https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SCVbp-wpfFa4CslgQmACB-nW3TxN2U5V/view?usp=drivesdk
2021 AAA 800m
AAA 800m
This is it. Last of the prediction pieces. If you’ve been
reading along in chronological order, you’ll know I’m not necessarily expecting
this, but this race could begin with Gary Martin going for an unprecedented triple
gold. It is what I can only call the Jimmy Springer triple and I’d really,
really like it to happen. But I’m nothing if not consistent, and when it comes
to doubling, I have a hard time picking against fresh legs. Unlike the 1600,
the top of this field will have some guys who have been waiting for a while to
get after it.
Let’s start the conversation with Darius Smallwood. The Pottstown
senior has the state lead this year, having run 1:52. But that’s not what makes
him interesting to me. What makes him interesting is the fact that Smallwood
routinely ran 1:53 or faster in dual meets with no one running within 20 seconds
of him. That’s absolutely wild. At Districts, when he had the best competition
of his season, he was handed his first surprise. The pace went through in only
about 59 seconds and the kickers took over, sending him down to third place in
the final standings. Smallwood will likely make things go here in the final.
Will he change strategy and go out the first 400 like no one can beat him, the
same as he did in his super successful dual meet runs, or will he feel out the
race and let things be a kickers battle once again with extra preparation for
how he might be able to win? That’s my biggest question mark heading into the
last distance event of the weekend.
If things do go tactical, Eric Albright looks like the
guy who will benefit most. He closed in a 54 second final 400 off a 59 second
start which is absolutely insane. The guy clearly has awesome speed, but he has
great strength as well. He’s been at 1:54-1:55 for a while (including 2 years
ago when he was 5th at states as a sophomore), but now he’s moved
into the 1:53s and honestly I think 1:52 or 1:51 is probably in his future. His
first priority will obviously be to win so I’m not expecting him to be the pace
pusher, but if Smallwood changes things up or Martin is feeling good and ready
to be aggressive, then Albright may get pulled to a big PR and a big gold.
Holden Emery is the other interesting name with fresh
legs. The CB East senior was second at the indoor state meet in 2020 and
returns to track states for the first time since then. Emery has hit 1:53.95
this season and also split a 1:53.66 on his team’s 4x800 relay. He’s proven
that he can handle the pressure of the big stage and proven he can produce in a
kicker’s race. If the pace is hot, we will see if he can lower that PR and upgrade
silver to gold.
Outside those three, it’s really going to be a matter of
whose legs are feeling good. Of the top names, Brady Bigger (1:53 this year,
District 6 champion), Tommy Bilderheiser (1:55, District 3 champion off a
kickers pace), Sean Adams (1:54), Thomas Hess (District 4 champion) are all
doubling off the 4x8. So too are Arik Harnish and Ryan Wolfe who could factor
into the front of Section 1 and end up medal contenders when the dust settles
on Heat 2. Bigger has the fastest PR but he will be tripling at this point and
could be on only fumes.
If you want a wildcard pick, you could bet o Jacob
Puhalla of Moon Area. The kid won the WPIAL championship (no small feat) and he’s
produced some fast times on big stages like Baldwin despite the fact that he’s
only a sophomore. His seed time is “only” 1:56.61 and he doesn’t have the 1:53-1:54
type credentials of your usual state title contender, but he’s clearly a gamer
and a winner and that kind of attitude tends to be what is most important at
states. Benjamin Horner and Sam Elsen out of District 1 boast 1:56 seed times
and survived the gauntlet that always is D1 so they are battle tested and ready
to challenge for the medal stand as well.
In the end, I think this race will come down to Albright and
Smallwood (although I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Martin racks up
two golds going into this event, because that would be so much fun). If
Smallwood takes it out aggressively from the start and runs his race, I think
that maximizes his chances to win, but it also sets him up as a target for the
rest of the field. It will take some real guts to run like that, but I’d love
to see him chase a 1:50 or 1:51 kind of time because Albright might be the only
other guy who can get there (barring a Joe Espinal situation – google it
youngsters). However, I think either way this race is run, I’m going to end up picking
Albright to take the victory. I just think he has all the tools and the
experience and that will make him tough to beat.
8. Benjamin Horner 1:55
7. Arik Harnish 1:55
6. Tommy Bildheiser 1:54
5. Jacob Puhalla 1:54
4. Holden Emery 1:53
3. Sean Adams 1:53
2. Darius Smallwood 1:52
1. Eric Albright 1:51
2021 AA 800m
AA 800m
Generally, I’m not a big doubling guy when it comes to
the State Championships. It’s just a very talented meet with great competition so
anything less than your best stuff could leave you vulnerable to get jumped by
somebody with more juice. That said, we’ve seen plenty of successes. In 2019,
Garrett Baublitz won both the 1600 and the 800 over Jonah Powell (who had
excellent performances in both events as well). Domenic Perretta won the 1600
and the 800 three years in a row from 2014 to 2016. Ryan Smathers nearly pulled
off the double in 2014 in windy conditions. Sam Havko hoisted both golds in
2009 (do you hoist medals? Feels like a trophy thing but I’m out of cool ways
to say winning two events, probably a sign that this bit is over). You get the
picture.
