The Etrain 11: Four Years In the Making

As runners, we typically put a lot of pressure on ourselves. Each workout could be overanalyzed-recycled through your mind with the hope of finding one small thing to make yourself better. The weight of that pressure can sometimes be crushing. So imagine having expectations thrust upon you from outside forces. Not just teammates or coaches, but also fans you’ve never met before.

At the 2014 Paul Short Championships, Owen J Roberts freshman Liam Conway turned heads with a blazing fast 16:10 in sloppy conditions. He was the top 9^th grader in the marquee invitational and his time was one of the best we’d ever seen from such a young runner at the beginning of October. His name popped up in the comment section on PA’s distance running blogs. Conway likely didn’t know it then, but from every point forward, XC fans would be looking for his name in results. Could this top tier freshman maintain his prowess? Would he develop into a future star?

It had to be quite a bit of pressure. A few weeks later, when Conway returned to Lehigh, he ran a mark of 16:21. Although he qualified for the state championships as a freshman (a rare feat from District One) and posted a terrific time, because of his early season success, these outstanding results were surprisingly underappreciated.

It was here, at this same district championship, that another freshman started to become a household name. Henderson’s Spencer Smucker took an impressive 18^th overall in this meet. The result was easily Smucker’s best race of the season, dropping a 16:15 in tough conditions. Smucker’s big breakthrough was the main reason Henderson came within a few points of winning the district championship for an unthinkable 6^th straight season.

Of course, Smucker wasn’t finished. A week later, Spencer topped all freshmen in the state by posting a 24^th place finish in the AAA state championship. Smucker’s medal winning performance marked the first time a freshman had cracked the podium since Vince McNally did it in 2004. All of a sudden, the expectations for this freshman went from reasonable to extraordinary. He entered a class of names that include some all-time greats and anything less than the best ever would suddenly be a letdown to some people.

As just a freshman in high school, that pressure can be overwhelming. It’s why some top young athletes disappear from the state landscape by the time they are seniors. Smucker and Conway, the top two AAA freshmen at states, were going to be featured names on Penntrack’s top returning list for an entire summer. They would instantly have bullseyes on their back from every kid who with a milesplit subscription: from District One all the way to Erie.

It’s hard to stay at the top. Even the previously unbeatable Mo Farah and Usain Bolt couldn’t close out their world championship careers with gold medals. People will always come along to challenge the throne. But as sophomores, the expectations really start to climb. The runners have had a year in the system, a year of growth and maturity and a year of experiences. Conway and Smucker were not the top 2 in AAA as sophomores, but they were #2 and #4 in the class. Smucker improved from 24^th to 15^th while Conway jumped into the top 30 for the first time with a 28^th place finish.

Although these results were excellent, other names were starting to permeate the class of 2018. Josh Hoey of DT West was a national qualifier, leading his team to a regional championship. Rusty Kujdych, one of the state’s fastest 3200 runners as a freshman, was making waves as an aggressive, gutsy racer. Other districts were creating contenders as well such as Noah Beveridge of Butler and Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg. All in all, 7 sophomores took top 50 spots at the 2015 state championships, one of the best totals in recent years.

By the time Conway and Smucker got to be juniors, they were still top tier names, but the narrative around them had clearly changed. The pressure of being the #1 runner in the class had drifted away, landing on runners like Kujdych and Hoey instead. Meanwhile, Conway and Smucker had other goals. Liam raced to his first individual championship in the Pioneer League. Smucker led his West Chester Henderson teammates to a seemingly impossible state qualifying performance as a team in the 2016 district championships. As juniors, “class ranking” titles didn’t matter so much. Other goals became more important and these two raced admirably, making many of those goals reality.

Ultimately, when the dust settled at states, Smucker was the #4 junior in AAA, placing 12^th overall. Conway suffered an injury at the end of the season and slipped back out of the medal hunt entirely.

Three plus years in high school gives you some perspective. For Smucker and Conway, they had seen what pressure was. They had been under the microscope from practically the time they entered the sport. That type of scrutiny would break certain types of athletes, but not this pair. They were determined to succeed.

During their sophomore and junior seasons, even though they were not “tops in their class” anymore, these two runners were consistently improving. Conway had yet to grab a state medal in XC, but he helped lead Owen J Roberts to a top 10 finish in the district and his school was suddenly emerging as a legitimate XC force. Plus, he made huge strides on the track. His junior season included two medals on the indoor oval and another outdoors, only denied state championships by Carlisle’s three-headed monster.

As for Smucker, he led Henderson to back to back state qualifying performances after they graduated the last ties to their state championship teams in 2012 and 2013. He started a new era by consistently improving as a front runner. Each year he went to Hershey, he got better and was closer to the front of the field. On the track, Spencer had his best ever season as junior, making the state final in the 1600 meters.

Conway and Smucker entered their senior seasons more battle tested than arguably any other runner they faced. In time, that would prove to be a blessing rather than a curse. The OJR senior made the first big statement, dropping a 15:08 at Paul Short to join a truly elite all-time list. The same meet that had originally put him on the map as a freshman also provided the result that would set the tone for his senior season. Smucker added some marquee moments of his own, breaking 16 at Carlisle and 13 at Manhattan for the first time. Both runners won their league championships, a first for Smucker, and Conway even led his Owen J Roberts team to a surprise third place finish in the district.

Entering the state championship, neither Smucker nor Conway had posted a top 10 finish in Hershey. In perhaps their final race, the pressure was on both to find a breakthrough. When the final standings were posted, Conway took 8^th place and Smucker took 9^th as the boys capped off their last state meet with career best finishes. For Smucker, it was his 4^th straight state medal, each one a higher place than the last. No one can boast that resume of elite running and consistent performance. Not even the all-time greats that freshman medal put him in the league of.

At the end of the day, the two top freshmen from the class of 2018 left Hershey with careers that almost all would be envious of. But they weren’t finished.

Entering national qualifying weekend, Smucker and Conway, once the first names on everyone’s minds, were relative afterthoughts in the conversation for who would punch tickets to the west coast. At Bowdoin Park, the runners both lined up with confidence. Under a surprisingly little amount of scrutiny, they raced. The same way they had every race leading up to that point.

