by Jarrett Felix
3,000m Steeplechase (Heats August 21st 10:21 PM ET, Final August 24th 9:15 AM ET)
This race is setting up to be a pseudo Kenya-USA dual meet, where the Kenyans are the heavy favorites to do damage. Without France's multi-medalist Mekhissi-Bennabad, the field lacks one of usual top contenders and opens the door for a new medalist (or possibly a Kenyan sweep). Kenya has roughly seven guys in the top 10 in the world this year for the steeple and their top four, Jarius Birech, Ezekiel Kemboi, Brimin Kipruto and Conselus Kipruto are some of the best to ever jump over the barriers.
Kemboi has an incredibly impressive resume to date. Dating back to the 2003 World Championships in Paris, Kemboi has medaled at 8 global championships including a gold medal at each of the last 4 global championships. He has five global golds and three silvers in total. Thanks to a strong kick and great strength, Kemboi has been able to handle each wave of up and coming talent over the years. He hasn't looked to be slowing down at all in 2015 after an early 8:01 against Birech.
Meanwhile Birech has continued to improve since his battle with Kemboi, running 7:58 in the "Evan Jager falls" race. This marks the second straight year Birech has cracked 8 minutes and he dominate the steeple scene in 2014. His kick is a little questionable, especially up against Kemboi, but he has strong speed and likely the best strength of anyone in the field.
The Kipruto's are both excellent steeplechasers. Brimin holds a PR of 7:53.64, a time inches from the world record. That came back in 2011 at Monaco. Since then Brimin has continued to run solid marks, but has only managed an 8:10 this year, making him the slowest on paper out of the Kenyans toeing the line in Beijing. The other good news for Brimin, the last time he ran a global championship on this track (the 2008 Olympics) he left with the gold medal. Conselus is just 20 years of age and is the silver medalist from the 2013 World Championships in Moscow, a race where he was outkicked by Kemboi on the final stretch. After his 8:01 in 2013, he took a bit of a step back in 2014. 2015 has been an improvement, but he still has to take another step if he wants to be on the level of Birech and Kemboi.
Of the other runners in the field, keep an eye on Canadian Matt Hughes. He finished 6th in Moscow after running a pair of PRs, including an 8:11 national record in the final.
3,000m Steeplechase (Heats August 21st 10:21 PM ET, Final August 24th 9:15 AM ET)
This race is setting up to be a pseudo Kenya-USA dual meet, where the Kenyans are the heavy favorites to do damage. Without France's multi-medalist Mekhissi-Bennabad, the field lacks one of usual top contenders and opens the door for a new medalist (or possibly a Kenyan sweep). Kenya has roughly seven guys in the top 10 in the world this year for the steeple and their top four, Jarius Birech, Ezekiel Kemboi, Brimin Kipruto and Conselus Kipruto are some of the best to ever jump over the barriers.
Kemboi has an incredibly impressive resume to date. Dating back to the 2003 World Championships in Paris, Kemboi has medaled at 8 global championships including a gold medal at each of the last 4 global championships. He has five global golds and three silvers in total. Thanks to a strong kick and great strength, Kemboi has been able to handle each wave of up and coming talent over the years. He hasn't looked to be slowing down at all in 2015 after an early 8:01 against Birech.
Meanwhile Birech has continued to improve since his battle with Kemboi, running 7:58 in the "Evan Jager falls" race. This marks the second straight year Birech has cracked 8 minutes and he dominate the steeple scene in 2014. His kick is a little questionable, especially up against Kemboi, but he has strong speed and likely the best strength of anyone in the field.
The Kipruto's are both excellent steeplechasers. Brimin holds a PR of 7:53.64, a time inches from the world record. That came back in 2011 at Monaco. Since then Brimin has continued to run solid marks, but has only managed an 8:10 this year, making him the slowest on paper out of the Kenyans toeing the line in Beijing. The other good news for Brimin, the last time he ran a global championship on this track (the 2008 Olympics) he left with the gold medal. Conselus is just 20 years of age and is the silver medalist from the 2013 World Championships in Moscow, a race where he was outkicked by Kemboi on the final stretch. After his 8:01 in 2013, he took a bit of a step back in 2014. 2015 has been an improvement, but he still has to take another step if he wants to be on the level of Birech and Kemboi.