Here’s all the guys that can win both this year: Gabe
McConville, Kirk Stewart, Colton Sands, Brendan Colwell, Gabe Nichols, Luke
Seymour. That’s a pretty good list! I’ve talked a lot about these guys resumes
in the 1600 preview (worth a click if you’re into that sort of that, which you probably
are since you are here), but as you will quickly deduce in that post, I think Seymour
has the best chance of joining the double gold posse. Sands is a big talent,
but always struck me as a 32/16 type of guy. Would be super fun to see him
showcase some speed and pop a 1:55 kind of time here, but even a 1:55 may not
be good enough to win. Nichols is another guy who has the talent to drop a big
800 PR and he could perhaps avenge Jonah Powell’s attempt from 2019 and take a
pair of golds home to Grove City in his honor.
But as much as I’m hyping up the double potential, I
expect this race to go to somebody with fresh legs. And the most likely
candidate is Riverside’s Colby Belczyk. Colby dropped a great time of 1:54.94
at the district meet and things opened up for him with without Carson McCoy
(who bested him earlier in the season) contesting the event here at states.
Belczyk was one spot away from the finals in both the 800 and the 1600 at the
2019 state meet so he has some demons to exercise this year. He already
established himself in that direction with a great 2020 indoor states
performance, but I think this outdoor meet is where he will really shine.
The bigger question in the Riverside camp may be can Ty
Fluharty make this a different kind of double? Belczyk’s teammate has very
sneakily been gaining steam and actually enters the state meet as comfortably
the #2 overall seed with his 1:56.41 mark. For him, it may be as simple as
following the leader and pretending its practice. The junior has the talent,
now he just needs to prove he can handle the nerves on the big stage.
The other name we have to talk about here is Dock
Mennonite’s Stanley Saint-Fleur. The senior is the top seed in the open 400 and
split a 47 second quarter to make up nearly an 8 second gap on the anchor of a
4x4 (wow). Plus he’s run 1:53 in the open 800. So why am I not leading off today’s
discussion with the possibility of a 4-8 double for Stanley? Well, honestly,
because I don’t have a long list of examples. I’m not even sure I have any
examples of that double working out. Ryan Thrush, who was a 48 second open 400
guy and a 1:50 800 guy couldn’t pull off that double at states and he was
probably the best bet we’ve had in the last decade. If Stanley can pull it off,
he’ll make some serious history.
But Stanley may have a big impact on the results, even if
he doesn’t make it to the finish line with a blistering time. Saint-Fleur will
run out of the first section at states, but he may not be afraid to set a
blazing pace from the front. If he can’t hold on, he could still end up serving
as a pace maker for a surprise finisher (maybe Waynesburg’s Gabe McConville who
has run 1:57, but had a tough double at WPIALs last week). If Saint-Fleur
contributes to a fast pace, that will put extra pressure on the fast heat and
maybe we see a shocker of a result.
Some other sleepers to mention for this event include
Cole Frazier (our #3 seed who took down Nichols to stop what could have been a
historic triple victory, hard to call him a sleeper but I’m at that point of
the article), Josh Deremer (the District 11 champ who has run 1:59 this spring)
and Holden Cessna (District 5 has quietly started to establish itself as a home
for sleeper picks in the middle distances).
8. Josh Deremer 1:57
7. Gabe Nichols 1:57
6. Gabe McConville 1:57
5. Colton Sands 1:56
4. Ty Fluharty 1:56
3. Cole Frazier 1:55
2. Luke Seymour 1:55
1. Colby Belczyk 1:53
2021 AAA 1600m
AAA 1600m
The 1600 is always a really fun event at states and it usually
comes down to which kid is ready to drop a sub 60 second lap off a reasonable
to fast pace. This year, we’ll see if Gary Martin let’s the race unfold in its
usual fashion. The Archbishop Wood junior has already clocked an extraordinary
4:07 in the 1600 and quite frankly he made it look easy. With bordering times
of 8:49 and 1:53, it’s clear this guy has the chops to not just win the race,
but also attack Drew Magaha’s meet record of 4:07.32 (maybe even Paul
Vandegrift’s state record of 4:03.22). But here’s the problem, Martin doesn’t
only have this race to worry about. He’ll contest the 3200 before this and, if
he feels up to it, he’ll go for the 800 after that. It’s a tremendously
difficult triple against a tremendously talented runner. Who will win?
The good news for Martin is that he won’t be the only one
of his competitors that is sporting tired legs. Top seeds CJ Singleton, Weber
Long, Devon Comber and Graham Thomas all have the 3200 in the morning alongside
Martin (Dylan Throop and Jacob Hess from the “slow” section are in the deuce as
well). Plus Brady Bigger and Calvin Bailey will be racing the 4x8 (possibly
against each other) and contending for state gold. Depending on how Butler
attacks things, CJ Singleton and Skyler Vavro may also feature in the 4x8
(although my speculation is that they will pass on the relay).
So who does that even leave with fresh legs? District 1
Champion Declan Rymer steps into the spotlight. This could be a big moment for
Rymer. The kid has been a monster this year with times of 9:04 and 4:10 in the
long distance events, but he’s been overshadowed not just by Gary Martin’s
terrific season, but also by his teammate Aidan Barnhill’s record setting. In a
normal year, Rymer would be the favorite for either of his main distance
events, this season he feels almost like a “de-facto” contender because
everyone else is doubling, but I can assure he’s more than qualified. He’s got
the strength and he proved at districts that a sub 60 last lap is within his
wheelhouse. This guy is ready to go.