After weeks of training outside of the regular season, most runners would be mentally worn out or defeated. But these two were stronger mentally than most. Conway stuck his nose in it for the win and was rewarded with a 2^nd place overall finish at the regional championships. Smucker put himself in a qualifying position and held on through to the finish, claiming the last of 5 automatic qualifying spots for Nationals.

When the results went official, it was revealed that Conway (2^nd) and Smucker (5^th) had posted the best two regional finishes from PA high schoolers at either Footlocker or Nike Northeast. In other words, Conway and Smucker capped off their regional meets just as they started their careers: as the top two PA runners in the class of 2018.

The talent that these runners displayed at an early age was undeniable. Anyone who looked at their results could tell you they had potential. But what you couldn’t know at that time was the determination and resiliency these runners had at their disposal. And, ultimately, that is what will define your success as a runner.

Congrats to Liam and Spencer on terrific careers. The next generation of PA runners is looking up to the positive examples you set.

Good luck to both runners at nationals. And, hey, have fun out there because, for once, there’s no pressure. 

2017 Regional Recaps

Footlocker Northeast

Rusty Kujdych was PA’s best hope for a national qualifier this weekend and the Neshaminy senior delivered. Kujdych clocked a 15:51 to take the 8^th of 10 qualifying spots out at Footlocker Northeast. I believe this was Kujdych’s first time at the regional meet and he acquitted himself well. Personally, I think Rusty may have even more to give come Nationals. As our 24^th qualifier over the past 12 seasons, Rusty will need a top 25 finish to be in the top half of PA qualifiers during that span. I think that is very possible. We’ve had only 6 top 20 finishers so that may be a bit more of a longshot. Congrats to Rusty on coming through in a high pressure situation. Now he gets to go to California, enjoy himself and just have fun. That could produce a big result.

Josh Hoey finished as the #2 PA athlete in the meet, posting a 15^th place finish overall. The Shanahan senior ran a solid race and defeated a few runners that had bested him previously at states. Overall, Hoey put together a fantastic senior year. He placed top 20 at Footlocker, earned a top 10 finish in the state, nearly stole a district title and produced multiple sub 15:20 marks. He’s certainly got more momentum heading into track season than he did a year ago which is scary to think about.

Tyler Wirth and Morgan Cupp rounded out PA’s top 25 finishers. Wirth caps off a strong first XC season with a 22^nd place finish in the regional. He is currently the #8 returner for a bid to nationals next year. Hard to believe this guy was basically off the radar at season’s end, unclear if he would even run XC. And remember he might be better at track …

As for Cupp, he caps off his season well in his own right with a 25^th place run. Maybe he was looking for more, but Cupp has had a lot to be proud of. When he first got to Mechanicsburg, the team was a non-factor at the District level. Now, after 4 straight trips to states and 2 straight medal winning performances, Mechanicsburg has become a powerhouse. They have qualified for states two years in a row, defying long shot odds and battling tough challengers. He’ll be missed next year.

Interesting results from farther down the list- Zach Leachman joins sleeper guys like Matt D’Aquila and Matt O’Neill from the past as a top 40 finisher at regionals after finishing outside the top 50 at states. Leachman, just a sophomore, ran to 38^th overall in this field and really showed up for the western part of the state. He was PA’s #5 high schooler when the dust settled. Jack Miller of Jenkintown topped the standings for non-AAA runners just ahead of Peter Borger of Malvern Prep and the familiar foe of Andrew Healey of Holy Cross. The three runners all finished within a second of one another. Miller and Healey return next year in a battle for #1 in PA’s A class.

But perhaps the performance of the day came from Mifflin County freshman Brayden Harris. The 9^th grader dropped a 16:37 to win the frosh-soph race by an astounding 19 seconds over sophomore Owen Johnson. That time would have been within the top 40 overall in the championship race and, in theory, he could have run faster with additional competition. Harris’s teammate, Chayce Macknair, ended the season as a AAA state medalist and will return next season along with Harris. That could be a monster 1-2 punch for a sleeper pick from Mifflin County.

Antonio Burkhart of Bethel Park doubled down on his terrific championship season with a 5^th place finish in the frosh/soph race while Max Lessans of Hempfield led the way for PA in the junior/senior race clocking a strong 17:03 for 2^nd overall. That caps off a really underrated two year stretch for Lessans who spent some time in the shadows of fast teammates, but was a very consistent performer who was a big reason Hempfield won a district championship and added a top 10 team finish for the first time in recent memory.

Nike Northeast

The top 10 runners from the 2016 edition graduated, opening the door for some surprises. I suspected that these surprises would come from some of the less-known parts of the state, but in the end the always strong District One Pennsylvania showed up in a big way. PA put 3 runners in the top 10 overall for the fourth time in recent years (2012, 2013, 2015) and also owned the 18^th and 24^th overall positions courtesy of the 1-2 punch from DT West of Sewall and Rollins. I thought both of those guys had terrific days that me end up overshadowed in the final tally as we focus on the big three who led the way. Not exactly breaking news here, but Sewall is just a junior and will be back next year to maybe sneak into the national qualifying conversation. His finish this year is comparable (in terms of place) to Ryan Campbell, Ryan James, Brent Kennedy and Kevin James the year before they were top 10 finishers at their respective regional championships.

But let’s focus up on the big three. Liam Conway, Spencer Smucker and Ryan Campbell finished in the exact same order they did in their last race in Hershey. For Ryan Campbell, he put together a strong race, finishing better at regionals than he did at states. Campbell will end up just a few spots away from national qualifying, but put together a terrific senior season that ends on a pretty high note in Bowdoin Park.

While I predicted Campbell’s place reasonably well, I didn’t see Smucker or Conway getting to nationals. As I mentioned in the preview, I was pleasantly surprised that Conway even decided to extend his season and the decision pays off big time with a 2^nd place finish at the regional championship. He joins a pretty elite club of PA finishers and will now see if he can double down on that performance in Portland. We have had just 6 top 50 finishers at NXN since the move to allow individuals and teams in 2008. Our most recent is Kent Hall from 2015 (32^nd) who was another surprise national qualifier with some momentum on his side. Only Tony Russell has won the NXN regional (Russell was the #1 guy in my all decade team a few years back) so Conway’s 2^nd place finish puts him up there with the best.

