by Jarrett Felix
800m (Prelims August 21st 11:50 PM ET, Semis August 23rd 8:50 AM ET, Finals August 25th 8:55 AM ET)
At the London Olympic Games, World Record Holder David Rudisha stormed to the front and torched the track to the tune of 1:40.91 for 800m, breaking his own record and winning his first Olympic Gold. In the process, he dragged the field around him to a sea of PRs, therefore, creating the fastest top to bottom 800m race of all time. Of course that was three long years ago, and a lot has changed since Rudisha ruled the two-lapper.
800m (Prelims August 21st 11:50 PM ET, Semis August 23rd 8:50 AM ET, Finals August 25th 8:55 AM ET)
At the London Olympic Games, World Record Holder David Rudisha stormed to the front and torched the track to the tune of 1:40.91 for 800m, breaking his own record and winning his first Olympic Gold. In the process, he dragged the field around him to a sea of PRs, therefore, creating the fastest top to bottom 800m race of all time. Of course that was three long years ago, and a lot has changed since Rudisha ruled the two-lapper.
The
air of invincibility that once surrounded Rudisha has passed and as a result,
David wasn’t even the best 800m man in his own country, losing to Ferguson
Cheruiyot Rotich at the Kenyan trials. In fact, the man who has risen to
favorite status in the 800m is none other than the man Rudisha pulled to
surprising new heights in that London final: Nigel Amos of Botswana. Amos, who
ran 1:41.73 for Olympic Silver at the age of 18, is fresh off a Diamond League
title in 2014. He’s continued his dominance in 2015, finishing in the top two
for each of his DL races thus far, including a 1:42.66 in Monaco. Amos is still
just 21 years of age and has limited experience in global championships (London
is the only Senior competition he participated in thanks to an injury in 2014).
However, he has been impressing against the best in the world on the circuit
for two straight years which gives me confidence that he will be ready to grab
Gold in Beijing.
Alongside
Amos is another (alleged) youngster, defending World Champion Mo Aman of
Ethiopia. Aman, who is just two months older than Amos, has already won three
world championships (if you count his indoor world titles in 2012 and 2014). Mo
holds a PR of 1:42.37, putting him among the fastest runners in the world and
he has a bit of a reputation as a giant killer. He ended a 34-meet winning
streak for Rudisha in 2011 and is maybe the only runner to have bested the
World Record Holder when he was in peak form (he also bested him in Zurich in
2012). The Ethiopian had run under 1:43 for three straight seasons headed into
2015, when he made the switch to the Oregon Track Club. He has yet to run
faster than 1:43.56 under his new program and after an early season win on his
new home track in Eugene, he has struggled to stay relevant among the world’s
elite, finishing 8th in his last two DL meets.
Of
course one runner in this field is looking to unseat all these household names
and turn the tables in Beijing: Amel Tuka. Much like the USA’s Boris Berian, Tuka made a huge jump
this spring, torching his way from 1:46.12 down to 1:42.51 in less than 365
days. That time came in a thrilling come from behind victory over Amos and
Souleiman in Monaco. The Bosnia & Herzegovina native has transitioned out
of the 400m into the 800 and found great success in Monaco running even splits
against the big names out front. He’s certainly a bit of a wild card in China,
especially considering he will have to deal with three rounds worth of dual
lappers, but he could be extremely dangerous in the right race.
Also
worth noting are Adam Kszczot and Marcin Lewandowski from Poland. Lewandowski
(now 28) made the 2013 WC Final last year, a third straight world championship
final (he was the first man to miss the finals in the 2012 Olympic games).
Lewandowski is a consistent contender while Kszczot (who turns 26 in September)
is a runner on the rise who has learned much from his countryman. Kszczot has
run 1:43.30 for 800m and grabbed world indoor medals in both 2010 and 2014,
however he has struggled to navigate the rounds outdoors and get to the finals
since finishing 6th in Daegu back in 2011. Adam won the European
championships last year and has a great kick that hopefully will allow him to
break free of his semi-final knock out streak.
As
mentioned, Ferguson Cheruiyot beat Rudisha at the Kenyan Trials and his
confidence as skyrocketed as a result. Ferguson ran 1:42.84 in Monaco last
year, but was nearly a second slower in 2015, finishing 7th.
France’s 23 year old Pierre-Ambroise Bosse showed really promise in 2013 when
he earned a spot in the 800m final (placing 7th) at the World
Championships after barely missing his first global final in 2012. He built on
that momentum in 2014 when he ran a PR of 1:42.53. He’s struggled this year to
return to that form (his season best of 1:43.88 came at the NY Diamond League,
but he has not bested 1:45 since).
U.S. Against the World
I wrote this section a few days before news came out that Symmonds would be off the team:
I wrote this section a few days before news came out that Symmonds would be off the team:
The death of Nick Symmonds was greatly exaggerated. Symmonds looked like a shell of his former self (a former self that ran 1:42 in 2012 and grabbed silver at worlds in 2013) and geniuses like me completely counted him out of worlds contention. Then Track's Ninja Warrior blasted three straight season bests and made things look incredibly easy in front of the Hayward crowd.