Of the other runners in the field, keep an eye on Canadian Matt Hughes. He finished 6th in Moscow after running a pair of PRs, including an 8:11 national record in the final.
U.S.vs Them
The Kenyans are the best nation in the world for the steeplechase, but the US has quietly assembled a nice arsenal of distance hurdles themselves. Dan Huling has managed to stick his nose in it year after year and once again made the U.S. Team this year. He's never really been a serious medal threat on the World Stage (and realistically, he won't be again this year), but hopefully he can qualify for the World final and stay competitive there. Top 8 would be a nice showing and Top 5 would be bloody brilliant.
Don Cabral made the London Final in 2012 and really held his own when he got there. There was not much of a gap between him and Evan Jager. 2013 was a bit of a set back for Cabral (I believe he had Lyme's Disease or some other illness) and in 2014 he showed signs of a rise, running a 5,000 PR (13:22). This season he finally shattered his steeple PR (8:13 from 8:19) and continues to improve, getting a nice taste for some racing overseas. Cabral is a gamer and can handle himself well in a kickers race (check out his Penn Relays wheel collection). I don't think Cabral is a top 5 guy, but I think he is going to stick his nose in it and keep things interesting.
But the real story here is Evan "The Hair" Jager and his quest not just for his first worlds medal, but perhaps his first gold medal. There have been some distance silvers over the years, but the country is hungry for Au and Jager, after his jaw dropping steeple in Paris. Jager, already the American Record holder in the steeplechase, was on pace to break 8 minutes, before losing his balance coming off the final barrier. As a result Jarius Birech sprinted to the win and Jager settled for 8:00.45, a roughly 4 second thrashing of his own PB, but perhaps a missed opportunity that will haunt him going forward. Can he put aside the mental anguish of that fall and find redemption against the Kenyans?
Jager has run 13:02, 3:32 and 8:00 in the past two years, meaning he has the ability to run with the best Americans in any of those distance events. That's fantastic range and encouraging, consistent improvement. But even with his improved 1500 speed, Jager's kick is still questionable against top Kenyans like Birech and reigning world and Olympic champion Ezekiel Kemboi. If he makes a big push from too far out it could cost him a medal entirely, but it may be his best shot at a gold.
This is a tough one to call as I'd love to see Jager pull out the victory, but it's hard for me to imagine him duplicating a near perfect race like his run in Paris. He's clearly taken a step forward since Eugene (where he finished 4th behind Kemboi, Birech and Kipruto), but I still worry about his kick in the final stretches against this same group of guys. I know Jager has worked hard on his finish, but realistically he is going to make a strong push from a long ways out if he wants to wear Gold. That's a risky move and, in the end, it could cost him a place on the medal stand that he has earned this year.
Kemboi barely edged Birech with his finishing kick at Prefontaine, but has been quiet since. Birech seems like the next big thing in the steeplechase, but Kemboi has owned the recent championships and his close is clearly still a step above the rest. I'm intrigued to see if, even at his advanced age, he can find the magic one more time and close out Jarius.
1. Kemboi
2. Birech
3. Jager
This is a tough one to call as I'd love to see Jager pull out the victory, but it's hard for me to imagine him duplicating a near perfect race like his run in Paris. He's clearly taken a step forward since Eugene (where he finished 4th behind Kemboi, Birech and Kipruto), but I still worry about his kick in the final stretches against this same group of guys. I know Jager has worked hard on his finish, but realistically he is going to make a strong push from a long ways out if he wants to wear Gold. That's a risky move and, in the end, it could cost him a place on the medal stand that he has earned this year.
Kemboi barely edged Birech with his finishing kick at Prefontaine, but has been quiet since. Birech seems like the next big thing in the steeplechase, but Kemboi has owned the recent championships and his close is clearly still a step above the rest. I'm intrigued to see if, even at his advanced age, he can find the magic one more time and close out Jarius.
1. Kemboi
2. Birech
3. Jager
No comments:
Post a Comment