District 11 Predictions

AAA

 

Due to some very unfortunate injuries, it looks like the AAA team title will come down to Parkland and Easton. Easton is the favorites here thanks to some killer front running with Colin Abert and Kevin Lapsansky leading the charge. Easton has proven themselves consistently on the big stage by running fantastic races at PTXC and Paul Short (at both meets they beat Parkland fairly soundly). The Gregory duo of Sherman and Grunwald has been a very stead 3-4 punch and Koch has handled the pressure of being #5 pretty well. If they run to their ability, they should win a district title.

 

But you can’t count out Parkland just yet. Easton has one of the best 1-2 punches in the state, but their front running is not quite as valuable in a less top heavy field like the District 11 championships. Parkland has a strong top three in Geiger, Newman and Kyvelos and any of those 3 can be their #1 at the right day. Plus they are deeper than Easton, with strong pieces down past their 7th man. Morgan has been rapidly improving at the 4 spot and Kaleycik and Bergen are the best 5-6 in the district.

 

However, Easton is likely taking 1-2 in this race, a huge advantage. Plus Sherman and Grunwald have shown they are more than capable of hanging tough with Parkland’s pack. That gives Easton solid wiggle room at the 5 spot just in case. The key to a Parkland upset is a big day from their low sticks. They could use a 4-7-8 type split at top 3 if they are going to try and neutralize Easton’s front running.

 

With Freedom expected to be without Lopez or Zeigler at Districts, the door is open for Liberty to grab 3rd place. But don’t sleep on Freedom. Aplaugh has looked very strong in recent meets and Quigley is a stud. That top 2 could potentially still carry them by Liberty. If Zeigler and/or Lopez tries to run through their injuries at Districts, that makes Freedom even more capable of third. I doubt we will see them compete, but if they do toe the line, Freedom could end up with 4 individual state qualifiers. For now, however, this seems to be Liberty’s chance to shine. Fitch is a great leader out front and Masemore and George have proven to be solid pieces behind him.

 

Individually, this is Colin Abert’s gold. I’m thinking, if he doesn’t already have the course record, he will set out to smash it at Districts. Abert has never been a guy worried about “saving it for next time”, so I think he will be trying to make a statement with his win. Behind him, Lapsansky has looked strong enough to get 2nd. I think he is the second best runner in the field, but he may get stuck in the middle of Abert and the chase pack and get caught late if he has expended too much energy running solo. The pack of Quigley, Fitch, Lamm, Slavin, Aplaugh and the Parkland boys should work together very well. It’s going to be a mad dash to the finish to sort out the top 10.

 

Here are my predictions.

 

1       Easton          46

2       Parkland        56

3       Liberty

4       Freedom

 

1       Abert            Easton

2       Lapsansky       Easton

3       Quigley Freedom

4       Fitch           Liberty

5       Lamm            Whitehall

6       Slavin          Pleasant Valley

7       Geiger          Parkland

8       Aplaugh Freedom

9       Newman  Parkland

10      Sherman Easton

11      Kyvelos Parkland

12      Grunwald        Easton

13      Morgan  Parkland

14      Masemore        Liberty

15      Tocket          Bangor

16      Kaleycik        Parkland

17      Ramdeo  Stroudsburg

18      Bergen          Parkland (6)

19      George          Liberty

20      Samuels Pleasant Valley

21      Koch            Easton

22      Sell            Bangor

23      Harris          Pocono Montain

24      Welkie          Pottsville

25      Landenberg      Emmaus

 

AA

I’ve got back and forth on a number of things for District 11 AA. I’m high on the Allentown CC boys to make it through to states, but I have a pretty small sample size to back it up. Jim Thorpe looked really good in their last meet: their top 4 were very impressive. That catapulted them up to the number 1 spot in my team rankings. Plus their front runner, Condloy, came very close to being my pick to win districts over defending champ Kyle Gonoude. Both of these guys are studs and have a good shot at the top 10 for AA states (for the record the top 10 for AA states is a huge toss up right now that I won’t really fully start thinking about until after districts is complete). Joe Espinal from Wilson was one of my early season sleepers and he appears to be rounding into shape these past couple weeks. Heller from Northwestern Lehigh, Li from Moravian Academy and the 2-3 for Jim Thorpe (Bucior and Saxon) are all top 5 threats as well. The sleeper may be Brad Kreider from Allentown. He and his teammates have a little bit more recovery time than the rest of the field because their league meet was on Tuesday rather than Thursday.

 

As I’ve mentioned I see Jim Thorpe taking the title here and Allentown Central Catholic grabbing the other spot to states. I’m a little nervous about Thorpe’s depth at the 5 spot, but their top 4 are much better than their competition. Allentown looked solid against the bigger teams at their league meet and has a nice history at districts. They have a solid pack behind their frontrunner Kreider with Vaughn, Gribb and Miller all threats to do some damage. These two teams seem to be a step above their competition.

 

The race for third may be the most exciting part of the meet (and on the right day any of these teams could break through for a top 2 spot). Saucon Valley had a killer pack their last race where they became Colonial League champs. Bernstein and Kyra led the way out front. If those two can become true front runners and crack the top 10-15 spots, Saucon Valley could be game changers. The team they beat, Notre Dame GP has had some solid success at districts in the past. They were a tad underwhelming at their league meet but Koons and Fogel were state level guys a year ago who I believe will bounce back at Districts and give this team a strong 1-2 punch.

 

But the team that I’m really excited to watch is North Schuykill. These guys are really young: their entire top 7 is all freshmen and sophomores. They had a fantastic league performance led by McCormick, who looks like a state qualifier as an individual. Sokoloski also had a great showing at Leagues. Districts time is a real test for young teams, and these guys may be a year or two away from being real title contenders, however, this youthful group may be the most likely team to pull off the upset. Keep an eye on this squad for the next couple years, they are young and they have talent continuing to come in (I believe they had a killer showing in the middle school race). Maybe the next Brendan Shearn is lurking on this roster.

 

1       Jim Thorpe              79     

2       Allentown CC            91

3       North Schuylkill

4       Notre Dame GP

5       Saucon Valley  

 

1       Gonoude Salisbury

2       Condloy Jim Thorpe

3       Espinal         Wilson

4       Kreider         Allentown CC

5       Bucior          Jim Thorpe

6       Heller          Northwestern Lehigh

7       Saxon           Jim Thorpe

8       Li              Moravian Academy

9       Kemery  Northern Lehigh

10      Vaughn  Allentown CC

11      Koons           Notre Dame GP

12      Blacketter      Lehighton

13      Svetik          Palmerton

14      Gribb           Allentown CC

15      McCormick       North Schuylkill

16      Saxon           Jim Thorpe

17      Eibeck          Penn Argyl

18      Sokoloski       North Schuylkill

19      Fogel           Notre Dame GP

20      Bernstein       Saucon Valley

21      Kyra            Saucon Valley

22      Greenawalt      Blue Mountain

23      Miller          Allentown CC

24      Fisher          Leighton

25      Shaffer         Bethlehem Catholic

 

A

In the single A race there is only 1 team spot to states on the line with a slew of schools looking to chase it down. The defending state champs, Minersville, will have their hands full against up and coming squads Schuylkill Haven and Marian Catholic. Marian Catholic has a stunning 5 freshman in their top 5 with the 6th being a sophomore. Despite their youth, they have some of the best depth in the district which is why they were able to edge out their district rivals at Leagues. Despite the depth, the title will likely swing on the strength of each schools top three runners. For Haven it will be Brannen, Pothering and James. For Minersville it will be Yutko, Dibiase and Rushanan who all ran excellent here a year ago. Marian Catholic will count on their trio of freshman Srinivasan, Pulaski, and Roberts. Mahanoy’s top three is worth mentioning here as well, Bahrey, Striesel and Derr may all end up in the top 10 on race day.

 

Brannen from Haven has asserted himself as a title favorite this season. He’s one of the top returners from a year ago including Yutko (last year’s champ from Minersville) and Bahrey from Mahanoy. Bahrey has a strong training partner in Striesel and both guys will be hoping for individual spots to states. Srinivasan is a stud frosh for Marian Catholic, but he is a bit inexperienced on the big stage.

 

Ultimately, the team and individual race are pretty up in the air. At least five teams have realistic ambitions about qualifying for states, but only one can go. Weatherly is the sleeper squad here. They’ve got a nice pack of guys led by Brett Kelly out front. I’ll be rooting for this team as my girlfriend’s sister helped coach this squad in recent years and would like to see her hard work pay off. I think Haven edges out the defending champs in Minersville and the up and comers of Marian Catholic in a dog fight to the finish. Brannen’s individual championship may be the difference in a tightly contested race. 