Smucker was the biggest surprise for me personally and adds his name to the long list of Henderson runs to qualify for this meet. Smucker was 5^th overall in this meet, a drastic improvement over his finish one year previously. He exceeded his state finish and probably a lot of readers expectations, but how will he handle NXN? Henderson runners in the past have had success at Nats. In the mud bowl of 2012, Reiny Barchet took 21^st overall. Tony Russell was 11^th in 2013. Those two are the best ever finishes for a PA athlete at NXN. Henderson has also had top 100 finishes from Alex Knapp (86^th) and Bobby Rimkis (99^th).

As pointed out by one of our commenters, Conway and Smucker were the top 2 finishers from the Henderson 3200. That little meet has very quietly prepared many of our top runners for regional success. Our two national qualifiers from NXN this season ran at that meet. In 2016, the top two finishers at Henderson’s invite were also the top 2 finishers at Footlocker Northeast. Nate Henderson, another Footlocker Finalist, competed at Henderson’s 3200, while Ryan James, the top runner at NXNE, was there too.

There have been other success stories too (the 2012 O’Hara v. Henderson battle also featured NXN qualifier Sami Aziz). I’m not sure if it’s just selection bias (the best runners are naturally going to look for a meet to test themselves, plus Henderson and the Ches-mont have housed a lot of those best runners) or something more (you need a little mid-training race to keep the spark going). Definitely something to keep an eye on as we look ahead. 

The Writing Muscles Are Warming Back Up: NXN Preview

The National Qualifying for the NXN meet is a little different than that of Footlocker. Unlike, FLNE where the top 10 are in no matter what, the boys from NXN are dependent on which teams qualifying. Like a typical district meet, the top two teams make nationals and the top five individuals, not on those teams, will also qualify. So we’ve seen guys finish 9^th and qualify (like Sami Aziz of GFS in 2012) but we’ve also seen guys finish 8^th and not go (like Ryan James just last year).

Predicting national qualifiers for the regional meet is further muddled by the fact that the talent level has fluctuated over the years. If you like at early results, you can see that some guys finished in the top 10-15 with slower times than guys in the 40s in other years. There has also been some wacky weather at this meet to further complicate things. Unionville’s Kent Hall (a national qualifier in 2015) may be the craziest example of a national qualifier we have ever had and he got his spot from NXN.

Overall, I actually prefer not to look at history for this event (gasp) and just look at the guys and guestimate their talent. It’s not an exact science, but I try my best. Among the big names at this event we have small school state champions in Isaac Davis (AA) and Tristan Forsythe (A) and also boast AAA state medalists like Liam Conway, Spencer Smucker, Ryan Campbell, Ethan Koza, Sam Earley, Andrew Malmstrom and Peyton Sewall. Also keep an eye on top 5 AA finisher Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock. Team wise it looks like DT West, Henderson, maybe Shanahan, Carlisle and Avon Grove will be in attendance. CRN’s top 4 was on the entries last I checked, but they may not have gone with a full 5.  

Based on results to date, the best guy I’ve seen from this crop is Isaac Davis. He really impressed me at states when he dominated a strong AA field en route to a 20 second victory. How many victories have we seen by 20 seconds over the years? Noah Affolder and Jake Brophy had 15 and 14 second wins (although that was in AAA) and those are two of PA’s best ever. Tony Russell never got into double digits for golds if memory serves. I like Griffin Molino from 2013 is the only guy as he won by 31 seconds in A that season.

Molino, I feel, is an apt comparison. The small school runner rolled through states with one of the day’s fastest times. It was unclear whether that performance would translate to the regional meets, but Molino went to NXN and punched a ticket to nationals in 15:55. That remains the 3^rd fastest performance by a PA runner ever at this regional course. It was also Molino’s junior season.

I think Davis has some similar attributes. He’s been excellent this season, rolling to blazing times and runaway victories. But he also has to carry the burden of needing to prove himself as Davis has not raced much AAA competition head to head this year. Ironically, Davis and Molino both ran out of District 4. Molino’s district time in 2013 was 16:03 and Davis’s was 15:58 (although Molino won by roughly 85 seconds).

Fellow state champ Tristan Forsythe is another man who has the burden of proof on his shoulders. Forsythe has cruised to victories against small school competition seemingly every race he runs and looked incredibly comfortable at states. Clearly he’s got more left in the tank and, unlike Davis, Forsythe posted a big result at this meet last year that should boost his confidence. Tristan was 13^th as a junior and clocked 16:16. That’s about a second off what Wade Endress posted his junior season. A year later, Endress made it to nationals. It’s also faster than what Ryan James ran as a junior. James ended up just a few ticks away from nationals last fall. So Forsythe is in good company.

The AAA field is pretty stacked. I’m interested to see how Liam Conway runs at this meet. He’s got great track ability so it wouldn’t have surprised me if he hung up his XC spikes to focus up on the oval, but I’m excited that he is extending his season a bit more. There will be plenty of time to get in track shape (as he knows from last year) so I like this decision. Conway was a top 10 guy at states and, although he didn’t break into that coveted top 5, we’ve seen more non-top 5 types make it to nationals out of this meet than Footlocker. I already mentioned national qualifier Kent Hall (11^th at states in 2015, 6^th at NXN) and near qualifier Ryan James (8^th at states in 2016, 8^th at NXN), but there are also Reiny Barchet (19^th at states in 2012, 2^nd at NXN) and Brad Miles (7^th in 2008, 6^th at NXN) who both qualified. Aaron Gebhart was outside the top 50 at states his senior year but took 10^th at the regional.

Conway clearly has big talent – his 15:08 from Paul Short put him in a group with almost exclusively national qualifiers. His 9:13 for 3200 was also a big surprise. He’s now run sub 9:15, 4:15 and 1:55 with a sub 15:10. That’s a pretty unique skill set. Plus, he’s got a partner in crime for this training block which, as I mentioned in Footlocker, is huge. I can’t stress enough how much having another person around to help do the extra training can help.