Skyler Vavro is another really interesting story. The
Butler standout admitted he had some disappointments during the fall, but he’s
been back with a vengeance in the spring. He’s got a great training partner in
Singleton and he had a major breakthrough at WPIALs with a 4:13.98 gold medal
performance. This kind of feels like it could be an Isaac Kole-esque moment
where Vavro caps off a career in the shadow of other big names (like Singleton
and his brother Sage) with a gold medal in the 1600. And yes, you are all
probably too young to remember Isaac Kole so you’ll have to google that
reference (there’s probably an article or two that mentions him on this site).
I always put emphasis on being fresh, but that’s not the
be all and end all. Plenty of guys have won this event with tired legs. Brady
Bigger is hoping to repeat the feat of State College alumn Alex Milligan, who
surprised almost everybody (not Sean Collins) with a 4:10 time to knock off
Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor after anchoring his 4x8 to a gold in 2016. Could
Bigger do the same thing? He’s actually runner faster in the open 8 than
Milligan, put up a better XC result (I mean, he won states), a better 3200
result and at the very least a similar 1600 PR prior to states. But Milligan
could really double. He proved it at the 2015 state meet and then doubled down
in 2016. Bigger didn’t have that 2020 state meet to prove himself, but he did
have the district meet where he won the 16 and the 8 (over a couple super
talented teammates) so he’s clearly not a slouch.
Devon Comber is one of the contenders for the 3200 title,
but he gave Rymer a heck of a fight on the double last week at districts in the
16. Maybe he can bottle that again in Shippensburg, especially if he gets beat
out for gold in the 32. Same can be said for CJ Singleton who has run 4:11 this
year and also has 1:55 speed (but could theoretically be on his third race of
the day). Or Weber Long who closed a 4:14 race in 56 seconds the morning after
his 3200 victory (still having a hard time getting over this). But just to reiterate,
we have Gary Martin in this field. The kid who ran 9:10-4:12-1:53 in a 48 hour
stretch without any competition and probably was feeling good enough to do more.
Maybe I should just not over think it? Eh, that’s not what etrain does.
As always, there’s lots of talent ready to scoop up a
medal in the middle of this field. Again, I’m not a big fan of the doubling
guys so I’m not giving them too much attention, but Trey Gannon has been lights
out for Lower Merion this year, Timothy Roden is just a sophomore, but he has a
ton of state experience, Mike Formica of Knoch has been running excellent times
since indoors, Caden Leen is multi-talented with some real speed and somebody
from the heat 1 group (maybe Maxwell or as a longshot perhaps Thrush) is going
to surprise, pop a big time and steal a medal from the fast heat. That just
feels how it will go, especially in a race where the 1600 where things
inevitably tend to get tactical (although again, Gary Martin is the exception
to seemingly every rule).
Ultimately, as I often do, I am picking with my heart and
not necessarily with my brain. Sometimes that pays off (see Dorenkamp, Kole, Brehm)
and other times it does not (see basically every other prediction I’ve made
ever).
8. Gavin Maxwell 4:17
7. Caiden Leen 4:17
6. Brady Bigger 4:15
5. Trey Gannon 4:14
4. Mike Formica 4:14
3. Declan Rymer 4:12
2. Gary Martin 4:11
1. Skyler Vavro 4:11
2021 AA 1600m
AA 1600m
Of all 8 of the races I’m writing about today, this one
may be the most interesting to me. On the surface, you’ve got Colton Sands who
is currently the reigning Cross Country (A), 3200m (AA) and 3,000m (everybody)
State Champion. But we haven’t seen Sands much this spring and I wasn’t even
sure if he was healthy before he and teammate Brendan Colwell popped at
districts, finished 1-2 in the 1600 and the 800 and announced they were still
really, really good at running. These guys inserted themselves in the
discussion for the state title, but have they had enough seasoning to actually
win this race over some proven speedsters?
A number of guys in this field have already proven 4:20
this season including Gabe McConville and Carson McCoy (the only two in this
field to do it at districts) as well as Gabe Nichols, Luke Miller and Luke
Seymour. Nichols had a dynamic district meet and has run the equivalent of 4:14
for 1600m already this spring. You can make a strong argument he should be your
title favorite. Luke Miller has run 9:06 for 3200 which is far and away the
best AA time this spring, but he does have the 3200 to run ahead of this state
final. Although he’s clocked a 4:16, it’s going to be tough to repeat that kind
of time with tired legs, especially if he’s already got a gold to celebrate
from earlier in the morning. Seymour operates more from the other side of the
coin. He came up as an 800 guy, starting from the time he was a freshman, and
he actually finished 6th in that event at 2019 states. Now he’s grown
up a bit, logged some extra miles and lowered his 1600 best to 4:18.01. But he’s
still got that wicked 800 speed if he needs it.
Unlike a lot of the other races, there’s real talent in
the “slow” section of this event. Most notably, Ian Zimmerman ended up there
after an easy win at the District 5 championships. Zimmerman was 4th
at states in 2019 in the 1600 and has low 4:20s ability. For company, he has
Zack Bucker (has run 4:26 in 2021, but will likely be doubling off the 4x8) and
Port Halabar (also likely doubling) along with sleepers Thomas Smigo, Anthony
Gargani and Joe Wolfe. I have to think Zimmerman will get after it on race day
and make a push for a top finish and if the second section gets tactical at
all, than Zimmerman could steal one of the marquee medals (and pull some of his
heat mates to fast times alongside him).