 

1       Schuylkill Haven 69

2       Minersville 81

3       Marian Catholic 71

4       Weatherly

5       Mahanoy

 

1       Brannen Schuylkill Haven

2       Bahrey          Mahanoy

3       Srinivasan      Marian Catholic

4       Striesel        Mahanoy

5       Pothering       Schuylkill Haven

6       Yutko           Minersville

7       Pulaski         Marian Catholic

8       Derr            Mahanoy

9       Dibiase         Minersville

10      Kelly           Weatherly

11      Roberts Marian Catholic

12      James           Schuylkill Haven

13      Rushannon       Nativity

14      Rushanan        Minersville

 

 

District 5 Predictions

A

 

Ah, District 5. Most of what I have learned about District 5 in the past two weeks has been used up in the AA District 6 preview (AA D5 runs with AA D6). I’ll spare you the whole, why does District 5 exist thing (they are only A so it’s not too crazy for them to have a district, it just seems superfluous), and just get right down to the work I’m calling predictions. The honest truth of the matter is finding info for this meet was borderline impossible. The District 5 teams have barely competed this year and most of the guys who have were up in the 20 minutes range for 5k. Most of the top returners were MIA. Even if I could find results for their team, it didn’t guarantee the key returners would show up. So I tried my best folks, try not be too upset with me.

 

Meyersdale is the defending champs and they return a lot of key pieces, including a couple guys who have competed this year in Swick, Knotts and Shankle. Their top returner, Hutzell, who was their #1 guy last year as a freshman, wasn’t involved in the teams opening meet. We will see if he comes back strong. The runner ups from a year ago, Southern Fulton, have yet to compete this year but do return a couple strong state qualifiers form a year ago in Prior and Voigt. I suspect it will come down to these teams again this year (only three teams were listed in the team scoring a year ago although many more competed). I’m leaning towards a Meyersdale repeat at this point, but there is room for another team with solid front running to beat them.

 

Individually, the top two from a year ago graduated and the next few have been off the map thus far this season. It’s hard to really pick a favorite but the name to watch is probably my half cousin twice removed David Felix from Johnstown. Not only is there a 2% chance we are related, but he also had a very strong race at the Forrest Hills Invite. He’s one of the few District 5 guys who has put up a strong early season mark. Another name to watch is Glodek from Fannent-Metal who ran a solid time at Big Spring earlier this season. FM may be in AA this year apparently, but if they are still in A keep an eye on this name. Lastly Keller from Chestnut Ridge got off to a solid start this season and should be in the mix for individual qualifying spot.

 

Ultimately, I feel like my predictions for the District 5 Championship are like the 2014 Philadelphia 76ers. Yeah they are probably going to suck, but it doesn’t stop us from taking shots.

 

1       Meyersdale      36

2       South Fulton    43

 

1       Felix           Johnstown Christian

2       Glodek          Fannent-Metal High School

3       Keller          Chestunut Ridge

4       Swick           Meyersdale

5       Prior           South Fulton

6       Knotts          Meyersdale

7       Voigt           South Fulton

8       Shankle Meyersdale

District Previews

My district previews will be coming out starting end of this week/beginning of next week. I'm not aware of all class changes or district changes so if anyone has relevant info feel free to take the time to pass it along now. Injuries and such would be hopefully to know as well.

I'm trying to make these pretty extensive so all info is good info. I'm definitely out of touch on some districts (as you can see my first preview didn't even include the team that probably will win districts) especially the small A and AA ones so feel free to help out however so we can make these previews strong. I'm doing a ton of research but there are limits to that strategy.

Also if you would like to help or be involved in the prediction process let me know.

Hope you are enjoying league week!

You will hear more from me soon!

District 8 Preview

 

District 8 Predictions

In District 8, Carrick has become the class of the league. Taylor Allerdice’s move to the WPAIL opened up the door for Carrick to take over. The defending champs are led by individual defending champ Zack Wierzchowski and his brother Ryan Wierzchowski. Both guys have been pretty solid this year and it should be interesting to see if either can work their way into the top 100 or so, a feat nobody from the District achieved a year ago. Carrick dominated this meet in 2013 scoring 15 points and I see it happening again. Last year they were denied a clean sweep because a member of a team with less than 5 guys squeaked in from Perry. However, this year, thanks to graduation and an improved team, I have Carrick taking the top 5 spots in the meet.

 

Here’s how I see it playing out:

 

1       R. Weirzchowski Carrick

2       Z. Weirzchowski Carrick

3       Walters               Carrick

4       Jester                 Carrick

5       Warnock             Carrick

 

1. Carrick 15

2. Obama Academy

 

Good luck to everybody competing out at District 8!

 

A Little Ranting

I know, I know you’re sick of me ranting. But let me just sneak in another one real quick. Here’s the thing, people may think that I hate the way the state meet is set up because I am so set on a Meet of Champs. That’s actually wrong, I love the way the state meet is set up. It’s a STATE meet, so it should represent all areas of the state and it should represent the different sizes as well. The State meet is a separate meet from the Meet of Champs. I don’t want to replace states, I just want to add another meet to the end of the PA season.

 

I certainly don’t like the three class system and was against it when they put it in, but that was because we didn’t have a meet of champs in place so we could find out who the best guys were. I don’t mind the talent of the state meet being diluted, if eventually we get to see Molino, Hockenbury and Abert all face off.

 

No, I actually really like the state meet the way it is set up. If I was in charge there is very, very little I would change. My only real issue, why do we still have a District 8?

 

There is only one class of District 8 (AAA) and they get 1 team spot and 5 individuals (the minimum amount). There are other districts like this (District 6, District 2 and District 10) and I have no problems with them getting the minimum. Were there probably 10 or so teams in District One better than Wallenpaupack and McDowell last year? Probably. But it’s a state meet and every area deserves fair representation. So District 6, 2 and 10 sent their 7 team runners and 5 individuals to states, competed hard, grabbed a couple medals and were on their merry way.

 

So what separates District 8? For starters, with Allerdice gone they only had 24 guys finish the 5k at districts last year. I can’t say for sure, but I bet that’s the smallest amount of finishers for any district (and that includes the A and AA levels). So exactly half of the 24 finishers would be assured a spot to states. Is that fair? No, probably not. But that’s still not even my biggest issue. Despite having the ability to send 12 total people to states, only 6 runners actually went and competed. The top 5 guys from the District champs, Carrick (although they ran a full 7 at districts) and 1 individual.

 

Which means a total of 6 guys (basically enough for one additional team) that could have been at states just didn’t go. And look I’m sure the schools had a good reason for not sending the kids. I’m not going to pretend I know the whole story on who or why or how we ended up with only 6 out of 12 spots being filled, but we still ended up with 6 empty spots at states. Those spots easily could have been used by Bensalem or Dallastown. I know the kids would have wanted to go and I think it’s a safe assumption the school would have been willing to send them if a spot opened up.

 

And what gets me is there is such an easy solution to this: just combined District 8 with another District (particularly District 7). Now there might be some weird WPIAL rule that I don’t know about that makes this difficult, but it’s not like the PIAA doesn’t pull this kind of thing already. District 5 AA runs with District 6 for a qualifying spot to states. Same goes for District 9 AAA. So would it really be that difficult to make the switch? You can even give the 1 team and 5 individuals that used to belong to District 8 to District 7 (bumping them up from 3 to 4 teams and 15 to 20 individuals).

 

Allerdice made the switch and it didn’t change much. Ean DiSilvio was a medalist in District 8 and clearly a state caliber athlete. He switched to District 7 and still made it back to states and grabbed another medal. Plus, I would argue the extra exposure and competition of District 7 improved his overall ability and recruitability (which is a word I just invented). This year Allerdice has a few other runners who will be in the hunt for states in the WPIAL. It’s not like because they left District 8 their representation at states disappeared.

 

Most of the time you hear arguments about who should and shouldn’t go to states, people are throwing out times and places and all that stuff. I don’t really care about that. If you noticed I didn’t once use anything like time or place in my arguments above. Times change from year to year and talent can pop up anywhere. To me it’s simply about fairness. Why are we giving 12 spots to a district that refuses to send 12 runners? Especially considering there is an easy solution to the problem.

 

Don’t get it twisted, at states I’ll be cheering for the Carrick boys to do well. I’ll be scanning results to see where the Weirzchowski boys finish. I’ll just be missing those 6 other guys I could have been cheering for.

District One Cotinues to Heat Up

We are rapidly approaching district season and things continue to get interesting in district one. After Stoga was upset by LaSalle in my neck of the woods, DT West pulled out what I would at least call an upset over Henderson. Henderson was rapidly gaining the "hey, it's Henderson why can't they win districts again?" Type momentum and DT West made a nice statement with the 2 point victory.

The district is now poised for a potential 6 way battle for the district title if Pennsbury, CRN and CB West continue to improve at Lehigh this weekend.

The big thing for DT West was the big step up performance from the Barton boys, particularly Charlie. That was a very clutch moment for the Senior in his last Chesmont championships. Even a young team needs it's senior leaders. DT had a strong pack with no glaring weakness and Sappey continues to impress as a front runner. They could surprise at districts next weekend.

But Henderson looked strong as well. Yes they had a gap to 5 which will be tricky to navigate at the super large district one meet, but they are continuing to improve their top 4. If they don't make states as a team (a fact I still see as unlikely) they may send 4 individuals to states anyway. I'd go out on a limb and say there has never been a team in the history of district one that has had 4 individuals qualify but not qualify as a team. I can think of a couple 3s, but never 4.