That same argument goes for Spencer Smucker of Henderson and the 3 CRN medalists. These four also have the added advantage of having been to this regional course last year. Ryan Campbell (17^th) is among the top returners and has the extra motivation of losing the state championship in tie breaker to help him grind through the extra weeks. I like Campbell as a darkhorse national qualifier. We’ve seen Keith Capecci, Chris Campbell and Ross Wilson all get there from this program. Maybe Ryan is next in line. I think Smucker is a bit more of a long shot, however, he beat Campbell head to head at states and was just a place behind Conway. The three familiar faces should be able to run together and make a nice push. And ches-mont runners have made noise on this course before. We’ve had 17 PA performers place in the top 10 finishers at NXN. Of that group, 6 were Ches-mont guys including 3 different national qualifiers.

I think Peyton Sewall could be a sleeper for a big day. He had a really nice race at this meet a year ago as one of the team’s key scorers. And that was last year, when Sewall wasn’t even a varsity runner at the state meet. Now he is a state medalist with confidence and fast PRs. I could see Sewall having a day like Alex Knapp from year’s past and sneaking into the top 20.

Does DT West have a shot at qualifying for nationals as a team? I couldn’t really tell you as I don’t know enough about the team’s outside the Keystone. However, I will say that these team has a strong pack, experience on the course, and extra motivation after their state loss. Personally, I really like how teams like DT West and Henderson have made this meet a yearly part of their schedule. I think you need that mentality to extend your season. It’s a grind in the extra November weeks, but if it is what you are used to, that makes it a little easier mentally. I’m rooting for DT West to pull off a big surprise, similar to what we saw from GFS in 2009 or North Allegheny in 2008. It’s a long shot, but, hey, that’s why you run the race.

As I mentioned at the top, I like Quinn Serfass as a sleeper. He has raced with Isaac Davis in the past and sometimes having a familiar face to chase at the front of race not only rhymes, but also helps you gauge your effort and confidence in an unfamiliar place like Bowdoin park. Again, a top 10 finish is a long shot, but I could see Serfass sneaky into the top 20 if things really break right. I’m also excited to watch Andrew Malmstrom on the course. He’s been on fire the last two meets and then added a sub 9:40 for 3200. This magical year for Owen J Roberts will hopefully have a happy ending for Malmstrom and Conway.

Ultimately, I’m not sure where to go with my predictions. Unlike Footlocker, PA doesn’t always get a national qualifier from NXN. So it’s possible we could have no one this year. I think I would slot Davis and Forsythe as the top 2 guys in this field from PA. And I’d probably go with Davis to qualify and Forsythe to be on the bubble somewhere around 9^th or 10^th. I could see Ryan Campbell making nationals as well. Maybe in that same 8-10 range as Ryan James last year.

Best of luck to everyone competing and thanks for extending your schedule to represent PA on the national scene! This weekend, we are all teammates for the first time. That’s pretty exciting.

Let’s see if PA still doesn’t play … 

The Regionals Are Coming: Footlocker

I’ve recently been using my computer mostly for 1999 Backyard Football so let’s see if these writing muscles still work …

Footlocker Qualifiers Fact Sheet

Some of PA’s best runners in the state will compete this weekend for a spot on the line in California for the prestigious Footlocker Championships. The top 10 runners in this weekend’s regional championship will qualify for the National finals. It’s as simple as that. Historically, PA has had 23 qualifiers over the past 11 seasons (about 2 per year). That doesn’t count PA residents who go to school out of state (i.e. Dalton Hengst, Phil Wood). So, if you are a numbers guy, you’d place your bets on 2 guys to make it out of this regional in NY.

Flipping back through the history, let’s take a look at our profile of Footlocker finalists. I’ve organized the names by the place at Footlocker Northeast Regionals.

1^st – Brad Miles (2009), Noah Affolder (2016)

2^nd – Mark Dennin (2007), Jake Brophy (2015), Sam Affolder (2016)**

4^th – Casey Comber (2014), Brendan Shearn (2012)

5^th – Chris Aldrich (2007), Jake Brophy (2014)*, Dustin Wilson (2011), Rad Gunzenhauser (2009)

7^th – Vince McNally (2007), Max Norris (2012)

8^th – Chris Campbell (2010), Ryan Gil (2009)*, Zach Skolnekovich (2016)

9^th – Paul Springer (2006), Zach Hebda (2010), Nathan Henderson (2016), Brent Kennedy (2012)*

10^th – Ross Wilson (2013), Austin Pondel (2012), Ben Furcht (2008)

Out of that group of 23, the majority were seniors. We’ve had just three junior qualifiers (denoted with a *) and one sophomore (denoted with a **).

Now let’s look at this by year.

2006 – 1 (10^th)

2007 – 3 (2^nd, 5^th, 7^th)

2008 – 1 (10^th)

2009 – 3 (1^st, 5^th, 8^th)

2010 – 2 (9^th, 10^th)

2011 – 1 (5^th)

2012 – 4 (4^th, 7^th, 9^th, 10^th)

2013 – 1 (10^th)

2014 – 2 (4^th, 5^th)

2015 – 1 (2^nd)

2016 – 4 (1^st, 2^nd, 8^th, 9^th)

If you are looking for some type of trend, we rarely follow up a big qualifier year with another big qualifier year. That means we could only end up with 1 guy this year. Personally, I’m leaning towards two getting in, but you never know. It’s a tough, ultra-competitive meet.

OK, now that’s look back and figure out how the Foolocker qualifiers finished at their respective state championships. First, let’s take a look at only the AAA qualifiers. AAA qualifiers make up the majority of the qualifiers as only Brendan Shearn, Dustin Wilson and Zach Skolnekovich punched a ticket from outside the large schools.

1^st @ States – 5

2^nd @ States – 5

3^rd @ States – 5

4^th @ States – 2

6^th @ States – 1

11^th @ States – 1

18^th @ States – 1

Note that our two AA national qualifiers were both 2^nd at states in what most would consider upsets. Dustin Wilson (from the Independent league) was a runaway champ in his league by perhaps the largest margin in meet history (I think he was also a back to back champion if memory serves).

Yes, there have been a few guys that look like long shots (18^th and 11^th at states), but note that those two guys (McNally and Furcht) were district champs and were my individual state champion picks prior to the state meet. Which brings me to the next point, where did I predict each of these guys to finish at states? Now for some of them, I won’t know exactly (I didn’t always have a blog), but I’ll estimate for the sake of the exercise.

