2015 World Championships: 5,000m Preview

5,000m
by Jarrett Felix

“Do the rap and the track, triple double no assists,

And my only focus is, staying on some bogus s***”

Yes, this is a rare moment in track and field, when lyrics from Kanye West apply smoothly to a World Championship preview. Ye’s verse on monster, although likely unintentional, speaks to Mo Farah’s quest for a third straight double gold (10k-5k) in global championships, a “triple double” if you will. And of course Farah, who has found his named dragged through the mud in the Salazar-Rupp doping scandal, is hoping fans will believe he did it with “no assists”. For now, however, as he showed during his most recent diamond league races (easy looking wins at 5k and 3k, plus another 3:28 1500m), his only focus is competing at a high level.

You get the idea.

Farah’s kick looks just as lethal as ever and, assuming no runners have some hidden strategy up their sleeves, there are few reasons to believe that Mo will not be able to execute his race plan to perfection as he has in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Even if things do get going, Farah has run 12:53 for 5k and well under 27 minutes for 10k so he has the strength to hang around at even the fastest of paces. It’s hard to imagine him losing this one. Assuming he does run it (which he allegedly may not do).

The best hope to unseat the British Monarch will likely come from Ethiopia, the nation that has produced the silver medalist in 2012 and 2013. Those silver medalists, Dejen Gebremeskel and Hagos Gebrhiwet, are two of the fastest 5,000m runners of this era, both with PRs under 12:50. Gebremeskel ran 12:46 in a winning effort in Paris back in 2012 before grabbing Silver in London. However, a failed experiment with the 10k (he ran blazing 26:51, but struggled at Worlds) left him off the radar in recent years. He quietly has picked up some nice wins in smaller races, but he has done little to indicate he is ready to return to peak form.

 

Post Prelim edit: Surprisingly, Gebremeskel was left off the team in favor of Imane Merga who will double from the 10,000 (where he DNFed). Interesting decision, but I think Merga is going to struggle with tired legs in the final.

Hagos Gebrhiwet has been similarly quiet since his win in Doha. The 21 year old is currently the World Junior record holder at 5,000m (12:47 also in Paris) and reigning WC Silver medalist, but this outdoor season he has been MIA since the Rome DL (where he admittedly was a strong close 3^rd in 12:58).

But perhaps the most intriguing member of team Ethiopia is 18 year old Yomif Kejelcha. The youngster first burst onto the scene in the early season at Doha when he made a bold move in the 3,000m to try and unset a stacked field, including Mo Farah. Ultimately, the move backfired and Kejelcha faded hard, but the surprise ended up costing Farah the win (he was bested by Hagos Gebrhiwet). As Yomif matured, he showcased a brilliantly timed kick in a winning effort at the Prefontaine Classic before dropping a stunning 12:58 PR at 5,000m in Rome (he won that race over Gebrhiwet, Olympic medalist Longiswa and former WL Edris).

When he and Farah met again, Mo took care of business in the final 100m and it looked easy so that has to be intimidating for the youngster, but Kejelcha has made impressive strides this season and is still a raw talent learning something new every race. Hopefully, he’s up for the challenge in Beijing.

Caleb Ndiku of Kenya seemed like the logical choice to challenge Farah headed into the 2015 season after a terrific 2014. He won gold indoors at 3,000m and then won the African Championships and the Commonwealth Games at 5,000. He started as more of a 1500m runner in his younger days (so you know he has speed), but he transitioned brilliantly when advancing in distance, adding the exclamation point when he won the Diamond League crown last year with a win in Zurich. His PR is “only” 12:59 for 5k which slots him back a bit in this field, but his kick and speed is strong. He’s also a proven winner. The downside for Ndiku is that he took a hard fall earlier this year in the Diamond League and his health is in question (I thought I heard he had to get stitches on his head). The good news is he looked strong post fall in Monaco, winning the 3k.

Edwin Soi and Isiah Koech for Kenya will also, without a doubt, be factors in this race. Soi medaled at the last world championships and looked very sharp in 2013 (12:51) and 2014. Soi has had seven different years with a best under 13 minutes, but has run just 13:11 this year. Koech is still just 21 years old but holds PRs of 12:48, 7:30 and 8:14 (2 Miles), all coming from 2012 or before (when he was roughly 18 years old). Koech is a real talent, but he has not been in sub 13 form since 2013 and has yet to prove himself in a championship setting. Maybe this is the season where things click for the youngster.

U.S. Against the World

Galen Rupp has always struggled to handle the 5k-10k double effectively. Although I'd bet, assuming he's healthy, he makes it to yet another global final, the odds say he will likely struggle to kick with the top guys and finish somewhere inside the top 10 but outside the top 5. He does have a 12:58 PR at the distance, one of the best marks in the field, but it's unlikely that the 5,000 final will be anywhere near the honest pace it would take for Rupp's long distance strength to kick in.

Post Prelim Edit: Rupp ran a very smart prelim, realizing he was in position to advance on time and easing up well many others were sprinting through the line. That could help a bit, but shouldn't change my prediction overall.

The U.S. Champ Ryan Hill, who made the world championship team in 2013, has only a 13:14 best lifetime in the event. That makes him one of the slowest men in the field by PR, or at least one of the slowest contenders. His win at US champs comes with something of an asterix as True and Rupp, his two strongest competitors, were both doubling off a difficult, hot 10,000 (True said he's taken a while to recover from the effort to double).

But Hill isn't getting nearly enough credit here as a medal contender. He made the world final in 2013 and hung valiantly in the pack down to the final kick. That was two years ago, before he had officially turned pro. Since, he's continued to showcase excellent tactics while running 7:34 indoors against Olympic silver medalist Dejen Gebremeskel and mixing it up for US titles. In a slow race, there are few that can hang with Hill.

But ultimately, most think Ben True may be the US's best hope for a medal in the 5,000. True is passing on the 10k to focus on his preferred, shorter event and will look to duplicate the magic that helped him win the New York DL 5k over guys like Nick Willis and medalist Thomas Longisiwa. True has had some spectacular moments (a top 10 finish at World Cross, a 13:02 win at Payton Jordan, the American Record in a road 5k), but I wonder if he's ready to hang with the elite 5kers in the world. He doesn't boast a particularly impressive 1500m PR, but he did prove his kick is there against a 3:29 guy like Willis. He's a grinder and a really tough runner who should benefit from sub optimal conditions in Beijing, but I still feel his best event may be the 10k (but if your head isn't in it, there's no way you can run a 10k). We will see how True handles Hill when both guys have fresh legs.

In the end, I think this field has the potential to see some serious upsets. True looked great in the prelim, Hill has a decent kick and Rupp is still a world class runner. Maybe one of those guys sneaks a medal in a less than loaded field. However, most likely this is a tactical affair in the Beijing weather, Farah takes it and the likes of Ndiku and Gebrhewit take the medals.

1. Farah
2. Ndiku
3. Gebrhewit