If they get through districts, they will be very dangerous at states because their front running ability is much more valuable.

Looking ahead, here are the meets to look forward as we piece together the final pre district results.

SOL Continental
The boys of CB West can smell the district title. They have a strong pack with an incredible amount of depth. The question is, is their pack fast enough to out last the front running potential of their rivals. Fortna leads a group of Murray, Davies, Mass, Iatorola and more as they try and topple CB East, Horsham and North Penn.

That match up should be exciting as well. I think NP has a seriously underrated top 3. If their 4-5 look strong this weekend, you have to throw them in the state qualifying conversation. Meanwhile CB East was 5th at Pre States, a very impressive performance. They have been quiet since, but they remain one of the few teams to have defeated CBW this year.

Individually, we will watch Brophy and Comber go after it. These two are both guys I think can win district in a week, and Brophy is seeking revenge for last year. Comber still hasn't lost a major invite. Tung, Cooney and Collins will look to show off for North Penn. McMenamin from Souderton is one of the most underrated guys in the district and I think sub 16 is looming before October ends.

Brophy 3:1
Comber 3:1
Field 15:1

SOL National
CRN vs Pennsbury. That's what this race probably comes down to. PB has not been able to topple the North dynasty and CRN usually begins it's rise to power around this time. Both of these squads are currently on my bubble. This battle is huge for district implications.

Individually this race will be fun as well. Webb has a chance to grab his first conference title, but Arita will look to keep it in CRNs house. We can't sleep on Hanna from CRS and his teammate MaGuire will be looking to build momentum to grab one of the coveted state spots. Mays, Shah and Ramirez for Bensalem and Chapman for Neshaminy have similar goals. The Sauer v Griswold match up is another one to keep an eye on, especially as it relates to the team title race.

CRN (-5) v Pennsbury

SOL American
I won't pretend this race will be as fast or as exciting as the other two, but it still features prominent bubble runners. Wissahickon has had brutal luck in recent years with a slew of runners barely missing states (Farrell, Ravetz, Brooks, Marcelis and Marcelis all barely missed). Now Marcelis is back on the bubble again looking to get a big win for momentum. SOL American has sent their champ to states for the last decade and at least 2 runners in almost every season. So which name will emerge to be this years surprise sub 16 like Dan Shalala?

Central League
Here's the chance for Stoga to make a statement. They had a tough loss, but I think they will respond to the adversity well. They face a similar field to what O'Hara dominated a week ago, so we will see if they can put up a low 20s score. Orcutt and Abrahms are among the names looking to break up the sweep.

Over/under 24 points for the winner

PAC
Paul Power's Spring Ford squad will look to grab the league title. Power is a strong favorite in the middle of a killer season and his team is growing up fast around him. They will look to affirm themselves as a top 10 district squad.

Kirshenbaum from Methacton, Conway from Owen J and Montgomery from Perk Valley are among the names looking to break up the party. I'll also be watching Boyertown's Dylan Eddinger to see if he can carry the momentum from last year's 4x8.

It's a fantastic time of year. Let the October madness continue.

League Preview

We already saw some fantastic action at Mid Penns and DELCOs and this week should not fail to deliver either. Here are some meets I'm keeping an eye on as I try to map out the remainder of the state wide play off picture.

10/13 Chesmont
The Chesmont championships are always an exciting time. There are usually a few of the states top 5 or so teams competing and plenty of top individuals. This year's meet should be highlighted by the Henderson v. DT West match up as Henderson tries to hold onto their spot atop the District. With Conestoga faltering a bit this weekend against LaSalle, a dominating performance by either Henderson or West could make them the favorites next week at the District championship. Behind these squads, it will be interesting to see how teams like Great Valley, Rustin, Coatesville, DT East and Avon Grove battle. I'm a bit surprised that Avon Grove hasn't received a bit talk as they have had a pretty strong season, highlighted by Josh Smith and Jake Ilgenfritz, both guys I see as state qualifiers this year. They were 12th at pre states, roughly 20 points behind Great Valley. DT East has looked strong at various meets, including the white race at Paul Short. Overall, the battle for third may end up being more interesting than the battle for first.

Individually, Henry Sappey is the favorite in my eyes after a fantastic start to his season for DT West. West is determined to take the league title this year and a Sappey win would help them out a lot. Knapp, Henderson's front runner, is a strong runner who does his best racing at the end of the season when it counts most. I'm not sure he can outlast Sappey this week, but I do expect him to be in the medals at states. Josh Smith and Eric Diestelow are the top returners from this meet and both have been strong this season, particularly Diestelow who is coming off a 16:02 at Lehigh. Ettien from Coatesville, O'Reilly from DT East, Ellis from GV, Vogt and Carmody from Rustin, Ilgenfritz and the remaining members of Henderson and DT West's top 5 are other individuals who will be in the mix for the top 10. Another name to remember may be Austin Maxwell from Kennent.

Ultimately, I see Sappey winning this race, but Henderson just barely edging out DTWest for the title.

For those of you looking to place some bets in our imaginary money betting pool here are some odds for you:
Sappey 2:1
Knapp 4:1
Diestelow 6:1
Smith 8:1
Field 15:1

Henderson (-3) v DT West

Winning time over/under: 16:24

10/14 Berks 
Twin Valley wasn't at the Mid Penn championship, but they do have a chance to show their stuff against some other top District 3 teams at Berks. A strong showing from their key 5 would be huge going into districts. Kyle Shinn and Jack DiContino from Wyomissing will be among the names competing for a title along with Coakley from Twin Valley, Mills from Governor Mifflin and possibly Jacob Connors from Wilson.

10/14 Lancaster-Lebanon 
This meet should round out the AAA team talks nicely with Hempfield and McCaskey doing battle. Cedar Crest also should be interesting to watch and AA Manheim Central will look to have continued success this season. Anville Cleona is looking to gain some confidence going into states as right now they are probably a bubble team behind York Suburban, Manheim Central and Palmyra. McCaskey had a really strong top 3 the last time we saw them race, but had a bit of a trouble at the 5 spot which kept them out of the podium spots at Carlisle. They are a serious sleeper team going into districts and have the potential to make a big time statement. Henderson, the soph from McCaskey, with be one of the front runners in the race. Brian Delaney from Manheim Township is a name to watch, he is a darkhorse pick to win the District championships in a week +.

10/14 YIAA 
Aaron Gebhardt will look to grab the title and gain some positive momentum going into Districts and states. He will mainly be battling Brady Wilt and Donovan Mears of York Suburban. YS is clearly a very good team and the favorites for AA state champs, but Scranton Prep out of District 2 is lurking. Another strong showing from the 3, 4, 5 of York Sub would be a great boost to start of championship season. I'll also be watching Gatchell from Red Lion as a sleeper.

10/15 Ed Narkiewicz All- League Meet 
Dom Hockenbury goes to work once again. He's the favorite for AA individual gold this season. The match up that I want to watch, however, is Dallas taking on Tunkhannock. Scranton Prep is the favorite to come out of District 2 this year, but there are two spots to be had in the AA race. It will come down to the youngsters of Dallas and the defending state champs in Tunkhannock. This meet ought to give us a good idea who the favorite is going into districts.

10/16 Tri States (Lebo, NA, Mars, SV, Grove City, Fox Chapel, Pitts CC, North Hills, Baldwin, Altoona, West Allegheny, Winchester, Sewickley, Avonworth, Knoch, South Fayette
Tri States will be crazy this year. It's a packed race with essentially all the District 7 teams from all the classes plus Grove City and Altoona jumping in. This is is such a large meet that front runners really mean a lot in overall team scoring, especially for the small schools. However, even an average #5 can end up completely buried in a field of this caliber. So I will be interested to see how North Hills and Fox Chapel rise to the occasion and if teams with a bit better of a pack like Baldwin and Pitts CC can get involved (non Canon Mac at this meet according to last year's results).

Sewickley, Avonworth and Winchester Thruston should all be involved in the big dance. WT should benefit from 2 or 3 very strong front runners while Sewickley has Mackey leading the way as a low stick. Avonworth doesn't have the same front running power, but they do have a strong pack. We won't be able to read too much into how these three teams finish as the lay out of districts will be considerably different, but it certainly will help develop a nice picture.

The AA race in District 7 should also be hotly contested. Mars, Knoch, West Allegheny, South Fayette and more should all be involved in the big dance this weekend and each will have the opportunity to show they are a top 4 team. Plus we have District 7 Grove City, who has quietly developed into a serious state title contender. Benka and Budnik have always been strong, but they are developing a really quality pack of guys behind them. The AA state title race may be a bit more wide open after this weekend finishes.

The highlight of the weekend should be round 1 of Mt. Lebo vs. NA. Now that the meet is in Cal, I think Lebo has a course advantage. They also have a really strong pack. But the pressure will be on Baun and Gunzenhauser to keep things close out front behind Seel, McGoey and Wharrey. Now keep in mind, NA didn't run their best 7 last weekend and they didn't run their full varsity at this meet last year either. So there is a chance we don't even see this much hyped match up surface. If NA puts their A team out there, I think they are strong enough to outlast Lebo, but things are going to be tight.