1^st @ States – 7 {Miles, Affolder, Brophy (2015), McNally, Campbell, Springer, Furcht}

So basically the guy I picked to win states made Footlocker Nats 7 out of 11 years. The years I didn’t would have been 2011 (no AAA runners made it), 2012 (my predicted champ ran NXN, my runner-up was Brent Kennedy who made nationals), 2013 (I didn’t make official predictions during my gap year but my pick went to NXN, my runner-up probably would have been Ross Wilson who ended up making FL Nats), 2014 (I did a weird prediction thing that year, but my top guys who ended up going to FL were likely Abert, Brophy, Comber and Power).

When you think about, my top predicted runner out of those who competed at Footlocker usually ended up making Footlocker, even when they didn’t win the state championship. Now that isn’t meant to make me sound like a genius or justify all my whiffs at states, but is meant more to indicate that typically, the best guy in the state all year ends up in the National Championships more so than they end up the state champion.

It also means that guys who have redemption on their mind during their training block are more likely to post big results at regionals. That was the story behind Skolnekovich last fall. It was also the story in years past for guys like Ben Furcht and Neal Berman (11^th), the North Hills monster (Hebda, Silenieks in 11^th, Kush in 13^th) and more. Also worth mentioning, notice that these guys had training partners run with them through the end of the season. It’s a long grind to train the extra weeks and having a guy there by your side really helps.

I say that kind of stuff every year so if you’ve been reading me for a while you probably could have predicted yourself what half of these paragraphs would be saying. But now I’m going to take all that rambling and turn it into a prediction.

I’ve got Rusty Kujdych making it to Footlocker. He’s been our #1 guy all season and has tested himself in some big time meets. He doesn’t have experience at this particular meet which scares me a tiny bit, but the guy has undoubtedly been our biggest star in 2017. I’d be surprised if he isn’t in the top 10. To be fair, I don’t know anything about the big names outside of PA, but my hunch is a top 5 finish for Rusty. Maybe 3^rd because we haven’t had one of those in a while.

I also think Noah Beveridge is going to get in. Maybe I’m being stubborn since I picked him to win states, but I like the Butler senior’s ability to peak. He has a training partner in Brett Brady who looks like he is extending his season through to regionals. He has experience from racing here a year ago. I feel like he probably has a little redemption on his mind as well. Even though he ran well at states, he may have been hoping for a bit more as he was closer to 3^rd than 1^st. I could see Noah sneaking in around 10^th.

After that, I don’t see anybody cracking the top 10. However, there are some names that should be noted. #1 is Josh Hoey of Bishop Shanahan. It appears that he and his brother Jonah are signed up for this meet. If Josh ends up running, it is undoubtedly with the goal of qualifying for Footlockers. As we saw during XC last year, Josh is not afraid to go all in on track season at the expense of XC so the fact that he is skipping some of his track training blog to chase a nationals spot should indicate he is hungry and motivated. He likely was hoping to be competing for a state title as well last weekend and finished “just” 7^th in the field. I’ve got a feeling he will bounce back, potentially really picking off guys the second half of the race. I could see him in that 8-12 range. I don’t have him in, but it would be silly to count him out completely.

Morgan Cupp and Tyler Wirth will likely be competing for scoring spots on the PA team. Cupp has had a very consistent season. I’m not sure he can pop off the otherworldly performance it takes to break into that top 10, but he is the kind of guy that could definitely dip into the top 20 or better. Cupp has two top 50 state finishers in his lockerroom that are helping him train these few weeks as well. That makes him an x-factor. As for Wirth, he’s just a junior in his first XC season so he’s not your typical Footlocker qualifier, but he’s also a massive talent who placed 5^th in the state. So really the sky is the limit for this kid from Wallenpaupack. I’m very excited he is racing this meet if for no other reason than he will gain some valuable experience for a national qualifying attempt during his senior year.

Mitchell Etter of State College (state medalist and district champ), Czar Tarr, Christian Groff, Andrew Foster and Owen Isham are all compelling AAA entries.

From the smaller sections, we have the 3^rd and 4^th place finishers from A (Jack Miller and Andrew Healey) as well as AA bronze medalist Jonah Powell. All of these guys are underclassmen (Healey a sophomore), meaning they have a chance to make noise this year and next year if things break right. Their performances this weekend, while long shots for a big run to the top 10-12, could set the tone for a run at a state championship or national qualifying performance next year. Plus, this is a chance to prove to the large school elites that they belong in the conversation for tops in the state. Don’t sleep on South Fayette’s Sam Snodgrass either. If he shows up for this meet after his state meet where he slipped back a bit in the second half of the race, he has the “redemption” card to play. Much like Zach Skolnekvoich, another AA WPIAL guy, Snodgrass could be just hungry enough to upset some people.

The independent league duo of Elias Lindgren and Peter Borger will also be in the mix. The independent league school, in my opinion, lends itself a bit better to a regionally timed peak as their state championship isn’t hyped in quite the same way as the PIAAs. And for the record, Borger and Lindgren are really good runners. We haven’t seen them much against the elite AAA talent, but we will get a real good look at them this weekend and I think people will be impressed. Remember, everyone is in the same field for indoor states and this race could set a tone for these independent leaguers at PSU next year.

A few more names I haven’t mentioned yet: Evan Kreider of Cocalico, Brett Pope of Bellefonte, Ben Reisenweaver of Schuylkill Valley, Andrew Stanley of Southern Huntington, Mark Brown of Greensburg Salem and Jacob Underwood of Wilson. Some youngsters will hit the cross including the ultra talented Penns Valley freshmen (alongside senior leader Chris Colwell), sophomore sensations like Ben Hoffman and Garrett Baublitz and other notable freshmen like Brayden Harris of Mifflin County and Van May of Bedford.

These entries are based on the Footlocker website that I skimmed earlier this morning. More names may pop up (post them in the comments), but also we may see some names that were entered who decide that it is best not to continue their season past Thanksgiving (feel free to comment about that too).

It’s also worth noting that there will be many top names (including a pair of state champions) that compete at the NXN Regional championship meet to try and qualify for that national championship. I’ll hit that one up with a preview later on this week. So stay tuned for the continued rust-busters from etrain11.