I haven’t given much time to the District 7 guys, but
they have 5 of the guys in the fast heat and the top 3 overall seeds, so maybe
I should. Kirk Stewart has been piecing together strong races for years at
South Park and he’s now a 4:21 and a 1:58 guy. He has state championship
experience as well, contesting the 1600 in 2019. Carson McCoy is only a junior,
but the kid has been putting on a clinic in 2021. You can make an argument he
would have been the favorite in the 800 had he chosen that even considering he’s
already posted a 1:54 time this spring. But he’s taken a liking to the 1600 and
a 4:18 mark puts him in contention for gold in this event. His 800 wheels may
take him over the top. Then of course you have Gabe McConville who beat all
those guys at districts. He’s run 1:57 and 9:44 to couple around his signature
distance and he’s already proven he can win major races against big
competition. It’s going to be hard to bet against any of these three on race
day.
Lots of sleepers in this event. I touched on some of the
slow heat guys, but also watch for Mitchell Brett of Kutztown, Toby Cree of
Central Cambria (if he has enough left after the 4x8) and Sean Aiken of Eden
Christian (only a sophomore, but has some real talent as proven during XC).
There’s certainly plenty of 800 speed in this event (it
feels like half the field is qualified in that event as well), but I think
there is enough aggressive runners to help keep this thing fast enough that
Zimmerman can’t steal it. The biggest question I have is whether Sands (and
Colwell) have enough fitness right now to contend for gold, or if they won’t be
able to hang when the real kicking starts. There’s a lot of talent on that
Penns Valley roster, it’s just hard to know where the health is. I hate to pick
against talent, but I really like the way Luke Seymour has been running. The guys
out west are absolutely terrific, but I think Seymour comes up clutch and
topples the TSTCA crew to steal a state gold.
8. Mitchell Brett 4:24
7. Ian Zimmerman 4:22
6. Kirk Stewart 4:21
5. Brendan Colwell 4:20
4. Gabe McConville 4:18
3. Carson McCoy 4:17
3. Gave Nichols 4:17
2. Colton Sands 4:16
1. Luke Seymour 4:15
2021 AA 4x800m
AA 4x800m
I wish I could say I had read on this one. I mean, beyond
the obvious anyway. Central Cambria enters the meet with an 8:01 mark from
districts. Only Hughesville in District 4 joined Cambria under 8:10 and only 6
teams hit the SQS last week. So I guess it’s easy, pick Central Cambria, right?
Beyond the 8:01, there’s a lot to like on the Cambria
roster. This squad was 9th at states in 2019, just off the podium.
That’s not something that a team forgets quickly and I expect they will be out
for blood at this year’s championships. Nobody sub 2 in the open this season,
but Toby Cree has run 4:25 and is a lights out XC runner. It’s a well-balanced,
deep team with a guy who can be a star in the right moment.
It seems like a straightforward pick, but that’s never
how states plays out so let’s dig in on some other contenders. For starters,
you’ve got Hughesville (2nd fastest time of the week) whose big dog
Hunter Foust dropped the 3200 so he could be fresh for this relay, you know
that means they think they’ve got the pieces to make a run. There’s also
Fairview who has Buckner and Grechanyy on the roster, but Buckner has a 1600 to
consider later in the day and Grechanyy will be doubling off a 3200 where he
may spend a lot of time in the lead pack. That’s a tough double for him and could
hurt Fairview’s chances of making a run. Maybe their District 10 rivals, Grove
City, will make a push? They have Gabe Nichols ready and waiting on their
roster, but the senior may get the chance to focus on the open events after a
super busy district meet where he ran on the 4x8 as well as the 32, 16 and open
8. My guess is he goes for the 16 victory with fresh legs which probably knocks
Grove City out of title contention.
The other teams to hit the SQS at districts were Saint Joseph’s
Catholic of District 6 and South Williamsport of District 4. Saint Joseph’s has
four guys who have proven themselves in open events, led by Jonah Clark who
clocked a 2 flat at districts and XC standout Josh Hershbine. District 4 has a
history of producing top tier teams in the 4x8 (they accounted for 5 of the 12
finalists in last year’s state championships) and South Williamsport could add
to that depth this year with sub 2 man Quaid Molino and individual state
qualifier Port Habalar. They also have a 51 second 400m runner who, if he can
find the endurance, could be a real game changer as this team seeks out the
gold. I like their sleeper potential.
You can never count out Wyomissing, the defending state
champions from 2019 who always find a way to contend for state gold. They didn’t
stagger at their district meet, but they got the job done with a decisive win.
They should get a boost in front of the home crowd this weekend. I’d also keep
an eye on district champs New Hope Solesbury and Riverview.
I’m going with a pretty chalky set of picks here so try
not to judge me too much. I like Central Cambria as a fresh, focused squad with
their eggs in the right basket. That said, I don’t expect the gap to be as wide
as those seed cards might otherwise indicate.