Individually, things should be very exciting if everyone brings their A team. Benka, Budnik and Faust bring in some serious fire power from outside the district. The rest is basically a district preview with the aforementioned NA and Lebo guys joining the likes of Jeff VanKooten, Tanner Quiggle, Mike Kolor, Griffin Mackey, Will Loevner, Landin Delaney and more. Jacob Heinauer from North Hills is a legitimate threat to win the meet, while Elias Graca is always dangerous after his 15:44 early season statement at RWB. The big sleeper make be Jake Susalla from Plum. This race is potentially incredibly wide open, with an exciting sprint to the finish looming.

For those who are interesting in the fantasy betting:
NA (-12) v Lebo

VanKooten 3:1
McGoey 4:1
Benka 5:1
Heinauer 7:1
Wharrey 8:1
Susalla 10:1
Graca 12:1
Mackey 12:1
Faust 15:1
Field 20:1

Top A District 7 Team
Sewickley 3:1
Avonworth 8:1
Winchester Thurston 8:1

Later in the week, I will preview some of the big D1 conference meets, but wanted to get these ones out there early while I had time so that people could discuss their thoughts with an adequate amount of time before the races.

10/17 SOL American
10/17 SOL National
10/17 SOL Continental

Weekend Updates

Eastern States Results @ Manhattan

13 Ritz 12:31 GA

16 Marston 12:33 Conestoga 

58 Grant 13:17 LaSalle

71 Goebel 13:24 LaSalle

72 Nelson 13:25 Conestoga

74 Mitchell 13:25 LaSalle

80 Paul 13:27 LaSalle 

85 Princavalle 13:29 LaSalle 

91 Murray 13:34 Conestoga

105 Iffert 13:42 Conestoga 

110 Boccabella 13:44 Conestoga

119 Driscoll 13:49 LaSalle

124 Cooper 13:54 Conestoga

132 Price 14:03 LaSalle

139 McCarthy 14:11 Conestoga 

Keep in mind that's a 12 second spread for LaSalle. Mindblowing tightness. And it's another different front runner for them. Cruiskhank not in the line up for Stoga which could make a small difference. Anyway you spin it this was a nice statement by LaSalle.

LaSalle 368 for 13th

Conestoga 394 for 17th

Time to start showing LaSalle some love perhaps? And nobody even mentions Ritz but he comes through. Could he be the independent league champ in a couple weeks?

Mid Penn Updated @ 5:24
I haven't seen complete results but some tweet action says that Seiger 16:02, Green 16:05, Brehm 16:08 for the top 3. CV wins, then State College, Hershey and Lower Dauphin! Quite the interesting results it seems, we will have to see the full lay out. Districts is going to be very, very tight.

Kev James apparently ran a meet record at DELCOs down around 15:20, also according to the twitisphere.

Meanwhile at Tennent, I can't say for sure but it looks like CB West won the meet with what looks like their JV squad. Gillespie-Sickamn got the win for Harriton. A new name to watch with districts and state qualifying spots emerging. He and Ebby and have been a nice 1-2. 

Knoch, a AA squad from D7 gets an impressive win. They are a really strong team in the competive D7 AA. Sacred Heart and Sewickley tie and Will Loevner returns, flying solo. The D7 A race is a complete toss up although I think right now WT may not have the depth to grab a spot. They have a killer top 3 though.

Baldwin and Pitts CC still hanging around, but not showing signs they can beat North Hills as far as I can tell. They do have solid packs, especially considering Baldwin just ran at Mingo and then turned around and raced again.

Simon Smith cruises and Northeast Bradford runs strong behind him. NEB should be in that A state title conversation for sure. I'd argue they are probably clear favorites, although the aforementioned D7 teams have been strong. Smith has quietly had a fantastic season. We will see how he matches up at AA states. Hockenbury has been the favorite all year, but the field behind him has been a bit of a mystery. 

More updates as they come.

The Stretch Run

FYI you can still bet below, the betting closes tonight at 1 am.

Hey there everyone so as you may or may not already know I am in the process of working on complete predictions for all state qualifiers for all districts. I'm also interested in using these predictions to make a series of podcasts on district predictions. I'm pretty sure Sean and Evan will be down to help out but there are 12 districts (probably about 6 of which will need previews) so if you are willing to jump on board and help out I need your help! jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com

Now I'd to bring you my 11 big questions for this home stretch to district season. These are things I'll be on high alert for until we hit show time.

1) I'm really interested to see the NA vs Lebo match up again at Tri States. The Cal course is a place the Lebo team excels at, having dominated the invite there for years. The last time these two squads met Lebo was within striking distance of the Tigers and they seemed to only be improving. Todd Gunz is now developing into a running mate for Baun out front and their pack of Harris, Stone and Brandenstein is solid. But NA has shown strong improvements as well and their 4-5 are looking much stronger than pre states. We will see how realistic a Lebo upset at WPIALs is after these squads meet at Tri States.

2) The District 3 championship race is crazy, as has been thoroughly documented. This weekend will play a big role in sorting out the madness as many of the top teams face each other at Mid Penns. The key for me will be watching the 4-5 runners on Red Land, Carlisle, Hershey and Lower Dauphin. There are some killer top 3s there (particularly Red Land) but the thing that may end up separating these squads is the 4-5 punch. As of right now Twin Valley and Cumberland Valley probably have the deepest teams on paper that I have seen. So if these squads want to knock a team like TV out of the top 5, it's going to take a strong pack effort in addition to some strong front running. McCaskey will be curiously watching from afar.

3) Seriously, who isn't excited for Chesmonts? Henderson v. DTWest has had some serious hype brewing and the teams were about as even as you could get at Carlisle. Yes, I'm interested to see if West can pull the mild upset and break Hendersons hold on the conference and a rivalry is always nice to see, but I'm looking at this race to see the possible district implications. I've crunched the numbers and I honestly feel that after Stoga there is no lock for states (agreeing with one of the commenters out there). Henderson needs to sure up their 5 and continue to show front running improvement from their big 3. DT West needs to show that their 2-3-4-5 are ready for the big stage at districts and ready to help carry the load behind Sappey. I'm thinking Sappey is a top 5-10 guy at districts this year the way he is running, so if you sure up the guys behind him they are in great shape. I expect both teams to make it to states (currently tentatively slotted at 2-3 for districts) but a confidence boosting performance is always nice.

4) The District 1 AA playoff race has quietly been one of the best in the state. Pottsgrove is the two time defending champs, but Holy Ghost prep is breathing down their necks behind Mcloughlin and Lennon. HGPrep is the favorites right now in my mind: they have a solid pack and nice front running. But Pottsgrove has consistently been strong with a state championship and a state runner up performance the past two years. Lopez has been a fantastic front runner to lead on and guys like Underwood have been coming on strong as of late.

The real wild card here is Bishop Shanahan. They gave Pottsgrove plenty of trouble at Pre States and have a nice pack of guys to build around going into districts with Breslin helping lead the way. They could sneak in there and flip the script if they have their day at Lehigh. Remember there is only 1 spot and 3 teams want it. The winner is probably a top 5 team at AA states.

5) CRN and Pennsbury are currently my 5 and 6 teams in the district. But I feel I don't have a strong grasp on eithers ability. What ought to help is the fact that these two squads will square off at their league championship meet soon and some questions can be answered. I'm actually big time on the Pennsbury bandwagon this year. I like Bortman, Wick and Tokar as quality pack guys and I think Sauer is going to have a strong day on the fast Lehigh course. My appreciation for Sam Webb has never really been well hidden. But CRN consistently delivers every year. This meet is usually where they start to show their cards and begin their breakout three week stretch.

Plus Bensalem is at this meet. It's a good chance to see if they are a top 10 team in the district this year. I like their top 3 a lot going forward.

6) If the CRN v Pennsbury matchup gets you excited, then you are going to love the CB West v CB East v North Penn v Hatboro Horsham match up taking place the same day.

Look West is the best team of the bunch in my eyes. My most recent scoring of the district meet, spit out a second place finish for these guys. But they are a young team who still has to solidify their pack at the front of the district meet and Fortna needs to break into the top 15 or so to help them get a front running boost.

But honestly, CB West will mainly be a measuring stick for me to see how good these other squads are. These teams are in the red hot battle for 6-10 at districts, which is going to be a highly thrilling competition (that would mean a bit more if there was a meet of ... Never mind let's not go there). Comber and Brophy match up for the top front runner spot and North Penn will look to showcase their sneaky good top 3 of Collins, Tung and Cooney. You also have to watch guys like Sands, Timm and Irwin who have been solid in recent weeks. I'm very curious which of these teams snatches the momentum heading into the district one championships.

7) I'm going to be doing a little research into the word "bae". It seems affectionate enough but I want to make sure there is no hidden offensiveness in there before I call someone "bae". Because Pharrell is cool.