Etrain Scavenger Hunt

Hi readers, while I’m on my vacation, I figured I’d take the time to give you guys a little fun activity to keep you busy. This is a scavenger hunt with some hints below that will guide you through the steps. This is meant to be difficult (I want it to keep you busy after all), but maybe it won’t be as hard as I think. If you get through it, we will try to come up with a prize for you for your efforts (suggestions are welcome).

Follow the steps below, keep careful track of the clues that you receive and best of luck in the hunt! Each set of steps will lead you to a post with a specific key word. You use this post to then find a clue which, combined with the other clues, will lead you to the final post. Comment on that post to achieve victory!

P.S. If anyone finds any errors with my clues, let me know and I will fix! Kind of making this up on the fly …

Step One

Date of Post

Month Clue: The number of XC District titles held by Rusty Kujdych

Year Clue: The same year as this post

Day Clue: The first place that doesn’t medal at XC states

Name in Post

First Name Clue: The first name of the runner who was 7^th at XC states in 2007

Last Name Clue: The Top runner on PA’s national qualifying team in 2009

What you’ll need to crack the code:

Go to the runner’s name that the clues lead you to. Note that runner’s mile time within the post. Be sure to note the minutes and seconds.

Step Two

Date of Post

Month Clue: Avery Lederer’s best XC states finish

Year Clue: The year Tony Russell won his second XC state title

Day Clue: Seneca Valley’s #2 runner got this place at states this year

Name in Post

First Name Clue: Three time XC state qualifier who also holds a sub 1:51 indoor 800 PR from 2014

Last Name Clue: The first name of Upper Dublin’s last male individual XC state qualifier before Ben Brugger

What you’ll need to crack the code:

Find the runner’s name above in the predictions. Count the # of 1s in this person’s predicted time. You will add that number to the minutes from step one. This is your month to use for the final post.

Step Three

Date of Post

Month Clue: The number runner that Ethan Koza was for CRN at XC States and Districts

Year Clue: Tristan Forsythe’s first XC medal position (plus 2,000)

Day Clue: The 2013 AAA XC State Champ’s top placing individual in 2014

Name in Post

First Name Clue: Henderson’s top runner (last name) the last time they were second at states (but without the “s”)

Last Name Clue: The top freshman in District One way back in the day when I was a freshman (last name)

What you’ll need to crack the code:

Find the runner’s name in the post and look for that runner’s high school. Note the name of the high school, but ignore the syllable that has something to do with winter weather.

Step Four

Date of Post

Month Clue: Number of times Spring Ford has qualified for states in the last 12 years

Year Clue: The year the last time CRN won the state championship

Day Clue: Number of times Owen J Roberts has qualified for states in the last 12 years

Name in Post

First Name Clue: 4:15 miler from Elizabethtown (first name)

Last Name Clue: Most recent 10^th place finisher from Footlocker Regionals (last name)

What you’ll need to crack the code:

Find this runner’s name in the post and note their finish at the Manhattan Invitational. If you add that from the seconds from Step One, you will get either the day or the year of the post you are looking for. I’ll let you figure out which one.

Step Five

Date of Post

Month Clue: Best finish at AAA states by a freshman since 2006 (divided by the times this runner won an XC state medal)

Year Clue: “Worst” AAA finish by a #1 runner on a state championship XC team last 12 seasons (plus 2,000)

Day Clue: 2^nd best finish at AAA states by a freshman since 2006

Name in Post

First Name Clue: Didn’t win WPIALs but won AAA states within the last decade (first name)

Last Name Clue: Two brothers who placed in the same spot at XC states their junior year (shared last name)

What you’ll need to crack the code:

Find the runner’s name in the post. Note the last word of the paragraph that includes this runner’s name. Remember what you got in Step Two.

Step Six

Use the clues from Steps 1 through 5 to figure out the post you need to comment on. Then win!

The First #DerailTheTrain Team

Well folks, the state recaps are officially up and I’ll be taking a break from the PA specific coverage for the next couple weeks to refresh before track season. You may see some posts circling around the site from time to time (sometimes I just like to write for the sake of writing), but if you are a hard core PA distance fan, you’re going to have to bide your time a bit.

Incidentally, if you have any interest at all in being a writer for the next edition of this blog, now is the perfect time to jump on board. You can get in some practice on the site without me to overshadow your work. You can try some posts out, see how you like it, get feedback from myself and other readers and just have fun talking about the sport. If you don’t have my email its jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com so now you do. That means there’s no excuse! It goes for boys coverage or girls coverage if there are some of you out there who want to get involved in that. There’s a big untapped market for that stuff so the door is open for someone to become the female etrain. The shetrain if you will (not my idea, a brilliant idea from many years ago).

If we get enough writers on board, the site continues and it gives me a place to come check in at if I ever feel the itch to drop an occasion post.

But anyway, with my last recap-style post of the season, I wanted to touch on some of biggest step up performers from this year’s state meet. I decided to boldly try and predict the entire AAA state meet from 1 to 240 this past week. There was plenty to be wrong about (on average my picks were off by +/- 25 spots) which meant some kids really exceeded expectations. I’ll give you those names in this post as a shout to those kids. Here’s the top 12 over-performers ranked by net difference (actual – projected).

Noah Demis	So	North Penn
Jake Robinson	Sr	Conestoga
Paul Ghantous	Jr	LaSalle
Marino Bubba	So	Bangor
Marco Cardone	So	Easton
Jack Ettien	Jr	Bishop Shanahan
Shane Ainscoe	Sr	Spring Ford
Pepe Renteria	So	Mechanicsburg
Kevin Wagner	Sr	DT West
Zach Smith	Sr	Spring Ford
Jonathan McGrory	Sr	Bishop Shanahan
Antonio Burkhart	So	Bethel Park

Now, obviously some of the guys near the back of my predictions have a better chance of making up ground. If I predict you 10^th and you win the state championship, that’s still only 9 points despite what was likely a solid upset victory. So I decided to rank the increases on a % basis to see what happened as well. Here’s the top 12 performers ranked by percent difference (actual – projected / projected).

