etrain's Team Rankings: District One AAA

D1 AAA

1. DT West (1 AAA)

PA has been blessed with some pretty special teams in local years. In 2013, West Chester Henderson had an amazing seven runners under 16 minutes at Lehigh with their leader Tony Russell cracking the fabled 15 minute barrier. That Henderson team won their second straight state title after they had edged out another legendary team, O’Hara, in a 6th man tie breaker in 2012. That O’Hara team went on to finish 5th at Nationals. Those three teams are likely three of the best four teams I have seen while blogging.

DT West has a chance to approach the marks of these two squads this season. It’s crazy to say considering it’s incredibly early, but on paper the potential is there. West boasts four members of the top 50 rankings, all of whom have fallen in the top 25 overall: Ryan Barton (#24), Henry Sappey (#11), Josh Hoey (#9) and Jaxson Hoey (#1). Keep in mind that this list includes members of all three PIAA classes as well as independent league runners, meaning that these four individuals are currently ranked in the top 16 for AAA. If these rankings hold up even relatively well, that would put four athletes in the medals (top 25) for the first time since 2006. The team to do it then? Coatesville, the 2006 National Champions and the best team in PA history. They put 5 in the top 18 overall. And there were only two classes back then.

The team’s big four all boast PRs in the 1600m comfortable under the SQS with three guys under 4:19 and their top runner, Jaxson, boasting a 4:10 equivalent. That’s a track resume that has not been duplicated prior to the start of the season by any team’s top four in my memory. But track does not necessarily equate directly to XC success, nor does expectation, a fact that I’m sure West will be aware of. It also takes five, six or sometimes seven reliable, motivated runners to bring home a state championship on a difficult Hershey course that usually takes out one of each team’s best guys.

Of course, that should not be a huge concern for West. In 2014 they placed 4th at the state championship with a squad of essentially all underclassmen (they graduated #5 Charlie Barton from the roster, but that was it). In addition, the 2014 team did not feature Jaxson or Josh Hoey, a pair of brothers who have each placed in the top two at the independent state championships in XC before. Jake O’Neill and Ben Ryherd, a Junior and a Senior this upcoming season, finished 70th and 99th at Hershey last fall to help catapult the team up the standings into a clear 4th over the mass of teams assembling for spots 5 and up. 70th and 99th may not sound like a big deal, but team’s like O’Hara and Henderson would have been transformed dramatically a year ago if they had those guys as their 4-5. Now, with an extra year of experience, the two are projecting to be West’s 5-6. That’s good news.

The team is also set to get back Drew Alansky, who ran 16:19 as a freshman in 2013 before Lyme’s disease kept him MIA for the majority of 2014. He still ran 9:52 for 3200m on the track as a sophomore. Shaun Bullock was a member of the varsity squad a year ago as well and added a PR of 4:33 for 1600m this spring as a sophomore. He was the team’s #3 man at districts last year and was a big reason why West got a ticket to the big dance at Parkview. All in all, West had 7 guys under 17 minutes at districts last year, one of just two teams to accomplish the feat (the other being district champs Conestoga).

This team has the talent and the depth to be successful. But will the pressure of high expectations be too much to handle? Only time will tell.

2. CB West (1 AAA)

A year after what was likely the best XC season in program history, the young squad at Central Bucks West enters this season as one of the best teams in the state of Pennsylvania. Although the hype will naturally revolve around the stacked DT West program, it’s important to remember that a year ago, CB West nearly rode a tight pack to a District title, finishing just 17 points away from Conestoga in 3rd. Then they followed it up with a 6th place finish at states, running in the top three overall teams for roughly two miles before fading down the stretch. The extra experience on the course and the extra strength that comes with another year of training could be transformative (I’m not sure any of their top 7 had ever run the state course before).

