent closers with great personal bests in this field. Centro is going to really need to be on his game to grab a medal, but thus far the USA has not shown much to give me confidence that we will get some hardware. Plus Souleiman running fresh in the 1500m made me drop Matthew from the medals.

1. Kiprop

2. Makloufi

3. Souleiman