Noah Demis	So	North Penn
Jake Robinson	Sr	Conestoga
Christian McComb	So	Boyertown
Andrew Malmstrom	Sr	Owen J Roberts
Dan McGoey	So	North Allegheny
Seth Ketler	Jr	Seneca Valley
Czar Tarr	Sr	Chartiers Valley
Chayce Macknair	Jr	Mifflin County
Paul Ghantous	Jr	LaSalle
Matt Bodon	Sr	Stroudsburg
Shane Ainscoe	Sr	Spring Ford
Sean Guydish	Sr	Easton

You can see that the second list allows some of our medal winners to get a little extra credit for their results, even if I had them in the mix to be top 50 guys. In the team category, my excel sheet said that, based on my rankings LaSalle and CRN would be the top 2 teams with 139 and 145 points respectively. Not terrible, right? Well, at least those weren’t.

The model had Spring Ford slotted for 11^th and Bishop Shanahan slotted for 15^th! So those two schools really stepped it up. It’s probably not surprising considering they each had two runners in my top 12 list. Mechanicsburg also deserves a shout out as they were projected at #14 in the scoring and ended up in the top 10.

So congrats to all these performers! Hopefully, this list highlights a few guys who aren’t typically in my recaps or featured prominently on the blog and gives them a chance to appreciate their performance at the state championship. My opinion is obviously just one (not that smart) guys opinion, but, hey, proving the doubters wrong is proving the doubters wrong. I’m always happy to smugly rub the doubters nose in it.

Great work #derailingthetrain for those who posted awesome results this season. For those who I ended up being reasonably correct about, don’t worry. There’s always track season.

I’ll be back a little closer to regional season to give my PA based national predictions. Until then, stay classy and feel free to use this blog for discussion purposes. I’ll still moderate the comments and try and keep things as active as possible.

State Championship Recaps: AAA Boys

At the start of the week, I mentioned in my AA team preview that I was looking for some poetry. It turns out, I was looking in the wrong place. The story of the AAA state championship didn’t start in November. It didn’t start in September. Heck, it didn’t even start in 2017. Way back in 2011, before any of this current crop of state champs was even in high school, the boys from Cardinal O’Hara were looking to become the first boys PCL state champions. There had been close calls prior to that. LaSalle was 2^nd in 2008, the first year the PCL was in the PIAA. Then the Explorers were 3^rd in 2009, before O’Hara took on the bronze medal position in 2010.

Although O’Hara wasn’t overwhelming favorites heading in to the 2011 XC season, they really started to click as the year progressed. By the time states rolled around, they were clear favorites for gold. Meanwhile, the boys from North Penn had struggled during the regular season. Although there were big preseason expectations, there first few results were relatively unimpressive and, unsurprisingly, they finished 3^rd at the District One Championships. But North Penn had championship pedigree. They had won back to back state titles in 2007 and 2008 and, at the time, they and Henderson were the clear #1 programs in the district for that half decade strength.

So a great District One program with potential coming off a disappointing district loss against a PCL power looking to get the historic conference their first official PIAA title. Sounds familiar right? Well, what if I told you that those two schools went on to tie for the state title with a score around 130 points? Now, it’s just getting creepy.

Yes, the 2011 state title ended in a 6^th man tiebreaker, but the PCL team (O’Hara in this case) came out on the wrong side of history. OH ended up in the silver medal position and, after they lost on a tiebreaker again in 2012, it seemed like the PCL may be cursed within the PIAA.

Enter the LaSalle squad of 2017. They picked up big wins throughout the season and established their depth as tops in the state. On state championship Saturday, I think most would agree that they were the favorites, even if not overwhelmingly so. And through the first two miles, it looked like they would run away with the state title. But their 25 point lead started to slip in the race’s final meters. The lurking talents from CR North were coming quickly and LaSalle was trying desperately to hold them off. The curse would not give up easily.

In the end, LaSalle would have to sweat it out until all points were tallied and all were reviewed. For the third time in 7 years, the AAA state title would be decided by the #6 runner. But unlike the first two, the PCL team came out on top. It’s fitting that the team affectionately called “The Army” wins a state title via their 6^th man.

But let’s be honest, they won this on their 6^th and 7^th man. Both Vincent Twomey and Jack Seiberlich displaced North’s #5 man, adding two pivotal points to their rivals’ score. That means if either Seiberlich or Twomey had decided to drop out or completely fold up on the last mile, their team would have ended up second. It’s a testament to the mental strides this team has taken in the last year that they held on and got that gold.

Also a hero on race day was Paul Ghantous. The junior wasn’t projected to be a scorer on race day. He was actually the team’s #7 at districts. But when a member of the top five had a small hiccup, Ghantous stepped up big time. In his best performance of the season, Paul raced to 54^th overall and was the team’s #4 runner.

And I would be silly to not point out that Evan Addison, who was forced to drop out of last year’s state championship, provided the low stick this pack didn’t have in 2015 or 2016 when they were good, but not great in the state landscape. He pulled out some big time redemption with an 11^th place finish at states, the first individual medal for LaSalle at states since 2012 if memory serves.

Now in every dramatic tiebreaker, there are two sides. For Council Rock North, reading about all the little things that went into this championship performance probably doesn’t feel great. But the boys from North have nothing to hang their head about. They defended their state title of a year earlier admirably and, I think many would agree, came closer to pulling off the upset than I expected. They posted 3 medalists and 4 top 50 finishers. After not breaking 17 minutes at a fast course like Lehigh, 5^th man Matt Mullen bounced back to run 17:30 on the Hershey hills and keep his team in the hunt. Mullen will be the top returner for this proud program in 2018 as they go for yet another state qualifying performance in the always crowded District 1.

That loaded District 1 also produced the 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th and 7^th place finishers in the team title race. After I speculated the streak of top 10 D1 teams would finally end, I got slapped in the face by the states deepest district. Bishop Shanahan, who I doubted coming in, posted perhaps the surprise of the day in 5^th place, but Spring Ford and OJR also bettered my predictions for them (and DT West matched). Everybody really came to play.

For Shanahan, the Hoey boys stepped up with strong performances, particularly Jonah who nearly joined his brother on the medal stand. But what really sealed their top 5 finish were the results from the pack. Jack Ettien put down one of his best races of the season at the #4 spot to help bring things home. For Spring Ford, all that waiting for an appearance at states ended up being worth it. The boys proved they belonged with a 4^th place finish behind a medal performance from McKenna. They had the best freshman in the state in Zawislak (50^th) but also got a huge boost from Shane Ainscoe who just barely missed a top 50 spot. He was the difference maker in their fight for the top 5. Zach Smith also brought his “A” game and Milan Sharma continued to be a reliable, consistent performer (helped by JT Clark who was pushing hard as the #6). Ultimately Spring Ford was just 7 points behind DT West, last week’s district champs.