It’s clear to me this team has heart. They ran a gutsy race at states in XC and followed it up with a really strong track season that included a pair of medal worthy 4x800m performances and a trip to the COA. The catalyst behind it all was likely Rock Fortna (ET #20) who split 4:16 and 1:54 during the track season. However, the strength of this team has been their balance and depth. Behind Fortna, rising Juniors Brian Iatarola and Declan McDonald were 47th and 61st respectively at the state championships, placing both among the top 10 AAA sophomores. Both runners backed upped their marks on the trails with strong showings at 3200m (Iatarola ran 9:40, McDonald 9:47). Classmate Brian Mass also enjoyed his fair share of success during XC, placing 6th at the CRN Invite, 12th at Briarwood and 3rd at the CB East Invitational. He ran 9:43 and 16:11 on the track this past spring.

At last year’s SOL Championships, CB West dominated the JV race with a young group of runners which allowed them to find gems like rising Junior Mark McClenahan who raced for the team at states (added a 10:03 for 3200m on the track). Another runner who really came on strong during season was rising Junior Ben Smullen who ran a blazing 9:41 for 3200m. He ran 17:11 for 5k as a freshman back in 2013. West also has some intriguing pieces in their 800m stable with rising sophomores Jake Claricurzio (1:56 split, 1:57 open) and Brian Baker (2:01 open 800m) plus senior Carter Zerweck (1:58).

To me, CB West has the potential to be a great squad with an excellent pack, but it will take a step up season from at least one or two guys, turning from strong runners into stars, to allow them to reach their full potential.

8. CB East (1 AAA)

It’s not exactly a secret, but I’ll spell it out anyway. Having the best athlete in any particular sport is a huge advantage. Even in cross country, one of the most innately individual team sports in the world, having the best runner not only makes it a 4 on 5 race, but it also brings out the best in those who train with them. So the fact that CB East has Jake Brophy (ET #2) the defending district and state champion on the roster makes them an instant contender, even in District One. Couple that with the fact that this team was 6th in the loaded District One a year ago, and you’ve entered the top ten.

A year ago, East came just 11 points away from qualifying for states, finishing just behind the eventual fourth place finishers in Hershey: Downingtown West. That should make them hungry when they return to the grass this year. It’s also worth noting that this team performed quite well at the State Course a year ago. They were 5th at Foundation and the two guys they sent to states both ran excellent (2015 Grad Connor Sands joined Brophy in the top 50 last year). If they can navigate the difficult District One scene and punch their first ticket to states (possibly in the history of the program), I think they are in a great position to place extremely well.

They will need to develop a strong pack to support Brophy’s likely low stick and there are pieces here to do it. Josh Goetz ran 9:41 for 3200m last year after being a bubble individual qualifier out of D1 last year in XC (just missed in 48th). The team will also feature varsity returners Thomas Jordon, Ata Shahideh and Dan Powell. Shahideh was particularly impressive on the track this past spring, showcasing some 1:56 speed on the team’s Championship of America qualifying 4x800m relay (along with fellow returner, rising Junior Louis Kettelberger). If either can utilize that speed on the fast Lehigh course, he could become a valuable scoring member. Also worth keeping an eye on is Will Schulz who ran 9:59 for 3200m and 16:46 for 5k during the spring.

Brophy and their success a year ago makes this squad an intriguing story line, but it will take a strong pack at 2-5 to make them a top five contender come states.

Editors Note: This team almost got a last minute jump into the top 7 after Jake Brophy's recent milesplit interview. Looks like they have some really talented freshman coming in, including a 4:35 guy in David Endres. Plus I like the confidence and maturity Brophy showed in the interview. Somebody get this guy a towel because he is dripping in swag juice.

WC Henderson (1 AAA)

CR North (1 AAA)

In the past few seasons, these programs have been incredibly successful. CR North has qualified for states out of the lethal district one every year for the past decade or so. Henderson just missed the District title in 2014 after winning the previous five district titles.

The boys from CRN lose their top three from the state championships last season and have now graduated everyone from what was perhaps the team’s best squad in this decade long stretch, the 2012 3rd place squad. This team seems to be incredibly vulnerable without a single returner who placed in the top 50 at districts a season ago. But it would be silly to count this school out as a legit contender for a state qualifying spot in 2015.

