The Writing Muscles Are Warming Back Up: NXN Preview

The National Qualifying for the NXN meet is a little different than that of Footlocker. Unlike, FLNE where the top 10 are in no matter what, the boys from NXN are dependent on which teams qualifying. Like a typical district meet, the top two teams make nationals and the top five individuals, not on those teams, will also qualify. So we’ve seen guys finish 9^th and qualify (like Sami Aziz of GFS in 2012) but we’ve also seen guys finish 8^th and not go (like Ryan James just last year).

Predicting national qualifiers for the regional meet is further muddled by the fact that the talent level has fluctuated over the years. If you like at early results, you can see that some guys finished in the top 10-15 with slower times than guys in the 40s in other years. There has also been some wacky weather at this meet to further complicate things. Unionville’s Kent Hall (a national qualifier in 2015) may be the craziest example of a national qualifier we have ever had and he got his spot from NXN.

Overall, I actually prefer not to look at history for this event (gasp) and just look at the guys and guestimate their talent. It’s not an exact science, but I try my best. Among the big names at this event we have small school state champions in Isaac Davis (AA) and Tristan Forsythe (A) and also boast AAA state medalists like Liam Conway, Spencer Smucker, Ryan Campbell, Ethan Koza, Sam Earley, Andrew Malmstrom and Peyton Sewall. Also keep an eye on top 5 AA finisher Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock. Team wise it looks like DT West, Henderson, maybe Shanahan, Carlisle and Avon Grove will be in attendance. CRN’s top 4 was on the entries last I checked, but they may not have gone with a full 5.  

Based on results to date, the best guy I’ve seen from this crop is Isaac Davis. He really impressed me at states when he dominated a strong AA field en route to a 20 second victory. How many victories have we seen by 20 seconds over the years? Noah Affolder and Jake Brophy had 15 and 14 second wins (although that was in AAA) and those are two of PA’s best ever. Tony Russell never got into double digits for golds if memory serves. I like Griffin Molino from 2013 is the only guy as he won by 31 seconds in A that season.

Molino, I feel, is an apt comparison. The small school runner rolled through states with one of the day’s fastest times. It was unclear whether that performance would translate to the regional meets, but Molino went to NXN and punched a ticket to nationals in 15:55. That remains the 3^rd fastest performance by a PA runner ever at this regional course. It was also Molino’s junior season.

I think Davis has some similar attributes. He’s been excellent this season, rolling to blazing times and runaway victories. But he also has to carry the burden of needing to prove himself as Davis has not raced much AAA competition head to head this year. Ironically, Davis and Molino both ran out of District 4. Molino’s district time in 2013 was 16:03 and Davis’s was 15:58 (although Molino won by roughly 85 seconds).

Fellow state champ Tristan Forsythe is another man who has the burden of proof on his shoulders. Forsythe has cruised to victories against small school competition seemingly every race he runs and looked incredibly comfortable at states. Clearly he’s got more left in the tank and, unlike Davis, Forsythe posted a big result at this meet last year that should boost his confidence. Tristan was 13^th as a junior and clocked 16:16. That’s about a second off what Wade Endress posted his junior season. A year later, Endress made it to nationals. It’s also faster than what Ryan James ran as a junior. James ended up just a few ticks away from nationals last fall. So Forsythe is in good company.

The AAA field is pretty stacked. I’m interested to see how Liam Conway runs at this meet. He’s got great track ability so it wouldn’t have surprised me if he hung up his XC spikes to focus up on the oval, but I’m excited that he is extending his season a bit more. There will be plenty of time to get in track shape (as he knows from last year) so I like this decision. Conway was a top 10 guy at states and, although he didn’t break into that coveted top 5, we’ve seen more non-top 5 types make it to nationals out of this meet than Footlocker. I already mentioned national qualifier Kent Hall (11^th at states in 2015, 6^th at NXN) and near qualifier Ryan James (8^th at states in 2016, 8^th at NXN), but there are also Reiny Barchet (19^th at states in 2012, 2^nd at NXN) and Brad Miles (7^th in 2008, 6^th at NXN) who both qualified. Aaron Gebhart was outside the top 50 at states his senior year but took 10^th at the regional.

Conway clearly has big talent – his 15:08 from Paul Short put him in a group with almost exclusively national qualifiers. His 9:13 for 3200 was also a big surprise. He’s now run sub 9:15, 4:15 and 1:55 with a sub 15:10. That’s a pretty unique skill set. Plus, he’s got a partner in crime for this training block which, as I mentioned in Footlocker, is huge. I can’t stress enough how much having another person around to help do the extra training can help.

That same argument goes for Spencer Smucker of Henderson and the 3 CRN medalists. These four also have the added advantage of having been to this regional course last year. Ryan Campbell (17^th) is among the top returners and has the extra motivation of losing the state championship in tie breaker to help him grind through the extra weeks. I like Campbell as a darkhorse national qualifier. We’ve seen Keith Capecci, Chris Campbell and Ross Wilson all get there from this program. Maybe Ryan is next in line. I think Smucker is a bit more of a long shot, however, he beat Campbell head to head at states and was just a place behind Conway. The three familiar faces should be able to run together and make a nice push. And ches-mont runners have made noise on this course before. We’ve had 17 PA performers place in the top 10 finishers at NXN. Of that group, 6 were Ches-mont guys including 3 different national qualifiers.

I think Peyton Sewall could be a sleeper for a big day. He had a really nice race at this meet a year ago as one of the team’s key scorers. And that was last year, when Sewall wasn’t even a varsity runner at the state meet. Now he is a state medalist with confidence and fast PRs. I could see Sewall having a day like Alex Knapp from year’s past and sneaking into the top 20.

Does DT West have a shot at qualifying for nationals as a team? I couldn’t really tell you as I don’t know enough about the team’s outside the Keystone. However, I will say that these team has a strong pack, experience on the course, and extra motivation after their state loss. Personally, I really like how teams like DT West and Henderson have made this meet a yearly part of their schedule. I think you need that mentality to extend your season. It’s a grind in the extra November weeks, but if it is what you are used to, that makes it a little easier mentally. I’m rooting for DT West to pull off a big surprise, similar to what we saw from GFS in 2009 or North Allegheny in 2008. It’s a long shot, but, hey, that’s why you run the race.

As I mentioned at the top, I like Quinn Serfass as a sleeper. He has raced with Isaac Davis in the past and sometimes having a familiar face to chase at the front of race not only rhymes, but also helps you gauge your effort and confidence in an unfamiliar place like Bowdoin park. Again, a top 10 finish is a long shot, but I could see Serfass sneaky into the top 20 if things really break right. I’m also excited to watch Andrew Malmstrom on the course. He’s been on fire the last two meets and then added a sub 9:40 for 3200. This magical year for Owen J Roberts will hopefully have a happy ending for Malmstrom and Conway.

Ultimately, I’m not sure where to go with my predictions. Unlike Footlocker, PA doesn’t always get a national qualifier from NXN. So it’s possible we could have no one this year. I think I would slot Davis and Forsythe as the top 2 guys in this field from PA. And I’d probably go with Davis to qualify and Forsythe to be on the bubble somewhere around 9^th or 10^th. I could see Ryan Campbell making nationals as well. Maybe in that same 8-10 range as Ryan James last year.

Best of luck to everyone competing and thanks for extending your schedule to represent PA on the national scene! This weekend, we are all teammates for the first time. That’s pretty exciting.

Let’s see if PA still doesn’t play …