State Talk

A Individuals
A Team

AA Individuals
AA Team

AAA Individuals
AAA Team

Personally, I like how the AAA team preview came out. I don't feel great about the predictions, but I think it is a good read. It is admittedly on the long side.

XC Fantasy Draft 

Draft teams are:

MCXC
1 Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy
14 Sam Owori, Seneca Valley
15 Avery Lederer, Penncrest
28 Owen Isham, State College
29 Tavonne Davis, Allderdice
42 Andrew Foster, Ephrata
43 Michael Samson, CB West

PA Don’t Play
2 Noah Beveridge, Butler
13 Ethan Koza, CR North
16 Seth Ketler, Seneca Valley
27 Peyton Sewall, DT West
30 Vincent Twomey, LaSalle
41 Riley Williamson, Parkland
44 Sam Early, CR North

Ryan1220
3 Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan
12 Mitchell Etter, State College
17 Brendan O’Toole, North Penn
26 Sam Gatti, Pitts CC
31 Ben Hoyer, Wissahickon
40 Christian Groff, Hempfield
45 Evan Kreider, Cocalico

LXC
4 Morgan Cupp, Mechanicsburg
11 Liam Conway, OJR
18 Jared Giannascoli, Lower Dauphin
25 Jacob McKenna, Spring Ford*
32 Kyle Burke, Abington Heights*
39 Christian Fitch, Fox Chapel*
46 Dan Uhranowsky, Abington Heights**

CPFC
5 Ryan Campbell, CR North*
10 Dan McGoey, North Allegheny*
19 Jack Wisner, Carlisle*
24 Colin Cramer, Southern Lehigh*
33 Tyler Rollins, DT West
38 Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan
47 Calvin Pash, WC Henderson

Views from the 7
6 Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack
9 Spencer Smucker, Henderson
20 Brendan Knepper, Mechanicsburg
23 Brett Brady, Butler
34 Ethan Hermann, Allderdice
37 Czar Tarr, Chartiers Valley
48 Jason Corenlison, Cheltenham

MCXC17
7 Evan Addison, LaSalle
8 Carlos Shultz, Phoenixville
21 Jacob Underwood, Wilson
22 Patrick Anderson, Mt Lebanon
35 Chayce Macknair, Mifflin County
36 Brayden Harris, Mifflin County

49 Xander Ermold, Governor Mifflin

*Autodrafted
** Trade Out

22 comments:

  1. Will State Talk be the lead story through states and the place to post discussion points and predictions?

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    1. I think that's a good idea. I'll keep this post pinned to the top with the exception of during the draft tonight (we will be using a post to draft on tonight so I want to keep that readily available). Otherwise, I will keep this on top so it can gather comments and discussion as you say.

      Note that during the draft comments will go live right away (mainly for the purposes of the draft) so feel free to use that as a chance to discuss topics without waiting for the comment moderation. I'll still be keeping a sharp eye on comments during the draft so we should hopefully not run into any issues.

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  2. For the record, I will be at states so I’ll see ya then

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  3. Predictors are underestimating Butler, they can win this.

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  4. I'll give the advantage to PA Don't Play, then CPFC and Views from the 7.

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  5. Here's a couple of cool things to get you in the state meet spirit:
    A great article PennTrack did about Brenden Miller. Etrain has talked about how he is the only one on his team at times, but this article really shows what it's like for him. Definitely a must read.
    http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/226258-after-building-an-xc-program-by-himself-upper-dauphins-brenden-miller-chases-a-state-title
    Here's a video of the AAA race at WPIALS. It's pretty well done and shows the course, the start, a couple of points in the middle, a great finish line video and the awards. At least watch it for Hays's fall and crawl across the line (4:45). You can tell he gave it everything he had. The girls' race is available on the same channel as well as various other meets from the season if anyone is interested in those.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zU0lm31MqeM

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  6. I’ve got a (hopefully) fun and simple game that everybody can play. Pick a guy not in etrain’s top 50 state predictions that you think will exceed expectations and finish high. Whoever picks the best name by place wins. All three classifications are playable.

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    1. Noah Demis of D1 AAA North Penn

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    2. I've got to go with Sam Gatti (I picked him 26th overall in the draft). He ran a terrific race at WPIALS to finish 5th. He's had some ups and downs this year, but I expect him to have a big race when it counts. I think the WPIAL as a whole might be a little underrated at least in terms of individuals, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

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    3. Ethan Maher from La Salle I think will be gunning for a top 50 spot and will finish right with his teammate Vincent Twomey - DTK

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    4. Kaiser from Dwest.

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  7. I thought D1 predictions were tight but I’ve fiddled with these state projections a bit and I come up with my top 5 teams within 15 or so points. Obviously that means any of them has a very legit chance to win. It really would only take a 5th man 10 seconds faster than projected. That’s some serious parity this year.

    With so many teams so close we’re left with our predictions based on a hunch, which really means a wild guess! Maybe try to factor in teams on the rise, teams with maybe fewer underclassmen, 1-5 spread, pack running, depth, Hershey experience, who’s the most big-race sharp and whatever other reason to justify a pick. Yet it’s still coming down to a guess.

    Like everyone else, I’m thinking LaSalle, DTW and CRN have the best chance to win. LaSalle and DTW are built very similarly 1-7. Heck, their pretty similar 1-20. So they’re both right there.

    Then CRN with the better top 4 and then a drop off but not enough to put them out of the team title threat. XC scoring is weird because in addition to team performance, the strength and size of the field matter. At D1, DTW won pretty comfortably, but CRN actually would have beaten them in dual meet scoring. And at D1 the difference in DTW 5th and CRN’s 5th was 60 points. But D1 has like 50-60 teams, states only has about 20. The difference between the 5th place finishers could be a lot smaller, maybe 30 points or less. On the States stage CRN is pretty much even too.