8) Can North Hills put the lock down on the 3rd spot in district 7? Their top 3 looked fantastic last week, but their 4-5 aren't quite good enough to put hope out of the mind for teams like Pitts CC, Baldwin and Fox Chapel. Pitts has got a developing pack behind star front runner Van Kooten and Fox Chapel's top three is comparable to NH when things are clicking. North Hills can either slip into this group or take a big step towards chomping at the heels of Lebo and NA depending on how their 4-5 race between now at WPIALs.

9) I think LaSalle is a seriously underrated team at this point in the year. They have a killer pack, they just need to get it to the front of the field. I am expecting them to make some impressive strides over the next few weeks so they can peak at wonderfully at states. And they have the perfect stretch run to prove themselves. They get Stoga and then back to back matchups with O'Hara. They have a huge opportunity for a statement.

Also we can use LaSalle as a convenient measuring stick to compare Conestoga and O'Hara, two of the early favorites for the state title.

10) Fun fact, now that the PCL sends two teams, I think they have a shot to send 3.

Wait what?

With 10 individuals going to states and LaSalle and O'Hara not counting towards those individuals, St Joe's Prep needs to sneak 5 or more guys into the top 20-25 spots and they are taking a trip out to Hershey as well. It's possible with Piscano and Fisher leading the way and a hungry pack behind them.

11) Do the A and AA teams race again before WPIALs? I hope so, because I'm lost on predicting who is going to get through to Hershey. The A race is super tight with Avonworth, Sewickley, Winchester Thurston and Sacred Heart (who I currently have ranked in that order) all likely finishing within a few points of each other. AA is going to be tight too with Quaker Valley, West Allegheny, Beaver and Knoch (an underrated squad) among others. It's a really deep race of teams.

And is Dom Perretta still around? Hopefully he's healthy and ready to flip the script on everyone the last month of the season.


Overall this is one of the best years to be a fan. The team title races are all absurd, there is so much still left to be proven and decided. And starting this weekend, things begin to clear up.

So really the only thing left to say is ... Come get it bae.

Let's Gamble

So let's get gambling! Here are some bets I came up with for the weekend. I mixed it both the normal odds type bets with some over under bets and things like that. Basically for these type of bets if you are correct you get double whatever you wager, if you are wrong you lose whatever you wager. As always any questions just let me know.

Also I noticed last time some people made bets that weren't actually on the list so I didn't count them. If you want to make a specific bet that's not on the list, let me know and I'll see if I can give you some odds.

So here we go:
Manhattan (you can see race entries on milesplit)

Conestoga (-40) vs LaSalle

This means I'm predicting Stoga will beat LaSalle by 40 points. If you pick Stoga you are saying more than 40, if you pick LaSalle you are saying less than 40 (which includes LaSalle beating Stoga)

Winning PA team has 5 or more under 13:20 .. 6:1
Marston Overall Eastern States champ 9:2
3 or more PA guys sub 13 (all races) 8:1

Over/under: 12:36 for top PA finisher

DELCO

Over/under: 21 points for the winning squad (the under being 20, 19, etc.)

Mid Penn

Individual champ
Brehm 3:1
Green 4:1
Seiger 5:1
Demko 8:1
Weidner 12:1
Milligan 18:1
Field 25:1

Team champ
Cumberland Valley 3:1
Red Land 7:2
Carlisle 8:1
Hershey 10:1
Lower Dauphin 12:1
State College 12:1
Field 40:1

Winner sub 15:50 6:1
3 or more sub 16 8:1

I will also be adding in a bonus prize for this week. If you bet correctly on the winning individual and team at Mid Penns then you get a bonus $75 prize.

Any questions, let me know and I hope you enjoy

A Rise to Power

I first heard about Colin Abert when he was a freshman in high school. One of my college teammates was telling me how good this guy had the potential to be because he was just fearlessly destroying typical freshman PRs and beating quality district 11 names.

I first heard of Sam Webb when he was in 8th grade and dropping impressive mile times. I followed his career carefully since and became a big fan of his heart and toughness.

I first heard of Kevin James when he was a freshman and running some blazing fast times for a very good O'Hara team.

You know the first time I heard of Paul Power? About 10 minutes into last year's pre states fantasy draft.

Now to be fair, I didn't follow cross country last year during my brief retirement from the game. I had decided to enter and see if I could just quickly check a lot of results and still draft a solid team (it didn't work out so well, pretty sure I got crushed).

I drafted Power in something like the 5th round. That's probably 40 picks in or so. Here was a 15:30s guy, top 10 at districts and everybody was just letting him slide. I thought he was injured or something honestly.

He turned out to be a steal, giving me a strong 20th place, maybe the best finish in program history for Spring Ford.

Power got to the Spring Ford Rams in 2011-2012. The team was coming off a 7:50 run in the 4x8 behind Damien Boham and Joesph O'Such and a stunning runner up finish at districts behind CB West (the eventual state champs) and ahead of teams like Abington, Henderson, and CB South.

As a freshman Power ran a strong 4:47 1600m at the PAC championships. He ran with a group of guys hungry to keep their 4x8 legacy growing (and they did, getting back to states).

Perhaps those training partners inspired Power, as he made serious improvements as a sophomore. He broke 16:20 at districts for 5k and went on to run 9:38 for 3200m at districts. The time was very strong, but he ended up buried at 14th amongst all the top notch district one talent.

But Power was unphased by the lack of recognition and continued to show serious improvement. He ran 15:36 for 5k at Lehigh and finished in the medals at states as a Junior.

Despite those XC credentials he got virtually no talk this year. I remember writing that he had to be the most under appreciated guy in the state right before he became quite appreciated ... Dropping a 15:50 at the states course and beating out 3 of the best 10 guys in AAA in the process. And it wasn't a fluke either. He backed it up with a 15:24 at Paul Short where he dueled wonderfully with state champ and national qualifier Griffin Molino.

Power now finds himself in the state title conversation and national conversation. Keep in mind everybody who has run as fast as he has at this state course made nationals before they graduated.

So how did we get here? How did Power get lost in the shuffle of state elite? And should we even be surprised by his fast start this year?

Here's how I see it. Power has been consistently progressing in XC better than probably anybody in the senior class. He's kind of on an Austin Pondel progression right now, every year he just takes another step. From borderline state qualifier to state medalist and now to state title contender.

Plus go back and watch last years state meet. Check the splits, look at pictures and watch for Paul Power. He moves brilliantly through the course and finds himself in position for a top 10 finish with roughly 400m to go. Unfortunately, he gets caught by a slew of guys and ends up 20th. He was just a junior in a big moment he had never been before and his body couldn't quite cooperate. But say he does hold on (and on a different day he probably could have) ,he ends up beating Marston, Comber, Van Kooten, Brehm and maybe even Brophy. Then I bet we look at this guy a little different if he's the #3 returner at states.

Then we consider his track season. He's probably the only big name guy who didn't qualify for states or run a flashy 2 mile this past spring. Why? Well it wasn't a talent issue (he ran 9:38 the previous year and a fast 3k indoors). Unfortunately, he ended up left out of the fast section at Henderson in the 2 mile and underperformed in the slower race, possibly from having to do too much work or possibly just from a mental frustration.

Plus the Spring Ford relays had some real potential. They ran a 10:47 DMR and an 8:05 in April with Power as a key contributor. They tried hard to run fast enough to crack into Penn Relays and Power had to do a lot of speed for a two miler.

Basically his outdoor season was like Jake Brophy's. The difference was Brophy's 4x8 shined and gave Jake an opportunity for a prime time gutsy run that everyone remembered long after states.

As for Power, Spring Ford ended up being built more for a 4x4 than a 4x8 (they ran 3:19) and he was not built for a 4x4 leg. He jumped in the mile with his speed but couldn't quite get the wheels to crack the top 8 in the finals. So he ended up being a non entity at season's end, having sacrificed a chance at low 9:20s in the 32 for some early season Penn Relays dreams.

And that's how I think we overlooked Paul.

But it's clear now, no one will overlook him anymore. Even after his big win, people still had doubts, had to see more. And he delivered with an impressive showing at Paul Short, nearly holding off a 4:12 guy the last half mile.

Plus he has led his squad of youngsters, affectionately called the Power Rangers, to district relevance. They have a slew of freshman but Power has proven to be a strong leader for the crew and the team has a chance at top 10 at districts. And some are saying they could even do more than that.

Only time will tell how this story ends, but one thing is for sure: I'm not getting Paul in the 5th round of the states draft this year.

CB West Has Mass Appeal

So I came up with these during my free time. Enjoy. Feel free to scroll down to the posts below this if you want some authentic analysis.

I have to say this is a fantastic year for names in the state of PA. Sure last year featured Watson and Sherlock Holm on Radnor but I think we can neutralize that simply with a well placed Holm Run. Plus we have Kevin James aka the King of "Leans".

Plus Rock Fortna. There's gotta be a joke there somewhere.

But the past are the teams. We have Pennsbury aka the Sauer Patch Kids. We have the Jaxson 5 over at Malvern Prep. And my personal favorite the Maroon 5 over at Henderson.

(Worth noting here, why doesn't Henderson rock those maroon jerseys more? I think they are my favorite jerseys out of all the PA high school squads. I'd buy a Will Kellar throwback Henderson jersey no doubt)

Galligan's Island over at Springfield Delco is looking to escape obscurity. Spring Ford's Power Rangers are mighty and morphin into a top notch squad.