8. Mid Valley 8:14
7. New Hope-Solebury 8:14
6. Fairview 8:11
5. Wyomissing 8:10
4. Saint Joseph’s 8:07
3. Hughesville 8:05
2. South Williamsport 8:02
1. Central Cambria 7:58
2021 AAA 4x800m
AAA 4x800m
Central Bucks West and State College. The teams have
combined to win five of the last six AAA state championships. CB West is
currently on a three year winning streak as they won the last three contested
state championships dating back to 2017 when they edged out , who else, but State
College 7:40 to 7:41 to win gold. At 2020’s indoor state championships, State College
won the fast heat and the state title in 7:52. CB West won the slower section and
grabbed a set of medals. It seems like these two teams have been circling each
other for years and 2021 may bring us another epic match-up.
In my opinion, State College enters this one with the
clear favorite status. They won their district meet uncontested and still ran
the fastest time of the week. They had three individual state qualifiers in the
800. They are the defending indoor state champions and they have the reigning
Cross Country state champion in Brady Bigger. It feels like this team can get
to low 7:40s if they have the right competition and that’s really hard to beat
most seasons.
The three time defending champions from CB West don’t boast
the same individual times as the Little Lions, but the boys I like to call the
Yellow Jackets (I think they are technically the Bucks which is even better and
I’m upset I never thought of that) do have a 1:54 man in Carter Fitzgerald (who
has some great quarter speed to pair with his 800 speed), a 1:58 from Conor
Gross and 1:59/4:24 from Eric Mass. Plus, they’ve got a legacy to protect out
in Shippensburg. And they went all in on the relays which could play to their
benefit. West was really tested at the District Championships, Haverford gave
them some real push early and North Penn and the familiar jersey of Pennridge
were skulking as well. It will be interesting to see if that proves to be a
good test that makes the Yellow Jackets battle-tested for states or if it is a
sign that they can be toppled.
But enough about these two teams. I can hear you yelling
from your computer chair (eh, who am I kidding, you’re reading this on a cell
phone while you’re sitting on the toilet). It’s taken me way to long to mention
the boys from Lewisburg. That’s at least partially because I’m so used to them
being a AA team, I was already handing them the trophy for that state
championship and I didn’t even realize they had been bumped up a classification
(looks like their girls team is still AA ironically which is super weird given
the schedule changes). But let’s be honest here, Lewisburg is a threat to win
the AAA state title without a doubt. They went toe to toe with State College
already this year and just barely were edged out. They just soloed 7:51 which
just missed SC for top time of the week.
Real ones know (that’s a thing kids say right?) that they’ve
got Thomas Hess, who just dropped a 1:56 to win districts, Calvin Bailey, who
just popped off a 4:19 to win districts and Gianluca Perrone, who posted a
1:57. James Koconis has run under 2 minutes as well. The relay is so good that
Elijah Adams (ran 2 flat in the open at districts) and Jacob Hess (sub
9:20/4:21 double at districts) don’t even to be included on the squad (I would
have been intrigued to see what Jacob could have done on a relay carry though).
Most of these fast individual times came recently (like two days ago recently),
but that’s a sign they are clicking at the right time. I really like this team
a lot and I think they are experienced enough at this stage that they can handle
the pressure. After all, they’ve won two straight XC team titles.
Alright, this post is tracking to be well over 1,000
words so I hope you like reading because I still haven’t talked about a few
teams that I think could challenge for the win. I’ll try and speed through
this. Butler is an interesting team. They’ve got two absolute super stars in CJ
Singleton and Skyler Vavro so right there they have the potential to be low 7:50s
high 7:40s. That said, Singleton will have a 3200 in his legs and both guys are
among the top seeds in the open 16. Even if Butler is chasing a team title (and
I can never keep track of who is or isn’t chasing that thing), it still may be
optimal to ditch the 4x8, let some other guys get the experience and hope for
some magic. The team pulled down a medal a few years back without Noah Beveridge
(my goodness was that three years ago now?) so they’ve proven they can be deep.
Cedar Crest, North Penn and Pennridge are the teams that
not only have a lot of talent, but have a lot of pedigree as well. Cedar Crest
knocked off CB West in 2010 to win the state championship and is an annual
medal threat, picking up hardware at the 2019 outdoor meet and 2020 indoor meet.
Bildheiser is a monster and I think he can hang with anybody on anchor. Ryan
Wolfe will need to be their x-factor. And North Penn has won the outdoor state
title 9 different times (their due at this point, haven’t won since 2008). Both
of those teams seem like good bets for the medal stand, but Pennridge is my
real wildcard. This team always finds a way to come on strong at the exact
right moment. Most notably for me was their 2015 state finish where, after
graduating Joey Logue (a 1:51 guy and an all-time great half-miler), the school
busted out an incredible 7:40 runner-up finish with three underclassmen. Even
in 2019, Pennridge laid relatively low at districts and then nearly stole the
state title. If it wasn’t for an absolutely monster anchor from Blake Ewaskey (I
had him at about 1:50), Pennridge might have taken the gold (shout out to Ethan
Zeh as well who carried Radnor ahead of Pennridge for Silver). Reice has been strong
this year and Lera-Lozano is a really nice piece who I could see having a
breakthrough at the 800 (has shown a lot of ability at the longer stuff, but
Pennridge knows how to coach up that speed).
Oh man, still so many good teams. Hempfield won Lebanon
Lancaster Leagues in the 4x8 (over Cedar Crest) and although they were probably
hoping for more at districts, I think they can reset and refocus this weekend.