North returns promising 4:23 1600m runner Ben Heintz who was the squad’s #5 at districts a year ago. Tim Haas, a rising junior who finished just outside the top 50 at districts, showed some nice potential on the trails while adding a 10:13 for 3200m on the track. Also in the mix should be promising young sophomore Matt Haldeman who ran 4:38 and 2:02 as a freshman last spring.

I’m assuming North will do as they have in the past and come on strong late in the year when it matters most. If I had to guess, this squad will grab one of the five spots to states out of District One, but, as usual, the championships at Lehigh should be no picnic.

Henderson has to navigate those same stormy waters at Lehigh and graduated their top three from last year’s District One meet in June, cutting the final ties to their back-to-back state championships in 2013 and 2014. Henderson is no stranger to graduating a talented class of seniors. In 2009, they graduated three of their best runners in Will Kellar, Achraf Khatabi and Stash Grab. The next year they finished 1st at districts and 2nd at states. In 2010 another trio of top runners went to college (Bryan Andrews, Austin Stecklair and Tim Collins), but the 2011 squad still won a district title and finished 5th at states. And of course the 2013 Henderson state title squad graduated 6 seniors before the 2014 team took a silver at districts and an 8th place finish at states despite a key fall to Gordy Barchet.

However, Henderson did not display the usual incredible depth they had in the past in 2014, which could loom large after yet another round of graduations. Henderson returns their 4-7 from districts a year ago and just one top 100 finisher from the district championships. That “one” is Spencer Smucker (ET #13), a potential star in the making after he finished 24th at states as a frosh last year.

Among the crop of talented up and comers at the team’s disposal are last year’s varsity members Ben Berkman, Apurva Deshmukh and Connor McSwain (ran 9:51 on the track for 3200m). Also keep an eye on Carson Reuther who ran 4:33 and 9:51 last spring on the track, both massive improvements on his previous seasons’ bests. Jack Downing could be another name to keep an eye on.

I’m intrigued to see how these pieces come together and how Henderson operates within District One. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them back at Hershey when the dust finally settles.

Conestoga (1 AAA)

The mark of a truly great program is how they respond in a turnover year. The last two seasons Conestoga has been a fantastic squad, finishing 2nd and 1st at Districts and grabbing silver in Hershey. But now the real test comes. Stoga graduates 6 of their top 7 guys from a year ago (leaving only ET #45 PJ Murray) as well as a few key JV runners. After boasting one of the deepest teams in the state, they will now turn to a group of varsity rookies in hopes of completing a third straight state qualifying performance at Lehigh. That would put them in a group with these well-decorated programs: WC Henderson, North Penn, CR North and Great Valley (since 2006).

History says that a team like Stoga won’t go away easily. Dating back to the 2006 D1 Championships, here is a look at how the defending champs have fared in their repeat attempts …

2006: 1st (Coatesville)

2007: 3rd (Coatesville)

2008: 1st (North Penn)

2009: 2nd (North Penn)

2010: 1st (Henderson)

2011: 1st (Henderson)

2012: 1st (Henderson)

2013: 1st (Henderson)

2014: 2nd (Henderson)

That’s a stretch of 9 years where the defending champ has managed to hold onto a spot in the top three the following season. Admittedly, those nine championships were shared by just three teams, but it speaks to the depth and talent that goes into winning a title in District One.

But … odds are that one of the top five teams from last year will not be back. And that’s not just because CB East looks like a serious contender this season. It’s because each year since 2006, there has been at least one team to make states from District One that did not make it the previous year. Considering that DTW and CBW are projected to be the best two teams in the state and Henderson and CRN are … well … Henderson and CRN, that could spell trouble for Conestoga.

Behind Murray, the team will look to utilize some of last year’s depth. Remember they were arguably the best team through seven guys in the entire state a year ago. So Theo Roberts (16:47 last year at Tennent) was likely a varsity quality guy, even on state caliber teams. He could be an impact player this season. Tim McCarthy contributed to the Varsity team at various moments last season and has proven he has serious XC chops. Also keep an eye on Aidan Lake to step in and make some noise.

It’s going to be an uphill battle for Stoga considering how excellent the competition in District One is and will continue to be, but this team is ready to show they were not a one hit wonder.