But the team everyone is chasing this year has got to be the Justice League over at Conestoga. They have the Marston Man Hunter and Cooperman leading the squad. Plus somebody over there can easily be the flash and then they also have Killian Nelson.

Sure Killian Nelson isn't a pun on a super hero name but c'mon, wouldn't you rather have some one in the justice league named Killian Nelson than Wonderwoman or Green Lantern?

Personally though I'm hoping for DT West to pull the upset. Everybody loves a Sappey ending. But Henderson is a real sleeper team if you know what I'm saying. I know Alex Knapp does.

So yeah we Cast Away Wilson. We gave the thumbs down to our Gladiator Russell. But I'd rather be sorted through Griffin's door.

We lost Frank, but at least we kept his Brophy.

So my only question for you is, when it comes to this season what's not to Loevner?

7 More Thoughts

For those of you wondering, there were other meets besides Paul Short this weekend. So this ones not to get confused. This one's for you ....

#1 NA is making some improvements to their pack. No McGoey or Seel this weekend and they still handled things pretty easy this weekend against the best non Lebo teams in the district. Now we can debate how good those teams really are, but the fact remains Wharrey is running like a state medalist and despite North Hills putting 3 in the top 10, NA was able to hold them off. They had their 2-3 (Stupak and Miggliozzi) in front of a quality runner in Tanner Quiggle and another guy at 18th overall. Those guys were solid 2-3s in the meet, but would be this teams 4-5 with McGoey and Seel in the line up. This team is still a serious state title contender, not quite Stoga good, but they are built to win at states a little better than Stoga honestly. Should be fun to watch.

#2 Are we underestimating the D7 battle for the third spot? Look North Hills was quite good this weekend led by a big step up by Killian McNally who was 5th this weekend, but I'm not convinced that Pitts CC, Baldwin or Fox Chapel is out. I mentioned Baldwin at the beginning of the season as a sleeper so I can't give up on them yet. They are improving each week. Pitts CC has a guy who may end up district champ and that kinda low stick is big. That being said North Hills top 3 are very good. Heinauer is really solid, potential state medalist, and McNally could be one of those guys who comes on big time during the stretch run. Everybody is chasing Hills, but maybe they can be climbed in the standings before November hits.

Oooo I like that line.

#3 I'm not sure I've mentioned this but the district 3 meet is going to be Bananas of the Gwen Stefani variety. Carlisle made sure everybody knew they weren't finished this weekend but running impressive across the hills in Delaware at Salesianum. Brehm killed it with his 16:38 on the very difficult course. DeAngelo continued to run solid and Wisner bounced back strong with a 9th place finish within a second of Josh Smith. Carlisle is continuing to improve it's pack as well. Red Land, CV and Carlisle had strong performances this weekend to put them as favorites to go through to states, but there are plenty of teams chomping at their heels.

#4 As far as I can tell everybody thinks districts in district 1 is Stoga, Henderson, DT West and CB West in some order and then CR and Pennsbury fighting for the final spot. I'm thinking a version of the same thing. I agree that those 6 teams are the only squads I could realistically see making states.

But is there a chance anyone else breaks through? North Penn had a reasonably solid showing at Salesianum. They have had strong races by Cooney, Tung and now Collins this season, just not all at the same time. If they all click by districts that's a nice top 3.

Horsham straight up dominated the non championship race with Comber doing the main straight up dominating with his first place 16:44. Wowzers. Is Comber going to see real competition before Leagues? No offense but in invites he's been dominate. When he finally gets to leagues I hope he is ready for a duel with Brophy. That has important team implications because CB East, North Penn and Horsham will all be competing to prove they are the primary non big 6 team. And they will be against CB West so we can see just how close to the top 6 they are.

Spring Ford averaged 16:37 with 4 frosh and a soph in their top 8. And Power is pretty good for those of you who have been buried under a rock. The Power Rangers are one of my sleeper teams in District One.

#5
So just found out Gabe Allgayer not only has an awesome accent, but he is also an independent league guy. Interesting. So the Malvern Prep boys, the GFS top 3, Allgayer, Ritz and Szuhaj will all be toeing the line together at their state champs? Very interesting. Allgayer has been improving like a mad man this year and 15:50 in a winning effort is killer. I've mentioned him in passing for the past couple weeks but now it's time to mention him in the following question: Can Allgayer win the Independent League championship? Right now I don't think he's quite as good as Hoey, McDevitt, Ritz or Dahl (and maybe even little Hoey regardless of this past weekend). We have a solid couple weeks before we have to seriously consider this question, but keep Allgayer on your radar. He's heading in the right direction at the very least.

#6
Wait did I just make it through 5 thoughts (including a thought about how awesome the independent league championships could be) and not once mention the meet of champs?! Plus I haven't been using my awesome just a thought catchphrase at the end of all my thoughts! And wait RJJL was at Paul Short and I didn't track him (or potentially her I suppose we don't know) down and introduce myself?

Goodness I am off my game, but that's what happens when you wake up at 5:15 this morning.

And so you don't get mad about me cheating you out of a thought right now I'll give you one.

Colin Abert is really good. Pretty clever stuff right?

Yeah screw it, I'm going back to bed.

#7
Easton vs Parkland Dual this week. Altoona vs State college dual this week. Henderson XC invite this week which could mean DTW against WCH again. That's some interesting mid week action. Then we have the always interesting 86 different races at Manhattan.

Is going to be tricky to make some odds for this week. But I need to because I'm in about a $5,000 hole right now.

Suggestions for meets to put odds on encouraged. I'm gonna need some team lists/starting box info probably too. I'll search penntrack this week.

Public Service Announcement

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-eWv1L8cVyJdzBfUGRWSVdOeDg/edit?usp=docslist_api

Hey guys the above link is information the Henderson 2 Mile that has now become a tradition between states and regionals. It's a great meet and something great to keep you motivated during the long lay off. There is going to be top talent (Henderson, Conestoga, the Hoeys, and hopefully more) and a race under the lights always has magic potential.

I feel like my top fitness at 2 miles was probably during cross country. I did a couple mile time trials at the end of cross and got near my PR. Plus I did a 3k a couple times at the beginning of cross and set PRs. So if you want to take advantage of your fitness or get a big time 2 mile to impress college coaches, this is a great opportunity.

For the record I think lots of people from PA should do footlocker and NXN. If you are a young guy or team you are going to want the experience (e.g. DT West and CB West). Footlocker regionals is just a really cool experience that you don't want to miss out on. And you never know if you will have a magic day and make nationals. I always wanted to run in one of the individual class races like the Senior race, just for the experience (I was nowhere near good enough to race in the championship race).

So I encourage everyone to check out the link above and consider this opportunity.

Paul Short Recap

(Fair warning, this is a long one)

I'm back in PA for my brother's birthday this weekend and I was fortunate enough to have some free time to go up to Lehigh and see a lot of my friends race at a fantastic meet, the Paul Short Invitational. At these meets, I just kinda feel at home, especially when I can hang out with some great pals. It's also just fun to be around other runners. I caught up with Jack Huemmler and Ned Willig, a couple real nice, real smart state champs from Ivy League schools. Jack introduced me to one of his old teammates (Greg Kotchick, I believe it was) first as Jarrett Felix (a polite hello) and then as etrain (a much more enthusiastic hello). I love it. I will always be more recognizable as etrain than Jarrett Felix and you know what, I'm cool with that.

I was fortunate enough to see some nice PRs for my friends in the 8k. One of my friends broke 28 minutes time, another broke 27 for the first time. There's something special about minute barriers. 4 minutes in the mile. 2 minutes in the 800m. 15 minutes in the 5k.

Which brings me to the historic moment that I was able to witness (sort of) this weekend. The sub 15 hype was buzzing around this weekend and most people were skeptical (including myself). I did keep throwing it out there though. I knew there was one guy out there who had it as a dream and wasn't afraid to try and make it a reality.

Colin Abert ran 14:55 today at Lehigh in dominating fashion against 3 other guys who were considered the remaining members of the best top 4 guys in the state. Truly stunning performance. From the gun Abert was after it, he was way out in front at the mile, coming through in 4:45. I was just before 2 miles and he passed me around 9:50 or so. He looked like he was starting to break down at this point. Nobody was really that close behind him, but his form just looked like it was breaking ever so slightly and he looked slower than he looked when he flew the first mile. I thought there was a chance he'd get caught. A slim chance, but a chance. The next time I saw him, about 400m from the finish, I was cheering for him to break 15. I knew he would be close (he passed me around 13:50ish or so) but I decided it made more sense to watch the race from 400m out and then look at the results afterwards. That way I could piece together ,more of the whole story. So I sacrificed watching a man break the tape sub 15, something that has only happened 3 times and never at Paul Short while I've been around. It was unreal. Abert is really good this year. By the way, this is another meet record for PA. You've got Power, Brehm and Abert plus you have Hoey and Marston right there for their course records. That's really cool. It's an historic year and I hope I can make it out to states this year to see how it ends.