Symmonds remarked that he still wasn't at 100% fitness even during USAs as he said he's chasing a medal at Worlds. With the extra couple months of training an experienced, focused Symmonds could be dangerous, even against a loaded field in Beijing. Flashy PRs and great top end speed don't mean as much when you factor in three rounds worth of action: just ask the USA's Boris Berian. Symmonds has made the last 4 global finals dating back to 2009 and has the strength and closing speed to pick off runners who went out too hard in the final meters, a strategy that could be particularly useful if David Rudisha is ready to run another front runner 1:41 type mark.
But Symmonds is getting older and this field is getting better. Navigating the semis is going to be the biggest obstacle, if he can find a way to come out clean in that death march he's got a real shot at top 3.
It makes me a bit sad looking back on it, especially because it's clear Symmonds was the United State's best shot at a final (and with recent news indicating Souleiman and Makloufi will both not run the 800m, his medal shot was even better). In his place, will now be Clayton Murphy, the Akron star who has been on a tear since NCAAs. Murphy has had a very long season and he's extremely raw going into world's. He's a long shot to make the final to say the least, but that was the case at USAs and he still came through. He has excellent strength which should increase his odds of success as he goes from one round to the next and although he has "only" run 1:45 (one of the slower PBs in this field), he ran that after two other prelims so I'd bet, on a perfect day, he would be able to drop that towards the 1:44s. However, even with a 1:44 type mark, making the final in this field would be tricky. Worst case scenario, Clayton gets some great experience for 2016 and beyond at his first World Championships. That's not too bad for a 20 year old who didn't even think he would be on this time up until about two weeks ago.
It makes me a bit sad looking back on it, especially because it's clear Symmonds was the United State's best shot at a final (and with recent news indicating Souleiman and Makloufi will both not run the 800m, his medal shot was even better). In his place, will now be Clayton Murphy, the Akron star who has been on a tear since NCAAs. Murphy has had a very long season and he's extremely raw going into world's. He's a long shot to make the final to say the least, but that was the case at USAs and he still came through. He has excellent strength which should increase his odds of success as he goes from one round to the next and although he has "only" run 1:45 (one of the slower PBs in this field), he ran that after two other prelims so I'd bet, on a perfect day, he would be able to drop that towards the 1:44s. However, even with a 1:44 type mark, making the final in this field would be tricky. Worst case scenario, Clayton gets some great experience for 2016 and beyond at his first World Championships. That's not too bad for a 20 year old who didn't even think he would be on this time up until about two weeks ago.
The Big 10 will be well represented in this event with Iowa grad Erik Sowinski and Penn State's Cas Loxsom. Both guys have excellent 400m speed, which has helped them each to the indoor 600m American Record during their career, but neither has faced an outdoor world championship final. Loxsom handled himself quite well on the Junior Stage in his younger days, but he barely even advanced at USAs as Clayton Murphy was closing hard. Sowinski currently sits with a 1:44.58 PR from last spring while Loxsom ran his 1:44.92 PR at this year's nationals in the semis. Both guys are close to top form and are more likely to pop a PR than Symmonds, but realistically these guys need to be closer to 1:43 shape to have a shot at scraping into the finals.
I like both guys' top end speed, but I have a hard time slotting either of them in my top 8. That being said with Symmonds, Solueiman and Makloufi all not on the most recent start list, their odds are rapidly increasing.
As of right now I'd expect Amos, Rudisha, Lewandowski, Aman and Kszczot to definitely get in (although nothing is ever "definite" in 800m trials). Tuka has good odds if he doesn't end up like Berian and then likely at least one of Ferguson Rotich or countrymen Alfred Kipketer. That leaves the potential for a wild card to sneak in there, but the US boys have to contend with runners like Balla (1:43 PR, hungry to make a final), Manaoui (great 1500m strength to help in the rounds), and Pierre Bosse (excellent runner with 1:42 PR, but has been streaky at times this year). Just to name a few.
As of right now I'd expect Amos, Rudisha, Lewandowski, Aman and Kszczot to definitely get in (although nothing is ever "definite" in 800m trials). Tuka has good odds if he doesn't end up like Berian and then likely at least one of Ferguson Rotich or countrymen Alfred Kipketer. That leaves the potential for a wild card to sneak in there, but the US boys have to contend with runners like Balla (1:43 PR, hungry to make a final), Manaoui (great 1500m strength to help in the rounds), and Pierre Bosse (excellent runner with 1:42 PR, but has been streaky at times this year). Just to name a few.
This final is really up for debate. Amos seems to be to the favorite with a strong close and consistent victories against top competition. David Rudisha is the only man I can see taking him down if he can run the legs out of him from 400m to 600m. The Rudisha that ran 1:40 in London may never be coming back, but if he can approach that level of excellence, he at least has a shot. I can’t see him winning any other way considering the closing ability of his competitors and his weaker showings in the slower meets this year. A fast pace could potentially favor poised runners with even splits who can take off down the home straightaway and steal a few places: someone like Tuka or Kszczot. Kszczot’s my sleeper pick here (and not just because of all the “z”s in his name).
I think Rudisha gets out hard, Amos hangs and Kszczot picks up the pieces. Aman potential to play spoiler if he is on form, but I'm not sure he is.
1. Amos
2. Kszczot
3. Rudisha
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