I expect a big bounce back. Lampeter Strong is another fun district three team.
Arik Harnish is their best guy and he runs second leg which I always find
incredibly fun. Those kind of strategies can really pay dividends at states.
Plus they’ve got a freshman Colin Whitaker who runs like he’s a senior. Big
talent (12th at states in XC). Haverford was really good at the
District 1 meet. They didn’t quite close it out, but the pieces are all there
for a run into the top 4, especially since this appears to be each of their
runners only event of the day. And I can’t leave out Twin Valley who has an explosive
talent in Noah Taylor who can do everything from run 1:55 to 9:24.
In the “slow” heat, it feels likely that someone will
produce a medal. Even though the fast heat is stacked, history says that the
slow heat winner generally (not always) finds a way onto the podium. And by
history, I mean indoor states because this sort of thing has never happened
before outdoors. Your best et for that would probably be Seneca Valley (1:57
guy plus they may throw Noah Peterson on the relay who is a long distance guy,
but a talented guy and sometimes that’s all that matters), North Allegheny
(speaking of talented guys, they are the reigning XC state champs), or LaSalle
(has an armada every year, it’s just a matter of how they will choose to deploy
it). Pittsburgh Central Catholic is really good as well, I just didn’t have a
fun parenthetical expression for them so they got the short end of the stick.
Ultimately, I think this is State College’s race to lose.
Seeing their top three guys at districts was really impressive and I’m not
ready to pull the trigger on an ultimate David vs Goliath upset pick (based on
school size at least) in Lewisburg. So I’ll lean on the 2020 indoor state
champions and the XC state champion and predict they take care of business to
bring the state golds back to Happy Valley and end the Yellow Jackets win
streak.
8. Haverford 7:53
7. Hempfield 7:51
6. North Penn 7:50
5. Cedar Crest 7:48
4. CB West 7:47
3. Pennridge 7:46
2. Lewisburg 7:44
1. State College 7:42
2021 AAA 3200m
AAA 3200m
The biggest story of this weekend, heck this season, is Archbishop Wood’s Gary Martin. The junior beat a star-studded AA field in Cross Country for his first state title and then spent the winter dropping absurd times before adding his name to the PA record books in the spring. His times of 8:49, 4:07 and 1:53 are all great, but the first two are most notable. If you ignore indoor track performances, Gary is 3rd all-time for Pennsylvania and 4th in the 1600 (behind 3 performances that happened before he was born).
But as impressive as all those times are, Gary is looking
for history at the state meet. He will be attempting the 3200, 1600, 800 triple
which has never been done before in real life (I call it the Jimmy Springer
triple based on a character in my fiction book the Running Diaries). Now this
triple is almost impossible because of the level of doubling required, but this
first step will not exactly be a cake walk.
First off, Martin will have to contend with a couple of other
sub 9 3200 guys in Devon Comber of Horsham and Aidan Barnhill of Downingtown
West. Comber has shown he has incredible finishing speed, closing in sub 60 at
the district meet for the victory over Barnhill (I believe he also ran sub 60
when he ran 8:53 at Henderson). Comber was about 4 seconds back of Martin at
Henderson, but with hotter conditions and now Rob DiDonato to help share the
pace out front, things could pack up a bit more and make this a kicker’s race.
Barnhill has awesome closing speed too and in any other year 8:58 and 4:09 type
times would make him the runaway favorite and talk of the town. He’s no slouch
and, although Martin and Comber have had his number the last few times out, states
could be the day he turns the table.
Historically, the 3200 has been a senior driven event.
Although we’ve seen some really awesome underclassmen (Jake Brophy, Nate Henderson,
Sam Affolder, Dan McGoey), seniors have won the last 6 AAA 3200 titles (the
last junior to win was Ethan Martin in 2013). Something ironic, before Martin,
there were 6 seniors who won in a row after the prior junior victory in 2006.
Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But maybe the trend holds. The junior may be Gary
Martin, but I could also see it being one of two other district champions.
The first is Weber Long of Greencastle Antrim. The junior
won the D3 title in the 3200 (over a really talented performer in Graham
Thomas) and then followed it with a victory in the 1600. Long’s 1600 time was
4:14 and he did it off a 56 second final lap! That’s absolutely blazing. Before
that Long also outkicked State’s College’s all-star 1:53 runner (and reigning
XC state champ) Brady Bigger to win the Mid Penn 1600. Long’s PR is “only” 9:12
(which is an incredible time), but we didn’t see him in the blazing conditions
of Henderson’s Invite. Otherwise, he might have been in the sub 9 club. I
really like Long’s upside as a sleeper.
The other guy I think could surprise is CJ Singleton. Don’t
let the 9:32 seed time fool you. Singleton has already run under 9:10 for 3200
and he’s dropped a 4:11 in the 1600 to boot. The WPIAL championship was more a “taking
care of business” type performance where he grabbed the gold and called it a
day. During the XC season, I was very impressed with the Butler junior and he
actually would have been my pick to win the state championship had a made official
predictions. Ultimately, Singleton didn’t take down gold, but I think he won
his section (again, I can never keep these straight) and how knows, maybe if
everyone was together, he could have surprised for the upset. Do not count this
guy out.