So because I had the luxury of being there, I'll try to give you a brief breakdown of what I saw. First of all, the rain ended up being a bit over hyped. There was a brief down pour while I was driving up at 9 am, but it made things damp, not horribly muddy. I ran on the course after the White Race, cooling down with some old teammates and things weren't in horrible shape. Look it was still a little sloppy, but things could have been a lot worse. And the weather was pretty reasonable. If anything it was a tad hot.

I stood at the start line and Twin Valley got out pretty hard the first 200m, I noticed them most. That was really all I could pick out of the brief start, then I was off to the mile marker. I stood next to some Malvern Prep people and listened to their conversation. I saw the pack of runners moving up towards the turn to the mile and it took me a second or two to realize that Abert was way out in front. It felt like way more than the 5 seconds or so that it says online while I was watching. After Abert it was a gap back to Molino, Hoey and Jack Jibb (from out of state Monore-Woodbury). After that I noticed that Josh Hoey got out pretty hard as well. He was in that next pack. I also was surprised to see Lapsansky run reasonably level headed. I thought he would be cut from the same mold as Abert and crush it out of the gate, but he ended up running a smart 4:59 first mile. I didn't even notice Power it was in the pack but not over extending himself.

I ran off to two miles after about 5:15 or so was on the clock and got in good position. I didn't notice the course being too torn up, despite all the races. I felt like it was in pretty good shape for the most part. Abert was still crushing it at this point, as mentioned. He looked tiring, the weakest I saw him probably. That's kinda the way Abert runs. If someone is going to beat him it's going to have to be that second mile because that is where he tends to fall asleep a bit. But even his "falling asleep" is obviously quite good. Then Power was making a nice move around this point. He looked pretty good and looked like a safe bet for second at this point. If anyone was going to catch Abert, it was probably going to be Power just turning on the jets. I remember also that I noticed the Cumberland Valley guys were making a nice move. Yahya had a huge bounce back from last week and that was huge for Cumby. The Hershey dudes were really up there too. Demko killed it today and made me quite wrong with  my prediction.

Then I was going to try and run to the finish, but ran into Jack. I watched from the 400m mark and figured I'd check the results to fill in the blanks. After Abert zoomed by Power was in second by a bit over Molino. Molino must have put on a nice kick to jump up ahead of him. Jaxson looked pretty tired, he looked a bit like he was about to fall again at this point and I was hoping he was going to be ok to get to the line. The CV boys continued to roll, I noticed also that Fitch from Liberty was having a great race.

Those were kind of memories from the race, but it all went by pretty fast.

When I checked the results at a gas station on the way home, I had a few more takeaways. First off obviously was the whole Abert officially sub 15 thing. Simply amazing stuff. This was a big day for Power. He may not have beat out Molino (who had a very strong day, 15:18 is nothing to sniff at), but he proved he is a top level guy and pre states was no fluke. I also realized that Abert going for it from the gun really draged this field to fast times. The weather holding up helped too. By my count 14 PA guys sub 16 with another 1 in the White Race (Allgayer killed it! Missed that race unfortunately, had to make dinner with my mom).

Matt Kravitz had a fantastic race to grab 15:39. I was calling him for a big day, but I wasn't expecting anything quite like this. He's a serious medal contender at states now. Demko and Sponaugle both broke 16 which was big for Hershey who looked quite good finishing 4th out of PA teams, 18 back from Easton. Demko ran really great with his 15:40. Dahl ran a really solid 15:41 and although it didn't live up to my expectations (which clearly proved to be bold) it was still a fantastic race for the sophomore (top soph in the race). Real nice race for Simon Smith as well in 15:43, he exceeded my expectations.

In the team race, Malvern Prep showed some nice depth through 5 with 5 guys under 16:30. There is a bit of a drop off to the 6-7 which is a little scary because you have to stay healthy and everybody needs to be racing at the top of their game. But you only need 5 guys, that's all that score and this isn't a dual meet where displacing means much. Josh could be sub 16 in a more controlled race and McDevitt looks really good so far this season. Underrated good.

Cumberland Valley had a great day with a big bounce back from Carlilse, beating out Easton, Hershey, Twin Valley and Parkland. The front part of their pack moved up thanks to a step up from Soliman that helped Wasko break through. And I think they have other guys who could step into a starring role from week to week. That's encouraging. Hershey looked great. Just more complicating factors to the already complicated District 3 picture. Twin Valley looked solid as well. If Digiacomo can shrink that spread down to 30 seconds or so, that makes things interesting for those guys. District 3 is madness.

Scranton Prep had a nice showing as well. They aren't quite York Suburban good, but they held their own nicely in this race. As for the District 11 debate, Freedom seems to be missing some guys and unfortunately injuries happen. Quigley and Aplaugh had a great day today, but it looks like it's going to come down to Parkland vs. Easton for who gets the title. Easton is really good, top 10 kinda team in the state thanks to their big two out front. They beat Parkland fairly handily today (200 to 339), but I will say that Parkland was less fresh than Easton and they were missing one of their key guys (Kyvelos I believe). Plus I don't think they ran quite as well out front as they did at Carlisle. Geiger was 44th today and I think he can go faster. They had a solid group of 5 all under 17 and the super powerful front running of Easton is a bit neutralized at the smaller District 11 meet and the 4-5 becomes a bit more important. That being said, Easton is built to have a stronger day at states.

Nice race from Liam Conway, the freshman from Owen J (16:10).

In the White race Allgayer's 15:50 was big time. That's a name to remember everybody. What division is Mercersburg? AAA I think? If not, Allgayer has top 5 potential in AA or A no doubt. He beat Degroot-Lutzner who is a stud as well as Gonoude who is super talented and Ben Wilson who I have been a fan of.

Great meet, super glad to be there. Hope I get to see another one soon.

Paul Short Updates

Unofficially Abert won and very fast ... Power second. I was there but didn't catch the finish. Abert went for it hard core. Post updates if you got em.

Edit officially up on runhigh 14:55 for Abert

Horse Racing

Fun fact: Horse Racing is popular. I'd say it's more popular than track and field and certainly more popular than cross country.

I believe one of the primary reasons is gambling! Who doesn't love gambling? (For the record I stole this from Nick Symmonds).

So I have an idea that I think might be fun and feel free to tell me I'm stupid.

I'm thinking we set up a betting league (USING NO REAL MONEY) here on the blog just for fun to add a little spice to the races and incentivize people to get a little more involved.

Here's how I see it working, I post some odds before the big invites. Viewers like you can then comment your bet(s) below and I will keep track of the imaginary money everyone has won over the course of the season. We can then see if you guys as betters can make more money than me as the odds maker.

So it's kinda a you vs me challenge as well.

Here would be a couple ground rules.

1. When you make a bet I would prefer for you to write your name or some type of code name with your bet so that I can keep track of how everyone does. I will take anonymous bets if they are made, but you would get no glory in being correct (I will however count it as lost money for me in the interest of fairness)

2. I will always post odds for "the field". If you bet the field, if anyone wins who isn't one of the people I have explicitly given odds for, you win. It doesn't matter who it is or who you think it will be (although feel free to comment who you think it will be for fun).

3. I just want to establish this won't be real money one more time. Not trying to start an illegal underground gambling ring here. It's just for fun. But because it's not real money and I don't feel like doing complicated math, the min bet is 1 dollar and the max bet is 100.

4. This applies only to PA runners. The top PA runner/team in the field is the winner and the odds only apply to the winner. So hypothetically say Paul Short results were some NJ kid, Abert and then Molino only the people who bet on Abert would get the pay out and no one else would.

If you have any questions let me know. Remember this is just supposed to be fun, if people are offended by this idea, I will pull the plug but I feel like it's pretty much the same as when I make predictions so hopefully no ones feelings get hurt.

Here are the Paul Short odds:
C. Abert 2:1
G. Molino 5:2
Ja. Hoey 3:1
P. Power 4:1
N. Dahl 9:1
B. Szuhaj 15:1
A. Marston 20:1 (I don't think he's coming so I'm giving you good odds here)
The Field 30:1

Malvern Prep 3:2
GFS 8:1
Easton 9:1
Parkland 12:1
Cumberland Valley 12:1
The Field 25:1

Plus some fun prop bets
Winning time under 15:30, 4:1
10 guys sub 16 or more, 12:1
Out of State Finisher in the top 5, 3:1
Out of State Team Champion, 7:1
Sub 15, 30:1

Feel free to bet on as much or as little as you'd like. Give me your feed back on how you feel about this idea as well.

And As my dad says, don't bet on the ponies.

Paul Short Preview

Well ladies and gentleman, it's official October. The weather is cooler, the ground is firmer and fast times are sure to come in the near future.

But probably not this Saturday, as weather reports are predicting an 100% chance of rain. (Side note, how can there be an 100% CHANCE of rain. It's a contradiction in itself. I was really proud of myself when I thought this up 6 months ago).

All the same, we have an incredible field lined up for the Paul Short meet this weekend and a light mist could cool down the course and make for semi ideal conditions. Plus the weatherman has been wrong before so let's not count any chickens before it rains. Or whatever the expression is.