    But I'm going with DTW for no other reason other than they're on a roll (but so is LaSalle and Butler for that matter so it's just a guess!)

    My top 10 guess:

    10) Carlisle
    9) Shanahan
    8) Spring Ford
    7) Northern Allegheny
    6) Owen J. Roberts
    5) Seneca Valley
    4) Butler
    3) CRN
    2) LaSalle
    1) Downingtown West

    - RJJL

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    1. LaSalle is way out in front of the field. CRN and Dwest are dead even at this meet though.

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  8. If A and AA are in play, then this is easy. Ben Barnes. You have him ranked 5 in A. None of the unranked AAA guys are getting top 5. I think he could get second after Forsythe.
    -Dirt Monster

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    1. don't sleep on my mans brenden miller

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  9. AAA was very exciting!!

    some quick thoughts:
    1) Penns Valley not only wins, but they do it with Colton Sands, a freshman, taking 10th overall in 16:48! He finished as their #1! Perhaps he ends as the fastest freshman of the day? Furthermore, teammate and fellow freshman Brendan Colwell medaled as well with a time of 17:02 (18th overall).

    2) Brendan Miller ran really strong to finish 2nd overall!

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  10. WOW. i had a really scary feeling this would end in a tiebreaker putting CRN in a loss. absolutely incredible championships! Koors and the LaSalle pack ran really tight. Props to them, and Addison for all having really strong races.

    I gotta say, most clutch performance of the day imo is from Sam Earley (or Sam Farley lol) for CRN. coming off an injury and he's been slowly working back into it. He absolutely crushed this race placing 16th overall. truly an amazing performance to even allow this race to go into a tiebreaker. Props to Earley.


    on another note, i'm thinking i am the winner of this years tourney with my top 5 all in the top 20
    2+5+13+16+19 = 56. (but i haven't calculated the other squads

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  11. 5. MCXC
    1+12+23+34+38 = 108

    4. Ryan1220
    7+14+25+27+29 = 102

    3. LCX
    4+8+20+26+30 = 88

    6. CPFC
    3+10+31+36+42 = 122

    2. Views from the 7
    5+9+15+24+32 = 85

    7. MCXC17
    11+18+21+70+80 = 200

    1. forrestCRN
    2+6+13+16+19 = 56

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  12. honestly the D12 curse that O'Hara had of losing on tiebreakers to D1 teams just seems to fitting that it was broken by rivals LaSalle, and the D1 team to be was CRN. my goodness. still sad and flabbergasted

    also huge comeback race from Avery Lederer to place 12 overall after having a rough finish at the district one championships.

    a big medal surprise for me were Chayce Macknair jr out of D6 and another big race for a guy who was injured all season was Jared Giannascoli who placed 26th overall. glad to see him end on a high note, but again we see a senior stuck in the devastating 26th spot.

    incredible day all around!!

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  13. D1 totally dominated. Most of the teams at states probably aren't even top 15 in D1. It seems unfair that they only get 5 teams.

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  14. So many Sophs at the top of that race...2019 season will be something!

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  15. State Team Takeaways

    What a Day

    A: Penns Valley really was the top of the class by far, incredible race by their top freshman Sands, coming in 10th place, he is going to be really good. Penns took the lead early and never looked back. ECC ran a really strong last mile to place second. Montrose and Winchester both had good days, but it was a very competitive year in A unfortunately. Winchester lost some ground on the third mile. Their freshman ran well however. Jenkintown also had a good day, as they were closer with the other teams than it looked, as one of their better runners did not make it up poop out after going out to hard. Their 3 freshman ran well and could be team favorite next year.

    AA: A 2 peat is very hard, but a 3 peat is near impossible, and that showed yesterday, as Wyomissing ended Dallas championship streak. Dallas took it out hard yesterday looking to keep the streak, but they ended up falling off. X Factor Jarden took it out to hard, and got Hersheyd. The D10 champs had a really great day being the best team out front, but the gap between their 4 and 5 ended up being the difference maker as they lost by a couple. Wyomissing was able to complete a somewhat upset of a victory with not one superstar runner with a very impressive 29 second spread, as they continued to move up the whole race. York Suburban had a good day finishing closer to Wyomissing then at the district 3 champs, but their 4 and 5 were not able to make up for the Wyomissing pack. Grove City had a good day and Powell is a stud, but their lack of a 2 put these guys in 5th place. They should be the favorites to win next season though as they return 6 of 7. Also shoutout to Loyalslock for finishing 6th and flying under the radar to a big day.

    AAA: What a race! The La Salle army was able to take down the defending champs front running. Every spot matters in a cross country race, and this was true yesterday as La Salle and CRN tied. Addison has had a great season, and continued that yesterday. Then the La Salle 2-6 came in all really close together. CRN, ran an incredible race. After a solid districts performance, they came out hot today, with Earley running a incredible race, they had great front running, but lost this one on the 5th and 6th man, which was the biggest question going in. D West, after winning districts handily, was not able to repeat that same performance yesterday. Sewell and Rollins both ran good races, but Kaiser was not his usual self today, and that hurt the Whippets. Spring Ford had a good day, constantly moving up in the standings to take an impressive 4th place finish. They were led by McKenna who ran a superb race, and their pack was strong once again. Surprise of the day was probably Bishop Shanahan running a great race to take 5th place. Josh Hoey has really bounced back this season, and their 2-5 were really solid. Seneca Valley ran fine, taking 6th, but a lack of a 5 man hurt them. La Salle will probably be the favorites to repeat and take it all next year.

    Great Days by everyone and congrats to all

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