I think these 5 and Graham Thomas of Penn Manor (has run
9:08 this year, runner-up to Weber at Districts, 3rd at XC states)
are the major contenders, but there are obviously a lot of other names who
could contend. J. Henry Lyon not only has one of the best names in the competition,
but he also just dropped a 9:12 in the 3200. He’s a super accomplished XC
runner who seems to show up at the state meet. Lyon is another guy who hasn’t
necessarily seen the competition the Philly area guys have during the regular
season, but when he got the opportunity against Jacob Hess of Lewisburg
(another real big talent), he made the most of it and dropped the second
fastest time of district week. Lyon is technically the top returner from 2019’s
state meet where he was the top sophomore in 14th.
Dylan Throop of General McLane has also run 9:12 this season
(chasing CJ Singleton out west) and Throop proved he could deliver on the big
stage. Throop was the 2019 XC state champion, upsetting Juniata’s all-star
Garrett Baublitz.
I could certainly keep going (Stephen Schousen of JP McCaskey
has run sub 9:20 this year, LaSalle has three guys who qualified as a team at
Districts, including sophomore Drew Brill who was the top 10th
grader at AAA XC states in 12th, freshman Ryan Pajak of Ringgold is
a kid that I have been super impressed with his poise at his age, I mentioned
Hess who is a monster in the strength department), but all of these guys are
awesome, that’s how they ended up at the state championship. Ultimately, this
is a deep race and, if conditions are hot, some big names were falter and some new,
previously unheralded guys will establish themselves as future stars.
All this in mind, I’m very intrigued to see how this race
unfolds. Gary Martin will be racing his first of three races so, in theory, he may
be trying to save something for his later races. However, I don’t think that’s
how Gary operates. He seems like the kind of guy who goes out, sets a brutal
pace and dares the rest of the field to follow. That could hurt him in future
events when he is doubling and tripling, but I think that gives him the best
chance to win the 3200 given the potent kicks of guys like Comber and Long and
Martin’s clearly top tier strength.
That said, I think I’m going upset here. I like the idea of a senior keeping the title in house and I feel this will end up Devon Comber’s gold medal (could be a Ross Wilson type upset from the 2014 state championships for those who remember that far back). I think Comber can hang well enough to the pace and he finds that last gear to get the win at the finish. This could be a bit poetic as well given that Devon just missed the XC state crown, diving a the line to try and get those last seconds that separated him from Brady for the gold medal.
8. Dylan Throop 9:097. J. Henry Lyon 9:09
6. Graham Thomas 9:07
5. CJ Singleton 9:05
4. Aidan Barnhill 9:02
3. Weber Long 9:01
2. Gary Martin 8:58
1. Devon Comber 8:58
2021 AA 3200m
AA 3200m
The AA 3200 will not feature the reigning XC, indoor 3k
and outdoor 3200 state champion, Colton Sands, but that doesn’t mean we will be
missing an accomplished favorite at the top of the line-up. Jenkintown’s Luke
Miller enters this meet having run big PRs during the 2021 season including a
4:16 in the 1600 and a jaw dropping 9:06 in the loaded Henderson 3200. Very few
AA guys enter the post season with a time that quick (only guy I can think of is
Dominic Hockenbury, who won three straight AA 3200 titles from 2014 to 2016). Miller
has won a couple state titles with his team in XC, most notably when he was the
#1 man on the winning roster this past fall and his older brother Jack was
runner-up in this event the last time it was contested in 2019.
Although Miller’s PR is well above his competition, nothing is guaranteed at states – especially in the 3200. A slew of guys will be gunning to play David against Goliath. The most notable name may be Chris Hine, who ran the fastest time of the field at his district championships. The senior from Holy Redeemer was 5th in AA XC states this past fall (behind 4 guys who will compete in AAA on the track) and is hitting his stride at the right time with a 9:35 PR victory at his district meet. Hine’s been a dominant force in District 2, but he hasn’t seen the competition Miller has throughout the last five months. We’ll see if that proves to be inexperience or a sign that he just needed the right push to pop off another big PR.
The other top seeds based on District times are Michael Grechanyy of Fairview in District 10, Logan Strawser of East Juniata (D4), Kevin Jumper of Holy Cross (D2) and Brock Pennington of North East (D10).
Jumper likely played a big role in Hine’s PR at the district meet, as the Holy Cross senior was battling tooth and nail for that district title early last week. Jumper was second in the fall at A XC states (a second straight top 10 finish) and he spent his early years learning under Andrew Healey, an incredibly accomplished distance runner in both XC and track. Jumper definitely has the strength for a grueling final, the question will be more about what his track speed is.
Grechanyy and Pennington of District 10 both should be in contention for a top 3 finish. Neither was the district champion as Gabe Nichols earned that gold (he will compete in the 16 and the 8 at states), but both are plenty accomplished. Both guys medaled at this past year’s XC state meet, with Pennington getting all the way up for 7th overall. Grechanyy has not only run 9:34 and 2:01 this season, but he’s also one of just a handful of runners in this field that actually has experience at states in this event (he was 21st in 2019).
Logan Strawser of East Juniata, is just a sophomore and was something of a out of nowhere (from my perspective anyway) district champion. He knocked off Hunter Foust of Hughesville who has been a big name in this district for the past couple years despite entering the meet with just a 10:16 seed time. Typically there are a few young guys who get on the podium in Shippensburg, but the 3200 is a tough place to hang for non-seniors. Strawser is one of just 2 non-seniors in the top 13 seeds. This kid has a Cinderella story going and I’m excited to see where it goes next.