Brown Race

Teams

There are some interesting story lines for the Brown race this weekend, but one of the most interesting is that we almost definitely will not be seeing a 1 vs 2 matchup between Malvern Prep and Conestoga. The interview on milesplit of Marston after McQuaid (great interview by the way, Mars seems like a fun dude) says that Stoga is off this weekend and racing at Manhattan instead. The other big takeaway was I like those black unis, but feel like the classic Stoga jerseys may be my favorite in the end. We will see what happens. It's one of the things I'll be watching most this season.

Another fun takeaway is that Manhattan is a 4k which means still no 5k for the Stoga guys. Not anything to worry about I just find it humorous more so than anything.

So with Stoga out, the Jaxson 5 will look to take over. There isn't another team from PA that should challenge them in my eyes. 

We will see some thrilling district battles. District 11 headlines the show here. Easton, Parkland and Freedom are all ready to prove they deserve a spot to states next month. Easton is the favorite out of the 3 in most peoples eyes because of their two excellent front runners. They also have clearly been aiming to run fast here and seem quite rested. Freedom and Parkland are coming off strong showings at Carlisle.

Freedom struggled a bit at Carlisle because of their injury issues. They had a strong top 3 and Quigley proved he can be a front runner. If they can get Zeigler back and healthy they have two potential top 50 guys at states plus a decent 3-4. That makes them a nice match up for Parkland. Plus the effect of losing their 5 to injury is neutralized a bit at a smaller district meet compared to Paul short and Carilse. Keep that in mind this weekend.

Parkland I see as a real sleeper. They made big improvements from PTXC to DeSales (where they beat Twin Valley) and then Carlisle. Now they will show case a strong top 3 and underrated 4-5 and have a realistic shot at being the #2 PA team at this meet behind Malvern Prep. 

The district 3 madness is beginning to become overly documented on this site so I won't go too in depth about them here. That being said this meet will be a huge chance for Twin Valley, Hershey and GM to see how they stack up against CV at a big invite. I'm thinking Cumberland Valley has a real nice race this weekend and I think it starts with a big day from Owen Seeber. CV lost to Parkland and McCaskey last weekend and had Carlisle breathing down their necks. Now they face a new crowd of state hopefuls. Very intrigued to watch Hershey run this weekend particularly Will Sponaugle. I'm hoping to see Yurchak back for Hempfield as well. I expect Governor Mifflin to have made nice improvements from their early season meet, particularly interested to see how Luckanitz runs on the faster Lehigh course. 

Then there is a GFS squad who has the potential to turn heads. Dahl and Hepp are two guys I see having big days Saturday. No clue how good this squad is so I'm looking forward to their match up with these teams, most of which sit right around the edge of my top 10 (besides Malvern of course). 

From a d1 perspective we will see some intriguing teams in Rustin, Bensalem and Spring Ford. All of these are potential top 10 teams in the loaded district one, and that's a great achievement. Rustin has likely been looking forward to this meet for a long time. This is there first real chance to show their stuff since probably Oakburne. 

Also got Scranton Prep (looking to answer York Suburbans challenge) who could pull a similar style upset in this race and beat out a lot of these AAA squads. And Pottsgrove will be here with Elk Lake, a A state title contender. Pottsgrove will be watching HGPrep carefully in the white race. Same goes for Elk Lake and Holy Cross in District 2.

Individuals 

Here are my top 25 predictions for the race. I'm not gonna throw up times because weather is such an issue but I will see I expect the 2-5 places to all be within a couple seconds. Also I'm going somewhat bold with my predictions here to keep things interesting. So try not to get too worked up over anything. Just looking to have some fun with it.

25. Q. Wasko, CV

24. O. Seeber, CV

23. T. Mays, Bensalem

22. J. Piscano, St. joe's

21. J. Luckanitz, Govenor Mifflin 

Foot speed can really help over the last 1k where lots of these spots will be earned. I like Luckanitz to use his mile speed for a big day. Mays had an under the radar strong race at CRN and I expect his improvement to continue this weekend.

20. C. Holm, Radnor

19. W. Sponaugle, Hershey

18. S. Smith, Towanda

17. H. Geiger, Parkland

16. I. Fisher, St. Joe's

I'm a big fan of both SJ Prep kids this year. Fisher gets the nod here because I think he has a bit better speed and will handle the flat stuff better than Piscano who has been great on hills. Holm is a real wildcard. He actually ran better at states than districts last year and still appeared to be rounding into shape at Carlisle. This will be another big test for him. Spon gets the nod over teammate Aiden Demko because of his mile speed, but Demko is a sleeper pick for this race just outside my top 25.

15. C. Wills, Malvern Prep

14. M. Scarpill, CB South

13. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter

12. M. Kravitz, North Pocono

11. J. Kirshenbaum, Methacton

I see bounce back races on the horizon for Scarpill and Kirshenbaum. I'm a big Scarpill fan for some of his gutsy frosh performances and I think that could carry well to this meet. Kirsh struggled at Hershey but with a week off to recover and remotivate he has major sleeper potential this weekend.

I'm big on Kravitz this weekend. I think he has a real memorable day. I'm glad this isn't a podcast so I don't have to pronounce Ben Szuhaj. 

10. D. Quigley, Freedom

9. Jo. Hoey, Malvern Prep

8. G. Hepp, GFS

7. K. Lapsansky, Easton

6. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep

I like this group a lot. I have to maybe temper my expectations for Josh here, I forget he is somehow just a frosh despite his excellent running. McDevitt has been really strong, finishing only behind top 5-10 guys in the state. I see the same thing this weekend. I see a big day for Hepp as well. I'm all in on the GFS boys this weekend. Like all in, all in. 

5. Ja. Hoey

4. G. Molino

Yes I just put what is possibly PA's best two shots at nationals at 4-5. I'm worried about Jaxson after last weeks falls. I don't buy into any of the over racing stuff because I think that's silly (look at Ross Wilson in outdoor track the last two years and all his hard 2 miles), but I do think mentally he could be shaken from the falls. It's hard to push yourself to the limit after a scary moment like that. I think he needs a race or two to get his confidence back. 

As for Molino, I'm a little nervous about this being his first big test of the year. I'm interested to see how he handles the big dogs. He's traveling the farthest of the top guys and he's the most out of his element. He has the speed and the talent to run well here, but i think in the end he and Hoey get beat out the final 400m.

3. P. Power, Spring Ford

2. N. Dahl, GFS

1. C. Abert, Easton

Abert is going to be most comfortable in his back yard so to speak. He's the most big race ready and he's the freshest. I think he controls this race and really takes over the last mile. That's how Furcht ran so fast here. The last mile he burned everyone big time. 

Abert actually has an underrated ability to close over the final 800m. He did well the last two state meets doing that. He just usually is winning by so much he doesn't get a chance to show his strength. Probably won't be able to dominate this field Saturday so we should see his full range of abilities.

After Abert pulls away I think Molino and Hoey will chase. If this thing is fast from the gun Power and Dahl can jus sit back and ride it out. That's what Power did at Pre States against James and Brophy it appeared. He let them burn themselves out a bit leading the first half. 

For some reason I see Dahl having a huge day. I think he will kick down the last 600 and barely edge out Power for 3rd. This may be premature, but I believe that Dahl is a special talent. This may be too early to call his breakout race coming, but I think this course suits him well as a stud track guy last year. 

Like I said, I'm all in on GFS this weekend.

I've got Malvern Prep, GFS, Easton, CV, Parkland as my top 5 teams, in that order. Good luck Rob Hewitt. No pressure.

Sleeper individuals include Carmody, Mills, Perry, Newman and Fitch.

White Race

Not quite the fire power of the brown race, but I think there are some interesting story lines. I've got a top 5 of 

5. K. Gonoude, Salisbury

4. L. Galligan, Springfield

3. G. Allgayer, Mercersburg Academy

2. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin

1. J. DeGroot-Lutzner, Masterman

JDL has been fantastic this year and I think he should grab another win this weekend. Wilson from CD should give him a good run for his money as a 4:20ish guy with strong speed, but I think JDL's endurance and strength will prevail in the end.

Gonoude has big potential here and I'm really high on him this year. That being said, he hasn't raced enough in big invites to give me confidence he is ready to roll this weekend. Whether Galligan is a soph or a frosh he is still running very strong this year after an under the radar runner up finish to Perlman. I'd say he's a sleeper pick to go out and win the race. Allgayer from Mercersburg has had his own under the radar start to the year with an impressive runner up to Dan Green out at big spring. I'm interested to see if he can do as well on the flats as on the hills. 

Others to watch include O'Reilly from DTEast and Ethan Fadale from Selingsgrove. 

Very excited To see this meet go down. I'll be doing my not rain dance to try and help everybody out. 

Paul Short Preview: Podcast or Post?

Wanted to get a feel for your preferences as readers. Which would you prefer? And don't worry you won't hurt my feelings either way. Keep in mind I still haven't gotten a guest for this week so it would be just me talking for the preview.

Let me know in the comments below and based on what you suggest I'll put something together for tonight.