OJR couldn’t quite get past Spring Ford this time around, but the a group of state rookies still stormed into the top 7. Liam Conway led the way as usual, getting his first XC state medal (long overdue), but Andrew Malmstrom has been the star of the past two weeks for this squad. He posted a top 10 finish at districts in perhaps the meets biggest breakthrough performance and then doubled down with a 17^th place finish at states. This kid was a solid 3200 guy last spring and could be sleeper come track season. Conway won’t be a sleeper by any stretch considering he’s the #1 returner indoors and out at the mile. Should be fun to see how he handles track after his best ever XC season. He should have arguably his best ever training contingent as well (you guys got a DMR lurking over there OJR?).

EDIT: Thought I wrote this in the original post, but turns out I never did. The boys from DT West returned just one guy from their 3rd place team in the state a year ago and turned around to be better than they were in 2016. District champs. Third in the state. In the mix for the title. That's also four straight years in the top 4. That's an elite tier right there.

Jumping outside of the D1 bubble, District 3 came through with 3 teams in the top 10. That was a big day, especially when you factor in the district had just one individual medalist. I was really impressed with these schools as I thought this would be a down year for the middle of the state. Hempfield had their best state meet of the last few years, putting it together at Hershey at the perfect time. They’ve had some great peaks in the past, but this one was their best I can remember. Carlisle backed up a year in which they lost three huge pieces with a top 10 finish and Mechanicsburg? Is this an XC powerhouse now? A little known school who lost two huge cogs in Alex Tomasko and Andrew Sulon turned around and got better? Shout out Michael Vigliano on a big season. Plus, major props to Pepe Renteria. He was a critical piece of their state qualifying effort at Big Spring and then ran even better at states. This sophomore may be the hero of the week for the Mechanics. I’m not sure that one will stick.

OK, let’s jump off the team talk and move to individuals. Obviously, the first thing I’ve got to do is bow down to Rusty Kujdych. I’ve doubted him seemingly every step of the way, but the state’s best XC runner has been nothing short of spectacular. After we saw favorites win the first two races of the day, I thought this AAA field would be the one that brought us the upset, but Kujdych was not to be denied. He and Beveridge really fought hard throughout the second half of the race with Hoey hanging around as well. But ultimately, Kujdych dropped the hammer at the end and pulled away for gold. His three year stretch of 19-10-1 is one of the best we’ve seen. Plus, he’s a two time district champ with piles of fast times (including what is now #2 on this new Hershey lay out off a slower pace than last year). I think Kujdych has a chance to do big things at regionals and make a big run at Footlocker. The kid is battle tested and really strong. Hopefully, I don’t jinx him.

Behind Rusty, Noah Beveridge of Butler was the man to emerge from a wild chase to the finish line. Beveridge posts a second straight top 5 finish in the state, joining a fairly elite club in his own right. He’s got some Footlocker experience from last fall which could help him out as he goes for a qualifier spot of his own. But what could be more interesting is the next steps for the group behind him. Dan McGoey, Morgan Cupp and Tyler Wirth all cracked 16 minutes at this race and are set up to be potential sleepers in the Footlocker Regional should they go out. PA had 4 national qualifiers last year (5 if you count Hengst) and really threw down against the region. Maybe we can keep the momentum going with these other stars.

McGoey, just a sophomore, makes it three years in a row we have a sophomore in the top 3 at states. It used to be almost unprecedented, but now it’s getting seemingly old. But let’s not underestimate the meaning of this result. This is an awesome mark and shows McGoey could be something special on the track. The two other sophomores to place top 3? Josh Hoey and Sam Affolder. Those guys ended up anchoring marquee DMRs, running sub 4:12 miles and competing for state golds in the 1600. Also, worth noting, all three of these guys are little brothers of some all-time great PA super stars.

Wirth is an XC rookie and becomes the top junior returner for 2018. Cupp caps off a year in which he was unbelievably consistent at the top of every field he raced. I’d love to see Cupp go for a national qualifying spot. He would be a long shot, but he wouldn’t be afraid to stick his nose in there and see what happens. He’s a natural at XC. Wirth is going to be a lot of fun when we get to track season. He may pass on the regional meets this time out, but would be another intriguing watch.

As some have already pointed out, we’ve got a lot of sophomores in that top 50-60. Not only did we have 3 sophomore medalists, but we also had huge days from Christian McComb (28^th? I did not see that one coming), Christian Fitch and Noah Demis (100^th at the mile, 33^rd at the finish. Kid is legit). Even scanning down the list, I thought state course rookies like Patrick Theveny (62^nd after being 132^nd at the mile) and Antonio Burkhardt of Bethel Park had big days. That class is loaded.

Throwing out a few more shout outs here in the individual section, let’s give credit to some bounce back performances first. Avery Lederer of Penncrest, who struggled over the last stretch at districts, proved he was ready for vengeance in Hershey. The senior finished in 12^th place overall with arguably the biggest week to week turnaround in PA. Lederer faded over the last stretch a year ago, slipping out of medal position. This time he actually gained ground on the leaders every step of the race.

Jared Giannascoli of Lower Dauphin deserves a mention. He was in the dreaded 26^th spot, but the Lower Dauphin senior had his best race of the season to get to that point. Although his regular season brought ups and downs, he came to play at states in the clutch. When he was selected in our fantasy draft, some people didn’t even realize he qualified for states. Well, he not only qualified, he ended up being a strong pick at #26.

Other guys jumped into the top 50 and wrecked my predictions. Sam Gatti was a name that our own Ryan1220 talked up and the senior backed it up with a career best 27^th place finish. Jake Robinson of Conestoga broke into the top 40 with a monster run that really impressed me. Sean Guydish of Easton and Matt Bodon of Stroudsburg ended up being the surprise 1-2 punch for District 11. Guydish especially impressed me as he went from outside his team’s top 2-3 guys, to 2^nd at districts and now 39^th at states. Shout out to the Easton senior.