In terms of sleeper picks, look no further than District 7. There is always a ton of talent in the WPIAL, but it looks like fast times were not in store on either the AA side or the AAA side when it came to the end of the day at that meet. Patrick Malone of Winchester Thurston won the title in 9:53, but don’t forget he’s run 9:36 this year. Most years, the top guy wearing a Winchester Thurston jersey is a threat for at least the podium if not the gold. Malone was 8th at the A XC state meet, but I believe he won his “section” (don’t quote me on that, I never can quite remember how they split it up). Also coming from District 7 are Adam Lauer and Mason Ochs (two other returns from last year’s state meet, the later of which has a sub 16 XC PR) and Lance Nicholls (Malone’s teammate at Winchester Thurston who is also a state qualifier in the 1600).
I’ve also got to mention Thad Smith of Penns Valley (had a fantastic XC state meet this past year and has arguably the best training partners in the state in Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell), Adam McLaughlin of Punxsutawney (this team has put together a nice stretch in XC as well with McLaughlin picking up the charge) and Van May of Bedford (really, really talented XC performer who feels like he is the right race away from popping a great track time). By the way Dan Myers, the District 3 champion, has run 4:27 and has a bit of “home track advantage” given that District 3 just ran here last week.
Ultimately, I think this is Miller’s race to lose. It would be a bit poetic for Luke to take the title back for the family after Jack just missed it at the last state met. But I actually could see Luke’s victory playing out more like another Miller, Brendan Miller, who won the title in 2018. That year, Brendan had a solid advantage in the PR department and ran an aggressive race, but a controlled race and he was able to outlast the field. Undoubtedly, someone behind him will step up and find a big PR, but I could see that being any of a long list of guys. I think I like Malone as the sneaky pick.
8. Van May 9:40
7. Michael Grechanyy 9:37
6. Dan Myers 9:37
5. Brock Pennington 9:36
4. Chris Hine 9:32
3. Kevin Jumper 9:30
2. Patrick Malone 9:28
1. Luke Miller 9:20
2021 State Championship Previews
Event by Event Previews:
AAA 3200mAA 3200m
AA 800m
It’s States week in Pennsylvania and, naturally, that means I’m going to write State Meet Previews. Yes, I’ve only been half paying attention for the last three years, but that won’t stop me from pretending like I know what I’m talking about.
Bravado aside, this year’s state championships are very different than past years. After over a decade’s worth of state predictions, where I carefully developed a formula that led to average results, the 2021 state championship will turn Shippensburg’s typical structure on its head. In a typical year, there would be trials and finals for all events (besides the 32), meaning that the state champion would be determined strictly by head-to-head result. That’s not the case this time around as there will be multi-heat finals and the fastest time gets the gold medal.
This may sound like semantics, but it’s actually a huge change. Just think about the hot weather this past weekend and how that drove some more tactical results in the distance events. The District 3 and District 1 championships in the 800 went out in around 59 seconds and then the boys negative split it. Now, most of the top finishers from the fast heat at those meets still finished at the top of the standings, but at States, those “slow” heats are going to be even more talented and the incentive to just go for it and set a fast pace are arguably much higher. We’re almost guaranteed to see slow heat medalists and we may even see an upset from the slow heat depending on how tactical people are prepared to get (although if Eric Albright can close in 54 off a 59 first lap, it may not matter).
The new schedule also put a lot more emphasis on the district meet results. If you are a team like State College, you could have qualified for states in the 4x8 with only an 8:20 (and in past years, that’s probably closer to what they would have run), but this year they had to run all out to make sure they got a fast enough seed time (didn’t prove to be much of an obstacle for them as they are very good, but still). So maybe the extra hard effort sits in their legs a little more? I actually think this point won’t be that big of a deal, but it’s just another variable to put into the model *pushes glasses up on nose*.
The other big wildcard here is doubling. Back when you had to run trials and finals, coaches and athletes had to be a little more selective about which events to participate in. Some big names in the 32, would scratch the 1600 so that they wouldn’t put the extra prelim race in their legs. But this year, if you’re someone like Devon Comber, you’d think you might as well try the 1600 even if the 3200 is your focus. Maybe Gary Martin will go for the 32-16-8 triple. This year, it’s only 3 races instead of 5. So not only is doubling more like to be attempted, it may also be easier to do.
And lastly, for a data guy like myself, we are working without a prior year state meet. Last time we had outdoor states was 2019 and a lot has changed since that time. We didn’t have an indoor state championship in 2021. Even XC states this past fall was sort of weird because guys like Brady Bigger and CJ Singleton didn’t actually race head-to-head. The fact that these other state meets didn’t happen or happened differently doesn’t really impact the athletes, they know what they are doing at this point, so this is really just a paragraph about me trying to make it seem like my life is very hard and that when my predictions are inevitably very wrong it’s just because of the lack of data *adjusts pocket protector on shirt*.
Despite all of these terrible, crippling obstacles, I will be bravely forging ahead and making state predictions. As soon as the performance list comes out, I’ll start work on the 3200 predictions, but I’d like to see where they officially break up the heats for the 4x8, 16 and 8 before releasing those predictions because technically I think the heat breakout could have an impact on things as noted above.
In the meantime, enjoy the week, stay healthy and, as always,
stay classy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)